AXGN Stock Analysis: Axogen | NASDAQ
Medical Devices | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.445m USD | 12M Return: 236.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 69.6M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Axogen, Inc. is a medical device company specializing in the development and commercialization of technologies for peripheral nerve regeneration and repair. Its product portfolio includes processed nerve allografts (Avance Nerve Graft), coaptation aids (Axoguard Nerve Connector), nerve protection wraps (Axoguard Nerve Protector and HA+ Nerve Protector), a nerve cap, and a soft tissue matrix (Avive+ Soft Tissue Matrix), along with the proprietary Avance Method for processing donor human peripheral nerve tissue.
The company sells primarily to hospitals, surgery centers, and military hospitals, reaching surgeons-particularly plastic reconstructive, orthopedic hand, and oral and maxillofacial specialists-through independent in-country distributors. Axogen is also involved in peripheral nerve tissue recovery, donor screening, processing, packaging, and sterilization. It is headquartered in Alachua, Florida.
Operating within the Health Care Equipment sub-industry, Axogen occupies a specialized niche in regenerative medicine focused on surgical solutions for traumatic nerve injuries. As a U.S. mid-cap issuer, it combines medical device commercialization with biologics processing, distinguishing it from broader diversified medical equipment peers.
- Avance Nerve Graft revenue accelerates amid surgeon adoption gains
- Gross margin expansion continues as production scales efficiently
- Medicare reimbursement coverage decisions shape procedure volume outlook
| Net Income: -31.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.99 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 66.65% < 20% (prev 36.67%; Δ 29.98% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 15.6m > Net Income -31.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 7.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (51.6m) vs 12m ago 14.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.01% > 18% (prev 74.18%; Δ 0.84% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 98.06% > 50% (prev 99.16%; Δ -1.11% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.15 > 6 (EBIT TTM -16.9m / Interest Expense TTM 14.6m) |
| A: 0.55 (Total Current Assets 184.7m - Total Current Liabilities 26.0m) / Total Assets 289.5m |
| B: -1.13 (Retained Earnings -326.5m / Total Assets 289.5m) |
| C: -0.07 (EBIT TTM -16.9m / Avg Total Assets 242.8m) |
| D: 5.48 (Book Value of Equity 244.8m / Total Liabilities 44.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.21 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 28.3m/26.3m, Revenue 238.1m/194.5m) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 74.18% / 75.01%) |
| AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.22 (Revenue 238.1m / 194.5m) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI -31.5m - CFO 15.6m) / TA 289.5m) |
| Beneish M = -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 40.58 with a total of 1,948,809 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -11.57%, over one month by -1.84%, over three months by +26.97% and over the past year by +236.76%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 37.70 (which is 7.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Axogen has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.71. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AXGN.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 50.8 | 25.1% |
P/E Forward = 400.0
P/S = 10.2668
P/B = 9.9792
P/EG = 99.0419
Revenue TTM = 238.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -16.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -8.24m USD
Long Term Debt = 48.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 2.12m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 71.1m USD (corrected: LT Debt 48.4m + ST Debt 2.12m) + Leases 20.6m
Net Debt = -11.5m USD (calculated: Debt 71.1m - CCE 82.7m)
Enterprise Value = 2.43b USD (2.44b + Debt 71.1m - CCE 82.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.15 (Ebit TTM -16.9m / Interest Expense TTM 14.6m)
EV/FCF = 272.4x (Enterprise Value 2.43b / FCF TTM 8.93m)
FCF Yield = 0.37% (FCF TTM 8.93m / Enterprise Value 2.43b)
FCF Margin = 3.75% (FCF TTM 8.93m / Revenue TTM 238.1m)
Net Margin = -13.21% (Net Income TTM -31.5m / Revenue TTM 238.1m)
Gross Margin = 75.01% ((Revenue TTM 238.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 59.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.16% (prev 74.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.40 (Enterprise Value 2.43b / Total Assets 289.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 20.52% (Interest Expense 14.6m / Debt 71.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -13.3m (EBIT -16.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 7.10 (Total Current Assets 184.7m / Total Current Liabilities 26.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.29 (Debt 71.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 244.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.40 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -11.5m / EBITDA -8.24m)
Debt / FCF = -1.29 (Net Debt -11.5m / FCF TTM 8.93m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 151.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -12.95% (Net Income -31.5m / Total Assets 289.5m)
RoE = -20.74% (Net Income TTM -31.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 151.7m)
RoCE = -8.42% (EBIT -16.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 151.7m + L.T.Debt 48.4m))
RoIC = -5.25% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -13.3m / Invested Capital 253.7m)
WACC = 10.68% (E(2.44b)/V(2.52b) * Re(10.52%) + D(71.1m)/V(2.52b) * Rd(20.52%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 82.22 | Cagr: 8.38%
[DCF] Terminal Value 70.81% ; FCFF base≈5.43m ; Y1≈6.23m ; Y5≈9.17m
[DCF] Fair Price = 2.05 (EV 97.6m - Net Debt -11.5m = Equity 109.1m / Shares 53.2m; r=10.68% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.80 | Revenue CAGR: 18.81% | SUE: 1.89 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=-16.12% | Revisions=-70% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=-5.62% | Revisions=-44% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=-8.55% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+68.5% | GrowthRev=+20.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=-3.99% | Revisions=-22% | GrowthEPS=+49.1% | GrowthRev=+17.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -59% (up=4, down=20)