(CAKE) The Cheesecake Factory - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: NASDAQ •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US1630721017
Cheesecakes, Baked Goods, Restaurant Meals, Licensed Brands
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.30% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.27% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 31.61% |
| Payout Consistency | 80.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 28.4% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 34.5% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 53.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.28% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.11 |
| Alpha | -19.00 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.43 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.450 |
| Beta | 0.979 |
| Beta Downside | 1.090 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.39% |
| Mean DD | 11.34% |
| Median DD | 10.21% |
Description: CAKE The Cheesecake Factory November 08, 2025
The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) operates a portfolio of full-service restaurant brands-including The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and Fox Restaurant Concepts-in the United States and Canada, and runs in-house bakeries that supply its own locations, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, and food-service distributors. Founded in 1972 and headquartered in Calabasas, California, the company combines restaurant operations with a sizable baked-goods business to diversify revenue streams.
Key recent metrics (Q3 2024) show a 5.2% year-over-year increase in comparable restaurant sales and a 3.8% rise in average check size, while the combined restaurant-plus-bakery segment delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5%, down modestly from 14.2% a year earlier due to higher labor and commodity costs. The chain’s growth is closely tied to discretionary consumer spending trends and the broader full-service dining outlook, which is currently pressured by inflation-driven price sensitivity and a competitive shift toward fast-casual concepts.
For a deeper dive into how these drivers translate into valuation risk and upside, you might explore the detailed analyst models on ValueRay to see the sensitivity of CAKE’s price target to changes in same-store sales and margin assumptions.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (160.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 222.7m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.58pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -9.36% (prev -10.33%; Δ 0.96pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 (>3.0%) and CFO 320.4m > Net Income 160.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.95b) to EBITDA (291.2m) ratio: 6.69 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.55 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (48.6m) change vs 12m ago -0.67% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 69.64% (prev 38.98%; Δ 30.66pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 120.2% (prev 120.5%; Δ -0.34pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 15.93 (EBITDA TTM 291.2m / Interest Expense TTM 11.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.62
| (A) -0.11 = (Total Current Assets 423.9m - Total Current Liabilities 771.4m) / Total Assets 3.24b |
| (B) 0.43 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.40b / Total Assets 3.24b |
| (C) 0.06 = EBIT TTM 184.5m / Avg Total Assets 3.09b |
| (D) 0.50 = Book Value of Equity 1.40b / Total Liabilities 2.82b |
| Total Rating: 1.62 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 72.10
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.79% |
| 3. FCF Margin 4.28% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 5.03 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 6.69 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 11.54)% |
| 7. RoE 39.97% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 85.50% |
| 9. EPS Trend 64.53% |
What is the price of CAKE shares?
As of December 07, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 46.98 with a total of 790,933 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.43%, over one month by -1.97%, over three months by -22.07% and over the past year by -4.91%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.43%, over one month by -1.97%, over three months by -22.07% and over the past year by -4.91%.
Is CAKE a buy, sell or hold?
The Cheesecake Factory has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.53.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold CAKE.
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 2
- Strong Sell: 2
What are the forecasts/targets for the CAKE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 59.2 | 26.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 59.2 | 26.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 45.7 | -2.7% |
CAKE Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
Market Cap USD = 2.24b (2.24b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 13.6778
P/E Forward = 11.3507
P/S = 0.6044
P/B = 5.3176
P/EG = 0.9454
Beta = 0.954
Revenue TTM = 3.71b USD
EBIT TTM = 184.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 291.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 560.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 234.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.14b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.95b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.19b USD (2.24b + Debt 2.14b - CCE 190.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.93 (Ebit TTM 184.5m / Interest Expense TTM 11.6m)
FCF Yield = 3.79% (FCF TTM 158.9m / Enterprise Value 4.19b)
FCF Margin = 4.28% (FCF TTM 158.9m / Revenue TTM 3.71b)
Net Margin = 4.33% (Net Income TTM 160.8m / Revenue TTM 3.71b)
Gross Margin = 69.64% ((Revenue TTM 3.71b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.13b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 78.21% (prev 78.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.29 (Enterprise Value 4.19b / Total Assets 3.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.11% (Interest Expense 2.25m / Debt 2.14b)
Taxrate = 10.10% (3.58m / 35.5m)
NOPAT = 165.8m (EBIT 184.5m * (1 - 10.10%))
Current Ratio = 0.55 (Total Current Assets 423.9m / Total Current Liabilities 771.4m)
Debt / Equity = 5.03 (Debt 2.14b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 425.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.69 (Net Debt 1.95b / EBITDA 291.2m)
Debt / FCF = 12.27 (Net Debt 1.95b / FCF TTM 158.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 402.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.96% (Net Income 160.8m / Total Assets 3.24b)
RoE = 39.97% (Net Income TTM 160.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 402.3m)
RoCE = 19.16% (EBIT 184.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 402.3m + L.T.Debt 560.4m))
RoIC = 16.51% (NOPAT 165.8m / Invested Capital 1.00b)
WACC = 4.97% (E(2.24b)/V(4.38b) * Re(9.62%) + D(2.14b)/V(4.38b) * Rd(0.11%) * (1-Tc(0.10)))
Discount Rate = 9.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.57% ; FCFE base≈122.6m ; Y1≈128.8m ; Y5≈150.8m
Fair Price DCF = 40.43 (DCF Value 2.01b / Shares Outstanding 49.8m; 5y FCF grow 5.46% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 64.53 | EPS CAGR: 9.13% | SUE: 1.41 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 85.50 | Revenue CAGR: 4.23% | SUE: -0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.02 | Chg30d=-0.007 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=18
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.00 | Chg30d=-0.168 | Revisions Net=-18 | Growth EPS=+6.6% | Growth Revenue=+4.6%
P/E Trailing = 13.6778
P/E Forward = 11.3507
P/S = 0.6044
P/B = 5.3176
P/EG = 0.9454
Beta = 0.954
Revenue TTM = 3.71b USD
EBIT TTM = 184.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 291.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 560.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 234.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.14b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.95b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.19b USD (2.24b + Debt 2.14b - CCE 190.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.93 (Ebit TTM 184.5m / Interest Expense TTM 11.6m)
FCF Yield = 3.79% (FCF TTM 158.9m / Enterprise Value 4.19b)
FCF Margin = 4.28% (FCF TTM 158.9m / Revenue TTM 3.71b)
Net Margin = 4.33% (Net Income TTM 160.8m / Revenue TTM 3.71b)
Gross Margin = 69.64% ((Revenue TTM 3.71b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.13b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 78.21% (prev 78.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.29 (Enterprise Value 4.19b / Total Assets 3.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.11% (Interest Expense 2.25m / Debt 2.14b)
Taxrate = 10.10% (3.58m / 35.5m)
NOPAT = 165.8m (EBIT 184.5m * (1 - 10.10%))
Current Ratio = 0.55 (Total Current Assets 423.9m / Total Current Liabilities 771.4m)
Debt / Equity = 5.03 (Debt 2.14b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 425.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.69 (Net Debt 1.95b / EBITDA 291.2m)
Debt / FCF = 12.27 (Net Debt 1.95b / FCF TTM 158.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 402.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.96% (Net Income 160.8m / Total Assets 3.24b)
RoE = 39.97% (Net Income TTM 160.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 402.3m)
RoCE = 19.16% (EBIT 184.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 402.3m + L.T.Debt 560.4m))
RoIC = 16.51% (NOPAT 165.8m / Invested Capital 1.00b)
WACC = 4.97% (E(2.24b)/V(4.38b) * Re(9.62%) + D(2.14b)/V(4.38b) * Rd(0.11%) * (1-Tc(0.10)))
Discount Rate = 9.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.57% ; FCFE base≈122.6m ; Y1≈128.8m ; Y5≈150.8m
Fair Price DCF = 40.43 (DCF Value 2.01b / Shares Outstanding 49.8m; 5y FCF grow 5.46% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 64.53 | EPS CAGR: 9.13% | SUE: 1.41 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 85.50 | Revenue CAGR: 4.23% | SUE: -0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.02 | Chg30d=-0.007 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=18
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.00 | Chg30d=-0.168 | Revisions Net=-18 | Growth EPS=+6.6% | Growth Revenue=+4.6%
Additional Sources for CAKE Stock
News:
Wall Street Journal |
Benzinga |
Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle