AXTI Stock Analysis: AXT | NASDAQ

Indium Phosphide, Gallium Arsenide, Germanium Substrates, Purified Gallium

Total Rating 55

Safety 43

Buy Signal 1.24

Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Industry Rotation: +30.6

Market Cap: 4.98B
Avg Turnover: 538M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility153%

VaR 5^th Pctl24.3%

VaR vs Median-3.92%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio2.56

Rel. Str. IBD99.9

Rel. Str. Peer Group98.7

Character TTM

Beta5.000

Beta Downside2.727

Hurst Exponent0.485

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD78.52%

CAGR/Max DD2.85

CAGR/Mean DD6.15

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: 2.35
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 10.82%
Rev. Trend: 71.0%

Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Strong Share Dilution

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation

Tailwinds

Rs Leader

Idiosyncratic Leader

Confidence

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -0.1% 7

Feb +4.2% 18

Mar -2.0% 27

Apr -0.1% 10

May +3.1% 20

Jun +0.1% 7

Jul +7.1% 31

Aug -3.8% 20

Sep +5.0% 12

Oct -2.8% 25

Nov +2.2% 25

Dec -0.0% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AXTI AXT

AXT, Inc. (NASDAQ: AXTI) designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single-element semiconductor substrates, positioning it as an upstream materials supplier within the Information Technology sectors Semiconductor Materials & Equipment sub-industry. Founded in 1986 and headquartered in Fremont, California, the company sells through a direct salesforce in the United States, China, and Europe, and through independent representatives and distributors in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and other international markets.

The product portfolio is organized around three principal substrate families: indium phosphide (InP) for data center optical connectivity, 5G, fiber-optic lasers, and silicon photonics; semi-insulating and semi-conducting gallium arsenide (GaAs) for Wi-Fi, satellite communications, power amplifiers, LEDs, micro-LEDs, VCSEL-based 3D sensing, and lidar; and germanium substrates for multi-junction solar cells used in satellites and for infrared detectors. AXT also produces 6N+ and 7N+ purified gallium, gallium-magnesium alloy, and pyrolytic boron nitride (pBN) crucibles and insulating parts used in the crystal-growth process.

Unlike producers of mainstream silicon wafers, AXT focuses on compound semiconductors, which combine two or more elements (such as indium, gallium, arsenic, or phosphorus) and offer performance advantages in optoelectronic, high-frequency, and high-power applications. The company also retains vertical integration into raw material purification, supplying ultra-high-purity gallium and related consumables used in wafer manufacturing.

Headlines to Watch Out For

InP substrate revenue accelerates on AI data center optical demand
China manufacturing concentration raises geopolitical and trade risk exposure
GaAs substrate sales grow on VCSEL and micro-LED adoption

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0

Net Income: 4.05m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.46 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 377.0% < 20% (prev 76.00%; Δ 301.0% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.01 > 3% & CFO -5.76m > Net Income 4.05m
Net Debt (-330.0m) to EBITDA (14.6m): -22.58 < 3
Current Ratio: 4.77 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (63.5m) vs 12m ago 45.22% < -2%
Gross Margin: 32.18% > 18% (prev 11.94%; Δ 20.24% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 17.60% > 50% (prev 26.16%; Δ -8.56% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.07 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.12m / Interest Expense TTM 1.26m)

Altman Z'' 9.12

A: 0.43 (Total Current Assets 598.8m - Total Current Liabilities 125.7m) / Total Assets 1.10b
B: -0.05 (Retained Earnings -55.4m / Total Assets 1.10b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 5.12m / Avg Total Assets 713.1m)
D: 6.10 (Book Value of Equity 887.3m / Total Liabilities 145.3m)
Altman-Z'' = 9.12 = AAA

Beneish M -1.19

DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 36.7m/22.8m, Revenue 125.5m/86.1m)
GMI: 0.37 (GM 11.94% / 32.18%)
AQI: 4.37 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.07)
SGI: 1.46 (Revenue 125.5m / 86.1m)
TATA: 0.01 (NI 4.05m - CFO -5.76m) / TA 1.10b)
Beneish M = -1.19 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of AXTI shares?

As of September 26, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 78.94 with a total of 7,363,871 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +12.72%, over one month by +17.03%, over three months by +14.31% and over the past year by +1561.89%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 67.30 (which is 14.7% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is AXTI a buy, sell or hold?

AXT has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.80. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AXTI.

StrongBuy: 4
Buy: 1
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AXTI price?

Analysts Target Price	91.6	16%

AXT (AXTI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 26 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 4.98b (4.98b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 2530.0
P/E Forward = 30.7692
P/S = 39.6546
P/B = 5.4151
P/EG = 12.087
Revenue TTM = 125.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 5.12m USD
EBITDA TTM = 14.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.16m USD (estimated: total debt 85.4m - short term 84.2m)
Short Term Debt = 84.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 87.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.80m
Net Debt = -330.0m USD (calculated: Debt 87.2m - CCE 417.2m)
Enterprise Value = 4.65b USD (4.98b + Debt 87.2m - CCE 417.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.07 (Ebit TTM 5.12m / Interest Expense TTM 1.26m)
EV/FCF = -237.5x (Enterprise Value 4.65b / FCF TTM -19.6m)
FCF Yield = -0.42% (FCF TTM -19.6m / Enterprise Value 4.65b)
FCF Margin = -15.59% (FCF TTM -19.6m / Revenue TTM 125.5m)
Net Margin = 3.23% (Net Income TTM 4.05m / Revenue TTM 125.5m)
Gross Margin = 32.18% ((Revenue TTM 125.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 85.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.90% (prev 29.63%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.24 (Enterprise Value 4.65b / Total Assets 1.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.44% (Interest Expense 1.26m / Debt 87.2m)
Taxrate = 36.96% (3.54m / 9.57m)
NOPAT = 3.23m (EBIT 5.12m * (1 - 36.96%))
Current Ratio = 4.77 (Total Current Assets 598.8m / Total Current Liabilities 125.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.10 (Debt 87.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 887.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -22.58 (Net Debt -330.0m / EBITDA 14.6m)
Debt / FCF = 16.87 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -330.0m / FCF TTM -19.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 403.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.57% (Net Income 4.05m / Total Assets 1.10b)
RoE = 1.00% (Net Income TTM 4.05m / Total Stockholder Equity 403.6m)
RoCE = 1.26% (EBIT 5.12m / Capital Employed (Equity 403.6m + L.T.Debt 1.16m))
RoIC = 0.31% (NOPAT 3.23m / Invested Capital 1.05b)
WACC = 23.18% (E(4.98b)/V(5.06b) * Re(23.57%) + D(87.2m)/V(5.06b) * Rd(1.44%) * (1-Tc(0.37)))
Discount Rate = 23.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 72.47 | Cagr: 18.91%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -19.6m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 2.35 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 71.04 | Revenue CAGR: 10.82% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.31 | Chg30d=+201.96% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.87 | Chg30d=+191.28% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+311.7% | GrowthRev=+146.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.25 | Chg30d=+1.08% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+159.2% | GrowthRev=+111.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +80% (up=12, down=0)