BWIN Stock Analysis: The Baldwin Insurance | NASDAQ
Insurance Brokers | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.293m USD | 12M Return: -37.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 38.9M
EPS Trend: 31.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6.7 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) is a U.S.-based independent insurance distribution firm that delivers insurance and risk management solutions through three operating segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions, Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions, and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions. The Advisory segment focuses on private and commercial risk management, employee benefits, and Medicare solutions for businesses and high-net-worth individuals. The Underwriting, Capacity & Technology segment operates an MGA (managing general agent) platform that builds and distributes technology-enabled personal, commercial, and professional lines products. The Mainstreet segment provides personal, commercial, life, and health coverage to individuals and small businesses, along with reinsurance brokerage and consulting on government healthcare programs such as traditional Medicare, Medicare Advantage, and ACA marketplace plans, distributed primarily through independent contractor agents.
The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida. It was formerly known as BRP Group, Inc. and adopted its current name in May 2024. As an insurance broker, Baldwin primarily generates revenue through commissions and fees paid by insurance carriers for placing and servicing policies, rather than by underwriting risk on its own balance sheet. MGA platforms like its Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment act as delegated underwriting authorities, allowing the firm to design, price, and bind coverage on behalf of carrier partners in exchange for a share of premiums.
- Organic growth in Insurance Advisory Solutions accelerates
- MGA platform margins expand as underwriting capacity scales
- Acquisition strategy boosts revenue but elevates integration and debt costs
| Net Income: -45.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.41% < 20% (prev 8.70%; Δ -1.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.00 > 3% & CFO 28.5m > Net Income -45.4m |
| Net Debt (2.52b) to EBITDA (67.5m): 37.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.08 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (69.1m) vs 12m ago -0.40% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 17.29% > 18% (prev 26.51%; Δ -9.21% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 34.12% > 50% (prev 39.64%; Δ -5.52% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.69 > 6 (EBIT TTM -90.0m / Interest Expense TTM 130.4m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.59b - Total Current Liabilities 1.47b) / Total Assets 5.94b |
| B: -0.05 (Retained Earnings -274.9m / Total Assets 5.94b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -90.0m / Avg Total Assets 4.75b) |
| D: 0.22 (Book Value of Equity 963.9m / Total Liabilities 4.39b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.08 = B |
| DSRI: 1.31 (Receivables 1.12b/739.3m, Revenue 1.62b/1.41b) |
| GMI: 1.53 (GM 26.51% / 17.29%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.71 / AQ_t-1 0.68) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 1.62b / 1.41b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI -45.4m - CFO 28.5m) / TA 5.94b) |
| Beneish M = -2.15 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 26.58 with a total of 1,217,664 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.98%, over one month by +31.65%, over three months by +21.15% and over the past year by -37.91%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 23.00 (which is 13.5% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
The Baldwin Insurance has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold BWIN.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 29 | 9.1% |
P/E Forward = 11.1483
P/S = 1.4122
P/B = 2.3777
Revenue TTM = 1.62b USD
EBIT TTM = -90.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 67.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.34b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 153.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.67b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 96.8m
Net Debt = 2.52b USD (calculated: Debt 2.67b - CCE 146.4m)
Enterprise Value = 4.82b USD (2.29b + Debt 2.67b - CCE 146.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.69 (Ebit TTM -90.0m / Interest Expense TTM 130.4m)
EV/FCF = -326.2x (Enterprise Value 4.82b / FCF TTM -14.8m)
FCF Yield = -0.31% (FCF TTM -14.8m / Enterprise Value 4.82b)
FCF Margin = -0.91% (FCF TTM -14.8m / Revenue TTM 1.62b)
Net Margin = -2.80% (Net Income TTM -45.4m / Revenue TTM 1.62b)
Gross Margin = 17.29% ((Revenue TTM 1.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.34b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.74% (prev 3.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.81 (Enterprise Value 4.82b / Total Assets 5.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.88% (Interest Expense 130.4m / Debt 2.67b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -71.1m (EBIT -90.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.08 (Total Current Assets 1.59b / Total Current Liabilities 1.47b)
Debt / Equity = 2.77 (Debt 2.67b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 963.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 37.39 (Net Debt 2.52b / EBITDA 67.5m)
Debt / FCF = -170.9 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 2.52b / FCF TTM -14.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 703.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.96% (Net Income -45.4m / Total Assets 5.94b)
RoE = -6.45% (Net Income TTM -45.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 703.7m)
RoCE = -2.95% (EBIT -90.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 703.7m + L.T.Debt 2.34b))
RoIC = -1.57% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -71.1m / Invested Capital 4.54b)
WACC = 5.02% (E(2.29b)/V(4.96b) * Re(6.38%) + D(2.67b)/V(4.96b) * Rd(4.88%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 67.42 | Cagr: 5.55%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -14.8m)
EPS Correlation: 31.56 | EPS CAGR: 5.28% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.12 | Revenue CAGR: 12.54% | SUE: 1.53 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.45 | Chg30d=+0.75% | Revisions=+33% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.01 | Chg30d=+0.13% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+20.5% | GrowthRev=+33.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.50 | Chg30d=-0.28% | Revisions=+27% | GrowthEPS=+24.4% | GrowthRev=+9.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +33%