(ASML) ASML Holding - Ratings and Ratios
Lithography Systems, Metrology Systems, Inspection Systems, Software, Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.70% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.76% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 23.84% |
| Payout Consistency | 84.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 30.4% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 40.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 61.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.59% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.28 |
| Alpha | 36.46 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.48 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.416 |
| Beta | 1.357 |
| Beta Downside | 1.270 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 45.48% |
| Mean DD | 16.79% |
| Median DD | 12.58% |
Description: ASML ASML Holding October 08, 2025
ASML Holding N.V. designs, manufactures, markets, and services advanced lithography equipment that enables semiconductor manufacturers to pattern integrated circuits at ever-smaller geometries. Its core offering spans extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems, deep-ultraviolet (DUV) immersion and dry tools, as well as complementary metrology, inspection, and computational lithography solutions.
The product suite includes EUV scanners that are the only commercially viable machines for sub-5 nm nodes, DUV immersion scanners used for 7 nm-28 nm processes, YieldStar optical metrology tools for wafer-level pattern quality, and HMI electron-beam defect inspection platforms. ASML also provides software for lithography control, system refurbishment, and full-service customer support.
Headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, ASML operates globally across Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, the broader Asian region, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company originated as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. in 1984 and rebranded to ASML in 2001.
Key quantitative signals (FY 2023): revenue of €21.5 billion, a 20 % YoY increase driven largely by EUV shipments; EUV market share above 90 % for high-volume manufacturing; and R&D spend of €2.6 billion (~12 % of revenue), underscoring its moat in photolithography innovation. Macro-level drivers include the industry-wide transition to 3 nm and upcoming 2 nm nodes, which lock in multi-year capital-expenditure cycles for chipmakers, and the broader semiconductor supply-chain resurgence post-COVID-19.
For a deeper, data-rich dive into ASML’s valuation sensitivities and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a structured framework that can help you quantify upside and downside risks.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0
| Net Income (9.85b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.93b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.21 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 14.28pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 18.38% (prev 33.66%; Δ -15.28pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.26 (>3.0%) and CFO 11.88b > Net Income 9.85b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-2.42b) to EBITDA (13.25b) ratio: -0.18 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.31 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (387.6m) change vs 12m ago -1.52% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 52.44% (prev 51.15%; Δ 1.30pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 74.20% (prev 62.87%; Δ 11.33pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 954.1 (EBITDA TTM 13.25b / Interest Expense TTM 12.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.54
| (A) 0.13 = (Total Current Assets 25.15b - Total Current Liabilities 19.22b) / Total Assets 45.10b |
| (B) 0.32 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 14.41b / Total Assets 45.10b |
| (C) 0.28 = EBIT TTM 12.12b / Avg Total Assets 43.41b |
| (D) 0.73 = Book Value of Equity 18.99b / Total Liabilities 26.10b |
| Total Rating: 4.54 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 91.14
| 1. Piotroski 9.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.83% |
| 3. FCF Margin 29.32% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.14 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.18 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 109.7)% |
| 7. RoE 54.27% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 75.22% |
| 9. EPS Trend 55.18% |
What is the price of ASML shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.67%, over one month by +0.89%, over three months by +39.09% and over the past year by +55.86%.
Is ASML a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 22
- Buy: 8
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the ASML price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 1010 | -4.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 1010 | -4.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1259.4 | 18.8% |
ASML Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025
P/E Trailing = 35.719
P/E Forward = 33.8983
P/S = 12.0987
P/B = 17.9476
P/EG = 1.9896
Beta = 1.355
Revenue TTM = 32.21b EUR
EBIT TTM = 12.12b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 13.25b EUR
Long Term Debt = 2.70b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.08b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 2.70b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -2.42b EUR (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 333.87b EUR (336.29b + Debt 2.70b - CCE 5.13b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 954.1 (Ebit TTM 12.12b / Interest Expense TTM 12.7m)
FCF Yield = 2.83% (FCF TTM 9.45b / Enterprise Value 333.87b)
FCF Margin = 29.32% (FCF TTM 9.45b / Revenue TTM 32.21b)
Net Margin = 30.58% (Net Income TTM 9.85b / Revenue TTM 32.21b)
Gross Margin = 52.44% ((Revenue TTM 32.21b - Cost of Revenue TTM 15.32b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.63% (prev 52.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 7.40 (Enterprise Value 333.87b / Total Assets 45.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.47% (Interest Expense 12.7m / Debt 2.70b)
Taxrate = 17.23% (442.2m / 2.57b)
NOPAT = 10.03b (EBIT 12.12b * (1 - 17.23%))
Current Ratio = 1.31 (Total Current Assets 25.15b / Total Current Liabilities 19.22b)
Debt / Equity = 0.14 (Debt 2.70b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.99b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.18 (Net Debt -2.42b / EBITDA 13.25b)
Debt / FCF = -0.26 (Net Debt -2.42b / FCF TTM 9.45b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.15b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 21.84% (Net Income 9.85b / Total Assets 45.10b)
RoE = 54.27% (Net Income TTM 9.85b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.15b)
RoCE = 58.11% (EBIT 12.12b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.15b + L.T.Debt 2.70b))
RoIC = 120.7% (NOPAT 10.03b / Invested Capital 8.31b)
WACC = 10.93% (E(336.29b)/V(339.00b) * Re(11.01%) + D(2.70b)/V(339.00b) * Rd(0.47%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 11.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.79%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.98% ; FCFE base≈6.78b ; Y1≈4.91b ; Y5≈2.74b
Fair Price DCF = 88.17 (DCF Value 34.22b / Shares Outstanding 388.1m; 5y FCF grow -32.47% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 55.18 | EPS CAGR: 2.47% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 75.22 | Revenue CAGR: 11.57% | SUE: -0.29 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for ASML Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle