AXGN Stock Analysis: Axogen | NASDAQ
Medical Devices | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.198m USD | 12M Return: 172.4% | US05463X1063 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 52.5M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 99.7%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Axogen, Inc. (NASDAQ: AXGN) is a U.S.-based medical device company specializing in the development and commercialization of technologies for peripheral nerve regeneration and repair. Its product portfolio includes processed nerve allografts (Avance Nerve Graft), coaptation aids, nerve protectors, and nerve caps, as well as amniotic membrane allografts, all aimed at surgically addressing peripheral nerve injuries. The company also provides tissue recovery, processing, and sterilization services, and sells primarily to hospitals, surgery centers, and military hospitals, targeting plastic reconstructive, orthopedic hand, and oral and maxillofacial surgeons through independent distributors. Axogen is headquartered in Alachua, Florida.
Axogen operates in the Health Care Equipment sub-industry, a segment that includes manufacturers of medical devices and surgical implants. Peripheral nerve repair is a relatively specialized niche within this broader space, competing with autograft procedures (using the patients own nerve tissue) and alternative synthetic or biologic conduits. The companys emphasis on allograft and ECM-based (extracellular matrix) products reflects a broader industry trend toward regenerative medicine and biologically derived surgical implants.
- Avance Nerve Graft revenue growth accelerates procedure adoption
- Reimbursement coverage expansions drive surgeon adoption rates
- Competition from synthetic nerve conduits pressures pricing
| Net Income: -31.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.65 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 150.5% < 20% (prev 40.26%; Δ 110.2% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 22.6m > Net Income -31.9m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 12.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (61.5m) vs 12m ago 34.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.18% > 18% (prev 74.76%; Δ -0.58% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 69.63% > 50% (prev 99.22%; Δ -29.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -12.49 > 6 (EBIT TTM -30.1m / Interest Expense TTM 2.41m) |
| A: 0.73 (Total Current Assets 438.1m - Total Current Liabilities 36.5m) / Total Assets 550.3m |
| B: -0.59 (Retained Earnings -325.7m / Total Assets 550.3m) |
| C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -30.1m / Avg Total Assets 383.4m) |
| D: 9.15 (Book Value of Equity 496.1m / Total Liabilities 54.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 11.93 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 34.0m/30.8m, Revenue 266.9m/214.7m) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 74.76% / 74.18%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 266.9m / 214.7m) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI -31.9m - CFO 22.6m) / TA 550.3m) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 49.25 with a total of 9,279,558 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +35.01%, over one month by +13.58%, over three months by +19.68% and over the past year by +172.40%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 47.30 (which is 4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Axogen has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.82. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AXGN.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 53.1 | 7.8% |
P/E Forward = 86.2069
P/S = 8.7502
P/B = 8.7072
P/EG = 99.0419
Revenue TTM = 266.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -30.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -21.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 48.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.83m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 70.3m USD (corrected: LT Debt 48.4m + ST Debt 1.83m) + Leases 20.1m
Net Debt = -277.8m USD (calculated: Debt 70.3m - CCE 348.1m)
Enterprise Value = 1.92b USD (2.20b + Debt 70.3m - CCE 348.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -12.49 (Ebit TTM -30.1m / Interest Expense TTM 2.41m)
EV/FCF = 117.7x (Enterprise Value 1.92b / FCF TTM 16.3m)
FCF Yield = 0.85% (FCF TTM 16.3m / Enterprise Value 1.92b)
FCF Margin = 6.11% (FCF TTM 16.3m / Revenue TTM 266.9m)
Net Margin = -11.96% (Net Income TTM -31.9m / Revenue TTM 266.9m)
Gross Margin = 74.18% ((Revenue TTM 266.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 68.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.81% (prev 72.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.49 (Enterprise Value 1.92b / Total Assets 550.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.43% (Interest Expense 2.41m / Debt 70.3m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -23.8m (EBIT -30.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 12.02 (Total Current Assets 438.1m / Total Current Liabilities 36.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.14 (Debt 70.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 496.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 13.08 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -277.8m / EBITDA -21.2m)
Debt / FCF = -17.03 (Net Debt -277.8m / FCF TTM 16.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 281.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.33% (Net Income -31.9m / Total Assets 550.3m)
RoE = -11.34% (Net Income TTM -31.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 281.5m)
RoCE = -9.14% (EBIT -30.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 281.5m + L.T.Debt 48.4m))
RoIC = -4.74% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -23.8m / Invested Capital 502.4m)
WACC = 7.45% (E(2.20b)/V(2.27b) * Re(7.60%) + D(70.3m)/V(2.27b) * Rd(3.43%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 82.79 | Cagr: 16.41%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈10.9m ; Y1≈12.5m ; Y5≈18.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 9.46 (EV 277.5m - Net Debt -277.8m = Equity 555.2m / Shares 58.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.73 | Revenue CAGR: 20.47% | SUE: 1.56 | # QB: 3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.47 | Chg30d=+2.38% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+62.9% | GrowthRev=+26.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=+6.53% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+53.6% | GrowthRev=+28.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -18% (up=3, down=5)