(AXGN) Axogen - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US05463X1063

Allograft, Connector, Protector, Cap

Stock: Health Care Equipment
Age 35.8y

MCap 1,440m
Avg Vol 711K (22.6M USD)

Beta 0.728
Volatility 63.34%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 156.76%
EPS Trend: 73.2%

Last SUE: -1.54
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 18.75%
Rev. Trend: 98.0%

Last SUE: 1.79
Qual. Beats: 2

Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	63.3%
Value at Risk 5%th	85.5%
Relative Tail Risk	-17.92%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	1.11
Alpha	51.36
CAGR/Max DD	0.63

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.411
Beta	0.728
Beta Downside	0.858

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	67.03%
Mean DD	22.23%
Median DD	18.45%

Description: AXGN Axogen December 27, 2025

Axogen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXGN) develops and commercializes a portfolio of biologically-derived devices for peripheral nerve regeneration, including the off-the-shelf Avance Nerve Graft, several porcine-derived extracellular-matrix (ECM) coaptation and protection products (AxoGuard Nerve Connector, Protector, HA+ Protector, and Nerve Cap), and markets them to hospitals, surgery centers, military facilities, and specialists such as plastic, orthopedic hand, and oral-maxillofacial surgeons. The company is headquartered in Alachua, Florida, and operates within the Health Care Equipment sub-industry.

Key recent metrics (FY 2024) show revenue of roughly $96 million, with the Avance line contributing about 80 % of sales, and a cash runway of ~$150 million after a net loss of $45 million-reflecting ongoing investment in FDA-clearance pipelines and reimbursement negotiations. The peripheral-nerve-repair market is projected by industry analysts to grow at a 7 % CAGR through 2030, driven by an aging population, increasing trauma incidence, and expanding Medicare coverage for nerve-repair procedures. A material risk factor is the reliance on a single dominant product (Avance) and the competitive threat from emerging synthetic conduits and regenerative-medicine startups.

For a deeper, data-driven view of AXGN’s valuation dynamics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical platform worth a quick look.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5

Net Income (-2.10m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 12.9m TTM)

FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 6.47pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 40.26% (prev 34.96%; Δ 5.31pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.03 (>3.0%) and CFO 6.51m > Net Income -2.10m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (44.0m) to EBITDA (21.5m) ratio: 2.05 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 4.09 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (45.9m) change vs 12m ago 4.61% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 74.76% (prev 76.40%; Δ -1.63pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 105.2% (prev 94.20%; Δ 10.95pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 0.87 (EBITDA TTM 21.5m / Interest Expense TTM 16.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' -4.56

(A) 0.40 = (Total Current Assets 114.5m - Total Current Liabilities 28.0m) / Total Assets 216.4m

(B) -1.36 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -293.8m / Total Assets 216.4m

warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.36 — check mapping/units

(D) -3.07 = Book Value of Equity -293.3m / Total Liabilities 95.6m

Total Rating: -4.56 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 59.75

1. Piotroski 3.50pt

2. FCF Yield 0.19%

3. FCF Margin 1.33%

4. Debt/Equity 0.56

5. Debt/Ebitda 2.05

6. ROIC - WACC (= -1.70)%

7. RoE -1.90%

8. Rev. Trend 97.99%

9. EPS Trend 73.18%

What is the price of AXGN shares?

As of January 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 31.02 with a total of 519,342 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.68%, over one month by -2.15%, over three months by +82.79% and over the past year by +63.52%.

Is AXGN a buy, sell or hold?

Axogen has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.71. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AXGN.

Strong Buy: 5
Buy: 2
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AXGN price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	37	19.3%
Analysts Target Price	37	19.3%
ValueRay Target Price	32.7	5.4%

AXGN Fundamental Data Overview January 17, 2026

P/E Forward = 78.125
P/S = 6.7065
P/B = 11.9195
Revenue TTM = 214.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 14.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 21.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 48.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.34m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 67.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 44.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.47b USD (1.44b + Debt 67.9m - CCE 35.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.87 (Ebit TTM 14.1m / Interest Expense TTM 16.2m)
EV/FCF = 516.0x (Enterprise Value 1.47b / FCF TTM 2.85m)
FCF Yield = 0.19% (FCF TTM 2.85m / Enterprise Value 1.47b)
FCF Margin = 1.33% (FCF TTM 2.85m / Revenue TTM 214.7m)
Net Margin = -0.98% (Net Income TTM -2.10m / Revenue TTM 214.7m)
Gross Margin = 74.76% ((Revenue TTM 214.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 54.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.55% (prev 74.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.80 (Enterprise Value 1.47b / Total Assets 216.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 15.04% (Interest Expense 10.2m / Debt 67.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 11.2m (EBIT 14.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 4.09 (Total Current Assets 114.5m / Total Current Liabilities 28.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.56 (Debt 67.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 120.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.05 (Net Debt 44.0m / EBITDA 21.5m)
Debt / FCF = 15.43 (Net Debt 44.0m / FCF TTM 2.85m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 110.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.03% (Net Income -2.10m / Total Assets 216.4m)
RoE = -1.90% (Net Income TTM -2.10m / Total Stockholder Equity 110.6m)
RoCE = 8.91% (EBIT 14.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 110.6m + L.T.Debt 48.2m))
RoIC = 7.05% (NOPAT 11.2m / Invested Capital 158.4m)
WACC = 8.75% (E(1.44b)/V(1.51b) * Re(8.60%) + D(67.9m)/V(1.51b) * Rd(15.04%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 3.27%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 66.89% ; FCFF base≈2.85m ; Y1≈1.87m ; Y5≈854.5k
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 14.8m - Net Debt 44.0m = -29.2m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 73.18 | EPS CAGR: 156.8% | SUE: -1.54 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.99 | Revenue CAGR: 18.75% | SUE: 1.79 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=+0.006 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.50 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+68.9% | Growth Revenue=+14.7%

Additional Sources for AXGN Stock

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