(AXSM) Axsome Therapeutics - Overview
Stock: Antidepressant, Anti-Sleepiness, Migraine, Alzheimer, Narcolepsy
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 39.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.24 |
| Alpha | 49.56 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.561 |
| Beta Downside | 0.718 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.45% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.19 |
Description: AXSM Axsome Therapeutics January 08, 2026
Axsome Therapeutics (NASDAQ: AXSM) is a U.S.-based biopharma focused on central nervous system (CNS) disorders. Its approved portfolio includes Auvelity (dextromethorphan-bupropion) for major depressive disorder, Sunosi (solriamfetol) for excessive daytime sleepiness in narcolepsy or obstructive sleep apnea, and Symbravo (AXS-07), a rapid-onset migraine treatment combining meloxicam and rizatriptan.
The pipeline leverages the same dextromethorphan-bupropion platform (AXS-05) and other norepinephrine-focused agents. AXS-05 has finished Phase III trials for Alzheimer’s disease agitation and Phase II for smoking cessation; AXS-12 completed Phase III in narcolepsy; AXS-14 wrapped Phase III for fibromyalgia; and Solriamfetol is in Phase III for ADHD, major depression, binge-eating disorder, and shift-work sleepiness. Axsome also maintains a research collaboration with Duke University to explore AXS-05 in smoking cessation.
As of Q4 2023, Axsome reported $115 million in revenue, a cash runway of roughly $300 million, and a net loss of $150 million, reflecting heavy R&D spend. The CNS therapeutic market is expanding at ~6 % CAGR, driven by aging demographics and increasing diagnosis rates, but pricing pressure from insurers and competition from larger players (e.g., Johnson & Johnson, Eli Lilly) remain material risk factors.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of AXSM’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the analyst tools on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: -229.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.52 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.53% < 20% (prev 83.59%; Δ -47.06% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.15 > 3% & CFO -101.0m > Net Income -229.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.57 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (50.0m) vs 12m ago 3.91% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 91.86% > 18% (prev 0.91%; Δ 9095 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 91.21% > 50% (prev 60.28%; Δ 30.93% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -29.04 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -212.3m / Interest Expense TTM 7.59m) |
Altman Z'' -8.87
| A: 0.31 (Total Current Assets 565.3m - Total Current Liabilities 360.3m) / Total Assets 669.2m |
| B: -1.91 (Retained Earnings -1.28b / Total Assets 669.2m) |
| C: -0.36 (EBIT TTM -220.5m / Avg Total Assets 615.4m) |
| D: -2.15 (Book Value of Equity -1.28b / Total Liabilities 595.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -8.87 = D |
Beneish M -2.89
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 196.5m/124.1m, Revenue 561.3m/338.5m) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 91.86% / 91.09%) |
| AQI: 0.85 (AQ_t 0.12 / AQ_t-1 0.14) |
| SGI: 1.66 (Revenue 561.3m / 338.5m) |
| TATA: -0.19 (NI -229.5m - CFO -101.0m) / TA 669.2m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AXSM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.92%, over one month by +6.21%, over three months by +30.94% and over the past year by +66.71%.
Is AXSM a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AXSM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 215.4 | 18% |
| Analysts Target Price | 215.4 | 18% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 253.7 | 39% |
AXSM Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/S = 16.243
P/B = 126.8675
Revenue TTM = 561.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -220.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -212.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 117.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 73.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 218.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -106.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 9.01b USD (9.12b + Debt 218.6m - CCE 325.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -29.04 (Ebit TTM -220.5m / Interest Expense TTM 7.59m)
EV/FCF = -89.17x (Enterprise Value 9.01b / FCF TTM -101.0m)
FCF Yield = -1.12% (FCF TTM -101.0m / Enterprise Value 9.01b)
FCF Margin = -18.00% (FCF TTM -101.0m / Revenue TTM 561.3m)
Net Margin = -40.89% (Net Income TTM -229.5m / Revenue TTM 561.3m)
Gross Margin = 91.86% ((Revenue TTM 561.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 45.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 93.03% (prev 91.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 13.46 (Enterprise Value 9.01b / Total Assets 669.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.51% (Interest Expense 1.12m / Debt 218.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -174.2m (EBIT -220.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.57 (Total Current Assets 565.3m / Total Current Liabilities 360.3m)
Debt / Equity = 2.96 (Debt 218.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 73.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.50 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -106.7m / EBITDA -212.3m)
Debt / FCF = 1.06 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -106.7m / FCF TTM -101.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 64.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -37.30% (Net Income -229.5m / Total Assets 669.2m)
RoE = -357.2% (Net Income TTM -229.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 64.3m)
RoCE = -121.2% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -220.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 64.3m + L.T.Debt 117.6m))
RoIC = -70.09% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -174.2m / Invested Capital 248.6m)
WACC = 7.80% (E(9.12b)/V(9.34b) * Re(7.98%) + D(218.6m)/V(9.34b) * Rd(0.51%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 2.80%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -101.0m)
EPS Correlation: 18.78 | EPS CAGR: 18.25% | SUE: 2.11 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 83.52 | Revenue CAGR: 134.3% | SUE: 2.02 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.58 | Chg30d=+0.026 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=+0.044 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+108.9% | Growth Revenue=+58.4%