(ASTL) Algoma Steel - Overview

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: Canada • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: CA0156581070

Stock: Sheet Steel, Plate Steel, Slabs, Billets, By-Products

Total Rating 33

Risk 61

Buy Signal 0.27

Steel -4.2
Diversified Metals & Mining -20.1

Market Cap: 412m
Avg Trading Vol: 7.25M USD

ATR: 7.55%
Peers RS (IBD): 17.39

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	95.3%
Relative Tail Risk	-7.95%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.33
Alpha	-55.96

Character TTM
Beta	1.625
Beta Downside	1.978

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	72.88%
CAGR/Max DD	-0.15

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -19.15%
EPS Trend: -68.9%

Last SUE: 1.58
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -17.23%
Rev. Trend: -77.5%

Last SUE: 2.71
Qual. Beats: 2

Description: ASTL Algoma Steel February 22, 2026

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL) manufactures a broad portfolio of flat-sheet and plate steel products for automotive, construction, rail, and energy markets across Canada, the United States, and export destinations. Its offerings range from cold-rolled and hot-rolled sheet to specialty heat-treated plate, complemented by a suite of by-products such as coke, slag, and recycled metals.

In its latest fiscal quarter (Q4 2025), Algoma reported revenue of **$1.22 billion**, an EBITDA of **$182 million**, and a net profit of **$46 million**, reflecting a **12% year-over-year rise in steel price indices**. Capacity utilization improved to **78%**, and the company’s debt-to-equity ratio stood at **0.89**, indicating modest leverage relative to peers.

Key drivers for the sector include sustained U.S. infrastructure spending, a rebound in automotive production, and growing demand for steel in renewable-energy projects such as wind-turbine foundations. **For a deeper dive into ASTL’s valuation metrics, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst toolkit.**

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0

Net Income: -686.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.23 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -13.19 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 29.95% < 20% (prev 44.68%; Δ -14.72% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.06 > 3% & CFO -140.0m > Net Income -686.7m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 2.29 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (108.7m) vs 12m ago -18.33% < -2%
Gross Margin: -16.10% > 18% (prev 0.00%; Δ -1610 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 80.30% > 50% (prev 80.33%; Δ -0.02% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -9.02 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -373.3m / Interest Expense TTM 58.1m)

Altman Z'' 0.39

A: 0.27 (Total Current Assets 1.18b - Total Current Liabilities 515.6m) / Total Assets 2.44b
B: -0.22 (Retained Earnings -533.2m / Total Assets 2.44b)
C: -0.19 (EBIT TTM -523.8m / Avg Total Assets 2.77b)
D: 0.56 (Book Value of Equity 870.0m / Total Liabilities 1.56b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 0.39 = B

Beneish M -2.42

DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 256.4m/289.8m, Revenue 2.22b/2.49b)
GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins)
AQI: 2.56 (AQ_t 0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.00)
SGI: 0.89 (Revenue 2.22b / 2.49b)
TATA: -0.22 (NI -686.7m - CFO -140.0m) / TA 2.44b)
Beneish M-Score: -2.42 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB

What is the price of ASTL shares?

As of February 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.95 with a total of 1,959,028 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.70%, over one month by +22.22%, over three months by +50.91% and over the past year by -35.43%.

Is ASTL a buy, sell or hold?

Algoma Steel has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefor, it is recommend to hold ASTL.

StrongBuy: 0
Buy: 3
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ASTL price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	20	304%
Analysts Target Price	20	304%

ASTL Fundamental Data Overview February 21, 2026

P/E Forward = 7.5586
P/S = 0.2318
P/B = 0.7988
Revenue TTM = 2.22b USD
EBIT TTM = -523.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -373.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 632.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 111.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 744.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 739.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.15b USD (412.1m + Debt 744.1m - CCE 4.50m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.02 (Ebit TTM -523.8m / Interest Expense TTM 58.1m)
EV/FCF = -2.09x (Enterprise Value 1.15b / FCF TTM -550.5m)
FCF Yield = -47.80% (FCF TTM -550.5m / Enterprise Value 1.15b)
FCF Margin = -24.79% (FCF TTM -550.5m / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Net Margin = -30.92% (Net Income TTM -686.7m / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Gross Margin = -16.10% ((Revenue TTM 2.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -20.50% (prev -9.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.47 (Enterprise Value 1.15b / Total Assets 2.44b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.64% (Interest Expense 12.2m / Debt 744.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -413.8m (EBIT -523.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.29 (Total Current Assets 1.18b / Total Current Liabilities 515.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.85 (Debt 744.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 874.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.98 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 739.6m / EBITDA -373.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.34 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 739.6m / FCF TTM -550.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.29b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -24.83% (Net Income -686.7m / Total Assets 2.44b)
RoE = -53.24% (Net Income TTM -686.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.29b)
RoCE = -27.24% (EBIT -523.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.29b + L.T.Debt 632.8m))
RoIC = -21.79% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -413.8m / Invested Capital 1.90b)
WACC = 5.08% (E(412.1m)/V(1.16b) * Re(11.90%) + D(744.1m)/V(1.16b) * Rd(1.64%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.18%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -550.5m)
EPS Correlation: -68.87 | EPS CAGR: -19.15% | SUE: 1.58 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -77.53 | Revenue CAGR: -17.23% | SUE: 2.71 | # QB: 2
EPS next Year (2026-03-31): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=+0.020 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+116.7% | Growth Revenue=+18.4%

Additional Sources for ASTL Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle