ASTH Stock Analysis: Astrana Health | NASDAQ
Medical Care Facilities | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.905m USD | 12M Return: 21% | US03763A2078 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 15.6M
EPS Trend: 70.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Astrana Health, Inc. is a U.S. healthcare management company based in Alhambra, California, founded in 1992 and previously known as Apollo Medical Holdings before rebranding in February 2024. It operates through three segments-Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement-delivering care coordination services to patients, physicians, hospitals, and health plans.
The company runs a physician network spanning primary care doctors, specialists, extenders, and hospitalists, and primarily serves patients covered by Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization (HMO) plans, along with non-insured patients. As a value-based care provider, Astrana Health is positioned within the broader Health Care Services industry, which has grown alongside increased Medicare enrollment and the shift toward coordinated, risk-bearing care models.
- Medicare Advantage rate cuts pressure Care Partners margins
- Acquisitions of physician groups fuel capitated membership growth
- Value-based care contracts expand margins across all segments
| Net Income: 40.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.46 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.46% < 20% (prev 11.14%; Δ -6.67% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 175.9m > Net Income 40.5m |
| Net Debt (690.5m) to EBITDA (146.2m): 4.72 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.23 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (49.8m) vs 12m ago 0.62% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 9.22% > 18% (prev 11.81%; Δ -2.59% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 206.4% > 50% (prev 167.7%; Δ 38.71% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.49 > 6 (EBIT TTM 100.5m / Interest Expense TTM 67.3m) |
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 919.2m - Total Current Liabilities 747.6m) / Total Assets 2.28b |
| B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 342.4m / Total Assets 2.28b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 100.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.86b) |
| D: 0.49 (Book Value of Equity 830.2m / Total Liabilities 1.68b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.86 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.85 (Receivables 492.5m/365.3m, Revenue 3.84b/2.42b) |
| GMI: 1.28 (GM 11.81% / 9.22%) |
| AQI: 1.20 (AQ_t 0.55 / AQ_t-1 0.46) |
| SGI: 1.59 (Revenue 3.84b / 2.42b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 40.5m - CFO 175.9m) / TA 2.28b) |
| Beneish M = -2.36 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of September 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 38.57 with a total of 305,121 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.10%, over one month by +7.41%, over three months by +4.50% and over the past year by +20.98%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 35.50 (which is 8% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Astrana Health has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ASTH.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 51.5 | 33.5% |
P/E Trailing = 46.8415
P/E Forward = 23.0415
P/S = 0.4956
P/B = 2.3093
Revenue TTM = 3.84b USD
EBIT TTM = 100.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 146.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 990.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 62.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.09b USD (corrected: LT Debt 990.9m + ST Debt 62.8m) + Leases 37.6m
Net Debt = 690.5m USD (calculated: Debt 1.09b - CCE 400.8m)
Enterprise Value = 2.60b USD (1.91b + Debt 1.09b - CCE 400.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.49 (Ebit TTM 100.5m / Interest Expense TTM 67.3m)
EV/FCF = 16.38x (Enterprise Value 2.60b / FCF TTM 158.4m)
FCF Yield = 6.10% (FCF TTM 158.4m / Enterprise Value 2.60b)
FCF Margin = 4.12% (FCF TTM 158.4m / Revenue TTM 3.84b)
Net Margin = 1.05% (Net Income TTM 40.5m / Revenue TTM 3.84b)
Gross Margin = 9.22% ((Revenue TTM 3.84b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.49b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.70% (prev 9.35%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.14 (Enterprise Value 2.60b / Total Assets 2.28b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.17% (Interest Expense 67.3m / Debt 1.09b)
Taxrate = 34.73% (20.9m / 60.1m)
NOPAT = 65.6m (EBIT 100.5m * (1 - 34.73%))
Current Ratio = 1.23 (Total Current Assets 919.2m / Total Current Liabilities 747.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.31 (Debt 1.09b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 830.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.72 (Net Debt 690.5m / EBITDA 146.2m)
Debt / FCF = 4.36 (Net Debt 690.5m / FCF TTM 158.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 796.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.18% (Net Income 40.5m / Total Assets 2.28b)
RoE = 5.09% (Net Income TTM 40.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 796.3m)
RoCE = 5.62% (EBIT 100.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 796.3m + L.T.Debt 990.9m))
RoIC = 4.67% (NOPAT 65.6m / Invested Capital 1.41b)
WACC = 6.79% (E(1.91b)/V(3.00b) * Re(8.38%) + D(1.09b)/V(3.00b) * Rd(6.17%) * (1-Tc(0.35)))
Discount Rate = 8.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 89.14 | Cagr: 1.77%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈143.6m ; Y1≈164.6m ; Y5≈242.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 59.56 (EV 3.64b - Net Debt 690.5m = Equity 2.95b / Shares 49.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 70.30 | EPS CAGR: 17.91% | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.35 | Revenue CAGR: 51.47% | SUE: -0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=+8.86% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.04 | Chg30d=+4.11% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+43.2% | GrowthRev=+25.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.54 | Chg30d=+3.51% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+16.4% | GrowthRev=+10.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25% (up=1, down=0)