(ASTS) Ast Spacemobile - Ratings and Ratios
Satellite Constellation, Cellular Broadband, SpaceMobile Service
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 110% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 147% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -18.53% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.46 |
| Alpha | 131.23 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.97 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.659 |
| Beta | 2.117 |
| Beta Downside | 2.137 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 71.20% |
| Mean DD | 29.59% |
| Median DD | 31.67% |
Description: ASTS Ast Spacemobile October 14, 2025
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS) designs, builds, and operates the BlueBird satellite constellation from the United States, aiming to deliver a true cellular broadband network that can be accessed directly by standard smartphones without ground-based towers. The service is positioned for both commercial users-particularly those in rural or underserved areas-and government applications that require connectivity beyond terrestrial coverage. Founded in 2017 and headquartered in Midland, Texas, the firm is classified under the Wireless Telecommunication Services sub-industry.
As of Q3 2024 the company has launched two of its planned 18-satellite BlueBird nodes and reports a cash runway of roughly $120 million, sufficient to fund the next three launches under its current schedule. Recent partnerships with major carriers (e.g., a 2023 agreement with Verizon to integrate SpaceMobile’s network into its 5G ecosystem) and a $1.5 billion market-size estimate for global satellite-enabled cellular services underscore the macro-driving forces: expanding 5G rollout, rising demand for connectivity in remote locations, and regulatory support for non-geostationary satellite constellations.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of ASTS’s valuation assumptions and comparable peer metrics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income (-303.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.11m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.36 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -7.06pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 6170 % (prev 18.1k%; Δ -11.9kpp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO -164.9m > Net Income -303.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 9.56 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (272.8m) change vs 12m ago 75.29% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin -185.4% (prev -2078 %; Δ 1892 pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 1.10% (prev 0.30%; Δ 0.79pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -12.34 (EBITDA TTM -358.7m / Interest Expense TTM 32.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.49
| (A) 0.45 = (Total Current Assets 1.28b - Total Current Liabilities 133.6m) / Total Assets 2.55b |
| (B) -0.30 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -757.7m / Total Assets 2.55b |
| (C) -0.24 = EBIT TTM -402.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.69b |
| (D) -0.82 = Book Value of Equity -756.5m / Total Liabilities 924.9m |
| Total Rating: -0.49 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 26.94
| 1. Piotroski 0.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -5.85% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.58 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.34 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -45.73)% |
| 7. RoE -38.51% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -15.22% |
| 9. EPS Trend -51.20% |
What is the price of ASTS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.66%, over one month by -13.64%, over three months by +35.87% and over the past year by +168.18%.
Is ASTS a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ASTS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 68.2 | 11% |
| Analysts Target Price | 68.2 | 11% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 74.7 | 21.6% |
ASTS Fundamental Data Overview November 21, 2025
P/S = 870.2938
P/B = 13.0481
Beta = 2.725
Revenue TTM = 18.5m USD
EBIT TTM = -402.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -358.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 697.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 722.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -481.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.65b USD (16.13b + Debt 722.5m - CCE 1.20b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -12.34 (Ebit TTM -402.9m / Interest Expense TTM 32.6m)
FCF Yield = -5.85% (FCF TTM -916.0m / Enterprise Value 15.65b)
FCF Margin = -4943 % (FCF TTM -916.0m / Revenue TTM 18.5m)
Net Margin = -1640 % (Net Income TTM -303.8m / Revenue TTM 18.5m)
Gross Margin = -185.4% ((Revenue TTM 18.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 52.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 62.61% (prev -913.8%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.13 (Enterprise Value 15.65b / Total Assets 2.55b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.04% (Interest Expense 7.54m / Debt 722.5m)
Taxrate = -0.23% (negative due to tax credits) (374.0k / -163.5m)
NOPAT = -403.8m (EBIT -402.9m * (1 - -0.23%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 9.56 (Total Current Assets 1.28b / Total Current Liabilities 133.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.58 (Debt 722.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.24b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.34 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -481.8m / EBITDA -358.7m)
Debt / FCF = 0.53 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -481.8m / FCF TTM -916.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 788.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -11.91% (Net Income -303.8m / Total Assets 2.55b)
RoE = -38.51% (Net Income TTM -303.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 788.9m)
RoCE = -27.10% (EBIT -402.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 788.9m + L.T.Debt 697.6m))
RoIC = -32.45% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -403.8m / Invested Capital 1.24b)
WACC = 13.27% (E(16.13b)/V(16.85b) * Re(13.82%) + D(722.5m)/V(16.85b) * Rd(1.04%) * (1-Tc(-0.00)))
Discount Rate = 13.82% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 73.96%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -916.0m)
EPS Correlation: -51.20 | EPS CAGR: -11.49% | SUE: -0.76 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -15.22 | Revenue CAGR: 25.87% | SUE: -0.50 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.26 | Chg30d=+0.023 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.76 | Chg30d=-0.050 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+28.9% | Growth Revenue=+318.5%
Additional Sources for ASTS Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle