ASTL Stock Analysis: Algoma Steel | NASDAQ
Steel | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 397m USD | 12M Return: -48.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.35M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -95.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) is a Canadian integrated steel producer that manufactures and sells flat/sheet and plate steel products primarily across Canada, the United States, and select international markets. Its flat-rolled offerings-including hot-rolled pickled and oiled, cold rolled, temper rolled, floor plate, and cut-to-length products-serve the automotive, hollow structural tube, light manufacturing, and transportation sectors. Its plate steel products are used in railcars, construction, bridges, off-highway equipment, storage tanks, ships, military armored applications, pipelines, and wind energy equipment.
In addition to primary steel, the company sells a range of by-products generated through its steelmaking process, including furnace and breeze coke, light oil, coal tar, granulated and air-cooled slag, mill roll scale, BOF pit grissly and scrap, and various iron and lime fines. Founded in 1901 and headquartered in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Algoma is one of Canadas oldest continuously operating steelmakers and trades on NASDAQ as a small-cap Materials issuer (GICS sub-industry: Diversified Metals & Mining).
Based on its by-product slate, Algoma operates an integrated basic oxygen furnace (BOF) production route, which relies on iron ore, coke, and blast furnace technology rather than the electric arc furnace (EAF) method that uses primarily recycled scrap. North American steel is generally split between these two production models, with BOF producers typically exposed to iron ore and coking coal input costs and EAF producers more sensitive to scrap prices and electricity costs.
- Hot-rolled coil prices swing with North American demand
- Section 232 tariffs shield domestic steel pricing power
- Electric arc furnace conversion lowers carbon tax exposure
| Net Income: -1.12b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.21 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.89 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 30.07% < 20% (prev 41.10%; Δ -11.04% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.10 > 3% & CFO -194.5m > Net Income -1.12b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.45 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (108.7m) vs 12m ago 2.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -36.07% > 18% (prev -8.87%; Δ -27.20% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.27% > 50% (prev 70.49%; Δ 2.78% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -11.82 > 6 (EBIT TTM -851.2m / Interest Expense TTM 72.0m) |
| A: 0.28 (Total Current Assets 948.6m - Total Current Liabilities 387.7m) / Total Assets 2.00b |
| B: -0.53 (Retained Earnings -1.06b / Total Assets 2.00b) |
| C: -0.33 (EBIT TTM -851.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.55b) |
| D: 0.21 (Book Value of Equity 345.9m / Total Liabilities 1.66b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.91 = D |
| DSRI: 0.58 (Receivables 131.5m/266.1m, Revenue 1.87b/2.18b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.26 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 0.86 (Revenue 1.87b / 2.18b) |
| TATA: -0.46 (NI -1.12b - CFO -194.5m) / TA 2.00b) |
| Beneish M = -3.96 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.59 with a total of 1,442,439 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.27%, over one month by -23.29%, over three months by -23.13% and over the past year by -48.27%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.20 (which is 10.9% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Algoma Steel has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ASTL.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 20 | 457.1% |
Market Cap CAD = 563.0m (397.3m USD * 1.417 USD.CAD)
P/E Forward = 7.0126
P/S = 0.213
P/B = 1.6329
Revenue TTM = 1.87b CAD
EBIT TTM = -851.2m CAD
EBITDA TTM = -496.9m CAD
Long Term Debt = 768.9m CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 67.9m CAD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 863.1m CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 1.10m
Net Debt = 797.8m CAD (calculated: Debt 863.1m - CCE 65.3m)
Enterprise Value = 1.36b CAD (563.0m + Debt 863.1m - CCE 65.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -11.82 (Ebit TTM -851.2m / Interest Expense TTM 72.0m)
EV/FCF = -3.24x (Enterprise Value 1.36b / FCF TTM -420.2m)
FCF Yield = -30.88% (FCF TTM -420.2m / Enterprise Value 1.36b)
FCF Margin = -22.52% (FCF TTM -420.2m / Revenue TTM 1.87b)
Net Margin = -60.03% (Net Income TTM -1.12b / Revenue TTM 1.87b)
Gross Margin = -36.07% ((Revenue TTM 1.87b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.54b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -42.64% (prev -84.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.68 (Enterprise Value 1.36b / Total Assets 2.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.34% (Interest Expense 72.0m / Debt 863.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -672.4m (EBIT -851.2m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.45 (Total Current Assets 948.6m / Total Current Liabilities 387.7m)
Debt / Equity = 2.50 (Debt 863.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 345.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.61 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 797.8m / EBITDA -496.9m)
Debt / FCF = -1.90 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 797.8m / FCF TTM -420.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 751.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -43.98% (Net Income -1.12b / Total Assets 2.00b)
RoE = -149.1% (Net Income TTM -1.12b / Total Stockholder Equity 751.0m)
RoCE = -56.00% (EBIT -851.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 751.0m + L.T.Debt 768.9m))
RoIC = -38.79% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -672.4m / Invested Capital 1.73b)
WACC = 8.69% (E(563.0m)/V(1.43b) * Re(11.90%) + D(863.1m)/V(1.43b) * Rd(8.34%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -4.49 | Cagr: 0.17%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -420.2m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.46 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -95.03 | Revenue CAGR: -14.25% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.84 | Chg30d=-5.43% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.45 | Chg30d=-5.46% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-3.01 | Chg30d=+3.63% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+40.2% | GrowthRev=-37.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.39 | Chg30d=-25.81% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+88.3% | GrowthRev=+43.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=1, down=2)