BFST Stock Analysis: Business First Bancshares | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 998m USD | 12M Return: 30% | US12326C1053 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Deposit Accounts, Commercial Loans, Real Estate Loans, Wealth Management
Total Rating 38
Safety 34
Buy Signal -0.32
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +4.9
Market Cap: 998M
Avg Turnover: 6.09M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility21.2%
VaR 5th Pctl3.47%
VaR vs Median-0.75%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.06
Rel. Str. IBD66.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group57.3
Character TTM
Beta0.664
Beta Downside0.622
Hurst Exponent0.526
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD27.27%
CAGR/Max DD0.75
CAGR/Mean DD2.03
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of BFST over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 0.53, "2021-12": 0.57, "2022-03": 0.49, "2022-06": 0.64, "2022-09": 0.72, "2022-12": 0.66, "2023-03": 0.55, "2023-06": 0.7, "2023-09": 0.71, "2023-12": 0.66, "2024-03": 0.5, "2024-06": 0.64, "2024-09": 0.68, "2024-12": 0.66, "2025-03": 0.65, "2025-06": 0.66, "2025-09": 0.72, "2025-12": 0.79, "2026-03": 0.73, "2026-06": 0.71,
EPS CAGR: 4.98%
EPS Trend: 75.8%
Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of BFST over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 47.247, 2021-12: 48.711, 2022-03: 50.018, 2022-06: 60.983, 2022-09: 71.016, 2022-12: 82.175, 2023-03: 87.707, 2023-06: 94.053, 2023-09: 101.767, 2023-12: 102.093, 2024-03: 105.103, 2024-06: 111.654, 2024-09: 113.179, 2024-12: 127.813, 2025-03: 125.538, 2025-06: 126.151, 2025-09: 130.226, 2025-12: 130.01, 2026-03: 133.79, 2026-06: 61.242,
Rev. CAGR: 12.12%
Rev. Trend: 88.1%
Last SUE: -0.45
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Seasonal Tailwind

Seasonality 8.5 years of data

Jan -2.0% 22
Feb -2.3% 28
Mar -7.5% 44
Apr -6.3% 42
May +1.7% 20
Jun +2.6% 33
Jul -0.7% 11
Aug +0.8% 2
Sep -3.8% 14
Oct +8.1% 59
Nov +5.5% 44
Dec -0.1% 11

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: BFST Business First Bancshares

Business First Bancshares, Inc. (BFST) is a Baton Rouge, Louisiana-based bank holding company that operates b1BANK, a regional commercial bank serving Louisiana and Texas markets. Founded in 2006 and public since 2018, BFST generates revenue primarily through net interest income on loans and fee income on deposits and ancillary services.

The companys business model centers on commercial banking, with a loan portfolio weighted toward commercial and industrial lending, commercial real estate, and construction/development loans, supplemented by residential mortgages, home equity products, and consumer lending. On the funding side, BFST offers a standard mix of checking, savings, money market, and time deposit accounts, plus certificates of deposit and treasury management services aimed at business customers. The franchise also includes wealth management and private banking services (mutual funds, annuities, IRAs, fiduciary products) and a broad suite of fee-based offerings such as merchant processing, ACH, lock-box, receivables factoring, correspondent banking, SBA products, and digital banking channels.

As a small-cap U.S. regional bank, BFST operates within the GICS Regional Banks sub-industry, which consists of institutions that concentrate on specific geographic footprints rather than nationwide lending. Regional banks of this size typically compete on local relationship banking, speed of decision-making, and commercial loan origination in their core markets, and their performance tends to be closely tied to commercial real estate trends, local economic conditions, and net interest margin movements.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin expansion as Fed holds rates steady
  • Commercial real estate loan growth drives earnings momentum
  • Louisiana and Texas hurricane exposure threatens credit quality
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: 93.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.10 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -1.52k% < 20% (prev -1.14k%; Δ -377.9% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 103.1m > Net Income 93.0m
Net Debt (-1.00b) to EBITDA (62.4m): -16.04 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.08 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (32.8m) vs 12m ago 10.96% < -2%
Gross Margin: 56.36% > 18% (prev 58.19%; Δ -1.83% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 5.40% > 50% (prev 6.20%; Δ -0.80% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.31 > 6 (EBIT TTM 59.6m / Interest Expense TTM 191.4m)
Altman Z'' -4.78
A: -0.78 (Total Current Assets 614.6m - Total Current Liabilities 7.52b) / Total Assets 8.90b
B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 361.8m / Total Assets 8.90b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 59.6m / Avg Total Assets 8.43b)
D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 1.01b / Total Liabilities 7.89b)
Altman-Z'' = -4.78 = D
Beneish M -2.88
DSRI: 1.15 (Receivables 39.0m/36.7m, Revenue 455.3m/492.7m)
GMI: 1.03 (GM 58.19% / 56.36%)
AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.92 / AQ_t-1 0.85)
SGI: 0.92 (Revenue 455.3m / 492.7m)
TATA: -0.00 (NI 93.0m - CFO 103.1m) / TA 8.90b)
Beneish M = -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of BFST shares?

As of September 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.63 with a total of 196,840 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.65%, over one month by -2.14%, over three months by +2.07% and over the past year by +30.00%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 30.00 (which is 2.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is BFST a buy, sell or hold?

Business First Bancshares has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.80. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BFST.

  • StrongBuy: 4
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the BFST price?
Analysts Target Price 34.9 13.9%
Business First Bancshares (BFST) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 24 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 998.3m (998.3m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 10.9146
P/E Forward = 9.6805
P/S = 2.9889
P/B = 1.0667
Revenue TTM = 455.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 59.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 62.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 301.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 295.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 616.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -1.00b USD (calculated: Debt 616.1m - CCE 1.62b)
Enterprise Value = 998.3m USD (floored to Market Cap, CCE > MCap+Debt)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.31 (Ebit TTM 59.6m / Interest Expense TTM 191.4m)
EV/FCF = 10.10x (Enterprise Value 998.3m / FCF TTM 98.9m)
FCF Yield = 9.90% (FCF TTM 98.9m / Enterprise Value 998.3m)
FCF Margin = 21.72% (FCF TTM 98.9m / Revenue TTM 455.3m)
Net Margin = 20.42% (Net Income TTM 93.0m / Revenue TTM 455.3m)
Gross Margin = 56.36% ((Revenue TTM 455.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 198.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.05% (prev 62.94%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.11 (Enterprise Value 998.3m / Total Assets 8.90b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 31.07% (Interest Expense 191.4m / Debt 616.1m)
Taxrate = 20.04% (23.3m / 116.3m)
NOPAT = 47.6m (EBIT 59.6m * (1 - 20.04%))
Current Ratio = 0.08 (Total Current Assets 614.6m / Total Current Liabilities 7.52b)
Debt / Equity = 0.61 (Debt 616.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.01b)
Debt / EBITDA = -16.04 (Net Debt -1.00b / EBITDA 62.4m)
Debt / FCF = -10.12 (Net Debt -1.00b / FCF TTM 98.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 943.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.10% (Net Income 93.0m / Total Assets 8.90b)
RoE = 9.85% (Net Income TTM 93.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 943.8m)
RoCE = 4.78% (EBIT 59.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 943.8m + L.T.Debt 301.3m))
RoIC = 0.54% (NOPAT 47.6m / Invested Capital 8.88b)
WACC = 14.63% (E(998.3m)/V(1.61b) * Re(8.32%) + D(616.1m)/V(1.61b) * Rd(31.07%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 8.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 92.53 | Cagr: 11.96%
[DCF] Terminal Value 60.38% ; FCFF base≈91.3m ; Y1≈104.6m ; Y5≈154.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 64.22 (EV 1.09b - Net Debt -1.00b = Equity 2.09b / Shares 32.5m; r=14.63% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 75.84 | EPS CAGR: 4.98% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.06 | Revenue CAGR: 12.12% | SUE: -0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.74 | Chg30d=+0.34% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.00 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+6.1% | GrowthRev=+14.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.29 | Chg30d=+0.30% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+9.6% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +38% (up=4, down=1)