(ASTL) Algoma Steel - Ratings and Ratios
Flat/Sheet Steel, Plate Steel, By-Products
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.55% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.13% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -20.63% |
| Payout Consistency | 88.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 38.5% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 54.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 80.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.10% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.13 |
| Alpha | -82.91 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.18 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.628 |
| Beta | 1.496 |
| Beta Downside | 1.795 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 72.88% |
| Mean DD | 27.74% |
| Median DD | 21.69% |
Description: ASTL Algoma Steel December 24, 2025
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL) is a vertically integrated steel producer headquartered in Sault Ste. Marie, Canada, with operations serving North American and global markets. The company manufactures a broad portfolio of flat-sheet and plate steel-including temper-rolled, cold-rolled, hot-rolled, and heat-treated products-targeting automotive OEMs, structural fabricators, and heavy-equipment makers, as well as specialized segments such as railcar construction, shipbuilding, and wind-energy components.
In its most recent fiscal quarter (Q4 2023), Algoma reported revenue of $1.02 billion, a 12 % year-over-year increase driven by higher steel prices and a 7 % rise in plant utilization to 78 %. Adjusted EBITDA reached $210 million, reflecting improved operating leverage as fixed-cost recovery accelerated amid a tighter supply environment.
Key economic drivers for Algoma include the resurgence of North-American construction activity-U.S. housing starts rose 4 % YoY in Q3 2024-and the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which is expected to boost demand for steel-intensive projects such as bridges and transit systems. Conversely, the company remains exposed to raw-material cost volatility (coking coal, iron ore) and cyclical demand in the automotive sector, which is currently undergoing a transition toward electric vehicles that may alter alloy specifications.
Beyond primary steel, Algoma monetizes a range of by-products (coke, slag, flue dust, and recycled metals), providing an ancillary revenue stream that can cushion margins when steel prices soften.
For a data-rich, model-ready deep-dive on ASTL’s valuation dynamics, see the detailed analysis on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income (-686.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 133.3m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.23 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -13.19pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 29.95% (prev 44.68%; Δ -14.72pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO -140.0m > Net Income -686.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 2.29 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (108.7m) change vs 12m ago -18.33% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin -16.10% (prev 0.11%; Δ -16.21pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 80.30% (prev 80.33%; Δ -0.02pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -9.02 (EBITDA TTM -373.3m / Interest Expense TTM 58.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.39
| (A) 0.27 = (Total Current Assets 1.18b - Total Current Liabilities 515.6m) / Total Assets 2.44b |
| (B) -0.22 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -533.2m / Total Assets 2.44b |
| (C) -0.19 = EBIT TTM -523.8m / Avg Total Assets 2.77b |
| (D) 0.56 = Book Value of Equity 870.0m / Total Liabilities 1.56b |
| Total Rating: 0.39 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 9.89
| 1. Piotroski 2.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -47.80% |
| 3. FCF Margin -24.79% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.85 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -1.98 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -26.13)% |
| 7. RoE -53.24% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -77.53% |
| 9. EPS Trend -68.87% |
What is the price of ASTL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.54%, over one month by +0.00%, over three months by +22.88% and over the past year by -58.94%.
Is ASTL a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ASTL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 20 | 410.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 20 | 410.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3.4 | -13.3% |
ASTL Fundamental Data Overview January 02, 2026
P/E Forward = 6.6845
P/S = 0.1943
P/B = 0.6739
Beta = 1.563
Revenue TTM = 2.22b USD
EBIT TTM = -523.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -373.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 632.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 111.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 744.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 739.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.15b USD (412.1m + Debt 744.1m - CCE 4.50m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.02 (Ebit TTM -523.8m / Interest Expense TTM 58.1m)
FCF Yield = -47.80% (FCF TTM -550.5m / Enterprise Value 1.15b)
FCF Margin = -24.79% (FCF TTM -550.5m / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Net Margin = -30.92% (Net Income TTM -686.7m / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Gross Margin = -16.10% ((Revenue TTM 2.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -20.50% (prev -9.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.47 (Enterprise Value 1.15b / Total Assets 2.44b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.64% (Interest Expense 12.2m / Debt 744.1m)
Taxrate = 23.10% (-145.7m / -630.8m)
NOPAT = -402.8m (EBIT -523.8m * (1 - 23.10%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.29 (Total Current Assets 1.18b / Total Current Liabilities 515.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.85 (Debt 744.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 874.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.98 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 739.6m / EBITDA -373.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.34 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 739.6m / FCF TTM -550.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.29b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -28.19% (Net Income -686.7m / Total Assets 2.44b)
RoE = -53.24% (Net Income TTM -686.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.29b)
RoCE = -27.24% (EBIT -523.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.29b + L.T.Debt 632.8m))
RoIC = -21.21% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -402.8m / Invested Capital 1.90b)
WACC = 4.92% (E(412.1m)/V(1.16b) * Re(11.53%) + D(744.1m)/V(1.16b) * Rd(1.64%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 11.53% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.18%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -550.5m)
EPS Correlation: -68.87 | EPS CAGR: -19.15% | SUE: 2.76 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -77.53 | Revenue CAGR: -17.23% | SUE: 2.71 | # QB: 2
EPS next Year (2026-03-31): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=+0.020 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+116.7% | Growth Revenue=+18.4%
Additional Sources for ASTL Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle