(AXTI) AXT - Overview
Stock: Substrates, Indium, Phosphide, Gallium, Germanium
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 140% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -19.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.67 |
| Alpha | 975.33 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.696 |
| Beta Downside | 2.397 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 81.41% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.74 |
Description: AXTI AXT January 20, 2026
AXT, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXTI) designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes a broad portfolio of compound and single-element semiconductor substrates, including indium phosphide (InP) for data-center optics, 5G, and lidar; semi-insulating and conductive gallium arsenide (GaAs) for Wi-Fi, IoT, satellite communications, and VCSEL-based sensing; and germanium wafers for multi-junction solar cells and infrared detectors. The company also supplies high-purity gallium, boron compounds, and pyrolytic boron nitride (pBN) crucibles, selling primarily through a direct salesforce in the U.S., China, and Europe, supplemented by distributors in Japan, Taiwan, and Korea.
In its most recent fiscal year (2023), AXT reported revenue of roughly $70 million with a gross margin near 30%, reflecting strong demand for InP substrates tied to the global expansion of data-center capacity and the rollout of 5G networks. The semiconductor materials sector is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 6% through 2029, driven by increasing power-efficiency requirements and the shift toward photonic integration. A key supply-chain risk for AXT is the limited number of high-volume GaAs wafer fabs, which can constrain pricing power but also create entry barriers for new competitors.
For a deeper dive into AXT’s valuation metrics and peer comparison, check out the ValueRay analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.5
| Net Income: -22.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.93 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 71.75% < 20% (prev 94.09%; Δ -22.34% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.05 > 3% & CFO -15.8m > Net Income -22.8m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.76 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (43.7m) vs 12m ago 1.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.97% > 18% (prev 0.25%; Δ 1172 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 26.21% > 50% (prev 26.63%; Δ -0.41% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -19.06 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -13.5m / Interest Expense TTM 1.18m) |
Altman Z'' -0.53
| A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 149.8m - Total Current Liabilities 84.9m) / Total Assets 334.0m |
| B: -0.18 (Retained Earnings -61.4m / Total Assets 334.0m) |
| C: -0.07 (EBIT TTM -22.6m / Avg Total Assets 344.8m) |
| D: -0.73 (Book Value of Equity -68.0m / Total Liabilities 93.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.53 = B |
Beneish M -1.67
| DSRI: 1.27 (Receivables 33.8m/28.0m, Revenue 90.4m/94.7m) |
| GMI: 2.12 (GM 11.97% / 25.41%) |
| AQI: 1.30 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 90.4m / 94.7m) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI -22.8m - CFO -15.8m) / TA 334.0m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.67 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
What is the price of AXTI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +29.77%, over one month by +19.29%, over three months by +171.25% and over the past year by +1003.67%.
Is AXTI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AXTI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 18.1 | -24.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 18.1 | -24.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 23 | -4.6% |
AXTI Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/S = 12.4931
P/B = 5.9015
P/EG = 3.77
Revenue TTM = 90.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -22.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -13.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.15m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 62.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 63.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 40.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.17b USD (1.13b + Debt 63.7m - CCE 23.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -19.06 (Ebit TTM -22.6m / Interest Expense TTM 1.18m)
EV/FCF = -61.78x (Enterprise Value 1.17b / FCF TTM -18.9m)
FCF Yield = -1.62% (FCF TTM -18.9m / Enterprise Value 1.17b)
FCF Margin = -20.95% (FCF TTM -18.9m / Revenue TTM 90.4m)
Net Margin = -25.22% (Net Income TTM -22.8m / Revenue TTM 90.4m)
Gross Margin = 11.97% ((Revenue TTM 90.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 79.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.26% (prev 7.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.50 (Enterprise Value 1.17b / Total Assets 334.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.62% (Interest Expense 395.0k / Debt 63.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -17.8m (EBIT -22.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.76 (Total Current Assets 149.8m / Total Current Liabilities 84.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 63.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 179.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.00 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 40.6m / EBITDA -13.5m)
Debt / FCF = -2.14 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 40.6m / FCF TTM -18.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 184.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -6.61% (Net Income -22.8m / Total Assets 334.0m)
RoE = -12.38% (Net Income TTM -22.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 184.2m)
RoCE = -12.11% (EBIT -22.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 184.2m + L.T.Debt 2.15m))
RoIC = -7.59% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -17.8m / Invested Capital 234.9m)
WACC = 11.54% (E(1.13b)/V(1.19b) * Re(12.16%) + D(63.7m)/V(1.19b) * Rd(0.62%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.99%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -18.9m)
EPS Correlation: -56.93 | EPS CAGR: -7.74% | SUE: 1.25 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -56.57 | Revenue CAGR: -7.69% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.05 | Chg30d=-0.026 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.03 | Chg30d=-0.027 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+94.0% | Growth Revenue=+36.6%