ARVN Stock Analysis: Arvinas | NASDAQ

Biotechnology | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 562m USD | 12M Return: 8.2% | US04335A1051 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Oncology, Neuroscience, Breast Cancer, Prostate Cancer
Total Rating 25
Safety 22
Buy Signal -0.47
Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: -10.0
Market Cap: 562M
Avg Turnover: 5.41M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility57.3%
VaR 5th Pctl9.38%
VaR vs Median-0.73%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.34
Rel. Str. IBD20.6
Rel. Str. Peer Group25.6
Character TTM
Beta1.609
Beta Downside2.539
Hurst Exponent0.512
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD88.40%
CAGR/Max DD-0.34
CAGR/Mean DD-0.50
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ARVN over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": -0.94, "2021-12": -1, "2022-03": -1.2, "2022-06": -1.32, "2022-09": -1.24, "2022-12": -1.56, "2023-03": -1.54, "2023-06": -1.25, "2023-09": -1.18, "2023-12": -2.53, "2024-03": -0.97, "2024-06": -0.49, "2024-09": -0.68, "2024-12": -0.63, "2025-03": 1.14, "2025-06": -0.84, "2025-09": -0.48, "2025-12": -1.1, "2026-03": -0.9, "2026-06": 2.58,
Last SUE: 3.67
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of ARVN over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 9.3, 2021-12: 26.3, 2022-03: 26.5, 2022-06: 33.8, 2022-09: 33.2, 2022-12: 38, 2023-03: 32.5, 2023-06: 54.5, 2023-09: 34.6, 2023-12: -43.1, 2024-03: 25.3, 2024-06: 76.5, 2024-09: 102.4, 2024-12: 59.2, 2025-03: 188.8, 2025-06: 22.4, 2025-09: 41.9, 2025-12: 9.5, 2026-03: 15.6, 2026-06: 249.7,
Rev. CAGR: 45.63%
Rev. Trend: 51.9%
Last SUE: 3.47
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 7.8 years of data

Jan +2.8% 10
Feb -1.2% 9
Mar -10.4% 57
Apr +1.4% 6
May -12.0% 29
Jun +4.6% 25
Jul +3.4% 26
Aug -8.7% 19
Sep -5.8% 21
Oct +0.5% 11
Nov +21.1% 24
Dec +0.9% 6

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ARVN Arvinas

Arvinas, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARVN) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company headquartered in New Haven, Connecticut, founded in 2013 and listed on NASDAQ since September 2018. The company focuses on developing therapies based on its proprietary PROTAC (proteolysis targeting chimera) platform, a modality that harnesses the bodys ubiquitin-proteasome system to selectively degrade disease-causing proteins, rather than merely inhibiting their activity as traditional small molecules do.

Arvinas clinical pipeline spans oncology and neurodegenerative diseases, including ARV-102 (LRRK2) for Parkinsons disease and progressive supranuclear palsy, ARV-806 (KRAS G12D) for pancreatic, colorectal, and non-small cell lung cancers, ARV-393 (BCL6) for relapsed/refractory non-Hodgkin lymphoma, ARV-027 (polyglutamine-expanded androgen receptor) for muscle disorders, and vepdegestrant (estrogen receptor) for ER+/HER2- breast cancer. The company is also advancing bavdegalutamide (ARV-110) and luxdegalutamide (ARV-766) for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. As a clinical-stage biotech without approved products, Arvinas relies on collaborations with major pharmaceutical partners, including Pfizer, Genentech/Roche, Bayer, and Carrick Therapeutics, to fund development and advance candidates through clinical milestones.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Vepdegestrant Phase 3 breast cancer data approaches
  • Pfizer and Bayer milestone payments offset cash burn
  • PROTAC pipeline expansion raises operating expense outlook
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.0
Net Income: 9.30m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.31 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 12.95 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 179.9% < 20% (prev 196.3%; Δ -16.39% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.31 > 3% & CFO -207.0m > Net Income 9.30m
Current Ratio: 7.91 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (65.7m) vs 12m ago -10.0% < -2%
Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin)
Asset Turnover: 39.98% > 50% (prev 41.00%; Δ -1.02% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM)
Altman Z'' 3.51
A: 0.84 (Total Current Assets 652.2m - Total Current Liabilities 82.5m) / Total Assets 675.1m
B: -2.22 (Retained Earnings -1.50b / Total Assets 675.1m)
C: -0.00 (EBIT TTM -900k / Avg Total Assets 792.2m)
D: 4.98 (Book Value of Equity 562.2m / Total Liabilities 112.9m)
Altman-Z'' = 3.51 = A
Beneish M -0.12
DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 54.3m/11.1m, Revenue 316.7m/372.8m)
GMI: 1.00 (GM 98.23% / 98.36%)
AQI: 3.24 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.00)
SGI: 0.85 (Revenue 316.7m / 372.8m)
TATA: 0.32 (NI 9.30m - CFO -207.0m) / TA 675.1m)
Beneish M = -0.12 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of ARVN shares?

As of September 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.45 with a total of 908,535 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -9.24%, over one month by -6.01%, over three months by +19.18% and over the past year by +8.19%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.80 (which is 7.7% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).

Is ARVN a buy, sell or hold?

Arvinas has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.05. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARVN.

  • StrongBuy: 9
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 8
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ARVN price?
Analysts Target Price 13.9 64.9%
Arvinas (ARVN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 12 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 562.0m (562.0m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 33.5
P/E Forward = 17.8571
P/S = 1.7983
P/B = 1.019
Revenue TTM = 316.7m USD
EBIT TTM = -900k USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.90m USD
Long Term Debt = 300k USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.10m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.70m
Net Debt = -552.0m USD (calculated: Debt 15.9m - CCE 567.9m)
Enterprise Value = 9.98m USD (562.0m + Debt 15.9m - CCE 567.9m)
 Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -900k / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
 EV/FCF = -0.05x (Enterprise Value 9.98m / FCF TTM -208.8m)
 FCF Yield = -2.09k% (FCF TTM -208.8m / Enterprise Value 9.98m)
 FCF Margin = -65.93% (FCF TTM -208.8m / Revenue TTM 316.7m)
Net Margin = 2.94% (Net Income TTM 9.30m / Revenue TTM 316.7m)
 Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 316.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.20m) / Revenue TTM)
 Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.01 (Enterprise Value 9.98m / Total Assets 675.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 15.9m)
Taxrate = 7.92% (800k / 10.1m)
NOPAT = -829k (EBIT -900k * (1 - 7.92%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 7.91 (Total Current Assets 652.2m / Total Current Liabilities 82.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 15.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 562.2m)
 Debt / EBITDA = -190.3 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt -552.0m / EBITDA 2.90m)
 Debt / FCF = 2.64 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -552.0m / FCF TTM -208.8m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 486.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.17% (Net Income 9.30m / Total Assets 675.1m)
RoE = 1.91% (Net Income TTM 9.30m / Total Stockholder Equity 486.8m)
RoCE = -0.18% (EBIT -900k / Capital Employed (Equity 486.8m + L.T.Debt 300k))
 RoIC = -0.14% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -829k / Invested Capital 578.9m)
 WACC = 11.32% (E(562.0m)/V(577.9m) * Re(11.64%) + D(15.9m)/V(577.9m) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.08)))
Discount Rate = 11.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -71.53 | Cagr: -3.81%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -208.8m)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 3.67 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 51.94 | Revenue CAGR: 45.63% | SUE: 3.47 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.94 | Chg30d=-16.61% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.10 | Chg30d=+96.51% | Revisions=+77% | GrowthEPS=+91.3% | GrowthRev=+12.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-3.08 | Chg30d=+7.62% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-2997.0% | GrowthRev=-78.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +30% (up=20, down=10)