AVAH Stock Analysis: Aveanna Healthcare Holdings | NASDAQ
Medical Care Facilities | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.964m USD | 12M Return: 67.2% | US05356F1057 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 48.0M
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 97.3%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 5.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (NASDAQ: AVAH) is a diversified home care platform that delivers pediatric and adult healthcare services across the United States through three reporting segments: Private Duty Services (PDS), Home Health & Hospice (HHH), and Medical Solutions (MS). PDS provides in-home skilled nursing for medically complex children and adults, school nursing support, pediatric day healthcare, and personal/therapy care. HHH offers home health skilled nursing, therapy, and aide services, plus hospice care for patients with life-limiting illnesses. MS supplies enteral nutrition products-including formulas, supplies, and pumps-on a recurring or as-needed basis to adult and pediatric patients. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, and was incorporated in 2016, with an IPO in 2021.
The home healthcare sector is among the faster-growing areas within U.S. healthcare, supported by an aging population, rising prevalence of chronic and medically complex conditions, and payer and patient preference for lower-cost in-home settings over hospitals or skilled nursing facilities. Aveannas segment structure reflects two distinct business models within the space: a fee-for-service clinical care model in PDS and HHH (often reimbursed by Medicaid, Medicare, and managed care plans) and a recurring medical supply/distribution model in MS, which typically generates predictable subscription-like revenue.
- Private Duty Nursing segment drives organic revenue growth
- Caregiver wage inflation compresses home health operating margins
- Medicaid reimbursement rate cuts pressure pediatric nursing profitability
| Net Income: 274.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.44 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.57% < 20% (prev 1.64%; Δ 0.93% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 168.2m > Net Income 274.8m |
| Net Debt (1.45b) to EBITDA (299.1m): 4.85 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.16 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (224.9m) vs 12m ago 6.85% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 31.95% > 18% (prev 33.33%; Δ -1.37% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 134.3% > 50% (prev 123.0%; Δ 11.29% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.24 > 6 (EBIT TTM 278.8m / Interest Expense TTM 124.7m) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 478.1m - Total Current Liabilities 411.3m) / Total Assets 2.11b |
| B: -0.51 (Retained Earnings -1.08b / Total Assets 2.11b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 278.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.94b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 287.3m / Total Liabilities 1.82b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.32 = B |
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 341.0m/320.6m, Revenue 2.60b/2.18b) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 33.33% / 31.95%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.75 / AQ_t-1 0.71) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 2.60b / 2.18b) |
| TATA: 0.05 (NI 274.8m - CFO 168.2m) / TA 2.11b) |
| Beneish M = -2.91 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.08 with a total of 2,372,090 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.23%, over one month by +57.32%, over three months by +101.14% and over the past year by +67.22%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.40 (which is 4.8% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.88. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AVAH.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 13.9 | -1.3% |
P/E Trailing = 10.864
P/E Forward = 14.2045
P/S = 1.1389
P/B = 10.3382
Revenue TTM = 2.60b USD
EBIT TTM = 278.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 299.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.28b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 194.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.55b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 42.4m
Net Debt = 1.45b USD (calculated: Debt 1.55b - CCE 97.2m)
Enterprise Value = 4.41b USD (2.96b + Debt 1.55b - CCE 97.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.24 (Ebit TTM 278.8m / Interest Expense TTM 124.7m)
EV/FCF = 26.62x (Enterprise Value 4.41b / FCF TTM 165.8m)
FCF Yield = 3.76% (FCF TTM 165.8m / Enterprise Value 4.41b)
FCF Margin = 6.37% (FCF TTM 165.8m / Revenue TTM 2.60b)
Net Margin = 10.56% (Net Income TTM 274.8m / Revenue TTM 2.60b)
Gross Margin = 31.95% ((Revenue TTM 2.60b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.77b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.59% (prev 31.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.10 (Enterprise Value 4.41b / Total Assets 2.11b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.06% (Interest Expense 124.7m / Debt 1.55b)
Taxrate = 28.65% (16.2m / 56.5m)
NOPAT = 198.9m (EBIT 278.8m * (1 - 28.65%))
Current Ratio = 1.16 (Total Current Assets 478.1m / Total Current Liabilities 411.3m)
Debt / Equity = 5.39 (Debt 1.55b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 287.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.85 (Net Debt 1.45b / EBITDA 299.1m)
Debt / FCF = 8.75 (Net Debt 1.45b / FCF TTM 165.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 182.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.17% (Net Income 274.8m / Total Assets 2.11b)
RoE = 150.2% (Net Income TTM 274.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 182.9m)
RoCE = 19.00% (EBIT 278.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 182.9m + L.T.Debt 1.28b))
RoIC = 11.10% (NOPAT 198.9m / Invested Capital 1.79b)
WACC = 9.99% (E(2.96b)/V(4.51b) * Re(12.20%) + D(1.55b)/V(4.51b) * Rd(8.06%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 12.20% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.81 | Cagr: 7.21%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.86% ; FCFF base≈130.9m ; Y1≈150.1m ; Y5≈220.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 5.17 (EV 2.58b - Net Debt 1.45b = Equity 1.13b / Shares 218.3m; r=9.99% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.11 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 97.28 | Revenue CAGR: 13.41% | SUE: 1.95 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=+17.77% | Revisions=+75% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.82 | Chg30d=+16.46% | Revisions=+77% | GrowthEPS=+37.2% | GrowthRev=+10.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.90 | Chg30d=+15.70% | Revisions=+77% | GrowthEPS=+9.1% | GrowthRev=+7.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +91% (up=29, down=0)