(AXGN) Axogen - Overview
Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Medical Devices | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 2.175m USD | Total Return: 266.8% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 36.1M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
High Debt/EBITDA (42.8) with thin interest coverage (-0.6)
Interest Coverage Ratio -0.6 is critical
Altman Z'' -7.99 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Tailwinds
Supp Ema20, Rs Leader, Idiosyncratic Leader
Axogen, Inc. (AXGN) specializes in the development and commercialization of surgical solutions for peripheral nerve regeneration and repair. The company’s portfolio includes processed nerve allografts, nerve connectors, and protective wraps designed to restore function and protect damaged nerves. These products serve a critical niche within the Health Care Equipment sector, specifically targeting the surgical repair of nerve discontinuities and soft tissue injuries.
The business model relies on a proprietary processing method for human and porcine tissues, which are then distributed to hospitals, surgery centers, and military facilities. Sales are primarily driven by technical consultations with plastic reconstructive, orthopedic, and maxillofacial surgeons. Unlike synthetic alternatives, Axogen’s allograft products are designed to mimic the natural structural environment of human nerves to facilitate better patient outcomes.
A deeper look at ValueRay can provide further context on the company’s valuation and sector standing. Headquartered in Florida, Axogen maintains control over the entire supply chain, including tissue recovery, testing, sterilization, and distribution.
- FDA approval of Avance Nerve Graft BLA ensures long-term regulatory market exclusivity
- Surgeon adoption of nerve allografts drives core revenue growth in trauma cases
- Expansion into breast reconstruction and oral surgery markets increases total addressable market
- Gross margin stability depends on efficient human tissue processing and supply chain
- Shift toward direct sales force increases operating expenses while targeting higher volumes
| Net Income: -31.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.99 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 66.65% < 20% (prev 36.67%; Δ 29.98% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 15.6m > Net Income -31.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 7.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (51.6m) vs 12m ago 14.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.01% > 18% (prev 0.74%; Δ 7.43k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 98.06% > 50% (prev 99.16%; Δ -1.11% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.62 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -269k / Interest Expense TTM 14.6m) |
| A: 0.55 (Total Current Assets 184.7m - Total Current Liabilities 26.0m) / Total Assets 289.5m |
| B: -1.13 (Retained Earnings -326.5m / Total Assets 289.5m) |
| C: -0.04 (EBIT TTM -9.02m / Avg Total Assets 242.8m) |
| D: -7.30 (Book Value of Equity -326.0m / Total Liabilities 44.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -7.99 = D |
| DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 28.3m/26.3m, Revenue 238.1m/194.5m) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 75.01% / 74.18%) |
| AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.22 (Revenue 238.1m / 194.5m) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI -31.5m - CFO 15.6m) / TA 289.5m) |
| Beneish M = -3.22 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of May 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 41.45 with a total of 688,646 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.19%,
over one month by +5.23%,
over three months by +29.94% and
over the past year by +266.81%.
Axogen has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.71. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AXGN.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 50.8 | 22.5% |
P/E Forward = 357.1429
P/S = 9.1345
P/B = 8.8822
P/EG = 99.0419
Revenue TTM = 238.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -9.02m USD
EBITDA TTM = -269k USD
Long Term Debt = 48.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 2.12m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 71.1m USD (corrected: LT Debt 48.4m + ST Debt 2.12m) + Leases 20.6m
Net Debt = -11.5m USD (calculated: Debt 71.1m - CCE 82.7m)
Enterprise Value = 2.16b USD (2.17b + Debt 71.1m - CCE 82.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.62 (Ebit TTM -9.02m / Interest Expense TTM 14.6m)
EV/FCF = 242.2x (Enterprise Value 2.16b / FCF TTM 8.93m)
FCF Yield = 0.41% (FCF TTM 8.93m / Enterprise Value 2.16b)
FCF Margin = 3.75% (FCF TTM 8.93m / Revenue TTM 238.1m)
Net Margin = -13.21% (Net Income TTM -31.5m / Revenue TTM 238.1m)
Gross Margin = 75.01% ((Revenue TTM 238.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 59.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.16% (prev 74.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 7.47 (Enterprise Value 2.16b / Total Assets 289.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 20.52% (Interest Expense 14.6m / Debt 71.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -7.13m (EBIT -9.02m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 7.10 (Total Current Assets 184.7m / Total Current Liabilities 26.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.29 (Debt 71.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 244.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 42.79 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -11.5m / EBITDA -269k)
Debt / FCF = -1.29 (Net Debt -11.5m / FCF TTM 8.93m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 151.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -12.95% (Net Income -31.5m / Total Assets 289.5m)
RoE = -6.58% (Net Income TTM -31.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 478.2m)
RoCE = -1.71% (EBIT -9.02m / Capital Employed (Equity 478.2m + L.T.Debt 48.4m))
RoIC = -3.90% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -7.13m / Invested Capital 182.9m)
WACC = 10.55% (E(2.17b)/V(2.25b) * Re(10.36%) + D(71.1m)/V(2.25b) * Rd(20.52%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 82.22 | Cagr: 8.38%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.21% ; FCFF base≈5.43m ; Y1≈6.23m ; Y5≈9.17m
[DCF] Fair Price = 2.08 (EV 99.3m - Net Debt -11.5m = Equity 110.9m / Shares 53.2m; r=10.55% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.80 | Revenue CAGR: 18.81% | SUE: 1.89 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.12 | Chg30d=-18.60% | Revisions=-64% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=-9.81% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=-9.03% | Revisions=-33% | GrowthEPS=+68.5% | GrowthRev=+20.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=-5.77% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=+49.1% | GrowthRev=+17.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -64%