BCAL Stock Analysis: Southern California Bancorp | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 671m USD | 12M Return: 27.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.59M
EPS Trend: 40.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 97.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
California BanCorp is the bank holding company for California Bank of Commerce, N.A., a community-focused financial institution headquartered in San Diego that provides a full range of banking products to individuals, professionals, and small- to medium-sized businesses across California. The company was founded in 2001, listed on NASDAQ in December 2015 under the ticker BCAL, and rebranded from Southern California Bancorp to California BanCorp in August 2024. As a regional bank, it operates a relationship-based lending and deposit model centered on local market knowledge and service to owner-operated and middle-market clients.
Deposit offerings include checking, savings, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit, while lending activities span business loans (construction and land development, commercial and industrial, SBA, and consumer), a diversified commercial real estate (CRE) portfolio covering one- to four-family, multifamily, owner-occupied, and non-owner-occupied properties, as well as lines of credit, home equity lines of credit, and letters of credit. CRE lending is typically a core earnings driver for community and regional banks, which often generate a significant share of net interest income from this segment, though profitability depends on credit quality and local economic conditions.
In addition to core banking, the company provides treasury management, merchant services, escrow and sub-accounting solutions, cash vault, sweep accounts, remote deposit capture, online and mobile banking, and ACH origination, courier, and lockbox processing services. Its client base includes businesses, business owners, trusts, LLCs, partnerships, associations, organizations, and governmental authorities, with industry exposure across manufacturing, wholesale distribution, professional services, commercial real estate, healthcare, hospitality, commercial contracting, and non-profit organizations. Fee-based services such as treasury management and merchant processing are increasingly important to community banks seeking to diversify revenue beyond net interest margin.
- CRE loan exposure weighs on credit quality
- Net interest margin compresses on Fed rate cuts
- Deposit growth fuels loan demand in Southern California
| Net Income: 60.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.30k% < 20% (prev -1.68k%; Δ 382.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 58.8m > Net Income 60.0m |
| Net Debt (-282.4m) to EBITDA (88.7m): -3.19 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (32.7m) vs 12m ago -0.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.20% > 18% (prev 59.38%; Δ 19.82% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.82% > 50% (prev 4.85%; Δ 0.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 83.4m / Interest Expense TTM 54.0m) |
| A: -0.75 (Total Current Assets 355.0m - Total Current Liabilities 3.39b) / Total Assets 4.05b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 146.4m / Total Assets 4.05b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 83.4m / Avg Total Assets 4.02b) |
| D: 0.17 (Book Value of Equity 577.8m / Total Liabilities 3.47b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -4.49 = D |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 20.61 with a total of 153,670 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.25%, over one month by +6.83%, over three months by +14.64% and over the past year by +27.47%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.10 (which is 2.5% or 1.1 ATR below the current price).
Southern California Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BCAL.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 22.2 | 7.6% |
P/E Trailing = 11.3989
P/S = 3.6267
P/B = 1.1612
Revenue TTM = 233.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 83.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 88.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 34.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 72.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.2m
Net Debt = -282.4m USD (calculated: Debt 72.6m - CCE 355.0m)
Enterprise Value = 388.5m USD (671.0m + Debt 72.6m - CCE 355.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.54 (Ebit TTM 83.4m / Interest Expense TTM 54.0m)
EV/FCF = 6.66x (Enterprise Value 388.5m / FCF TTM 58.4m)
FCF Yield = 15.02% (FCF TTM 58.4m / Enterprise Value 388.5m)
FCF Margin = 24.99% (FCF TTM 58.4m / Revenue TTM 233.6m)
Net Margin = 25.68% (Net Income TTM 60.0m / Revenue TTM 233.6m)
Gross Margin = 79.20% ((Revenue TTM 233.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 48.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 79.76% (prev 85.00%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.10 (Enterprise Value 388.5m / Total Assets 4.05b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 74.42% (Interest Expense 54.0m / Debt 72.6m)
Taxrate = 28.04% (23.4m / 83.4m)
NOPAT = 60.0m (EBIT 83.4m * (1 - 28.04%))
Current Ratio = 0.10 (Total Current Assets 355.0m / Total Current Liabilities 3.39b)
Debt / Equity = 0.13 (Debt 72.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 577.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.19 (Net Debt -282.4m / EBITDA 88.7m)
Debt / FCF = -4.84 (Net Debt -282.4m / FCF TTM 58.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 566.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.49% (Net Income 60.0m / Total Assets 4.05b)
RoE = 10.59% (Net Income TTM 60.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 566.7m)
RoCE = 13.87% (EBIT 83.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 566.7m + L.T.Debt 34.2m))
RoIC = 9.32% (NOPAT 60.0m / Invested Capital 643.6m)
WACC = 7.79% (E(671.0m)/V(743.5m) * Re(8.63%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.63% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 68.89 | Cagr: 28.07%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈54.5m ; Y1≈62.5m ; Y5≈91.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 51.78 (EV 1.38b - Net Debt -282.4m = Equity 1.67b / Shares 32.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 40.02 | EPS CAGR: 12.94% | SUE: 0.09 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.33 | Revenue CAGR: 34.90% | SUE: 0.59 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.40 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.41 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.68 | Chg30d=+0.40% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-13.1% | GrowthRev=+1.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.86 | Chg30d=+1.64% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+10.7% | GrowthRev=+7.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=6, down=1)