(AXGN) Axogen - Overview
Stock: Allograft, Connector, Protector, Cap
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 60.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.7% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.32 |
| Alpha | 72.75 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.707 |
| Beta Downside | 0.817 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 65.22% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.88 |
Description: AXGN Axogen December 27, 2025
Axogen, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXGN) develops and commercializes a portfolio of biologically-derived devices for peripheral nerve regeneration, including the off-the-shelf Avance Nerve Graft, several porcine-derived extracellular-matrix (ECM) coaptation and protection products (AxoGuard Nerve Connector, Protector, HA+ Protector, and Nerve Cap), and markets them to hospitals, surgery centers, military facilities, and specialists such as plastic, orthopedic hand, and oral-maxillofacial surgeons. The company is headquartered in Alachua, Florida, and operates within the Health Care Equipment sub-industry.
Key recent metrics (FY 2024) show revenue of roughly $96 million, with the Avance line contributing about 80 % of sales, and a cash runway of ~$150 million after a net loss of $45 million-reflecting ongoing investment in FDA-clearance pipelines and reimbursement negotiations. The peripheral-nerve-repair market is projected by industry analysts to grow at a 7 % CAGR through 2030, driven by an aging population, increasing trauma incidence, and expanding Medicare coverage for nerve-repair procedures. A material risk factor is the reliance on a single dominant product (Avance) and the competitive threat from emerging synthetic conduits and regenerative-medicine startups.
For a deeper, data-driven view of AXGN’s valuation dynamics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical platform worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -2.10m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.47 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 40.26% < 20% (prev 34.96%; Δ 5.31% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 6.51m > Net Income -2.10m |
| Net Debt (44.0m) to EBITDA (21.5m): 2.05 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.09 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (45.9m) vs 12m ago 4.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.76% > 18% (prev 0.76%; Δ 7400 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 105.2% > 50% (prev 94.20%; Δ 10.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.87 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 21.5m / Interest Expense TTM 16.2m) |
Altman Z'' -4.56
| A: 0.40 (Total Current Assets 114.5m - Total Current Liabilities 28.0m) / Total Assets 216.4m |
| B: -1.36 (Retained Earnings -293.8m / Total Assets 216.4m) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 14.1m / Avg Total Assets 204.2m) |
| D: -3.07 (Book Value of Equity -293.3m / Total Liabilities 95.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -4.56 = D |
Beneish M -2.81
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 30.8m/24.6m, Revenue 214.7m/180.9m) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 74.76% / 76.40%) |
| AQI: 1.09 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 214.7m / 180.9m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI -2.10m - CFO 6.51m) / TA 216.4m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AXGN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.23%, over one month by +12.50%, over three months by +45.60% and over the past year by +90.56%.
Is AXGN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AXGN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 37.3 | 6.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 37.3 | 6.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 39.7 | 13.7% |
AXGN Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/S = 7.9211
P/B = 14.1988
Revenue TTM = 214.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 14.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 21.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 48.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.34m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 67.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 44.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.73b USD (1.70b + Debt 67.9m - CCE 35.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.87 (Ebit TTM 14.1m / Interest Expense TTM 16.2m)
EV/FCF = 607.4x (Enterprise Value 1.73b / FCF TTM 2.85m)
FCF Yield = 0.16% (FCF TTM 2.85m / Enterprise Value 1.73b)
FCF Margin = 1.33% (FCF TTM 2.85m / Revenue TTM 214.7m)
Net Margin = -0.98% (Net Income TTM -2.10m / Revenue TTM 214.7m)
Gross Margin = 74.76% ((Revenue TTM 214.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 54.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.55% (prev 74.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.01 (Enterprise Value 1.73b / Total Assets 216.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 15.04% (Interest Expense 10.2m / Debt 67.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 11.2m (EBIT 14.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 4.09 (Total Current Assets 114.5m / Total Current Liabilities 28.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.56 (Debt 67.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 120.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.05 (Net Debt 44.0m / EBITDA 21.5m)
Debt / FCF = 15.43 (Net Debt 44.0m / FCF TTM 2.85m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 110.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.03% (Net Income -2.10m / Total Assets 216.4m)
RoE = -1.90% (Net Income TTM -2.10m / Total Stockholder Equity 110.6m)
RoCE = 8.91% (EBIT 14.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 110.6m + L.T.Debt 48.2m))
RoIC = 7.05% (NOPAT 11.2m / Invested Capital 158.4m)
WACC = 8.65% (E(1.70b)/V(1.77b) * Re(8.52%) + D(67.9m)/V(1.77b) * Rd(15.04%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 3.27%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 67.32% ; FCFF base≈2.85m ; Y1≈1.87m ; Y5≈854.5k
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 15.0m - Net Debt 44.0m = -29.0m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 73.18 | EPS CAGR: 156.8% | SUE: -1.54 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.99 | Revenue CAGR: 18.75% | SUE: 1.79 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+65.0% | Growth Revenue=+14.7%