(ASTL) Algoma Steel - Ratings and Ratios
Flat Steel, Plate Steel, By-Products
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.46% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.13% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 38.5% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 78.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 116% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.69% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.21 |
| Alpha | -81.46 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.16 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.633 |
| Beta | 1.466 |
| Beta Downside | 1.660 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 72.88% |
| Mean DD | 26.14% |
| Median DD | 20.66% |
Description: ASTL Algoma Steel October 21, 2025
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL) manufactures a broad portfolio of flat-sheet and plate steel products for automotive, construction, rail, shipbuilding, and energy markets across Canada, the United States, and export destinations. Its flat-sheet line includes temper-rolled, cold-rolled, hot-rolled pickled-and-oiled, floor-plate, and cut-to-length grades, while its plate segment supplies hot-rolled, heat-treated, and specialty-coated plates for infrastructure, off-highway equipment, and military applications. In addition, the firm monetizes a range of by-products-coke, flue dust, slag, and scrap metal-generated throughout the steelmaking process.
Key operating metrics that shape Algoma’s outlook include: (1) 2023 net steel production of roughly 2.3 million metric tons, (2) an EBITDA margin that has hovered around 5-6 % over the past two years, and (3) a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of about 3.2×, indicating moderate leverage relative to peers. The company’s earnings are highly sensitive to three macro drivers: (a) U.S. and Canadian steel tariff policy, (b) the pace of automotive electrification-which boosts demand for high-strength sheet steel-and (c) overall construction activity, especially government-backed infrastructure spending that supports plate-steel orders. A deviation in any of these variables-e.g., a tariff rollback or a slowdown in EV production-would materially alter Algoma’s cash-flow trajectory.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of ASTL’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the analyst tools on ValueRay useful for independent research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income (-686.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 133.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.23 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -13.19pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 29.95% (prev 44.68%; Δ -14.72pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO -140.0m > Net Income -686.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 2.29 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (104.9m) change vs 12m ago -21.16% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin -16.53% (prev 0.11%; Δ -16.64pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 80.30% (prev 80.33%; Δ -0.02pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -3.49 (EBITDA TTM -188.4m / Interest Expense TTM 73.8m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.09
| (A) 0.27 = (Total Current Assets 1.18b - Total Current Liabilities 515.6m) / Total Assets 2.44b |
| (B) -0.22 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -533.2m / Total Assets 2.44b |
| (C) -0.09 = EBIT TTM -257.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.77b |
| (D) -0.34 = Book Value of Equity -533.2m / Total Liabilities 1.56b |
| Total Rating: 0.09 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 9.41
| 1. Piotroski 2.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -50.94% |
| 3. FCF Margin -24.79% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.77 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -3.93 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -16.16)% |
| 7. RoE -53.24% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -77.45% |
| 9. EPS Trend -79.81% |
What is the price of ASTL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.36%, over one month by -3.33%, over three months by -15.21% and over the past year by -61.06%.
Is ASTL a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ASTL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 20 | 391.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 20 | 391.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3.6 | -12.8% |
ASTL Fundamental Data Overview November 21, 2025
P/E Forward = 9.1158
P/S = 0.1626
P/B = 0.5973
Beta = 1.563
Revenue TTM = 2.22b USD
EBIT TTM = -257.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = -188.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 632.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 111.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 673.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 739.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.08b USD (412.1m + Debt 673.2m - CCE 4.50m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.49 (Ebit TTM -257.3m / Interest Expense TTM 73.8m)
FCF Yield = -50.94% (FCF TTM -550.5m / Enterprise Value 1.08b)
FCF Margin = -24.79% (FCF TTM -550.5m / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Net Margin = -30.92% (Net Income TTM -686.7m / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Gross Margin = -16.53% ((Revenue TTM 2.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -22.31% (prev -9.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.44 (Enterprise Value 1.08b / Total Assets 2.44b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.94% (Interest Expense 19.8m / Debt 673.2m)
Taxrate = 23.10% (-145.7m / -630.8m)
NOPAT = -197.9m (EBIT -257.3m * (1 - 23.10%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.29 (Total Current Assets 1.18b / Total Current Liabilities 515.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 673.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 874.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.93 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 739.6m / EBITDA -188.4m)
Debt / FCF = -1.34 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 739.6m / FCF TTM -550.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.29b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -28.19% (Net Income -686.7m / Total Assets 2.44b)
RoE = -53.24% (Net Income TTM -686.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.29b)
RoCE = -13.38% (EBIT -257.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.29b + L.T.Debt 632.8m))
RoIC = -10.42% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -197.9m / Invested Capital 1.90b)
WACC = 5.74% (E(412.1m)/V(1.09b) * Re(11.42%) + D(673.2m)/V(1.09b) * Rd(2.94%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 11.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.57%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -550.5m)
EPS Correlation: -79.81 | EPS CAGR: -61.77% | SUE: -0.60 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -77.45 | Revenue CAGR: -17.23% | SUE: 2.71 | # QB: 2
EPS next Year (2026-03-31): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=+0.020 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+116.7% | Growth Revenue=+18.4%
Additional Sources for ASTL Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle