(BLBD) Blue Bird - Ratings and Ratios
School Buses, Electric Buses, Replacement Parts
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 44.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 71.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.65% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.58 |
| Alpha | 13.18 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.54 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.471 |
| Beta | 0.826 |
| Beta Downside | 0.594 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 45.95% |
| Mean DD | 18.25% |
| Median DD | 17.25% |
Description: BLBD Blue Bird November 12, 2025
Blue Bird Corporation (NASDAQ: BLBD) designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells a full line of school buses-including Type C, Type D, and specialty models-across the United States, Canada, and select international markets. The firm operates two segments: Bus, which produces vehicles powered by diesel, propane, gasoline, compressed natural gas, and electric drivetrains; and Parts, which supplies replacement components and extended warranties. Sales are executed through a mixed channel strategy of dealer networks, drop-ship arrangements, direct contracts with fleet operators, and government entities, supported by a dedicated parts distribution center.
In FY 2023 the company reported approximately $1.2 billion in revenue, with the Bus segment contributing roughly 80 % and the Parts segment the remaining 20 %. Blue Bird commands an estimated 30 % share of the U.S. school-bus market, a position that benefits from sustained public-sector spending on student transportation and the growing regulatory push for low-emission vehicles. The rollout of its electric-bus platform has accelerated, with capital expenditures on EV development rising 45 % year-over-year, reflecting broader sector trends toward electrification and the availability of federal incentives for zero-emission fleets.
For a deeper, data-driven view of BLBD’s valuation metrics and scenario analyses, you may find the research tools on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income (127.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 88.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.26 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.71pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 11.81% (prev 6.49%; Δ 5.32pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.28 (>3.0%) and CFO 176.2m > Net Income 127.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-132.7m) to EBITDA (192.4m) ratio: -0.69 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.74 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (32.8m) change vs 12m ago -2.63% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 20.51% (prev 18.99%; Δ 1.51pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 257.4% (prev 256.7%; Δ 0.72pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 24.54 (EBITDA TTM 192.4m / Interest Expense TTM 7.20m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.52
| (A) 0.28 = (Total Current Assets 411.6m - Total Current Liabilities 236.8m) / Total Assets 625.3m |
| (B) 0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 88.2m / Total Assets 625.3m |
| (C) 0.31 = EBIT TTM 176.8m / Avg Total Assets 575.1m |
| (D) 0.15 = Book Value of Equity 59.9m / Total Liabilities 396.2m |
| Total Rating: 4.52 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 92.21
| 1. Piotroski 8.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 10.96% |
| 3. FCF Margin 10.97% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.38 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.69 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 65.38)% |
| 7. RoE 60.29% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 87.65% |
| 9. EPS Trend 89.18% |
What is the price of BLBD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.77%, over one month by -2.42%, over three months by -13.11% and over the past year by +19.48%.
Is BLBD a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BLBD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 63.8 | 26.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 63.8 | 26.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 67.5 | 34% |
BLBD Fundamental Data Overview December 12, 2025
P/E Trailing = 13.1211
P/E Forward = 12.4224
P/S = 1.0909
P/B = 6.3228
P/EG = 1.13
Beta = 1.417
Revenue TTM = 1.48b USD
EBIT TTM = 176.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 192.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 85.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.28m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 96.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -132.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.48b USD (1.61b + Debt 96.6m - CCE 229.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 24.54 (Ebit TTM 176.8m / Interest Expense TTM 7.20m)
FCF Yield = 10.96% (FCF TTM 162.4m / Enterprise Value 1.48b)
FCF Margin = 10.97% (FCF TTM 162.4m / Revenue TTM 1.48b)
Net Margin = 8.63% (Net Income TTM 127.7m / Revenue TTM 1.48b)
Gross Margin = 20.51% ((Revenue TTM 1.48b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.18b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 21.11% (prev 21.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.37 (Enterprise Value 1.48b / Total Assets 625.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.80% (Interest Expense 1.74m / Debt 96.6m)
Taxrate = -27.33% (negative due to tax credits) (-13.7m / 50.2m)
NOPAT = 225.1m (EBIT 176.8m * (1 - -27.33%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 1.74 (Total Current Assets 411.6m / Total Current Liabilities 236.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.38 (Debt 96.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 255.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.69 (Net Debt -132.7m / EBITDA 192.4m)
Debt / FCF = -0.82 (Net Debt -132.7m / FCF TTM 162.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 211.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.43% (Net Income 127.7m / Total Assets 625.3m)
RoE = 60.29% (Net Income TTM 127.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 211.8m)
RoCE = 59.48% (EBIT 176.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 211.8m + L.T.Debt 85.3m))
RoIC = 74.06% (NOPAT 225.1m / Invested Capital 303.9m)
WACC = 8.68% (E(1.61b)/V(1.71b) * Re(9.06%) + D(96.6m)/V(1.71b) * Rd(1.80%) * (1-Tc(-0.27)))
Discount Rate = 9.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.63%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.02% ; FCFE base≈135.8m ; Y1≈117.2m ; Y5≈92.5m
Fair Price DCF = 44.64 (DCF Value 1.42b / Shares Outstanding 31.7m; 5y FCF grow -16.71% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 89.18 | EPS CAGR: 35.23% | SUE: 1.44 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 87.65 | Revenue CAGR: 36.00% | SUE: 1.72 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.92 | Chg30d=-0.096 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=4.28 | Chg30d=+0.049 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=-2.2% | Growth Revenue=+2.9%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=4.80 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+12.1% | Growth Revenue=+4.5%
Additional Sources for BLBD Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle