BWIN Stock Analysis: The Baldwin Insurance | NASDAQ
Insurance Brokers | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 4.486m USD | 12M Return: 36.8% | US05589G1022 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 58.8M
EPS Trend: 22.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 6.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) is an independent insurance distribution firm headquartered in Tampa, Florida, that delivers insurance and risk management solutions across the United States through three operating segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions, Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions, and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions. The company offers a broad range of products, including private and commercial risk management, employee benefits, Medicare insurance solutions, personal lines, and life and health coverage, while also providing reinsurance brokerage and consultation for government assistance programs such as Medicare and the Affordable Care Act.
The company was founded in 2011 and was previously known as BRP Group, Inc. before adopting its current name in May 2024. As a publicly traded firm in the insurance brokerage sub-industry, Baldwin generates revenue through commissions, fees, and other compensation arrangements with insurance carriers, and its Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment reflects the growing role of managing general agents (MGAs) in the U.S. market, which act as intermediaries that develop, underwrite, and distribute insurance products on behalf of carrier partners.
- M&A pipeline accelerates Insurance Advisory Solutions revenue growth
- MGA platform expansion lifts Underwriting, Capacity & Technology margins
- Hard market pricing boosts commission revenue across all three segments
| Net Income: -81.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.51 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.22% < 20% (prev 16.10%; Δ -8.88% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 90.8m > Net Income -81.2m |
| Net Debt (2.60b) to EBITDA (61.7m): 42.10 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (69.1m) vs 12m ago 1.53% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 9.58% > 18% (prev 26.61%; Δ -17.03% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 35.06% > 50% (prev 38.58%; Δ -3.52% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.88 > 6 (EBIT TTM -126.8m / Interest Expense TTM 144.7m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.85b - Total Current Liabilities 1.72b) / Total Assets 6.17b |
| B: -0.06 (Retained Earnings -368.5m / Total Assets 6.17b) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -126.8m / Avg Total Assets 4.96b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 884.4m / Total Liabilities 4.75b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.04 = B |
| DSRI: 1.20 (Receivables 1.22b/841.1m, Revenue 1.74b/1.44b) |
| GMI: 2.78 (GM 26.61% / 9.58%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.68 / AQ_t-1 0.64) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 1.74b / 1.44b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI -81.2m - CFO 90.8m) / TA 6.17b) |
| Beneish M = -1.07 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 31.95 with a total of 689,049 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.09%, over one month by +0.41%, over three months by +11.60% and over the past year by +36.83%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 31.60 (which is 1.1% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
The Baldwin Insurance has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.88. Therefore, it is recommended to hold BWIN.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 32.4 | 1.5% |
P/E Forward = 12.3001
P/S = 2.5815
P/B = 3.4873
Revenue TTM = 1.74b USD
EBIT TTM = -126.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 61.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.45b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 159.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.78b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 97.1m
Net Debt = 2.60b USD (calculated: Debt 2.78b - CCE 184.5m)
Enterprise Value = 7.09b USD (4.49b + Debt 2.78b - CCE 184.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.88 (Ebit TTM -126.8m / Interest Expense TTM 144.7m)
EV/FCF = 162.1x (Enterprise Value 7.09b / FCF TTM 43.7m)
FCF Yield = 0.62% (FCF TTM 43.7m / Enterprise Value 7.09b)
FCF Margin = 2.52% (FCF TTM 43.7m / Revenue TTM 1.74b)
Net Margin = -4.67% (Net Income TTM -81.2m / Revenue TTM 1.74b)
Gross Margin = 9.58% ((Revenue TTM 1.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.57b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -1.69% (prev 12.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.15 (Enterprise Value 7.09b / Total Assets 6.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.20% (Interest Expense 144.7m / Debt 2.78b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -100.2m (EBIT -126.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.07 (Total Current Assets 1.85b / Total Current Liabilities 1.72b)
Debt / Equity = 3.15 (Debt 2.78b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 884.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 42.10 (Net Debt 2.60b / EBITDA 61.7m)
Debt / FCF = 59.47 (Net Debt 2.60b / FCF TTM 43.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 767.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.64% (Net Income -81.2m / Total Assets 6.17b)
RoE = -10.59% (Net Income TTM -81.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 767.1m)
RoCE = -3.94% (EBIT -126.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 767.1m + L.T.Debt 2.45b))
RoIC = -2.21% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -100.2m / Invested Capital 4.53b)
WACC = 4.98% (E(4.49b)/V(7.27b) * Re(5.53%) + D(2.78b)/V(7.27b) * Rd(5.20%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 5.53% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 83.28 | Cagr: 2.50%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈43.7m ; Y1≈43.9m ; Y5≈46.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 723.1m - Net Debt 2.60b = -1.88b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 22.14 | EPS CAGR: 3.48% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.23 | Revenue CAGR: 13.33% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=+0.05% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.01 | Chg30d=+0.01% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+20.5% | GrowthRev=+33.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.48 | Chg30d=-0.01% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+23.2% | GrowthRev=+9.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +6% (up=7, down=6)