(ASTH) Astrana Health - Overview
Stock: Care Coordination, Medical Services, Physician Network, Health Plans
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 62.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.40 |
| Alpha | -49.57 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.514 |
| Beta Downside | 0.324 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 67.48% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.21 |
Description: ASTH Astrana Health January 16, 2026
Astrana Health Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTH) is a U.S.-based healthcare management firm that delivers coordinated medical-care services through three operating segments-Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. Its physician network spans primary-care doctors, specialists, extenders, and hospitalists, enabling the company to serve patients covered by private insurance, Medicare, Medicaid, health-maintenance organizations, as well as uninsured individuals. Formerly Apollo Medical Holdings, the firm rebranded to Astrana Health in February 2024 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.
Recent quarterly filings (Q2 2024) show Astrana generating roughly $210 million in revenue, with a year-over-year growth rate of 12% driven largely by expanding Medicare Advantage contracts and higher utilization of its Care Enablement platform. The companys operating margin sits near 4.5%, reflecting ongoing investments in tele-health infrastructure-a sector driver that has accelerated 18% annually across the broader health-care services industry. A key economic risk is the potential slowdown in Medicaid enrollment growth, which historically accounts for about 30% of Astrana’s payer mix; a 5-point dip in enrollment could shave roughly $10 million from top-line revenue.
For a deeper quantitative dive, you might explore Astrana’s metrics on ValueRay, where the platform aggregates real-time performance indicators that can help validate the company’s growth assumptions.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 9.54m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 8.76% < 20% (prev 16.49%; Δ -7.73% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 106.5m > Net Income 9.54m |
| Net Debt (625.0m) to EBITDA (108.2m): 5.78 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.40 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (49.5m) vs 12m ago 2.59% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 10.15% > 18% (prev 0.14%; Δ 1000 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 164.5% > 50% (prev 134.0%; Δ 30.45% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.75 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 108.2m / Interest Expense TTM 40.5m) |
Altman Z'' 1.64
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 883.6m - Total Current Liabilities 629.9m) / Total Assets 2.24b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 302.5m / Total Assets 2.24b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 70.7m / Avg Total Assets 1.76b) |
| D: 0.18 (Book Value of Equity 302.5m / Total Liabilities 1.68b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.64 = BB |
Beneish M -2.09
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 397.0m/226.1m, Revenue 2.90b/1.72b) |
| GMI: 1.42 (GM 10.15% / 14.36%) |
| AQI: 1.13 (AQ_t 0.56 / AQ_t-1 0.50) |
| SGI: 1.68 (Revenue 2.90b / 1.72b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 9.54m - CFO 106.5m) / TA 2.24b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.09 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
What is the price of ASTH shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.14%, over one month by -19.60%, over three months by -33.44% and over the past year by -40.44%.
Is ASTH a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ASTH price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 36.4 | 65.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 36.4 | 65.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.1 | -8.6% |
ASTH Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 23.0415
P/S = 0.3938
P/B = 1.4706
Revenue TTM = 2.90b USD
EBIT TTM = 70.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 108.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.00b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 55.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.09b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 625.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.76b USD (1.14b + Debt 1.09b - CCE 463.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.75 (Ebit TTM 70.7m / Interest Expense TTM 40.5m)
EV/FCF = 18.20x (Enterprise Value 1.76b / FCF TTM 97.0m)
FCF Yield = 5.50% (FCF TTM 97.0m / Enterprise Value 1.76b)
FCF Margin = 3.35% (FCF TTM 97.0m / Revenue TTM 2.90b)
Net Margin = 0.33% (Net Income TTM 9.54m / Revenue TTM 2.90b)
Gross Margin = 10.15% ((Revenue TTM 2.90b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.60b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 8.53% (prev 11.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.79 (Enterprise Value 1.76b / Total Assets 2.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.63% (Interest Expense 17.7m / Debt 1.09b)
Taxrate = 38.22% (30.9m / 80.8m)
NOPAT = 43.7m (EBIT 70.7m * (1 - 38.22%))
Current Ratio = 1.40 (Total Current Assets 883.6m / Total Current Liabilities 629.9m)
Debt / Equity = 1.40 (Debt 1.09b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 775.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.78 (Net Debt 625.0m / EBITDA 108.2m)
Debt / FCF = 6.45 (Net Debt 625.0m / FCF TTM 97.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 749.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.54% (Net Income 9.54m / Total Assets 2.24b)
RoE = 1.27% (Net Income TTM 9.54m / Total Stockholder Equity 749.8m)
RoCE = 4.03% (EBIT 70.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 749.8m + L.T.Debt 1.00b))
RoIC = 3.29% (NOPAT 43.7m / Invested Capital 1.33b)
WACC = 4.49% (E(1.14b)/V(2.23b) * Re(7.81%) + D(1.09b)/V(2.23b) * Rd(1.63%) * (1-Tc(0.38)))
Discount Rate = 7.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 2.03%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.80% ; FCFF base≈86.1m ; Y1≈90.4m ; Y5≈105.3m
Fair Price DCF = 49.84 (EV 3.12b - Net Debt 625.0m = Equity 2.50b / Shares 50.2m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 5.32% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -32.11 | EPS CAGR: -32.67% | SUE: -0.54 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.58 | Revenue CAGR: 52.78% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=+0.016 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.23 | Chg30d=-0.410 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+10.4% | Growth Revenue=+25.4%