BLBD Stock Analysis: Blue Bird | NASDAQ
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.467m USD | 12M Return: 70.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 30.9M
Qual. Beats: 4
Rev. Trend: 97.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) is a U.S.-based manufacturer of school buses, operating two segments-Bus and Parts. Founded in 1927 and headquartered in Macon, Georgia, the company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses with a range of powertrains, including diesel, propane, gasoline, compressed natural gas (CNG), and electric options. Beyond vehicle sales, Blue Bird generates recurring revenue through replacement parts and extended warranty programs, distributed via dealers, drop-ship, direct sales to fleet operators and government entities, and independent service centers.
Blue Bird operates within the heavy transportation equipment sub-industry (GICS) and is one of the dominant players in the North American school bus market, which is largely driven by state and local education budgets and student transportation requirements. The companys focus on alternative-fuel and electric powertrains aligns with broader industry trends toward emissions reduction and lower total-cost-of-ownership for school districts transitioning away from diesel fleets.
- Electric school bus orders surge on EPA Clean School Bus funding
- Alternative fuel bus mix expands amid state emissions mandates
- Parts segment revenue grows as installed fleet base scales
| Net Income: 133.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.20 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.22% < 20% (prev 7.50%; Δ 6.71% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.30 > 3% & CFO 206.4m > Net Income 133.0m |
| Net Debt (-187.9m) to EBITDA (199.1m): -0.94 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (32.6m) vs 12m ago -1.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.04% > 18% (prev 19.18%; Δ 1.87% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 242.2% > 50% (prev 249.5%; Δ -7.28% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 27.82 > 6 (EBIT TTM 183.2m / Interest Expense TTM 6.58m) |
| A: 0.31 (Total Current Assets 466.6m - Total Current Liabilities 254.3m) / Total Assets 689.4m |
| B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 128.3m / Total Assets 689.4m) |
| C: 0.30 (EBIT TTM 183.2m / Avg Total Assets 616.5m) |
| D: 0.76 (Book Value of Equity 297.9m / Total Liabilities 391.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.42 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.74 (Receivables 12.9m/15.8m, Revenue 1.49b/1.36b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 19.18% / 21.04%) |
| AQI: 0.74 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 1.49b / 1.36b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI 133.0m - CFO 206.4m) / TA 689.4m) |
| Beneish M = -3.41 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 77.38 with a total of 277,925 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.71%, over one month by +12.62%, over three months by +22.73% and over the past year by +70.10%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 70.80 (which is 8.5% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
Blue Bird has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.43. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BLBD.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 83.3 | 7.6% |
P/E Trailing = 19.1523
P/E Forward = 15.6006
P/S = 1.6522
P/B = 8.0814
P/EG = 1.13
Revenue TTM = 1.49b USD
EBIT TTM = 183.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 199.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 83.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.00m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 88.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -187.9m USD (calculated: Debt 88.0m - CCE 275.9m)
Enterprise Value = 2.28b USD (2.47b + Debt 88.0m - CCE 275.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 27.82 (Ebit TTM 183.2m / Interest Expense TTM 6.58m)
EV/FCF = 16.85x (Enterprise Value 2.28b / FCF TTM 135.2m)
FCF Yield = 5.93% (FCF TTM 135.2m / Enterprise Value 2.28b)
FCF Margin = 9.06% (FCF TTM 135.2m / Revenue TTM 1.49b)
Net Margin = 8.91% (Net Income TTM 133.0m / Revenue TTM 1.49b)
Gross Margin = 21.04% ((Revenue TTM 1.49b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.18b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.03% (prev 21.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.31 (Enterprise Value 2.28b / Total Assets 689.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.48% (Interest Expense 6.58m / Debt 88.0m)
Taxrate = 25.00% (44.3m / 177.3m)
NOPAT = 137.4m (EBIT 183.2m * (1 - 25.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.22 (Total Current Assets 466.6m / Total Current Liabilities 381.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.30 (Debt 88.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 297.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.94 (Net Debt -187.9m / EBITDA 199.1m)
Debt / FCF = -1.39 (Net Debt -187.9m / FCF TTM 135.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 261.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 21.57% (Net Income 133.0m / Total Assets 689.4m)
RoE = 50.84% (Net Income TTM 133.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 261.6m)
RoCE = 53.17% (EBIT 183.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 261.6m + L.T.Debt 83.0m))
RoIC = 37.61% (NOPAT 137.4m / Invested Capital 365.4m)
WACC = 8.64% (E(2.47b)/V(2.55b) * Re(8.75%) + D(88.0m)/V(2.55b) * Rd(7.48%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -33.33 | Cagr: 0.18%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.03% ; FCFF base≈126.8m ; Y1≈145.4m ; Y5≈213.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 102.7 (EV 3.06b - Net Debt -187.9m = Equity 3.25b / Shares 31.6m; r=8.64% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.92 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 97.32 | Revenue CAGR: 12.02% | SUE: 1.05 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.32 | Chg30d=-0.96% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=4.93 | Chg30d=-0.20% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+12.5% | GrowthRev=+18.1%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=5.58 | Chg30d=-0.26% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+13.2% | GrowthRev=+14.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +36% (up=6, down=2)