AROW Stock Analysis: Arrow Financial | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 708m USD | 12M Return: 32.7% | US0427441029 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.06M
EPS Trend: 79.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 79.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Arrow Financial Corporation is a bank holding company headquartered in Glens Falls, New York, operating since 1851. The company delivers a full suite of commercial and consumer banking services, including demand, savings, and time deposits, alongside a diverse lending portfolio spanning commercial loans, commercial real estate and construction financing, consumer installment and automobile loans, as well as residential mortgages and home equity products. Beyond core banking, Arrow Financial offers fee-based services such as retirement and estate planning, trust administration, employee benefit plan management, and insurance agency services covering group health, life, and property and casualty coverage. As a regional bank holding company listed on NASDAQ under the ticker AROW, it follows the community banking model typical of its GICS sub-industry, combining traditional deposit gathering and lending with wealth management and insurance services to diversify revenue streams within its local market footprint.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed rate cuts pressure yields
- Commercial real estate loan portfolio poses credit risk in downturn
- Deposit costs rise amid regional bank funding competition
| Net Income: 51.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.33 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.86k% < 20% (prev -1.40k%; Δ -460.7% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 52.0m > Net Income 51.3m |
| Net Debt (309.1m) to EBITDA (37.1m): 8.33 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (16.4m) vs 12m ago -0.68% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 63.64% > 18% (prev 61.03%; Δ 2.62% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.76% > 50% (prev 5.21%; Δ -0.45% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.46 > 6 (EBIT TTM 34.3m / Interest Expense TTM 74.3m) |
| A: -0.88 (Total Current Assets 30.9m - Total Current Liabilities 3.97b) / Total Assets 4.48b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 116.8m / Total Assets 4.48b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 34.3m / Avg Total Assets 4.45b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 446.3m / Total Liabilities 4.04b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.51 = D |
As of September 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 37.46 with a total of 61,297 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.48%, over one month by -2.30%, over three months by -3.38% and over the past year by +32.70%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 35.10 (which is 6.3% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
Arrow Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AROW.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 43.5 | 16.1% |
P/E Trailing = 12.5377
P/E Forward = 13.0039
P/S = 4.1627
P/B = 1.6116
P/EG = 2.8438
Revenue TTM = 211.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 34.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 37.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 330.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 310.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 340.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.89m
Net Debt = 309.1m USD (calculated: Debt 340.0m - CCE 30.9m)
Enterprise Value = 1.02b USD (708.3m + Debt 340.0m - CCE 30.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.46 (Ebit TTM 34.3m / Interest Expense TTM 74.3m)
EV/FCF = 22.79x (Enterprise Value 1.02b / FCF TTM 44.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.39% (FCF TTM 44.6m / Enterprise Value 1.02b)
FCF Margin = 21.07% (FCF TTM 44.6m / Revenue TTM 211.9m)
Net Margin = 24.21% (Net Income TTM 51.3m / Revenue TTM 211.9m)
Gross Margin = 63.64% ((Revenue TTM 211.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 77.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.86% (prev 70.82%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.23 (Enterprise Value 1.02b / Total Assets 4.48b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 21.85% (Interest Expense 74.3m / Debt 340.0m)
Taxrate = 20.61% (13.3m / 64.6m)
NOPAT = 27.2m (EBIT 34.3m * (1 - 20.61%))
Current Ratio = 0.01 (Total Current Assets 30.9m / Total Current Liabilities 3.97b)
Debt / Equity = 0.76 (Debt 340.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 446.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.33 (Net Debt 309.1m / EBITDA 37.1m)
Debt / FCF = 6.92 (Net Debt 309.1m / FCF TTM 44.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 434.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.15% (Net Income 51.3m / Total Assets 4.48b)
RoE = 11.82% (Net Income TTM 51.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 434.0m)
RoCE = 4.49% (EBIT 34.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 434.0m + L.T.Debt 330.2m))
RoIC = 3.33% (NOPAT 27.2m / Invested Capital 816.6m)
WACC = 10.59% (E(708.3m)/V(1.05b) * Re(7.35%) + D(340.0m)/V(1.05b) * Rd(21.85%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -93.30 | Cagr: -1.14%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.07% ; FCFF base≈38.5m ; Y1≈44.1m ; Y5≈64.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 21.07 (EV 699.5m - Net Debt 309.1m = Equity 390.4m / Shares 18.5m; r=10.59% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 79.82 | EPS CAGR: 20.27% | SUE: -2.04 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 79.63 | Revenue CAGR: 10.28% | SUE: -0.78 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.94 | Chg30d=+0.18% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.51 | Chg30d=-0.12% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+28.0% | GrowthRev=+24.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.31 | Chg30d=+0.33% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+22.6% | GrowthRev=+16.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -55% (up=1, down=7)