BCAL Stock Analysis: Southern California Bancorp | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 700m USD | 12M Return: 29.1% | US84252A1060 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.99M
EPS Trend: 59.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 96.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
California BanCorp (NASDAQ: BCAL) is the bank holding company for California Bank of Commerce, N.A., a commercial bank headquartered in San Diego, California, founded in 2001. The company provides a full suite of banking products and services to individuals, professionals, and small- to medium-sized businesses across California. Its deposit offerings include checking, savings, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit, while its lending activities span business loans, commercial and industrial loans, SBA loans, consumer loans, and commercial real estate (CRE) loans, including multifamily residential, owner-occupied, and non-owner-occupied CRE financing. The bank also offers treasury management, merchant services, escrow and sub-accounting solutions, cash vault and remote deposit capture, online and mobile banking, and ACH origination and lockbox processing.
California BanCorp serves a diverse client base, including businesses, LLCs, partnerships, associations, governmental authorities, and organizations across multiple sectors such as manufacturing, wholesale distribution, professional services, commercial real estate, healthcare, hospitality, contracting, and non-profits. The company was formerly known as Southern California Bancorp and rebranded to California BanCorp in August 2024. As a community-oriented commercial bank, BCAL emphasizes relationship-based lending to local businesses, with a notable concentration in CRE loans-a loan category that typically carries higher yields but also higher risk sensitivity to interest rate cycles and local economic conditions in the California market.
- CRE concentration risk pressures credit quality and provisioning
- Net interest margin expansion fuels quarterly earnings growth
- SMB loan demand drives revenue and deposit expansion
| Net Income: 60.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.09 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.29k% < 20% (prev -1.47k%; Δ 179.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 60.2m > Net Income 60.2m |
| Net Debt (-292.6m) to EBITDA (88.2m): -3.32 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.11 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (32.5m) vs 12m ago -0.46% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.62% > 18% (prev 64.13%; Δ 15.49% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.80% > 50% (prev 5.54%; Δ 0.26% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.62 > 6 (EBIT TTM 83.1m / Interest Expense TTM 51.2m) |
| A: -0.74 (Total Current Assets 364.0m - Total Current Liabilities 3.36b) / Total Assets 4.03b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 157.4m / Total Assets 4.03b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 83.1m / Avg Total Assets 3.99b) |
| D: 0.17 (Book Value of Equity 586.6m / Total Liabilities 3.44b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -4.43 = D |
As of October 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.70 with a total of 178,923 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.51%, over one month by +0.41%, over three months by +4.35% and over the past year by +29.06%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 21.20 (which is 2.3% or 1.1 ATR below the current price).
Southern California Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BCAL.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 24.8 | 14.1% |
P/E Trailing = 11.837
P/S = 3.7997
P/B = 1.1799
Revenue TTM = 231.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 83.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 88.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 34.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 71.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 18.4m
Net Debt = -292.6m USD (calculated: Debt 71.4m - CCE 364.0m)
Enterprise Value = 407.6m USD (700.2m + Debt 71.4m - CCE 364.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.62 (Ebit TTM 83.1m / Interest Expense TTM 51.2m)
EV/FCF = 6.88x (Enterprise Value 407.6m / FCF TTM 59.3m)
FCF Yield = 14.54% (FCF TTM 59.3m / Enterprise Value 407.6m)
FCF Margin = 25.62% (FCF TTM 59.3m / Revenue TTM 231.3m)
Net Margin = 26.02% (Net Income TTM 60.2m / Revenue TTM 231.3m)
Gross Margin = 79.62% ((Revenue TTM 231.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 47.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 78.20% (prev 79.76%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.10 (Enterprise Value 407.6m / Total Assets 4.03b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 71.79% (Interest Expense 51.2m / Debt 71.4m)
Taxrate = 27.60% (22.9m / 83.1m)
NOPAT = 60.2m (EBIT 83.1m * (1 - 27.60%))
Current Ratio = 0.11 (Total Current Assets 364.0m / Total Current Liabilities 3.36b)
Debt / Equity = 0.12 (Debt 71.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 586.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.32 (Net Debt -292.6m / EBITDA 88.2m)
Debt / FCF = -4.94 (Net Debt -292.6m / FCF TTM 59.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 576.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.51% (Net Income 60.2m / Total Assets 4.03b)
RoE = 10.44% (Net Income TTM 60.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 576.4m)
RoCE = 13.61% (EBIT 83.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 576.4m + L.T.Debt 34.6m))
RoIC = 9.20% (NOPAT 60.2m / Invested Capital 654.6m)
WACC = 7.69% (E(700.2m)/V(771.6m) * Re(8.47%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 78.60 | Cagr: 27.60%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.85% ; FCFF base≈60.3m ; Y1≈58.4m ; Y5≈57.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 37.21 (EV 903.6m - Net Debt -292.6m = Equity 1.20b / Shares 32.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -4.19% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 59.05 | EPS CAGR: 20.21% | SUE: 0.26 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.35 | Revenue CAGR: 33.46% | SUE: 0.57 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.74 | Chg30d=+0.29% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-9.7% | GrowthRev=+1.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.86 | Chg30d=+0.41% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+6.6% | GrowthRev=+6.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=6, down=1)