AVAH Stock Analysis: Aveanna Healthcare Holdings | NASDAQ
Medical Care Facilities | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.982m USD | 12M Return: 129.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 18.6M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 96.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 5.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (NASDAQ: AVAH) is a diversified home care platform that delivers pediatric and adult healthcare services across the United States through three reporting segments: Private Duty Services (PDS), Home Health & Hospice (HHH), and Medical Solutions (MS). PDS provides in-home skilled nursing for medically complex children and adults, school nursing support, pediatric day healthcare, and personal/therapy care. HHH offers home health skilled nursing, therapy, and aide services, plus hospice care for patients with life-limiting illnesses. MS supplies enteral nutrition products-including formulas, supplies, and pumps-on a recurring or as-needed basis to adult and pediatric patients. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, and was incorporated in 2016, with an IPO in 2021.
The home healthcare sector is among the faster-growing areas within U.S. healthcare, supported by an aging population, rising prevalence of chronic and medically complex conditions, and payer and patient preference for lower-cost in-home settings over hospitals or skilled nursing facilities. Aveannas segment structure reflects two distinct business models within the space: a fee-for-service clinical care model in PDS and HHH (often reimbursed by Medicaid, Medicare, and managed care plans) and a recurring medical supply/distribution model in MS, which typically generates predictable subscription-like revenue.
- Private Duty Nursing segment drives organic revenue growth
- Caregiver wage inflation compresses home health operating margins
- Medicaid reimbursement rate cuts pressure pediatric nursing profitability
| Net Income: 261.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.33% < 20% (prev 0.92%; Δ 6.41% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 138.8m > Net Income 261.5m |
| Net Debt (1.35b) to EBITDA (299.2m): 4.52 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.47 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (222.1m) vs 12m ago 7.69% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.67% > 18% (prev 32.17%; Δ 0.51% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 137.0% > 50% (prev 126.0%; Δ 10.92% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.07 > 6 (EBIT TTM 274.7m / Interest Expense TTM 132.9m) |
| A: 0.09 (Total Current Assets 575.3m - Total Current Liabilities 390.4m) / Total Assets 2.02b |
| B: -0.55 (Retained Earnings -1.12b / Total Assets 2.02b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 274.7m / Avg Total Assets 1.84b) |
| D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 240.1m / Total Liabilities 1.78b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.05 = B |
| DSRI: 0.91 (Receivables 335.6m/305.3m, Revenue 2.52b/2.09b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 32.17% / 32.67%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.69 / AQ_t-1 0.72) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 2.52b / 2.09b) |
| TATA: 0.06 (NI 261.5m - CFO 138.8m) / TA 2.02b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.70 with a total of 1,710,555 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.59%, over one month by +40.78%, over three months by +55.95% and over the past year by +129.31%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.00 (which is 7.2% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Aveanna Healthcare Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.88. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AVAH.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 10.1 | 3.6% |
P/E Trailing = 7.5207
P/E Forward = 12.1212
P/S = 0.7857
P/B = 8.2252
Revenue TTM = 2.52b USD
EBIT TTM = 274.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 299.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.28b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 193.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.54b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 40.1m
Net Debt = 1.35b USD (calculated: Debt 1.54b - CCE 189.3m)
Enterprise Value = 3.33b USD (1.98b + Debt 1.54b - CCE 189.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.07 (Ebit TTM 274.7m / Interest Expense TTM 132.9m)
EV/FCF = 24.41x (Enterprise Value 3.33b / FCF TTM 136.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.10% (FCF TTM 136.6m / Enterprise Value 3.33b)
FCF Margin = 5.42% (FCF TTM 136.6m / Revenue TTM 2.52b)
Net Margin = 10.37% (Net Income TTM 261.5m / Revenue TTM 2.52b)
Gross Margin = 32.67% ((Revenue TTM 2.52b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.70b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.24% (prev 31.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.65 (Enterprise Value 3.33b / Total Assets 2.02b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.62% (Interest Expense 132.9m / Debt 1.54b)
Taxrate = 7.39% (3.32m / 45.0m)
NOPAT = 254.4m (EBIT 274.7m * (1 - 7.39%))
Current Ratio = 1.47 (Total Current Assets 575.3m / Total Current Liabilities 390.4m)
Debt / Equity = 6.43 (Debt 1.54b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 240.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.52 (Net Debt 1.35b / EBITDA 299.2m)
Debt / FCF = 9.90 (Net Debt 1.35b / FCF TTM 136.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 108.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.20% (Net Income 261.5m / Total Assets 2.02b)
RoE = 241.5% (Net Income TTM 261.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 108.3m)
RoCE = 19.73% (EBIT 274.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 108.3m + L.T.Debt 1.28b))
RoIC = 14.97% (NOPAT 254.4m / Invested Capital 1.70b)
WACC = 11.91% (E(1.98b)/V(3.52b) * Re(14.96%) + D(1.54b)/V(3.52b) * Rd(8.62%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 14.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 6.95%
[DCF] Terminal Value 67.36% ; FCFF base≈93.4m ; Y1≈107.1m ; Y5≈157.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 0.46 (EV 1.45b - Net Debt 1.35b = Equity 100.0m / Shares 217.8m; r=11.91% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.30 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 96.44 | Revenue CAGR: 11.96% | SUE: 1.97 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=+5.59% | Revisions=+55% | Analysts=11
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=+4.68% | Revisions=+30% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.70 | Chg30d=+12.81% | Revisions=+79% | GrowthEPS=+16.8% | GrowthRev=+8.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+11.53% | Revisions=+79% | GrowthEPS=+9.9% | GrowthRev=+5.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +78% (up=34, down=3)