BFST Stock Analysis: Business First Bancshares | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.001m USD | 12M Return: 19.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Deposit Accounts, Commercial Loans, Real Estate Loans, Wealth Management
Total Rating 31
Safety 33
Buy Signal -0.42
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +3.8
Market Cap: 1.00B
Avg Turnover: 8.15M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility31.1%
VaR 5th Pctl4.99%
VaR vs Median-2.55%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.68
Rel. Str. IBD63.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group35.8
Character TTM
Beta0.894
Beta Downside0.999
Hurst Exponent0.522
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD27.27%
CAGR/Max DD1.08
CAGR/Mean DD2.79
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of BFST over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.9, "2021-09": 0.53, "2021-12": 0.57, "2022-03": 0.49, "2022-06": 0.64, "2022-09": 0.72, "2022-12": 0.66, "2023-03": 0.55, "2023-06": 0.7, "2023-09": 0.71, "2023-12": 0.66, "2024-03": 0.5, "2024-06": 0.64, "2024-09": 0.68, "2024-12": 0.66, "2025-03": 0.65, "2025-06": 0.66, "2025-09": 0.72, "2025-12": 0.79, "2026-03": 0.73,
EPS CAGR: 3.15%
EPS Trend: 59.0%
Last SUE: 0.54
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of BFST over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 57.914, 2021-09: 47.247, 2021-12: 48.711, 2022-03: 50.018, 2022-06: 60.983, 2022-09: 71.016, 2022-12: 82.175, 2023-03: 87.707, 2023-06: 94.053, 2023-09: 101.767, 2023-12: 102.093, 2024-03: 105.103, 2024-06: 111.654, 2024-09: 113.179, 2024-12: 127.813, 2025-03: 125.538, 2025-06: 126.151, 2025-09: 130.226, 2025-12: 130.01, 2026-03: 133.79,
Rev. CAGR: 17.07%
Rev. Trend: 98.3%
Last SUE: 0.64
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 8.2 years of data

Jan -2.0% 22
Feb -2.3% 28
Mar -7.5% 44
Apr -6.3% 42
May +1.7% 20
Jun +1.9% 30
Jul -1.3% 6
Aug +1.9% 10
Sep -3.8% 14
Oct +8.1% 59
Nov +5.5% 44
Dec -0.1% 11

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: BFST Business First Bancshares

Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST) is a Baton Rouge, Louisiana-based bank holding company that operates b1BANK, a regional commercial bank serving Louisiana and Texas markets. Founded in 2006 and public since 2018, BFST generates revenue primarily through net interest income on loans and fee income on deposits and ancillary services.

The companys business model centers on commercial banking, with a loan portfolio weighted toward commercial and industrial lending, commercial real estate, and construction/development loans, supplemented by residential mortgages, home equity products, and consumer lending. On the funding side, BFST offers a standard mix of checking, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts, plus certificates of deposit and treasury management services aimed at business customers. The franchise also includes wealth management and private banking services (mutual funds, annuities, IRAs, fiduciary products) and a broad suite of fee-based offerings such as merchant processing, ACH, lock-box, receivables factoring, correspondent banking, SBA products, and digital banking channels.

As a small-cap U.S. regional bank, BFST operates within the GICS Regional Banks sub-industry, which consists of institutions that concentrate on specific geographic footprints rather than nationwide lending. Regional banks of this size typically compete on local relationship banking, speed of decision-making, and commercial loan origination in their core markets, and their performance tends to be closely tied to commercial real estate trends, local economic conditions, and net interest margin movements.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin expansion as Fed holds rates steady
  • Commercial real estate loan growth drives earnings momentum
  • Louisiana and Texas hurricane exposure threatens credit quality
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: 90.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.05 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -1.21k% < 20% (prev -1.29k%; Δ 85.51% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 90.0m > Net Income 90.9m
Net Debt (-827.0m) to EBITDA (123.0m): -6.73 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.17 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (32.8m) vs 12m ago 10.96% < -2%
Gross Margin: 61.72% > 18% (prev 57.52%; Δ 4.20% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 6.23% > 50% (prev 6.14%; Δ 0.09% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.61 > 6 (EBIT TTM 117.1m / Interest Expense TTM 191.4m)
Altman Z'' -4.27
A: -0.70 (Total Current Assets 1.25b - Total Current Liabilities 7.52b) / Total Assets 8.91b
B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 343.9m / Total Assets 8.91b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 117.1m / Avg Total Assets 8.35b)
D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 991.2m / Total Liabilities 7.92b)
Altman-Z'' = -4.27 = D
Beneish M -3.05
DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 38.2m/33.7m, Revenue 520.2m/478.2m)
GMI: 0.93 (GM 57.52% / 61.72%)
AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.85 / AQ_t-1 0.94)
SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 520.2m / 478.2m)
TATA: 0.00 (NI 90.9m - CFO 90.0m) / TA 8.91b)
Beneish M = -3.05 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of BFST shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.31 with a total of 240,498 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.17%, over one month by +6.43%, over three months by +10.15% and over the past year by +19.92%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 29.40 (which is 3% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is BFST a buy, sell or hold?

Business First Bancshares has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.80. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BFST.

  • StrongBuy: 4
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the BFST price?
Analysts Target Price 32.4 6.9%
Business First Bancshares (BFST) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 06 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.00b (1.00b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 10.8652
P/E Forward = 9.6805
P/S = 3.0907
P/B = 1.1169
Revenue TTM = 520.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 117.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 123.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 329.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 54.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 384.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -827.0m USD (calculated: Debt 384.5m - CCE 1.21b)
Enterprise Value = 174.3m USD (1.00b + Debt 384.5m - CCE 1.21b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.61 (Ebit TTM 117.1m / Interest Expense TTM 191.4m)
EV/FCF = 2.01x (Enterprise Value 174.3m / FCF TTM 86.8m)
FCF Yield = 49.83% (FCF TTM 86.8m / Enterprise Value 174.3m)
FCF Margin = 16.69% (FCF TTM 86.8m / Revenue TTM 520.2m)
Net Margin = 17.47% (Net Income TTM 90.9m / Revenue TTM 520.2m)
Gross Margin = 61.72% ((Revenue TTM 520.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 199.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 62.94% (prev 63.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.02 (Enterprise Value 174.3m / Total Assets 8.91b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 49.79% (Interest Expense 191.4m / Debt 384.5m)
Taxrate = 20.27% (23.1m / 114.0m)
NOPAT = 93.4m (EBIT 117.1m * (1 - 20.27%))
Current Ratio = 0.17 (Total Current Assets 1.25b / Total Current Liabilities 7.52b)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 384.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 991.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -6.73 (Net Debt -827.0m / EBITDA 123.0m)
Debt / FCF = -9.52 (Net Debt -827.0m / FCF TTM 86.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 903.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.09% (Net Income 90.9m / Total Assets 8.91b)
RoE = 10.06% (Net Income TTM 90.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 903.7m)
RoCE = 9.49% (EBIT 117.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 903.7m + L.T.Debt 329.8m))
RoIC = 6.61% (NOPAT 93.4m / Invested Capital 1.41b)
WACC = 17.61% (E(1.00b)/V(1.39b) * Re(9.13%) + D(384.5m)/V(1.39b) * Rd(49.79%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 9.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 93.21 | Cagr: 12.14%
[DCF] Terminal Value 51.35% ; FCFF base≈84.1m ; Y1≈90.3m ; Y5≈109.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 44.96 (EV 642.1m - Net Debt -827.0m = Equity 1.47b / Shares 32.7m; r=17.61% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 8.36% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 59.02 | EPS CAGR: 3.15% | SUE: 0.54 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.29 | Revenue CAGR: 17.07% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.70 | Chg30d=+0.57% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+1.05% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.01 | Chg30d=+0.54% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+6.2% | GrowthRev=+15.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.26 | Chg30d=+0.12% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+8.3% | GrowthRev=+6.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -47% (up=3, down=11)