ASO Stock Analysis: Academy Sports Outdoors | NASDAQ
Specialty Retail | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.907m USD | 12M Return: -9.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 84.7M
EPS Trend: -90.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -50.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Academy Sports + Outdoors (ASO) is a U.S.-based specialty retailer of sporting goods and outdoor recreational products, headquartered in Katy, Texas, and operating since 1938. The company organizes its merchandise into four divisions: outdoors (camping, fishing, hunting, and watersports), sports and recreation (fitness, team sports, patio, wheeled goods, and electronics), apparel (outdoor, athletic, licensed team, and workwear), and footwear (athletic, casual, work, western, and hunting). In addition to its flagship Academy Sports + Outdoors banner, the company sells products under several owned brands, including Magellan Outdoors, BCG, Orageous, Game Winner, Outdoor Gourmet, Redfield, and H2OX.
ASO trades on the NASDAQ as a mid-cap stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Retail sub-industry) and went public in October 2020. As a multi-banner sporting goods retailer, the company combines a portfolio of owned private-label brands with national brands, allowing it to offer goods across price points in categories tied to outdoor lifestyle, team sports, fitness, and seasonal recreation.
- Tariff costs on imported goods pressure gross margins
- Consumer discretionary spending weakens amid persistent inflation pressure
- Firearms and ammunition demand fluctuates with hunting season and regulation
- Dicks Sporting Goods and Amazon intensify competition in sporting goods retail
| Net Income: 383.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.85 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.83% < 20% (prev 11.13%; Δ 2.70% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 437.9m > Net Income 383.4m |
| Net Debt (3.08b) to EBITDA (651.5m): 4.73 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.68 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (65.9m) vs 12m ago -3.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.60% > 18% (prev 34.03%; Δ 0.58% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 115.0% > 50% (prev 114.3%; Δ 0.72% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.61 > 6 (EBIT TTM 528.1m / Interest Expense TTM 36.2m) |
| A: 0.15 (Total Current Assets 2.11b - Total Current Liabilities 1.26b) / Total Assets 5.50b |
| B: 0.34 (Retained Earnings 1.87b / Total Assets 5.50b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 528.1m / Avg Total Assets 5.34b) |
| D: 0.63 (Book Value of Equity 2.12b / Total Liabilities 3.38b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.44 = A |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 17.7m/16.9m, Revenue 6.14b/5.92b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 34.03% / 34.60%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 6.14b / 5.92b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 383.4m - CFO 437.9m) / TA 5.50b) |
| Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 46.31 with a total of 939,272 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.20%, over one month by -6.88%, over three months by -17.60% and over the past year by -9.75%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 43.60 (which is 5.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Academy Sports Outdoors has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.95. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ASO.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 60.3 | 30.3% |
P/E Trailing = 8.2827
P/E Forward = 8.2576
P/S = 0.4732
P/B = 1.3987
P/EG = 0.5896
Revenue TTM = 6.14b USD
EBIT TTM = 528.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 651.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 480.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 155.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.42b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.47b
Net Debt = 3.08b USD (calculated: Debt 3.42b - CCE 337.8m)
Enterprise Value = 5.99b USD (2.91b + Debt 3.42b - CCE 337.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.61 (Ebit TTM 528.1m / Interest Expense TTM 36.2m)
EV/FCF = 25.31x (Enterprise Value 5.99b / FCF TTM 236.6m)
FCF Yield = 3.95% (FCF TTM 236.6m / Enterprise Value 5.99b)
FCF Margin = 3.85% (FCF TTM 236.6m / Revenue TTM 6.14b)
Net Margin = 6.24% (Net Income TTM 383.4m / Revenue TTM 6.14b)
Gross Margin = 34.60% ((Revenue TTM 6.14b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.02b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.24% (prev 33.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.09 (Enterprise Value 5.99b / Total Assets 5.50b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.06% (Interest Expense 36.2m / Debt 3.42b)
Taxrate = 22.06% (108.5m / 491.9m)
NOPAT = 411.6m (EBIT 528.1m * (1 - 22.06%))
Current Ratio = 1.68 (Total Current Assets 2.11b / Total Current Liabilities 1.26b)
Debt / Equity = 1.61 (Debt 3.42b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.73 (Net Debt 3.08b / EBITDA 651.5m)
Debt / FCF = 13.02 (Net Debt 3.08b / FCF TTM 236.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.13b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.18% (Net Income 383.4m / Total Assets 5.50b)
RoE = 18.01% (Net Income TTM 383.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.13b)
RoCE = 20.24% (EBIT 528.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.13b + L.T.Debt 480.3m))
RoIC = 10.05% (NOPAT 411.6m / Invested Capital 4.10b)
WACC = 5.74% (E(2.91b)/V(6.33b) * Re(11.51%) + D(3.42b)/V(6.33b) * Rd(1.06%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 11.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.56 | Cagr: -6.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.74% ; FCFF base≈248.7m ; Y1≈225.9m ; Y5≈195.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 0.55 (EV 3.11b - Net Debt 3.08b = Equity 34.0m / Shares 62.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -11.35% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -90.03 | EPS CAGR: -8.13% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -50.87 | Revenue CAGR: -0.86% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=2.10 | Chg30d=+1.25% | Revisions=-6% | Analysts=16
EPS next Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=1.30 | Chg30d=+4.97% | Revisions=+67% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=6.46 | Chg30d=+2.77% | Revisions=+65% | GrowthEPS=+11.8% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=6.99 | Chg30d=+1.37% | Revisions=+42% | GrowthEPS=+8.2% | GrowthRev=+5.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +49% (up=44, down=14)