(ASTL) Algoma Steel - Overview

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: Canada • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: CA0156581070

Stock: Steel Products, Plate Steel, Sheet Steel, By-products

Total Rating 26

Risk 52

Buy Signal -1.69

Steel -24.8
Diversified Metals & Mining +4.0

Market Cap: 412m
Avg Trading Vol: 5.84M USD

ATR: 6.89%
Peers RS (IBD): 5.8

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	78.7%
Relative Tail Risk	-8.16%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.29
Alpha	-53.26

Character TTM
Beta	1.155
Beta Downside	0.979

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	72.88%
CAGR/Max DD	-0.22

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -19.15%
EPS Trend: -68.9%

Last SUE: 1.58
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -17.23%
Rev. Trend: -77.5%

Last SUE: 2.71
Qual. Beats: 2

Risks

Technicals: choppy

Description: ASTL Algoma Steel March 05, 2026

Algoma Steel Group Inc. (ASTL) is a Canadian steel producer. The companys primary products include flat/sheet steel and plate steel, serving sectors such as automotive, construction, and transportation. Steel production is a capital-intensive industry with high barriers to entry.

ASTL also generates revenue from various by-products, including coke, iron, and slag. This diversified product offering helps optimize resource utilization within the integrated steelmaking process.

To deepen your understanding of Algoma Steels market position and financial health, further research on ValueRay is recommended.

Headlines to watch out for

Steel demand from automotive and construction sectors
Iron ore and coking coal prices impact production costs
North American steel tariffs and trade policies
Economic slowdown reduces industrial steel consumption
Transition to electric arc furnace technology affects capital expenditure

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0

Net Income: -686.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.23 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -13.19 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 29.95% < 20% (prev 44.68%; Δ -14.72% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.06 > 3% & CFO -140.0m > Net Income -686.7m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 2.29 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (108.7m) vs 12m ago -18.33% < -2%
Gross Margin: -16.10% > 18% (prev 0.00%; Δ -1610 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 80.30% > 50% (prev 80.33%; Δ -0.02% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -9.02 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -373.3m / Interest Expense TTM 58.1m)

Altman Z'' 0.39

A: 0.27 (Total Current Assets 1.18b - Total Current Liabilities 515.6m) / Total Assets 2.44b
B: -0.22 (Retained Earnings -533.2m / Total Assets 2.44b)
C: -0.19 (EBIT TTM -523.8m / Avg Total Assets 2.77b)
D: 0.56 (Book Value of Equity 870.0m / Total Liabilities 1.56b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 0.39 = B

Beneish M -2.42

DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 256.4m/289.8m, Revenue 2.22b/2.49b)
GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins)
AQI: 2.56 (AQ_t 0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.00)
SGI: 0.89 (Revenue 2.22b / 2.49b)
TATA: -0.22 (NI -686.7m - CFO -140.0m) / TA 2.44b)
Beneish M-Score: -2.42 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB

What is the price of ASTL shares?

As of March 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.40 with a total of 1,626,528 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.78%, over one month by -10.57%, over three months by +8.11% and over the past year by -18.71%.

Is ASTL a buy, sell or hold?

Algoma Steel has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefor, it is recommend to hold ASTL.

StrongBuy: 0
Buy: 3
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ASTL price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	20	354.5%
Analysts Target Price	20	354.5%

ASTL Fundamental Data Overview March 06, 2026

P/E Forward = 7.0126
P/S = 0.2227
P/B = 0.7731
Revenue TTM = 2.22b USD
EBIT TTM = -523.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -373.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 632.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 111.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 744.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 739.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.15b USD (412.1m + Debt 744.1m - CCE 4.50m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.02 (Ebit TTM -523.8m / Interest Expense TTM 58.1m)
EV/FCF = -2.09x (Enterprise Value 1.15b / FCF TTM -550.5m)
FCF Yield = -47.80% (FCF TTM -550.5m / Enterprise Value 1.15b)
FCF Margin = -24.79% (FCF TTM -550.5m / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Net Margin = -30.92% (Net Income TTM -686.7m / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Gross Margin = -16.10% ((Revenue TTM 2.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -20.50% (prev -9.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.47 (Enterprise Value 1.15b / Total Assets 2.44b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.64% (Interest Expense 12.2m / Debt 744.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -413.8m (EBIT -523.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.29 (Total Current Assets 1.18b / Total Current Liabilities 515.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.85 (Debt 744.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 874.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.98 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 739.6m / EBITDA -373.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.34 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 739.6m / FCF TTM -550.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.29b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -24.83% (Net Income -686.7m / Total Assets 2.44b)
RoE = -53.24% (Net Income TTM -686.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.29b)
RoCE = -27.24% (EBIT -523.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.29b + L.T.Debt 632.8m))
RoIC = -21.79% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -413.8m / Invested Capital 1.90b)
WACC = 4.46% (E(412.1m)/V(1.16b) * Re(10.17%) + D(744.1m)/V(1.16b) * Rd(1.64%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.18%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -550.5m)
EPS Correlation: -68.87 | EPS CAGR: -19.15% | SUE: 1.58 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -77.53 | Revenue CAGR: -17.23% | SUE: 2.71 | # QB: 2
EPS next Year (2026-03-31): EPS=0.26 | Chg7d=+0.000 | Chg30d=+0.020 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+116.7% | Growth Revenue=+18.4%

Additional Sources for ASTL Stock

Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle