ASTH Stock Analysis: Astrana Health | NASDAQ
Medical Care Facilities | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.858m USD | 12M Return: 14.8% | US03763A2078 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 10.7M
EPS Trend: 70.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTH) is a US-based healthcare management company that provides medical care services through three operating segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement. The company delivers care coordination services to a broad range of stakeholders, including patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, hospitals, and health plans, supported by a physician network spanning primary care, specialty care, and hospitalists. Its patient base is largely covered by public and private insurance programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and HMOs, with additional service to non-insured patients. The company was founded in 1992, is headquartered in Alhambra, California, and was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings before rebranding to Astrana Health in February 2024.
The company operates within the value-based care model, an approach in the healthcare services sector that emphasizes care coordination, population health management, and outcomes-based reimbursement rather than traditional fee-for-service billing. Its three-segment structure reflects the key components of this model: partnering with payers and providers (Care Partners), delivering direct patient care (Care Delivery), and supplying the technology, analytics, and administrative infrastructure that supports both (Care Enablement).
- Medicare Advantage risk adjustment payment changes impact revenue per member
- Prospect Health acquisition drives membership and revenue expansion
- Medical loss ratio trends pressure Care Partners segment margins
| Net Income: 40.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.46 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.46% < 20% (prev 11.14%; Δ -6.67% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 175.9m > Net Income 40.5m |
| Net Debt (621.5m) to EBITDA (190.5m): 3.26 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.23 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (49.8m) vs 12m ago 0.62% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 9.22% > 18% (prev 11.81%; Δ -2.59% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 206.4% > 50% (prev 167.7%; Δ 38.71% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.89 > 6 (EBIT TTM 127.4m / Interest Expense TTM 67.3m) |
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 919.2m - Total Current Liabilities 747.6m) / Total Assets 2.28b |
| B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 342.4m / Total Assets 2.28b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 127.4m / Avg Total Assets 1.86b) |
| D: 0.49 (Book Value of Equity 830.2m / Total Liabilities 1.68b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.96 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.85 (Receivables 492.5m/365.3m, Revenue 3.84b/2.42b) |
| GMI: 1.28 (GM 11.81% / 9.22%) |
| AQI: 1.20 (AQ_t 0.55 / AQ_t-1 0.46) |
| SGI: 1.59 (Revenue 3.84b / 2.42b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 40.5m - CFO 175.9m) / TA 2.28b) |
| Beneish M = -2.36 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of November 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 36.53 with a total of 236,660 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.46%, over one month by +3.05%, over three months by -0.41% and over the past year by +14.84%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 34.60 (which is 5.3% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Astrana Health has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.64. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ASTH.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 51.7 | 41.4% |
P/E Trailing = 45.1205
P/E Forward = 8.9686
P/S = 0.4832
P/B = 1.6745
Revenue TTM = 3.84b USD
EBIT TTM = 127.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 190.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 882.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 62.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.02b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 42.9m
Net Debt = 621.5m USD (calculated: Debt 1.02b - CCE 400.8m)
Enterprise Value = 2.48b USD (1.86b + Debt 1.02b - CCE 400.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.89 (Ebit TTM 127.4m / Interest Expense TTM 67.3m)
EV/FCF = 15.65x (Enterprise Value 2.48b / FCF TTM 158.4m)
FCF Yield = 6.39% (FCF TTM 158.4m / Enterprise Value 2.48b)
FCF Margin = 4.12% (FCF TTM 158.4m / Revenue TTM 3.84b)
Net Margin = 1.05% (Net Income TTM 40.5m / Revenue TTM 3.84b)
Gross Margin = 9.22% ((Revenue TTM 3.84b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.49b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.70% (prev 9.35%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.09 (Enterprise Value 2.48b / Total Assets 2.28b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.59% (Interest Expense 67.3m / Debt 1.02b)
Taxrate = 34.73% (20.9m / 60.1m)
NOPAT = 83.2m (EBIT 127.4m * (1 - 34.73%))
Current Ratio = 1.23 (Total Current Assets 919.2m / Total Current Liabilities 747.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.23 (Debt 1.02b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 830.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.26 (Net Debt 621.5m / EBITDA 190.5m)
Debt / FCF = 3.92 (Net Debt 621.5m / FCF TTM 158.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 796.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.18% (Net Income 40.5m / Total Assets 2.28b)
RoE = 5.09% (Net Income TTM 40.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 796.3m)
RoCE = 7.59% (EBIT 127.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 796.3m + L.T.Debt 882.6m))
RoIC = 5.92% (NOPAT 83.2m / Invested Capital 1.41b)
WACC = 6.29% (E(1.86b)/V(2.88b) * Re(7.39%) + D(1.02b)/V(2.88b) * Rd(6.59%) * (1-Tc(0.35)))
Discount Rate = 7.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 89.14 | Cagr: 1.77%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈143.6m ; Y1≈164.6m ; Y5≈242.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 60.95 (EV 3.64b - Net Debt 621.5m = Equity 3.02b / Shares 49.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 70.30 | EPS CAGR: 17.91% | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.35 | Revenue CAGR: 51.47% | SUE: -0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=+1.94% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.07 | Chg30d=+0.88% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+44.5% | GrowthRev=+25.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.64 | Chg30d=+2.73% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+18.6% | GrowthRev=+10.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67% (up=6, down=0)