BLMN Stock Analysis: Bloomin Brands | NASDAQ

Restaurants | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 677m USD | 12M Return: 9.2% | US0942351083 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Steakhouse, Italian Cuisine, Seafood, Fine Dining
Total Rating 38
Safety 35
Buy Signal 0.21
Restaurants
Industry Rotation: -11.5
Market Cap: 677M
Avg Turnover: 18.5M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility66.1%
VaR 5th Pctl10.7%
VaR vs Median-2.24%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.42
Rel. Str. IBD67.2
Rel. Str. Peer Group80.9
Character TTM
Beta1.909
Beta Downside0.795
Hurst Exponent0.427
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD80.50%
CAGR/Max DD-0.34
CAGR/Mean DD-0.54
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of BLMN over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 0.57, "2021-12": 0.6, "2022-03": 0.8, "2022-06": 0.68, "2022-09": 0.35, "2022-12": 0.68, "2023-03": 0.98, "2023-06": 0.7, "2023-09": 0.44, "2023-12": 0.75, "2024-03": 0.7, "2024-06": 0.51, "2024-09": 0.21, "2024-12": 0.22, "2025-03": 0.58, "2025-06": 0.33, "2025-09": -0.03, "2025-12": 0.26, "2026-03": 0.67, "2026-06": 0.39,
EPS CAGR: -31.76%
EPS Trend: -94.0%
Last SUE: 1.33
Qual. Beats: 2
Revenue Revenue of BLMN over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 1010.463, 2021-12: 1047.083, 2022-03: 1140.535, 2022-06: 1125.162, 2022-09: 1055.763, 2022-12: 1095.048, 2023-03: 1244.746, 2023-06: 1152.694, 2023-09: 1079.833, 2023-12: 1194.197, 2024-03: 1069.073, 2024-06: 1118.866, 2024-09: 1038.771, 2024-12: 597.511, 2025-03: 1049.594, 2025-06: 1002.366, 2025-09: 928.813, 2025-12: 975.223, 2026-03: 1059.673, 2026-06: 1015.809,
Rev. CAGR: -7.47%
Rev. Trend: -75.8%
Last SUE: 0.08
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +1.1% 28
Feb +3.0% 31
Mar +0.0% 10
Apr +7.5% 20
May -1.6% 15
Jun -1.0% 15
Jul +0.9% 10
Aug +3.1% 9
Sep +0.0% 0
Oct +0.1% 0
Nov +4.4% 12
Dec -4.2% 28

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: BLMN Bloomin Brands

Bloomin Brands, Inc. (BLMN) is a multi-concept restaurant operator headquartered in Tampa, Florida, founded in 1988. The company owns and operates a portfolio of four casual, polished casual, and fine dining brands in the United States and internationally: Outback Steakhouse, Carrabbas Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Flemings Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar. Its business is organized into U.S. and International Franchise segments, with international growth driven primarily through franchising rather than company-owned locations.

The company operates within the Consumer Discretionary sector (GICS Restaurants sub-industry), a segment of the broader U.S. restaurant industry that is highly competitive and sensitive to consumer spending trends, food and labor costs, and shifts in dining preferences between dine-in and off-premise occasions. As a multi-brand operator, Bloomin Brands benefits from portfolio diversification across price points and cuisine types, though its heavy weighting toward the casual dining category exposes it to ongoing pressure from fast-casual competitors and changing consumer habits.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Outback Steakhouse same-store sales weaken on soft consumer traffic
  • Beef costs and wage inflation compress restaurant level margins
  • International franchise growth accelerates as domestic demand softens
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: 27.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.88 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -15.44% < 20% (prev -12.07%; Δ -3.37% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 319.8m > Net Income 27.7m
Net Debt (3.06b) to EBITDA (233.7m): 13.08 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.25 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (86.2m) vs 12m ago 1.27% < -2%
Gross Margin: 40.14% > 18% (prev 29.52%; Δ 10.61% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 123.9% > 50% (prev 111.5%; Δ 12.35% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 52.3m / Interest Expense TTM 47.0m)
Altman Z'' -1.88
A: -0.20 (Total Current Assets 209.6m - Total Current Liabilities 824.0m) / Total Assets 3.12b
B: -0.27 (Retained Earnings -830.6m / Total Assets 3.12b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 52.3m / Avg Total Assets 3.21b)
D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 431.8m / Total Liabilities 2.68b)
Altman-Z'' = -1.88 = D
Beneish M -3.81
DSRI: 0.22 (Receivables 42.0m/179.6m, Revenue 3.98b/3.69b)
GMI: 0.74 (GM 29.52% / 40.14%)
AQI: 1.09 (AQ_t 0.33 / AQ_t-1 0.31)
SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 3.98b / 3.69b)
TATA: -0.09 (NI 27.7m - CFO 319.8m) / TA 3.12b)
Beneish M = -3.81 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of BLMN shares?

As of September 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.06 with a total of 3,590,760 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.73%, over one month by -21.75%, over three months by -12.01% and over the past year by +9.21%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.20 (which is 10.7% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).

Is BLMN a buy, sell or hold?

Bloomin Brands has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold BLMN.

  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 10
  • Sell: 2
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the BLMN price?
Analysts Target Price 11.2 38.5%
Bloomin Brands (BLMN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 30 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 677.3m (677.3m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 24.7188
P/E Forward = 6.1996
P/S = 0.1702
P/B = 1.6962
P/EG = 1.07
Revenue TTM = 3.98b USD
EBIT TTM = 52.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 233.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 702.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 176.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.12b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.21b
Net Debt = 3.06b USD (calculated: Debt 3.12b - CCE 66.6m)
Enterprise Value = 3.73b USD (677.3m + Debt 3.12b - CCE 66.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.11 (Ebit TTM 52.3m / Interest Expense TTM 47.0m)
EV/FCF = 24.09x (Enterprise Value 3.73b / FCF TTM 155.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.15% (FCF TTM 155.0m / Enterprise Value 3.73b)
FCF Margin = 3.89% (FCF TTM 155.0m / Revenue TTM 3.98b)
Net Margin = 0.70% (Net Income TTM 27.7m / Revenue TTM 3.98b)
Gross Margin = 40.14% ((Revenue TTM 3.98b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.38b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.97% (prev 11.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.20 (Enterprise Value 3.73b / Total Assets 3.12b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.51% (Interest Expense 47.0m / Debt 3.12b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 41.3m (EBIT 52.3m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.25 (Total Current Assets 209.6m / Total Current Liabilities 824.0m)
Debt / Equity = 7.23 (Debt 3.12b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 431.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 13.08 (Net Debt 3.06b / EBITDA 233.7m)
Debt / FCF = 19.72 (Net Debt 3.06b / FCF TTM 155.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 376.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.86% (Net Income 27.7m / Total Assets 3.12b)
RoE = 7.35% (Net Income TTM 27.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 376.3m)
RoCE = 4.84% (EBIT 52.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 376.3m + L.T.Debt 702.8m))
RoIC = 1.72% (NOPAT 41.3m / Invested Capital 2.40b)
WACC = 3.24% (E(677.3m)/V(3.80b) * Re(12.70%) + D(3.12b)/V(3.80b) * Rd(1.51%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -49.19 | Cagr: -0.41%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈120.7m ; Y1≈138.3m ; Y5≈203.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 0.09 (EV 3.06b - Net Debt 3.06b = Equity 7.77m / Shares 85.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
 [DCF] Fair Price = 0.09 (out of range, set to none)
 EPS Correlation: -94.02 | EPS CAGR: -31.76% | SUE: 1.33 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -75.80 | Revenue CAGR: -7.47% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.23 | Chg30d=-0.98% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.95 | Chg30d=-0.67% | Revisions=+79% | GrowthEPS=-16.4% | GrowthRev=+0.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.06 | Chg30d=+1.65% | Revisions=+64% | GrowthEPS=+10.7% | GrowthRev=+1.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +34% (up=22, down=10)