AVAV Stock Analysis: AeroVironment | NASDAQ
Aerospace & Defense | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 8.225m USD | 12M Return: -37.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 284M
EPS Trend: 12.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 92.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ: AVAV) designs, develops, produces, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for U.S. government agencies and international customers. The company operates in two segments: Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber and Directed Energy, and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, where it was incorporated in 1971. As a mid-cap player in the GICS Aerospace & Defense sub-industry, AVAV participates in a sector where the bulk of revenue for similarly situated contractors is typically derived from long-term U.S. Department of Defense and allied-government contracts.
The Autonomous Systems segment centers on uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS), including small and medium drones, the Kinesis command-and-control software suite, and counter-UAS / precision strike offerings such as loitering munitions, radio frequency and kinetic C-UAS solutions, and electronic warfare systems. The segment also covers autonomy and AI technologies, unmanned maritime and ground systems, and high-altitude pseudo-satellites, all of which align with broader defense trends toward attritable, software-defined unmanned platforms.
The Space, Cyber and Directed Energy segment supplies digital beamforming antenna tiles for multi-satellite communications, laser communications systems, and space-qualified hardware for line-of-sight stabilization and control across low, medium, geostationary, and cislunar orbits. It also provides phased-array antenna technology used in hypersonic telemetry and missile tracking, directed energy solutions, and the HaloCortex AI-powered OSINT analysis platform for defense and commercial customers.
- DoD drone and loitering munitions demand accelerates Switchblade orders
- Space Cyber and Directed Energy segment margins expand with new contracts
- Competition intensifies from Anduril and Shield AI in autonomous systems market
| Net Income: -265.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.93 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 73.41% < 20% (prev 52.93%; Δ 20.48% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.01 > 3% & CFO -78.4m > Net Income -265.1m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 4.30 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (49.1m) vs 12m ago 73.67% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 22.73% > 18% (prev 39.35%; Δ -16.62% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 57.83% > 50% (prev 73.23%; Δ -15.41% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -4.01 > 6 (EBIT TTM -311.0m / Interest Expense TTM 77.5m) |
| A: 0.25 (Total Current Assets 1.89b - Total Current Liabilities 439.2m) / Total Assets 5.72b |
| B: 0.00 (Retained Earnings 9.18m / Total Assets 5.72b) |
| C: -0.09 (EBIT TTM -311.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.42b) |
| D: 3.34 (Book Value of Equity 4.40b / Total Liabilities 1.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.57 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.94 (Receivables 886.6m/392.6m, Revenue 1.98b/820.6m) |
| GMI: 1.73 (GM 39.35% / 22.73%) |
| AQI: 1.62 (AQ_t 0.62 / AQ_t-1 0.39) |
| SGI: 2.41 (Revenue 1.98b / 820.6m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI -265.1m - CFO -78.4m) / TA 5.72b) |
| Beneish M = -1.04 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 148.40 with a total of 2,286,747 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -13.94%, over one month by -15.93%, over three months by -16.49% and over the past year by -37.32%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 132.10 (which is 11% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
AeroVironment has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.37. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AVAV.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 258.6 | 74.3% |
P/E Forward = 60.9756
P/S = 4.1608
P/B = 2.1954
P/EG = 1.5652
Revenue TTM = 1.98b USD
EBIT TTM = -311.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -46.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 729.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 17.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 940.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 105.8m
Net Debt = 308.3m USD (calculated: Debt 940.6m - CCE 632.3m)
Enterprise Value = 8.53b USD (8.23b + Debt 940.6m - CCE 632.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -4.01 (Ebit TTM -311.0m / Interest Expense TTM 77.5m)
EV/FCF = -69.34x (Enterprise Value 8.53b / FCF TTM -123.1m)
FCF Yield = -1.44% (FCF TTM -123.1m / Enterprise Value 8.53b)
FCF Margin = -6.23% (FCF TTM -123.1m / Revenue TTM 1.98b)
Net Margin = -13.41% (Net Income TTM -265.1m / Revenue TTM 1.98b)
Gross Margin = 22.73% ((Revenue TTM 1.98b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.53b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.58% (prev 17.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.49 (Enterprise Value 8.53b / Total Assets 5.72b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.24% (Interest Expense 77.5m / Debt 940.6m)
Taxrate = 21.57% (13.9m / 64.5m)
NOPAT = -243.9m (EBIT -311.0m * (1 - 21.57%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 4.30 (Total Current Assets 1.89b / Total Current Liabilities 439.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.21 (Debt 940.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.40b)
Debt / EBITDA = -6.71 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 308.3m / EBITDA -46.0m)
Debt / FCF = -2.51 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 308.3m / FCF TTM -123.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.38b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.76% (Net Income -265.1m / Total Assets 5.72b)
RoE = -6.05% (Net Income TTM -265.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.38b)
RoCE = -6.09% (EBIT -311.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.38b + L.T.Debt 729.0m))
RoIC = -4.69% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -243.9m / Invested Capital 5.20b)
WACC = 11.56% (E(8.23b)/V(9.17b) * Re(12.14%) + D(940.6m)/V(9.17b) * Rd(8.24%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 12.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 64.44 | Cagr: 28.25%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -123.1m)
EPS Correlation: 12.44 | EPS CAGR: 2.50% | SUE: 1.19 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 92.04 | Revenue CAGR: 48.91% | SUE: 2.39 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-07-31): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=-55.93% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=14
EPS next Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.57 | Chg30d=-33.18% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2027-04-30): EPS=3.24 | Chg30d=-20.10% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-2.2% | GrowthRev=+11.1%
EPS next Year (2028-04-30): EPS=4.62 | Chg30d=-14.26% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+42.8% | GrowthRev=+14.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -29% (up=1, down=3)