ASTH Stock Analysis: Astrana Health | NASDAQ
Medical Care Facilities | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.326m USD | 12M Return: 83% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 31.9M
EPS Trend: 71.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Astrana Health, Inc. is a U.S. healthcare management company based in Alhambra, California, founded in 1992 and previously known as Apollo Medical Holdings before rebranding in February 2024. It operates through three segments-Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement-delivering care coordination services to patients, physicians, hospitals, and health plans.
The company runs a physician network spanning primary care doctors, specialists, extenders, and hospitalists, and primarily serves patients covered by Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization (HMO) plans, along with non-insured patients. As a value-based care provider, Astrana Health is positioned within the broader Health Care Services industry, which has grown alongside increased Medicare enrollment and the shift toward coordinated, risk-bearing care models.
- Medicare Advantage rate cuts pressure Care Partners margins
- Acquisitions of physician groups fuel capitated membership growth
- Value-based care contracts expand margins across all segments
| Net Income: 30.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.66 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.34% < 20% (prev 11.20%; Δ -3.86% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 166.0m > Net Income 30.2m |
| Net Debt (624.4m) to EBITDA (162.8m): 3.83 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.35 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (49.1m) vs 12m ago 0.42% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 9.31% > 18% (prev 12.17%; Δ -2.85% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 191.1% > 50% (prev 169.1%; Δ 22.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.85 > 6 (EBIT TTM 108.4m / Interest Expense TTM 58.7m) |
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.00b - Total Current Liabilities 745.4m) / Total Assets 2.36b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 322.7m / Total Assets 2.36b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 108.4m / Avg Total Assets 1.85b) |
| D: 0.45 (Book Value of Equity 800.3m / Total Liabilities 1.78b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.03 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 500.1m/328.6m, Revenue 3.53b/2.25b) |
| GMI: 1.31 (GM 12.17% / 9.31%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.53 / AQ_t-1 0.50) |
| SGI: 1.57 (Revenue 3.53b / 2.25b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 30.2m - CFO 166.0m) / TA 2.36b) |
| Beneish M = -2.34 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 46.88 with a total of 350,109 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.67%, over one month by +21.03%, over three months by +69.65% and over the past year by +83.03%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 44.60 (which is 4.9% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Astrana Health has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ASTH.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 47.1 | 0.5% |
P/E Trailing = 76.9016
P/E Forward = 23.0415
P/S = 0.6596
P/B = 3.0465
Revenue TTM = 3.53b USD
EBIT TTM = 108.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 162.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 979.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 55.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.10b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 37.6m
Net Debt = 624.4m USD (calculated: Debt 1.10b - CCE 478.4m)
Enterprise Value = 2.95b USD (2.33b + Debt 1.10b - CCE 478.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.85 (Ebit TTM 108.4m / Interest Expense TTM 58.7m)
EV/FCF = 19.04x (Enterprise Value 2.95b / FCF TTM 155.0m)
FCF Yield = 5.25% (FCF TTM 155.0m / Enterprise Value 2.95b)
FCF Margin = 4.40% (FCF TTM 155.0m / Revenue TTM 3.53b)
Net Margin = 0.86% (Net Income TTM 30.2m / Revenue TTM 3.53b)
Gross Margin = 9.31% ((Revenue TTM 3.53b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.20b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.35% (prev 8.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.25 (Enterprise Value 2.95b / Total Assets 2.36b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.32% (Interest Expense 58.7m / Debt 1.10b)
Taxrate = 37.67% (18.7m / 49.7m)
NOPAT = 67.6m (EBIT 108.4m * (1 - 37.67%))
Current Ratio = 1.35 (Total Current Assets 1.00b / Total Current Liabilities 745.4m)
Debt / Equity = 1.38 (Debt 1.10b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 800.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.83 (Net Debt 624.4m / EBITDA 162.8m)
Debt / FCF = 4.03 (Net Debt 624.4m / FCF TTM 155.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 780.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.64% (Net Income 30.2m / Total Assets 2.36b)
RoE = 3.88% (Net Income TTM 30.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 780.1m)
RoCE = 6.16% (EBIT 108.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 780.1m + L.T.Debt 979.8m))
RoIC = 4.53% (NOPAT 67.6m / Invested Capital 1.49b)
WACC = 6.96% (E(2.33b)/V(3.43b) * Re(8.69%) + D(1.10b)/V(3.43b) * Rd(5.32%) * (1-Tc(0.38)))
Discount Rate = 8.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 76.41 | Cagr: 1.42%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈113.8m ; Y1≈130.5m ; Y5≈192.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 45.70 (EV 2.89b - Net Debt 624.4m = Equity 2.27b / Shares 49.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 71.35 | EPS CAGR: 18.94% | SUE: 0.49 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.58 | Revenue CAGR: 47.48% | SUE: 0.80 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.79 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.92 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+37.6% | GrowthRev=+25.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.42 | Chg30d=+0.29% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+17.1% | GrowthRev=+9.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +57% (up=4, down=0)