(AXTI) AXT - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US00246W1036

Substrates, Indium, Gallium, Germanium, Purified

Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Market Cap in USD: 1,400m

IPO / Inception: 1998-05-21
12m vs SPY: 803%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -7.74%
EPS Trend: -56.9%

Last SUE: 1.25
Qual. Beats: 2

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -7.69%
Rev. Trend: -56.6%

Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 1

Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	94.2%
Value at Risk 5%th	127%
Relative Tail Risk	-18.27%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	2.72
Alpha	967.28
CAGR/Max DD	0.75

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.475
Beta	1.722
Beta Downside	2.542

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	82.10%
Mean DD	51.78%
Median DD	59.26%

Description: AXTI AXT November 17, 2025

AXT, Inc. (NASDAQ: AXTI) designs, develops, manufactures and distributes both compound and single-element semiconductor substrates, including indium phosphide (InP), semi-insulating gallium arsenide (GaAs), conducting GaAs, and germanium wafers, as well as high-purity gallium, boron compounds and pyrolytic-BN (pBN) crucibles.

The company’s product portfolio targets high-growth photonics markets: InP substrates enable data-center optical interconnects, 5G radios and lidar; GaAs substrates support Wi-Fi/IOT, power amplifiers, satellite communications and micro-LED displays; germanium wafers are used in multi-junction solar cells and infrared detectors. These end-markets are being driven by expanding data-center capacity (projected CAGR ≈ 7% 2024-2029), continued 5G roll-out, and increasing demand for lidar in autonomous-vehicle systems.

According to AXT’s FY 2023 Form 10-K, the company generated roughly $124 million in revenue, a year-over-year increase of about 15%, and reported a gross margin of 31%, reflecting the premium pricing of its specialty substrates. The firm’s top three customers-located in the United States, China and Europe-account for roughly 55% of net sales, indicating concentration risk but also exposure to the largest data-center and telecom markets.

For a deeper, data-driven assessment of AXTI’s valuation and risk profile, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard useful as a next step in your research.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.5

Net Income (-22.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 5.42m TTM)

FCFTA -0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.93pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 71.75% (prev 94.09%; Δ -22.34pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA -0.05 (>3.0%) and CFO -15.8m > Net Income -22.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0)

Current Ratio 1.76 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (43.7m) change vs 12m ago 1.26% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 11.97% (prev 25.41%; Δ -13.43pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 26.21% (prev 26.63%; Δ -0.41pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio -19.06 (EBITDA TTM -13.5m / Interest Expense TTM 1.18m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' -0.53

(A) 0.19 = (Total Current Assets 149.8m - Total Current Liabilities 84.9m) / Total Assets 334.0m

(B) -0.18 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -61.4m / Total Assets 334.0m

(D) -0.73 = Book Value of Equity -68.0m / Total Liabilities 93.6m

Total Rating: -0.53 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 15.63

1. Piotroski 0.50pt

2. FCF Yield -1.31%

3. FCF Margin -20.95%

4. Debt/Equity 0.36

5. Debt/Ebitda -3.00

6. ROIC - WACC (= -19.34)%

7. RoE -12.38%

8. Rev. Trend -56.57%

9. EPS Trend -56.93%

What is the price of AXTI shares?

As of January 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 22.10 with a total of 4,111,926 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.34%, over one month by +49.02%, over three months by +383.59% and over the past year by +983.33%.

Is AXTI a buy, sell or hold?

AXT has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.80. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AXTI.

Strong Buy: 4
Buy: 1
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AXTI price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	11.5	-48%
Analysts Target Price	11.5	-48%
ValueRay Target Price	20.5	-7.3%

AXTI Fundamental Data Overview January 10, 2026

P/E Forward = 24.2131
P/S = 15.491
P/B = 7.4423
P/EG = 3.77
Revenue TTM = 90.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -22.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -13.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.15m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 62.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 63.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 40.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.44b USD (1.40b + Debt 63.7m - CCE 23.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -19.06 (Ebit TTM -22.6m / Interest Expense TTM 1.18m)
EV/FCF = -76.10x (Enterprise Value 1.44b / FCF TTM -18.9m)
FCF Yield = -1.31% (FCF TTM -18.9m / Enterprise Value 1.44b)
FCF Margin = -20.95% (FCF TTM -18.9m / Revenue TTM 90.4m)
Net Margin = -25.22% (Net Income TTM -22.8m / Revenue TTM 90.4m)
Gross Margin = 11.97% ((Revenue TTM 90.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 79.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.26% (prev 7.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.31 (Enterprise Value 1.44b / Total Assets 334.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.62% (Interest Expense 395.0k / Debt 63.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -17.8m (EBIT -22.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.76 (Total Current Assets 149.8m / Total Current Liabilities 84.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 63.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 179.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.00 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 40.6m / EBITDA -13.5m)
Debt / FCF = -2.14 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 40.6m / FCF TTM -18.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 184.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -6.61% (Net Income -22.8m / Total Assets 334.0m)
RoE = -12.38% (Net Income TTM -22.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 184.2m)
RoCE = -12.11% (EBIT -22.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 184.2m + L.T.Debt 2.15m))
RoIC = -7.59% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -17.8m / Invested Capital 234.9m)
WACC = 11.75% (E(1.40b)/V(1.46b) * Re(12.26%) + D(63.7m)/V(1.46b) * Rd(0.62%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.99%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -18.9m)
EPS Correlation: -56.93 | EPS CAGR: -7.74% | SUE: 1.25 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -56.57 | Revenue CAGR: -7.69% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.02 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+100.5% | Growth Revenue=+32.3%

Additional Sources for AXTI Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle