ASO Stock Analysis: Academy Sports Outdoors | NASDAQ

Camping Gear, Fishing Equipment, Hunting Supplies, Fitness Equipment

Total Rating 73

Safety 89

Buy Signal 1.85

Other Specialty Retail
Sub-Industry Rotation: +19.3

Market Cap: 4.33B
Avg Turnover: 80.6M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility43.3%

VaR 5^th Pctl6.97%

VaR vs Median-2.38%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio1.07

Rel. Str. IBD93.2

Rel. Str. Peer Group97.2 pctl

Character TTM

Beta1.157

Beta Downside1.250

Hurst Exponent0.462

Choppyness45.4%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD54.17%

CAGR/Max DD0.22

CAGR/Mean DD0.45

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -6.15%
EPS Trend: -76.0%

Last SUE: 1.04
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -0.14%
Rev. Trend: -8.2%

Last SUE: -0.16
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Supp Ema8

Rs Leader

Idiosyncratic Leader

Tailwind

Pullback 52w

Seasonality 6.1 years of data, until 10/2026

Jan -3.8% 0

Feb -1.8% 5

Mar -1.7% 0

Apr -4.8% 22

May -1.7% 0

Jun +3.7% 5

Jul +7.2% 5

Aug -1.6% 0

Sep -7.9% 5

Oct -0.0% 0

Nov +4.5% 5

Dec +8.5% 22

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.

Description: ASO Academy Sports Outdoors

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASO) is a U.S.-based sporting goods and outdoor recreational retailer headquartered in Katy, Texas, and founded in 1938. The company went public in October 2020 and operates within the Consumer Discretionary sector, specifically in the Other Specialty Retail sub-industry, with a mid-cap market capitalization of roughly $3 billion.

The business is organized into four merchandising divisions: outdoors (camping, fishing, and hunting products, including firearms and ammunition), sports and recreation (fitness equipment, team sports, patio, and wheeled goods), apparel (outdoor, athletic, licensed team, and seasonal wear), and footwear (athletic, casual, work, western, and hunting boots). This category structure reflects a broad, value-oriented assortment designed to serve both casual consumers and outdoor enthusiasts.

Academy sells products across both its flagship Academy Sports + Outdoors banner and a portfolio of owned brands, including Magellan Outdoors, BCG, Orageous, Game Winner, Outdoor Gourmet, Freely, R.O.W., Redfield, and H2OX. The mix of national brands alongside a growing portfolio of private-label labels is a common strategy among large-scale sporting goods retailers, helping differentiate assortments and support margin.

Founded in 1938, the company has grown into a multi-billion-dollar omnichannel retailer combining brick-and-mortar stores with e-commerce. The sporting goods and outdoor recreation retail category is highly competitive, with peers including Dicks Sporting Goods and Bass Pro Shops, while demand can be influenced by consumer discretionary spending, hunting and fishing license trends, and broader outdoor participation rates.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Firearms and ammunition demand sensitive to consumer discretionary spending
Outdoor category seasonal sales drive quarterly comparable growth
Tariff exposure on imported sporting goods pressures product margins
New store expansion and e-commerce growth boost total revenue
Hunting license trends and weather patterns impact category mix

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.5

Net Income: 395.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.48 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 14.26% < 20% (prev 12.96%; Δ 1.30% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 547.8m > Net Income 395.9m
Net Debt (3.15b) to EBITDA (723.5m): 4.35 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.74 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (63.6m) vs 12m ago -6.11% < -2%
Gross Margin: 35.78% > 18% (prev 34.04%; Δ 1.74% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 114.8% > 50% (prev 113.2%; Δ 1.64% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 17.07 > 6 (EBIT TTM 600.6m / Interest Expense TTM 35.2m)

Altman Z'' 3.62

A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 2.07b - Total Current Liabilities 1.19b) / Total Assets 5.51b
B: 0.35 (Retained Earnings 1.92b / Total Assets 5.51b)
C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 600.6m / Avg Total Assets 5.39b)
D: 0.65 (Book Value of Equity 2.18b / Total Liabilities 3.33b)
Altman-Z'' = 3.62 = AA

Beneish M -2.94

DSRI: 1.15 (Receivables 23.0m/19.2m, Revenue 6.19b/5.97b)
GMI: 0.95 (GM 34.04% / 35.78%)
AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.28)
SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 6.19b / 5.97b)
TATA: -0.03 (NI 395.9m - CFO 547.8m) / TA 5.51b)
Beneish M = -2.94 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of ASO shares?

As of November 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 67.59 with a total of 800,586 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.48%, over one month by +23.11%, over three months by +38.55% and over the past year by +52.78%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 64.40 (which is 4.7% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is ASO a buy, sell or hold?

Academy Sports Outdoors has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.95. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ASO.

StrongBuy: 9
Buy: 0
Hold: 10
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ASO price?

Analysts Target Price	62.4	-7.7%

Academy Sports Outdoors (ASO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 12 November 2026

Market Cap USD = 4.33b (4.33b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 11.9508
P/E Forward = 10.101
P/S = 0.7001
P/B = 2.0129
P/EG = 0.7215
Revenue TTM = 6.19b USD
EBIT TTM = 600.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 723.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 494.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 134.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.44b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.47b
Net Debt = 3.15b USD (calculated: Debt 3.44b - CCE 298.2m)
Enterprise Value = 7.48b USD (4.33b + Debt 3.44b - CCE 298.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 17.07 (Ebit TTM 600.6m / Interest Expense TTM 35.2m)
EV/FCF = 22.61x (Enterprise Value 7.48b / FCF TTM 330.9m)
FCF Yield = 4.42% (FCF TTM 330.9m / Enterprise Value 7.48b)
FCF Margin = 5.34% (FCF TTM 330.9m / Revenue TTM 6.19b)
Net Margin = 6.39% (Net Income TTM 395.9m / Revenue TTM 6.19b)
Gross Margin = 35.78% ((Revenue TTM 6.19b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.98b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.42% (prev 33.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.36 (Enterprise Value 7.48b / Total Assets 5.51b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.02% (Interest Expense 35.2m / Debt 3.44b)
Taxrate = 21.69% (109.6m / 505.5m)
NOPAT = 470.3m (EBIT 600.6m * (1 - 21.69%))
Current Ratio = 1.74 (Total Current Assets 2.07b / Total Current Liabilities 1.19b)
Debt / Equity = 1.58 (Debt 3.44b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.18b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.35 (Net Debt 3.15b / EBITDA 723.5m)
Debt / FCF = 9.51 (Net Debt 3.15b / FCF TTM 330.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.15b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.34% (Net Income 395.9m / Total Assets 5.51b)
RoE = 18.38% (Net Income TTM 395.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.15b)
RoCE = 22.68% (EBIT 600.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.15b + L.T.Debt 494.2m))
RoIC = 11.32% (NOPAT 470.3m / Invested Capital 4.16b)
WACC = 5.67% (E(4.33b)/V(7.78b) * Re(9.53%) + D(3.44b)/V(7.78b) * Rd(1.02%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 9.53% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.46 | Cagr: -7.53%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈294.0m ; Y1≈337.1m ; Y5≈496.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 70.14 (EV 7.46b - Net Debt 3.15b = Equity 4.32b / Shares 61.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -76.03 | EPS CAGR: -6.15% | SUE: 1.04 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -8.18 | Revenue CAGR: -0.14% | SUE: -0.16 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=1.32 | Chg30d=-0.17% | Revisions=+24% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=6.66 | Chg30d=+0.09% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+15.3% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=7.08 | Chg30d=-0.03% | Revisions=+32% | GrowthEPS=+6.2% | GrowthRev=+4.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +31% (up=22, down=11)