(BTSG) BrightSpring Health - Overview
Stock: Pharmacy, Home, Infusion, Rehab, Behavioral
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.60% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.24 |
| Alpha | 48.10 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.123 |
| Beta Downside | 1.020 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 35.56% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.41 |
Description: BTSG BrightSpring Health January 12, 2026
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:BTSG) operates a nationwide platform that delivers pharmacy-related solutions and provider-driven clinical care in home and community settings. The business is split into two segments-Pharmacy Solutions, which supplies infused, injectable, and oral medications, and Provider Services, which offers skilled home health, rehabilitation (physical, speech, occupational therapy), and applied behavioral analysis to Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial patients.
In FY 2023 the company reported revenue of approximately $2.2 billion, representing a 9 % year-over-year increase driven largely by higher enrollment in its pharmacy contracts and expanded utilization of home-based therapy services. Adjusted EBITDA margin hovered around 6 %, reflecting ongoing investments in technology platforms and workforce expansion. The balance sheet remains solid, with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of roughly 3.2×, giving the firm flexibility to fund organic growth and strategic acquisitions.
The home-health and community-based care market is being propelled by two macro-drivers: (1) the U.S. population aged 65+ is projected to rise from 54 million in 2023 to 73 million by 2035, increasing demand for at-home clinical services; and (2) payer policies-including Medicare’s shift toward value-based reimbursement and expanded coverage for home infusion-are incentivizing providers that can demonstrate cost-effective, outcomes-focused care. BrightSpring’s integrated pharmacy-provider model positions it to capture a share of this secular growth.
For a deeper dive into BrightSpring’s valuation dynamics and how its metrics compare to peers, you may find ValueRay’s analytical tools worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 129.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.34 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.91% < 20% (prev 4.45%; Δ 5.46% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 349.2m > Net Income 129.6m |
| Net Debt (2.56b) to EBITDA (445.8m): 5.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.79 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (218.0m) vs 12m ago 9.82% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.30% > 18% (prev 0.14%; Δ 1216 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 209.8% > 50% (prev 172.9%; Δ 36.83% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.53 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 445.8m / Interest Expense TTM 173.6m) |
Altman Z'' 1.55
| A: 0.20 (Total Current Assets 2.78b - Total Current Liabilities 1.55b) / Total Assets 6.05b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -108.6m / Total Assets 6.05b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 266.2m / Avg Total Assets 5.92b) |
| D: -0.03 (Book Value of Equity -113.1m / Total Liabilities 4.23b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.55 = BB |
Beneish M -3.10
| DSRI: 0.77 (Receivables 1.10b/1.15b, Revenue 12.41b/10.01b) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 12.30% / 13.81%) |
| AQI: 0.79 (AQ_t 0.49 / AQ_t-1 0.62) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 12.41b / 10.01b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 129.6m - CFO 349.2m) / TA 6.05b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of BTSG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.69%, over one month by -2.29%, over three months by +17.38% and over the past year by +63.93%.
Is BTSG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BTSG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 44.1 | 15% |
| Analysts Target Price | 44.1 | 15% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 53 | 38% |
BTSG Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 38.1679
P/S = 0.5401
P/B = 3.9223
Revenue TTM = 12.41b USD
EBIT TTM = 266.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 445.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.47b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 94.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.70b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.56b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 9.74b USD (7.18b + Debt 2.70b - CCE 140.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.53 (Ebit TTM 266.2m / Interest Expense TTM 173.6m)
EV/FCF = 35.29x (Enterprise Value 9.74b / FCF TTM 276.1m)
FCF Yield = 2.83% (FCF TTM 276.1m / Enterprise Value 9.74b)
FCF Margin = 2.22% (FCF TTM 276.1m / Revenue TTM 12.41b)
Net Margin = 1.04% (Net Income TTM 129.6m / Revenue TTM 12.41b)
Gross Margin = 12.30% ((Revenue TTM 12.41b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.89b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.76% (prev 11.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.61 (Enterprise Value 9.74b / Total Assets 6.05b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.42% (Interest Expense 38.2m / Debt 2.70b)
Taxrate = 24.43% (12.1m / 49.6m)
NOPAT = 201.2m (EBIT 266.2m * (1 - 24.43%))
Current Ratio = 1.79 (Total Current Assets 2.78b / Total Current Liabilities 1.55b)
Debt / Equity = 1.48 (Debt 2.70b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.74 (Net Debt 2.56b / EBITDA 445.8m)
Debt / FCF = 9.27 (Net Debt 2.56b / FCF TTM 276.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.72b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.19% (Net Income 129.6m / Total Assets 6.05b)
RoE = 7.52% (Net Income TTM 129.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.72b)
RoCE = 6.35% (EBIT 266.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.72b + L.T.Debt 2.47b))
RoIC = 4.71% (NOPAT 201.2m / Invested Capital 4.27b)
WACC = 7.60% (E(7.18b)/V(9.88b) * Re(10.05%) + D(2.70b)/V(9.88b) * Rd(1.42%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 10.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 12.84%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.11% ; FCFF base≈170.9m ; Y1≈112.2m ; Y5≈51.2m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.08b - Net Debt 2.56b = -1.48b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -19.81 | EPS CAGR: -70.85% | SUE: -3.61 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.23 | Revenue CAGR: 22.35% | SUE: 1.21 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.25 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=9
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.33 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+29.2% | Growth Revenue=+14.8%