(ASTL) Algoma Steel - Overview
Stock: Flat/Sheet Steel, Plate Steel, By-Products
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.64% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.13% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -20.63% |
| Payout Consistency | 88.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 38.5% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 67.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.80 |
| Alpha | -73.68 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.574 |
| Beta Downside | 1.797 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 72.88% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.27 |
Description: ASTL Algoma Steel December 24, 2025
Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTL) is a vertically integrated steel producer headquartered in Sault Ste. Marie, Canada, with operations serving North American and global markets. The company manufactures a broad portfolio of flat-sheet and plate steel-including temper-rolled, cold-rolled, hot-rolled, and heat-treated products-targeting automotive OEMs, structural fabricators, and heavy-equipment makers, as well as specialized segments such as railcar construction, shipbuilding, and wind-energy components.
In its most recent fiscal quarter (Q4 2023), Algoma reported revenue of $1.02 billion, a 12 % year-over-year increase driven by higher steel prices and a 7 % rise in plant utilization to 78 %. Adjusted EBITDA reached $210 million, reflecting improved operating leverage as fixed-cost recovery accelerated amid a tighter supply environment.
Key economic drivers for Algoma include the resurgence of North-American construction activity-U.S. housing starts rose 4 % YoY in Q3 2024-and the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which is expected to boost demand for steel-intensive projects such as bridges and transit systems. Conversely, the company remains exposed to raw-material cost volatility (coking coal, iron ore) and cyclical demand in the automotive sector, which is currently undergoing a transition toward electric vehicles that may alter alloy specifications.
Beyond primary steel, Algoma monetizes a range of by-products (coke, slag, flue dust, and recycled metals), providing an ancillary revenue stream that can cushion margins when steel prices soften.
For a data-rich, model-ready deep-dive on ASTL’s valuation dynamics, see the detailed analysis on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: -686.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.23 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -13.19 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 29.95% < 20% (prev 44.68%; Δ -14.72% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.06 > 3% & CFO -140.0m > Net Income -686.7m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (108.7m) vs 12m ago -18.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -16.10% > 18% (prev 0.00%; Δ -1610 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 80.30% > 50% (prev 80.33%; Δ -0.02% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -9.02 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -373.3m / Interest Expense TTM 58.1m) |
Altman Z'' 0.39
| A: 0.27 (Total Current Assets 1.18b - Total Current Liabilities 515.6m) / Total Assets 2.44b |
| B: -0.22 (Retained Earnings -533.2m / Total Assets 2.44b) |
| C: -0.19 (EBIT TTM -523.8m / Avg Total Assets 2.77b) |
| D: 0.56 (Book Value of Equity 870.0m / Total Liabilities 1.56b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.39 = B |
Beneish M -2.42
| DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 256.4m/289.8m, Revenue 2.22b/2.49b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 2.56 (AQ_t 0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 0.89 (Revenue 2.22b / 2.49b) |
| TATA: -0.22 (NI -686.7m - CFO -140.0m) / TA 2.44b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.42 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
What is the price of ASTL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.93%, over one month by +2.70%, over three months by +4.76% and over the past year by -50.90%.
Is ASTL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ASTL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 20 | 378.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 20 | 378.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3.8 | -10.3% |
ASTL Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/S = 0.2152
P/B = 0.7511
Revenue TTM = 2.22b USD
EBIT TTM = -523.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -373.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 632.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 111.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 744.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 739.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.15b USD (412.1m + Debt 744.1m - CCE 4.50m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.02 (Ebit TTM -523.8m / Interest Expense TTM 58.1m)
EV/FCF = -2.09x (Enterprise Value 1.15b / FCF TTM -550.5m)
FCF Yield = -47.80% (FCF TTM -550.5m / Enterprise Value 1.15b)
FCF Margin = -24.79% (FCF TTM -550.5m / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Net Margin = -30.92% (Net Income TTM -686.7m / Revenue TTM 2.22b)
Gross Margin = -16.10% ((Revenue TTM 2.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -20.50% (prev -9.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.47 (Enterprise Value 1.15b / Total Assets 2.44b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.64% (Interest Expense 12.2m / Debt 744.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -413.8m (EBIT -523.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.29 (Total Current Assets 1.18b / Total Current Liabilities 515.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.85 (Debt 744.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 874.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.98 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 739.6m / EBITDA -373.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.34 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 739.6m / FCF TTM -550.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.29b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -24.83% (Net Income -686.7m / Total Assets 2.44b)
RoE = -53.24% (Net Income TTM -686.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.29b)
RoCE = -27.24% (EBIT -523.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.29b + L.T.Debt 632.8m))
RoIC = -21.79% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -413.8m / Invested Capital 1.90b)
WACC = 5.01% (E(412.1m)/V(1.16b) * Re(11.71%) + D(744.1m)/V(1.16b) * Rd(1.64%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 8.97%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -550.5m)
EPS Correlation: -68.87 | EPS CAGR: -19.15% | SUE: 2.76 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -77.53 | Revenue CAGR: -17.23% | SUE: 2.71 | # QB: 2
EPS next Year (2026-03-31): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=+0.020 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+116.7% | Growth Revenue=+18.4%