(ASTL) Algoma Steel - Ratings and Ratios
Flat Steel, Plate Steel, By-Products, Scrap Metal, Slag
ASTL EPS (Earnings per Share)
ASTL Revenue
Description: ASTL Algoma Steel
Algoma Steel Group Inc. is a leading steel producer operating in North America and internationally, offering a diverse range of steel products that cater to various industries, including automotive, construction, and energy. The companys product portfolio encompasses flat/sheet steel and plate steel products, which are utilized in the manufacture of critical infrastructure, transportation equipment, and machinery. Algoma Steels products are designed to meet the demanding requirements of its customers, who value the companys ability to deliver high-quality steel products with precise specifications.
Algoma Steels business model is centered around its manufacturing capabilities, which are supported by a range of by-products that are generated during the steel production process. These by-products, such as furnace coke, slag, and mill scale, are sold to third-party customers, providing an additional revenue stream for the company. The companys long history, dating back to 1901, has enabled it to develop a strong presence in the steel industry, with a customer base that spans multiple sectors.
From a technical analysis perspective, Algoma Steels stock price has exhibited volatility, with a recent price of $6.80 and an Average True Range (ATR) of 0.32, indicating a moderate level of price movement. The stocks short-term moving averages (SMA20 and SMA50) are trending upwards, suggesting a potential bullish signal, while the long-term moving average (SMA200) is significantly higher, indicating a potential resistance level. Considering the fundamental data, the companys market capitalization is approximately $713.55 million, with a forward P/E ratio of 11.30, suggesting a relatively reasonable valuation.
Based on the available technical and fundamental data, a potential forecast for Algoma Steels stock price could be derived from analyzing the convergence of its short-term and long-term moving averages, as well as its valuation multiples. If the company is able to capitalize on the growing demand for steel products in the North American market, driven by infrastructure spending and automotive production, its revenue and earnings could potentially increase, driving the stock price higher. Assuming a successful execution of its business strategy, Algoma Steels stock price could potentially reach $8.50 in the next 6-12 months, representing a 25% increase from current levels. However, this forecast is contingent upon the companys ability to navigate the cyclical nature of the steel industry and maintain its competitiveness in the market.
ASTL Stock Overview
Market Cap in USD | 494m |
Sub-Industry | Diversified Metals & Mining |
IPO / Inception | 2021-10-20 |
ASTL Stock Ratings
Growth Rating | -72.0% |
Fundamental | 16.6% |
Dividend Rating | 32.6% |
Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -61.5% |
Analyst Rating | 3.75 of 5 |
ASTL Dividends
Dividend Yield 12m | 2.61% |
Yield on Cost 5y | 1.69% |
Annual Growth 5y | 0.00% |
Payout Consistency | 97.5% |
Payout Ratio | 38.5% |
ASTL Growth Ratios
Growth Correlation 3m | -78% |
Growth Correlation 12m | -84.4% |
Growth Correlation 5y | -44.9% |
CAGR 5y | -15.98% |
CAGR/Max DD 3y | -0.25 |
CAGR/Mean DD 3y | -0.79 |
Sharpe Ratio 12m | -2.92 |
Alpha | -74.00 |
Beta | 0.961 |
Volatility | 54.07% |
Current Volume | 1101.9k |
Average Volume 20d | 1051.7k |
Stop Loss | 4.2 (-8.1%) |
Signal | 0.30 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
Net Income (-308.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 137.8m TTM) |
FCFTA -0.15 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -9.09pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
NWC/Revenue 31.60% (prev 47.76%; Δ -16.16pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
CFO/TA 0.00 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.80m > Net Income -308.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
Current Ratio 2.46 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
Outstanding Shares last Quarter (104.9m) change vs 12m ago -21.16% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
Gross Margin -12.93% (prev 4.48%; Δ -17.41pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
Asset Turnover 75.71% (prev 83.86%; Δ -8.15pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
Interest Coverage Ratio -5.36 (EBITDA TTM -252.0m / Interest Expense TTM 66.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.74
(A) 0.25 = (Total Current Assets 1.22b - Total Current Liabilities 497.9m) / Total Assets 2.95b |
(B) -0.02 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -48.1m / Total Assets 2.95b |
(C) -0.12 = EBIT TTM -357.2m / Avg Total Assets 3.03b |
(D) -0.03 = Book Value of Equity -48.1m / Total Liabilities 1.65b |
Total Rating: 0.74 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 16.61
1. Piotroski 2.50pt = -2.50 |
2. FCF Yield -42.68% = -5.0 |
3. FCF Margin -19.67% = -7.38 |
4. Debt/Equity 0.50 = 2.38 |
5. Debt/Ebitda -2.57 = -2.50 |
6. ROIC - WACC -23.17% = -12.50 |
7. RoE -21.63% = -2.50 |
8. Rev. Trend -40.22% = -2.01 |
9. Rev. CAGR -0.58% = -0.10 |
10. EPS Trend -51.40% = -1.28 |
11. EPS CAGR 0.0% = 0.0 |
What is the price of ASTL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.23%, over one month by +0.44%, over three months by -30.23% and over the past year by -54.22%.
Is Algoma Steel a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ASTL is around 3.74 USD . This means that ASTL is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -18.16%.
Is ASTL a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ASTL price?
Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
---|---|---|
Wallstreet Target Price | 20 | 337.6% |
Analysts Target Price | 20 | 337.6% |
ValueRay Target Price | 4.1 | -11.2% |
Last update: 2025-09-11 04:32
ASTL Fundamental Data Overview
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 82.5m USD (Cash only, last quarter)
P/E Forward = 8.0972
P/S = 0.2155
P/B = 0.5255
Beta = 1.614
Revenue TTM = 2.30b USD
EBIT TTM = -357.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = -252.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 606.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 41.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 648.0m USD (Calculated: Short Term 41.4m + Long Term 606.6m)
Net Debt = 565.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.06b USD (493.6m + Debt 648.0m - CCE 82.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -5.36 (Ebit TTM -357.2m / Interest Expense TTM 66.6m)
FCF Yield = -42.68% (FCF TTM -452.0m / Enterprise Value 1.06b)
FCF Margin = -19.67% (FCF TTM -452.0m / Revenue TTM 2.30b)
Net Margin = -13.42% (Net Income TTM -308.2m / Revenue TTM 2.30b)
Gross Margin = -12.93% ((Revenue TTM 2.30b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -22.02 (set to none) (Enterprise Value 1.06b / Book Value Of Equity -48.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.35% (Interest Expense 21.7m / Debt 648.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default)
NOPAT = -357.2m (EBIT -357.2m, no tax applied on loss)
Current Ratio = 2.46 (Total Current Assets 1.22b / Total Current Liabilities 497.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.50 (Debt 648.0m / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 1.29b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.57 (Net Debt 565.5m / EBITDA -252.0m)
Debt / FCF = -1.43 (Debt 648.0m / FCF TTM -452.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.42b (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = -10.46% (Net Income -308.2m, Total Assets 2.95b )
RoE = -21.63% (Net Income TTM -308.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.42b)
RoCE = -17.59% (Ebit -357.2m / (Equity 1.42b + L.T.Debt 606.6m))
RoIC = -17.54% (NOPAT -357.2m / Invested Capital 2.04b)
WACC = 5.64% (E(493.6m)/V(1.14b) * Re(9.56%)) + (D(648.0m)/V(1.14b) * Rd(3.35%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -16.79 | Cagr: -2.95%
Discount Rate = 9.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -452.0m)
Revenue Correlation: -40.22 | Revenue CAGR: -0.58%
Rev Growth-of-Growth: -15.34
EPS Correlation: -51.40 | EPS CAGR: 0.0%
EPS Growth-of-Growth: -106.3
Additional Sources for ASTL Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle