AXSM Stock Analysis: Axsome Therapeutics | NASDAQ

Antidepressants, Sleep Disorders, Migraine, Neurology

Total Rating 27

Safety 36

Buy Signal -1.29

Biotechnology
Industry Rotation: -13.0

Market Cap: 8.82B
Avg Turnover: 150M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility46.7%

VaR 5^th Pctl7.34%

VaR vs Median-4.58%

Choppyness58.1%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.62

Rel. Str. IBD18.8

Rel. Str. Peer Group22.3

Character TTM

Beta0.270

Beta Downside0.123

Hurst Exponent0.415

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD38.74%

CAGR/Max DD0.94

CAGR/Mean DD3.13

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 59.60%
Rev. Trend: 99.4%

Last SUE: -0.79
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Fakeout

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.8 years of data

Jan -8.4% 12

Feb -4.9% 27

Mar -6.8% 28

Apr +13.1% 25

May +0.2% 2

Jun +3.7% 0

Jul -5.3% 25

Aug +1.0% 15

Sep -0.3% 8

Oct +0.2% 8

Nov +10.6% 31

Dec +7.2% 41

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AXSM Axsome Therapeutics

Axsome Therapeutics is a U.S.-based biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes novel therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders. The company markets three products: Auvelity for major depressive disorder in adults, Sunosi for excessive daytime sleepiness associated with narcolepsy or obstructive sleep apnea, and Symbravo (AXS-07) for the acute treatment of migraine with or without aura.

In addition to its commercial portfolio, Axsome is advancing a pipeline of CNS candidates, including AXS-05 (in Phase III for Alzheimers disease agitation and Phase II for smoking cessation), AXS-12 (Phase II for narcolepsy), AXS-14 (Phase III for fibromyalgia), and solriamfetol (Phase III for additional indications such as ADHD and shift work disorder). The company also maintains a research collaboration with Duke University to evaluate AXS-05 in smoking cessation.

Axsome is classified within the Health Care sectors Pharmaceuticals sub-industry and operates as a mid-cap specialty biopharmaceutical company listed on NASDAQ since its November 2015 IPO. Its business model centers on in-house drug development targeting underserved CNS indications, complemented by partnered research agreements and a commercial organization that markets its approved therapies in the United States. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Auvelity sales accelerate driving top-line growth
Sunosi revenue maintains steady narcolepsy market share
Symbravo launch expands acute migraine treatment portfolio
AXS-05 Alzheimers agitation Phase III data readout pending
Pipeline advancement in CNS disorders diversifies long-term revenue
Cash burn and capital raises pressure near-term margins

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0

Net Income: -191.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 9.52 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 25.26% < 20% (prev 39.29%; Δ -14.04% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.09 > 3% & CFO -71.3m > Net Income -191.6m
Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0)
Current Ratio: 1.43 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (51.5m) vs 12m ago 4.16% < -2%
Gross Margin: 93.24% > 18% (prev 91.48%; Δ 1.76% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 110.8% > 50% (prev 77.37%; Δ 33.47% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -37.09 > 6 (EBIT TTM -186.1m / Interest Expense TTM 5.02m)

Altman Z'' -6.05

A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 656.6m - Total Current Liabilities 460.4m) / Total Assets 761.4m
B: -1.87 (Retained Earnings -1.42b / Total Assets 761.4m)
C: -0.27 (EBIT TTM -186.1m / Avg Total Assets 700.6m)
D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 83.3m / Total Liabilities 678.1m)
Altman-Z'' = -6.05 = D

Beneish M -2.81

DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 277.5m/198.8m, Revenue 776.6m/495.0m)
GMI: 0.98 (GM 91.48% / 93.24%)
AQI: 0.89 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.13)
SGI: 1.57 (Revenue 776.6m / 495.0m)
TATA: -0.16 (NI -191.6m - CFO -71.3m) / TA 761.4m)
Beneish M = -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of AXSM shares?

As of October 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 161.79 with a total of 802,582 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.87%, over one month by -20.72%, over three months by -31.89% and over the past year by +24.86%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 149.80 (which is 7.4% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is AXSM a buy, sell or hold?

Axsome Therapeutics has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.77. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AXSM.

StrongBuy: 18
Buy: 3
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AXSM price?

Analysts Target Price	283.6	75.3%

Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 12 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 8.82b (8.82b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 32.1543
P/S = 11.3555
P/B = 121.6396
Revenue TTM = 776.6m USD
EBIT TTM = -186.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -176.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 118.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 70.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 255.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 36.7m
Net Debt = -63.9m USD (calculated: Debt 255.9m - CCE 319.9m)
Enterprise Value = 8.75b USD (8.82b + Debt 255.9m - CCE 319.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -37.09 (Ebit TTM -186.1m / Interest Expense TTM 5.02m)
EV/FCF = -122.6x (Enterprise Value 8.75b / FCF TTM -71.4m)
FCF Yield = -0.82% (FCF TTM -71.4m / Enterprise Value 8.75b)
FCF Margin = -9.19% (FCF TTM -71.4m / Revenue TTM 776.6m)
Net Margin = -24.68% (Net Income TTM -191.6m / Revenue TTM 776.6m)
Gross Margin = 93.24% ((Revenue TTM 776.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 52.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 93.79% (prev 92.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 11.50 (Enterprise Value 8.75b / Total Assets 761.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.96% (Interest Expense 5.02m / Debt 255.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -147.0m (EBIT -186.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.43 (Total Current Assets 656.6m / Total Current Liabilities 460.4m)
Debt / Equity = 3.07 (Debt 255.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 83.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.36 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -63.9m / EBITDA -176.1m)
Debt / FCF = 0.90 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -63.9m / FCF TTM -71.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 75.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -27.35% (Net Income -191.6m / Total Assets 761.4m)
RoE = -255.6% (Net Income TTM -191.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 75.0m)
RoCE = -96.44% (EBIT -186.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 75.0m + L.T.Debt 118.0m))
RoIC = -44.17% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -147.0m / Invested Capital 332.8m)
WACC = 6.78% (E(8.82b)/V(9.07b) * Re(6.93%) + D(255.9m)/V(9.07b) * Rd(1.96%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 99.56 | Cagr: 3.76%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -71.4m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.38 | Revenue CAGR: 59.60% | SUE: -0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.54 | Chg30d=-16.16% | Revisions=-36% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-2.77 | Chg30d=-4.91% | Revisions=-36% | GrowthEPS=+20.4% | GrowthRev=+50.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.66 | Chg30d=-7.36% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+268.6% | GrowthRev=+60.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -39% (up=7, down=18)