(AXTI) AXT - Ratings and Ratios
Substrates, Indium, Gallium, Germanium, Purified
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 102% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 138% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -18.21% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.34 |
| Alpha | 560.94 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.57 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.560 |
| Beta | 1.688 |
| Beta Downside | 2.399 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 82.10% |
| Mean DD | 51.64% |
| Median DD | 59.26% |
Description: AXTI AXT November 17, 2025
AXT, Inc. (NASDAQ: AXTI) designs, develops, manufactures and distributes both compound and single-element semiconductor substrates, including indium phosphide (InP), semi-insulating gallium arsenide (GaAs), conducting GaAs, and germanium wafers, as well as high-purity gallium, boron compounds and pyrolytic-BN (pBN) crucibles.
The company’s product portfolio targets high-growth photonics markets: InP substrates enable data-center optical interconnects, 5G radios and lidar; GaAs substrates support Wi-Fi/IOT, power amplifiers, satellite communications and micro-LED displays; germanium wafers are used in multi-junction solar cells and infrared detectors. These end-markets are being driven by expanding data-center capacity (projected CAGR ≈ 7% 2024-2029), continued 5G roll-out, and increasing demand for lidar in autonomous-vehicle systems.
According to AXT’s FY 2023 Form 10-K, the company generated roughly $124 million in revenue, a year-over-year increase of about 15%, and reported a gross margin of 31%, reflecting the premium pricing of its specialty substrates. The firm’s top three customers-located in the United States, China and Europe-account for roughly 55% of net sales, indicating concentration risk but also exposure to the largest data-center and telecom markets.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of AXTI’s valuation and risk profile, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard useful as a next step in your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.5
| Net Income (-22.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 5.42m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.93pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 71.75% (prev 94.09%; Δ -22.34pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.05 (>3.0%) and CFO -15.8m > Net Income -22.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 1.76 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (43.7m) change vs 12m ago 1.26% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 11.97% (prev 25.41%; Δ -13.43pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 26.21% (prev 26.63%; Δ -0.41pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -19.06 (EBITDA TTM -13.5m / Interest Expense TTM 1.18m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.53
| (A) 0.19 = (Total Current Assets 149.8m - Total Current Liabilities 84.9m) / Total Assets 334.0m |
| (B) -0.18 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -61.4m / Total Assets 334.0m |
| (C) -0.07 = EBIT TTM -22.6m / Avg Total Assets 344.8m |
| (D) -0.73 = Book Value of Equity -68.0m / Total Liabilities 93.6m |
| Total Rating: -0.53 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 13.96
| 1. Piotroski 0.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -3.13% |
| 3. FCF Margin -20.95% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.36 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -3.00 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -24.83)% |
| 7. RoE -12.38% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -56.57% |
| 9. EPS Trend -72.16% |
What is the price of AXTI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +27.89%, over one month by +34.88%, over three months by +304.64% and over the past year by +567.12%.
Is AXTI a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AXTI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.5 | -35.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.5 | -35.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 14 | -5.2% |
AXTI Fundamental Data Overview December 06, 2025
P/E Forward = 24.2131
P/S = 6.2412
P/B = 3.0478
P/EG = 3.77
Beta = 2.005
Revenue TTM = 90.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -22.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -13.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.15m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 62.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 63.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 40.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 604.7m USD (564.1m + Debt 63.7m - CCE 23.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -19.06 (Ebit TTM -22.6m / Interest Expense TTM 1.18m)
FCF Yield = -3.13% (FCF TTM -18.9m / Enterprise Value 604.7m)
FCF Margin = -20.95% (FCF TTM -18.9m / Revenue TTM 90.4m)
Net Margin = -25.22% (Net Income TTM -22.8m / Revenue TTM 90.4m)
Gross Margin = 11.97% ((Revenue TTM 90.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 79.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.26% (prev 7.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.81 (Enterprise Value 604.7m / Total Assets 334.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.62% (Interest Expense 395.0k / Debt 63.7m)
Taxrate = -43.11% (negative due to tax credits) (504.0k / -1.17m)
NOPAT = -32.3m (EBIT -22.6m * (1 - -43.11%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 1.76 (Total Current Assets 149.8m / Total Current Liabilities 84.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 63.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 179.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.00 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 40.6m / EBITDA -13.5m)
Debt / FCF = -2.14 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 40.6m / FCF TTM -18.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 184.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -6.83% (Net Income -22.8m / Total Assets 334.0m)
RoE = -12.38% (Net Income TTM -22.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 184.2m)
RoCE = -12.11% (EBIT -22.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 184.2m + L.T.Debt 2.15m))
RoIC = -13.75% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -32.3m / Invested Capital 234.9m)
WACC = 11.09% (E(564.1m)/V(627.8m) * Re(12.24%) + D(63.7m)/V(627.8m) * Rd(0.62%) * (1-Tc(-0.43)))
Discount Rate = 12.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.99%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -18.9m)
EPS Correlation: -72.16 | EPS CAGR: -11.68% | SUE: 1.40 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -56.57 | Revenue CAGR: -7.69% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.02 | Chg30d=+0.059 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=+0.266 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+100.5% | Growth Revenue=+32.3%
Additional Sources for AXTI Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle