(BLBD) Blue Bird - Overview
Stock: School Buses, Electric Buses, Propane Buses
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 53.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.67% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.22 |
| Alpha | 52.45 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.794 |
| Beta Downside | 0.448 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 45.95% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.97 |
Description: BLBD Blue Bird January 15, 2026
Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ:BLBD) designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses across the United States, Canada, and select international markets. The business operates in two segments-Bus and Parts-offering Type C, Type D, and specialty vehicles powered by propane, gasoline, CNG, electric, or diesel, alongside replacement parts and extended warranties. Sales are executed through a mix of dealer networks, direct contracts with fleet operators and government entities, and a centralized parts distribution center. Founded in 1927, the company is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached approximately $1.6 billion, with bus deliveries rising ~5% YoY, driven by renewed state school-funding allocations and growing demand for low-emission fleets. The electric-bus segment, launched in 2021, now accounts for roughly 8% of total unit volume, reflecting broader ESG pressures on school districts. A sector-wide driver is the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which earmarks billions for school-transport upgrades-potentially expanding Blue Bird’s addressable market over the next five years.
For a concise, data-rich overview of BLBD’s valuation and risk profile, the ValueRay platform provides a useful dashboard to explore further.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0
| Net Income: 129.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.28 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.09 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.72% < 20% (prev 7.55%; Δ 5.17% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.29 > 3% & CFO 186.4m > Net Income 129.8m |
| Net Debt (-152.6m) to EBITDA (188.6m): -0.81 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.81 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (32.6m) vs 12m ago -2.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.97% > 18% (prev 0.19%; Δ 2078 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 254.6% > 50% (prev 251.0%; Δ 3.65% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 20.32 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 188.6m / Interest Expense TTM 6.85m) |
Altman Z'' 4.65
| A: 0.30 (Total Current Assets 425.8m - Total Current Liabilities 235.1m) / Total Assets 642.3m |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 104.0m / Total Assets 642.3m) |
| C: 0.24 (EBIT TTM 139.2m / Avg Total Assets 588.8m) |
| D: 0.56 (Book Value of Equity 75.8m / Total Liabilities 135.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.65 = AA |
Beneish M -3.49
| DSRI: 0.69 (Receivables 10.8m/14.0m, Revenue 1.50b/1.34b) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 20.97% / 18.80%) |
| AQI: 0.82 (AQ_t 0.16 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 1.50b / 1.34b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 129.8m - CFO 186.4m) / TA 642.3m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.49 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of BLBD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +17.69%, over one month by +24.94%, over three months by +17.15% and over the past year by +59.04%.
Is BLBD a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BLBD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 65.9 | 11.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 65.9 | 11.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 79.4 | 34% |
BLBD Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 12.1212
P/S = 1.1712
P/B = 6.151
P/EG = 1.13
Revenue TTM = 1.50b USD
EBIT TTM = 139.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 188.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 85.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 5.00m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 89.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -152.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.60b USD (1.76b + Debt 89.2m - CCE 241.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 20.32 (Ebit TTM 139.2m / Interest Expense TTM 6.85m)
EV/FCF = 9.05x (Enterprise Value 1.60b / FCF TTM 177.1m)
FCF Yield = 11.05% (FCF TTM 177.1m / Enterprise Value 1.60b)
FCF Margin = 11.81% (FCF TTM 177.1m / Revenue TTM 1.50b)
Net Margin = 8.65% (Net Income TTM 129.8m / Revenue TTM 1.50b)
Gross Margin = 20.97% ((Revenue TTM 1.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.18b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.38% (prev 21.11%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.50 (Enterprise Value 1.60b / Total Assets 642.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.76% (Interest Expense 1.57m / Debt 89.2m)
Taxrate = 25.59% (43.9m / 171.6m)
NOPAT = 103.6m (EBIT 139.2m * (1 - 25.59%))
Current Ratio = 1.81 (Total Current Assets 425.8m / Total Current Liabilities 235.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.33 (Debt 89.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 271.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.81 (Net Debt -152.6m / EBITDA 188.6m)
Debt / FCF = -0.86 (Net Debt -152.6m / FCF TTM 177.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 234.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 22.04% (Net Income 129.8m / Total Assets 642.3m)
RoE = 55.27% (Net Income TTM 129.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 234.8m)
RoCE = 43.50% (EBIT 139.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 234.8m + L.T.Debt 85.3m))
RoIC = 32.99% (NOPAT 103.6m / Invested Capital 314.0m)
WACC = 8.48% (E(1.76b)/V(1.85b) * Re(8.84%) + D(89.2m)/V(1.85b) * Rd(1.76%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 8.84% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.30%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.62% ; FCFF base≈154.4m ; Y1≈167.9m ; Y5≈210.1m
Fair Price DCF = 110.1 (EV 3.33b - Net Debt -152.6m = Equity 3.48b / Shares 31.6m; r=8.48% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 9.92% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 88.27 | EPS CAGR: 44.97% | SUE: 1.06 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 88.73 | Revenue CAGR: 13.43% | SUE: 0.43 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=-0.037 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=4.53 | Chg30d=+0.248 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+3.4% | Growth Revenue=+2.4%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=5.01 | Chg30d=+0.208 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+10.5% | Growth Revenue=+4.6%