(AXSM) Axsome Therapeutics - Ratings and Ratios
Antidepressant, Wake-Promoting, Migraine, Alzheimer, Narcolepsy
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.5% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 69.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.78% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.95 |
| Alpha | 30.68 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.65 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.608 |
| Beta | 0.702 |
| Beta Downside | 0.870 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.45% |
| Mean DD | 14.77% |
| Median DD | 14.94% |
Description: AXSM Axsome Therapeutics November 05, 2025
Axsome Therapeutics (NASDAQ: AXSM) is a U.S.-based biopharma that targets central nervous system (CNS) disorders. Its commercial lineup includes Auvelity (dextromethorphan-bupropion) for major depressive disorder, Sunosi (solriamfetol) for excessive daytime sleepiness in narcolepsy or obstructive sleep apnea, and Symbravo (AXS-07), a rapid-onset migraine therapy that combines meloxicam and rizatriptan.
The pipeline features several late-stage candidates: AXS-05 (dextromethorphan-bupropion) has finished Phase III for Alzheimer’s disease agitation and Phase II for smoking cessation; AXS-12 (reboxetine) completed Phase III for narcolepsy; AXS-14 (esreboxetine) wrapped Phase III for fibromyalgia; and Solriamfetol is in Phase III trials for ADHD, major depression, binge-eating disorder, and shift-work sleepiness. Axsome also maintains a research collaboration with Duke University to evaluate AXS-05 in smoking cessation.
As of the latest quarter (Q2 2024), Axsome reported $68 million in total revenue, driven primarily by Sunosi and Auvelity, and held $550 million of cash and marketable securities, giving it roughly 18 months of runway at current burn rates. The CNS therapeutics market is expanding at a 6-7 % CAGR, buoyed by aging demographics and unmet needs in depression and sleep disorders-trends that underpin Axsome’s growth thesis. For a deeper dive into the company’s valuation dynamics, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit can help surface the most material assumptions.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (-229.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 33.7m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.15 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 8.52pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 36.53% (prev 83.59%; Δ -47.06pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO -101.0m > Net Income -229.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 1.57 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (50.0m) change vs 12m ago 3.91% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 91.86% (prev 91.09%; Δ 0.78pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 91.21% (prev 60.28%; Δ 30.93pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -29.04 (EBITDA TTM -212.3m / Interest Expense TTM 7.59m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -8.87
| (A) 0.31 = (Total Current Assets 565.3m - Total Current Liabilities 360.3m) / Total Assets 669.2m |
| (B) -1.91 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.28b / Total Assets 669.2m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.91 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.36 = EBIT TTM -220.5m / Avg Total Assets 615.4m |
| (D) -2.15 = Book Value of Equity -1.28b / Total Liabilities 595.5m |
| Total Rating: -8.87 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 32.31
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.36% |
| 3. FCF Margin -18.00% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.96 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -97.09)% |
| 7. RoE -357.2% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 83.52% |
| 9. EPS Trend -22.23% |
What is the price of AXSM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.50%, over one month by +4.67%, over three months by +15.08% and over the past year by +43.41%.
Is AXSM a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AXSM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 179.7 | 26.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 179.7 | 26.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 171.1 | 20.4% |
AXSM Fundamental Data Overview December 02, 2025
P/E Forward = 625.0
P/S = 13.3859
P/B = 103.5918
Beta = 0.48
Revenue TTM = 561.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -220.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -212.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 117.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 73.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 218.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -106.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.41b USD (7.51b + Debt 218.6m - CCE 325.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -29.04 (Ebit TTM -220.5m / Interest Expense TTM 7.59m)
FCF Yield = -1.36% (FCF TTM -101.0m / Enterprise Value 7.41b)
FCF Margin = -18.00% (FCF TTM -101.0m / Revenue TTM 561.3m)
Net Margin = -40.89% (Net Income TTM -229.5m / Revenue TTM 561.3m)
Gross Margin = 91.86% ((Revenue TTM 561.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 45.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 93.03% (prev 91.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 11.07 (Enterprise Value 7.41b / Total Assets 669.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.51% (Interest Expense 1.12m / Debt 218.6m)
Taxrate = -0.0% (0.0 / -47.2m)
NOPAT = -220.5m (EBIT -220.5m * (1 - -0.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.57 (Total Current Assets 565.3m / Total Current Liabilities 360.3m)
Debt / Equity = 2.96 (Debt 218.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 73.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.50 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -106.7m / EBITDA -212.3m)
Debt / FCF = 1.06 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -106.7m / FCF TTM -101.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 64.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -34.30% (Net Income -229.5m / Total Assets 669.2m)
RoE = -357.2% (Net Income TTM -229.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 64.3m)
RoCE = -121.2% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -220.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 64.3m + L.T.Debt 117.6m))
RoIC = -88.72% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -220.5m / Invested Capital 248.6m)
WACC = 8.37% (E(7.51b)/V(7.73b) * Re(8.60%) + D(218.6m)/V(7.73b) * Rd(0.51%) * (1-Tc(-0.0)))
Discount Rate = 8.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 2.80%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -101.0m)
EPS Correlation: -22.23 | EPS CAGR: -0.83% | SUE: -0.33 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 83.52 | Revenue CAGR: 134.3% | SUE: 2.02 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.61 | Chg30d=-0.083 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=-0.474 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+106.8% | Growth Revenue=+55.3%
Additional Sources for AXSM Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle