(BLBD) Blue Bird - Overview
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 2.098m USD | Total Return: 73.5% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 35.3M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 97.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Idiosyncratic Leader, Confidence
Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) is a Georgia-based manufacturer specializing in school buses and replacement parts for domestic and international markets. The company produces a range of chassis types, including Type C and Type D, with a strategic focus on alternative propulsion systems such as electric, propane, and compressed natural gas.
Operating within the heavy transportation equipment sector, Blue Bird utilizes a dual-channel distribution model involving a dealer network and direct sales to government entities and fleet operators. The shift toward electric vehicles in this sector is heavily influenced by federal subsidies and state-level mandates for zero-emission student transportation.
Beyond vehicle manufacturing, the company maintains a recurring revenue stream through its dedicated parts distribution center and extended warranty services. Detailed financial metrics and valuation models are available on ValueRay for further analysis. The pupil transportation industry typically faces high barriers to entry due to stringent safety regulations and significant capital requirements for manufacturing infrastructure.
- Federal EV funding through the EPA Clean School Bus Program drives order growth
- Rising raw material costs for steel and aluminum impact manufacturing profit margins
- Shift toward electric and alternative fuel buses increases average unit selling prices
- High interest rates and municipal budget constraints delay fleet replacement cycles
- Expansion of aftermarket parts segment provides high-margin recurring revenue streams
| Net Income: 133.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.20 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.22% < 20% (prev 7.50%; Δ 6.71% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.30 > 3% & CFO 206.4m > Net Income 133.0m |
| Net Debt (-187.9m) to EBITDA (198.3m): -0.95 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (32.6m) vs 12m ago -1.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.04% > 18% (prev 0.19%; Δ 2.09k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 242.2% > 50% (prev 249.5%; Δ -7.28% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 27.70 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 198.3m / Interest Expense TTM 6.58m) |
| A: 0.31 (Total Current Assets 466.6m - Total Current Liabilities 254.3m) / Total Assets 689.4m |
| B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 128.3m / Total Assets 689.4m) |
| C: 0.30 (EBIT TTM 182.4m / Avg Total Assets 616.5m) |
| D: 0.26 (Book Value of Equity 100.2m / Total Liabilities 391.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.88 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.74 (Receivables 12.9m/15.8m, Revenue 1.49b/1.36b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 21.04% / 19.18%) |
| AQI: 0.74 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 1.49b / 1.36b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI 133.0m - CFO 206.4m) / TA 689.4m) |
| Beneish M = -3.51 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of May 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 69.23 with a total of 394,158 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.83%,
over one month by +7.40%,
over three months by +17.64% and
over the past year by +73.51%.
Blue Bird has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.43. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BLBD.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 81.7 | 18% |
P/E Trailing = 16.2899
P/E Forward = 12.9534
P/S = 1.4052
P/B = 7.0436
P/EG = 1.13
Revenue TTM = 1.49b USD
EBIT TTM = 182.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 198.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 83.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.00m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 88.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -187.9m USD (calculated: Debt 88.0m - CCE 275.9m)
Enterprise Value = 1.91b USD (2.10b + Debt 88.0m - CCE 275.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 27.70 (Ebit TTM 182.4m / Interest Expense TTM 6.58m)
EV/FCF = 14.13x (Enterprise Value 1.91b / FCF TTM 135.2m)
FCF Yield = 7.08% (FCF TTM 135.2m / Enterprise Value 1.91b)
FCF Margin = 9.06% (FCF TTM 135.2m / Revenue TTM 1.49b)
Net Margin = 8.91% (Net Income TTM 133.0m / Revenue TTM 1.49b)
Gross Margin = 21.04% ((Revenue TTM 1.49b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.18b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.03% (prev 21.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.77 (Enterprise Value 1.91b / Total Assets 689.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.48% (Interest Expense 6.58m / Debt 88.0m)
Taxrate = 23.70% (9.10m / 38.4m)
NOPAT = 139.2m (EBIT 182.4m * (1 - 23.70%))
Current Ratio = 1.22 (Total Current Assets 466.6m / Total Current Liabilities 381.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.30 (Debt 88.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 297.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.95 (Net Debt -187.9m / EBITDA 198.3m)
Debt / FCF = -1.39 (Net Debt -187.9m / FCF TTM 135.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 261.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 21.57% (Net Income 133.0m / Total Assets 689.4m)
RoE = 50.84% (Net Income TTM 133.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 261.6m)
RoCE = 52.93% (EBIT 182.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 261.6m + L.T.Debt 83.0m))
RoIC = 34.42% (NOPAT 139.2m / Invested Capital 404.2m)
WACC = 8.33% (E(2.10b)/V(2.19b) * Re(8.44%) + D(88.0m)/V(2.19b) * Rd(7.48%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.44% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -33.33 | Cagr: 0.18%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈126.8m ; Y1≈145.4m ; Y5≈213.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 107.7 (EV 3.22b - Net Debt -187.9m = Equity 3.41b / Shares 31.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.32 | Revenue CAGR: 12.02% | SUE: 1.05 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.34 | Chg30d=+11.27% | Revisions=+33% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=4.94 | Chg30d=+10.77% | Revisions=+14% | GrowthEPS=+12.8% | GrowthRev=+18.2%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=5.60 | Chg30d=+13.95% | Revisions=+14% | GrowthEPS=+13.3% | GrowthRev=+13.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +33%