BWIN Stock Analysis: The Baldwin Insurance | NASDAQ
Insurance Brokers | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.089m USD | 12M Return: -2.9% | US05589G1022 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 30.0M
EPS Trend: 22.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 6.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. (BWIN) is a U.S.-based independent insurance distribution firm that delivers insurance and risk management solutions through three operating segments: Insurance Advisory Solutions, Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions, and Mainstreet Insurance Solutions. The Advisory segment focuses on private and commercial risk management, employee benefits, and Medicare solutions for businesses and high-net-worth individuals. The Underwriting, Capacity & Technology segment operates an MGA (managing general agent) platform that builds and distributes technology-enabled personal, commercial, and professional lines products. The Mainstreet segment provides personal, commercial, life, and health coverage to individuals and small businesses, along with reinsurance brokerage and consulting on government healthcare programs such as traditional Medicare, Medicare Advantage, and ACA marketplace plans, distributed primarily through independent contractor agents.
The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida. It was formerly known as BRP Group, Inc. and adopted its current name in May 2024. As an insurance broker, Baldwin primarily generates revenue through commissions and fees paid by insurance carriers for placing and servicing policies, rather than by underwriting risk on its own balance sheet. MGA platforms like its Underwriting, Capacity & Technology Solutions segment act as delegated underwriting authorities, allowing the firm to design, price, and bind coverage on behalf of carrier partners in exchange for a share of premiums.
- Organic growth in Insurance Advisory Solutions accelerates
- MGA platform margins expand as underwriting capacity scales
- Acquisition strategy boosts revenue but elevates integration and debt costs
| Net Income: -81.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.51 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.22% < 20% (prev 16.10%; Δ -8.88% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 90.8m > Net Income -81.2m |
| Net Debt (2.60b) to EBITDA (61.7m): 42.10 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (69.1m) vs 12m ago 1.53% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 9.58% > 18% (prev 26.61%; Δ -17.03% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 35.06% > 50% (prev 38.58%; Δ -3.52% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.88 > 6 (EBIT TTM -126.8m / Interest Expense TTM 144.7m) |
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 1.85b - Total Current Liabilities 1.72b) / Total Assets 6.17b |
| B: -0.06 (Retained Earnings -368.5m / Total Assets 6.17b) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -126.8m / Avg Total Assets 4.96b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 884.4m / Total Liabilities 4.75b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.04 = B |
| DSRI: 1.20 (Receivables 1.22b/841.1m, Revenue 1.74b/1.44b) |
| GMI: 2.78 (GM 26.61% / 9.58%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.68 / AQ_t-1 0.64) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 1.74b / 1.44b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI -81.2m - CFO 90.8m) / TA 6.17b) |
| Beneish M = -1.07 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of August 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.68 with a total of 674,853 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.82%, over one month by +7.16%, over three months by +54.48% and over the past year by -2.94%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 29.00 (which is 5.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
The Baldwin Insurance has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold BWIN.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 32.2 | 5% |
P/E Forward = 15.5763
P/S = 1.7776
P/B = 3.4961
Revenue TTM = 1.74b USD
EBIT TTM = -126.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 61.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.45b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 159.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.78b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 97.1m
Net Debt = 2.60b USD (calculated: Debt 2.78b - CCE 184.5m)
Enterprise Value = 5.69b USD (3.09b + Debt 2.78b - CCE 184.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.88 (Ebit TTM -126.8m / Interest Expense TTM 144.7m)
EV/FCF = 130.2x (Enterprise Value 5.69b / FCF TTM 43.7m)
FCF Yield = 0.77% (FCF TTM 43.7m / Enterprise Value 5.69b)
FCF Margin = 2.52% (FCF TTM 43.7m / Revenue TTM 1.74b)
Net Margin = -4.67% (Net Income TTM -81.2m / Revenue TTM 1.74b)
Gross Margin = 9.58% ((Revenue TTM 1.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.57b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -1.69% (prev 12.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 5.69b / Total Assets 6.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.20% (Interest Expense 144.7m / Debt 2.78b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -100.2m (EBIT -126.8m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.07 (Total Current Assets 1.85b / Total Current Liabilities 1.72b)
Debt / Equity = 3.15 (Debt 2.78b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 884.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 42.10 (Net Debt 2.60b / EBITDA 61.7m)
Debt / FCF = 59.47 (Net Debt 2.60b / FCF TTM 43.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 767.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.64% (Net Income -81.2m / Total Assets 6.17b)
RoE = -10.59% (Net Income TTM -81.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 767.1m)
RoCE = -3.94% (EBIT -126.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 767.1m + L.T.Debt 2.45b))
RoIC = -2.21% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -100.2m / Invested Capital 4.53b)
WACC = 5.19% (E(3.09b)/V(5.87b) * Re(6.16%) + D(2.78b)/V(5.87b) * Rd(5.20%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 83.28 | Cagr: 2.50%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈43.7m ; Y1≈43.9m ; Y5≈46.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 723.1m - Net Debt 2.60b = -1.88b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 22.14 | EPS CAGR: 3.48% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.23 | Revenue CAGR: 13.33% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=-2.79% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.01 | Chg30d=-0.44% | Revisions=-30% | GrowthEPS=+20.2% | GrowthRev=+33.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.48 | Chg30d=-0.72% | Revisions=-30% | GrowthEPS=+23.7% | GrowthRev=+9.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=4, down=15)