CAKE Stock Analysis: The Cheesecake Factory | NASDAQ
Restaurants | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.820m USD | 12M Return: 24.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 105M
EPS Trend: 93.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.7%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ: CAKE) is a Calabasas, California-based restaurant operator and licensor founded in 1972. The company runs and licenses casual-dining establishments across the United States and Canada under multiple brands, including The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and Fox Restaurant Concepts. In addition to its restaurant operations, it operates production bakeries that supply cheesecakes and other baked goods to its own locations, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. The company has been publicly traded since its 1992 IPO and is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sectors Restaurants sub-industry.
- Same-store sales growth at Cheesecake Factory and North Italia restaurants
- Restaurant margin pressure from food and labor cost inflation
- Consumer discretionary spending weakness pressures casual dining traffic
| Net Income: 165.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.53 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -8.32% < 20% (prev -8.93%; Δ 0.60% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 317.9m > Net Income 165.0m |
| Net Debt (3.42b) to EBITDA (302.8m): 11.29 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.59 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (48.5m) vs 12m ago -2.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 62.26% > 18% (prev 51.67%; Δ 10.60% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 118.7% > 50% (prev 116.3%; Δ 2.41% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 18.97 > 6 (EBIT TTM 191.9m / Interest Expense TTM 10.1m) |
| A: -0.10 (Total Current Assets 464.8m - Total Current Liabilities 781.3m) / Total Assets 3.30b |
| B: 0.44 (Retained Earnings 1.45b / Total Assets 3.30b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 191.9m / Avg Total Assets 3.20b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 459.2m / Total Liabilities 2.84b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.37 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.36 (Receivables 118.2m/82.9m, Revenue 3.80b/3.62b) |
| GMI: 0.83 (GM 51.67% / 62.26%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 3.80b / 3.62b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 165.0m - CFO 317.9m) / TA 3.30b) |
| Beneish M = -2.86 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 78.42 with a total of 1,109,046 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.53%, over one month by +15.43%, over three months by +34.10% and over the past year by +24.71%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 75.00 (which is 4.4% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
The Cheesecake Factory has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.53. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CAKE.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 67.5 | -14% |
P/E Trailing = 22.5484
P/E Forward = 19.5695
P/S = 1.0044
P/B = 8.5673
P/EG = 1.6313
Revenue TTM = 3.80b USD
EBIT TTM = 191.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 302.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 562.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 239.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.65b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.51b
Net Debt = 3.42b USD (calculated: Debt 3.65b - CCE 235.1m)
Enterprise Value = 7.24b USD (3.82b + Debt 3.65b - CCE 235.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 18.97 (Ebit TTM 191.9m / Interest Expense TTM 10.1m)
EV/FCF = 42.29x (Enterprise Value 7.24b / FCF TTM 171.2m)
FCF Yield = 2.36% (FCF TTM 171.2m / Enterprise Value 7.24b)
FCF Margin = 4.50% (FCF TTM 171.2m / Revenue TTM 3.80b)
Net Margin = 4.34% (Net Income TTM 165.0m / Revenue TTM 3.80b)
Gross Margin = 62.26% ((Revenue TTM 3.80b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.78% (prev 78.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.20 (Enterprise Value 7.24b / Total Assets 3.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.28% (Interest Expense 10.1m / Debt 3.65b)
Taxrate = 9.20% (16.7m / 181.8m)
NOPAT = 174.2m (EBIT 191.9m * (1 - 9.20%))
Current Ratio = 0.59 (Total Current Assets 464.8m / Total Current Liabilities 781.3m)
Debt / Equity = 7.95 (Debt 3.65b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 459.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.29 (Net Debt 3.42b / EBITDA 302.8m)
Debt / FCF = 19.97 (Net Debt 3.42b / FCF TTM 171.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 430.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.15% (Net Income 165.0m / Total Assets 3.30b)
RoE = 38.34% (Net Income TTM 165.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 430.5m)
RoCE = 19.33% (EBIT 191.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 430.5m + L.T.Debt 562.1m))
RoIC = 6.79% (NOPAT 174.2m / Invested Capital 2.56b)
WACC = 5.18% (E(3.82b)/V(7.47b) * Re(9.89%) + D(3.65b)/V(7.47b) * Rd(0.28%) * (1-Tc(0.09)))
Discount Rate = 9.89% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -11.11 | Cagr: -0.14%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈148.2m ; Y1≈169.9m ; Y5≈250.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 6.94 (EV 3.76b - Net Debt 3.42b = Equity 345.1m / Shares 49.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 93.27 | EPS CAGR: 21.34% | SUE: -0.12 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.73 | Revenue CAGR: 4.10% | SUE: 2.13 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.14 | Chg30d=-0.03% | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=17
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.66 | Chg30d=-1.22% | Revisions=-5% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.03 | Chg30d=-0.02% | Revisions=+6% | GrowthEPS=+7.0% | GrowthRev=+4.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.44 | Chg30d=-0.13% | Revisions=+35% | GrowthEPS=+10.2% | GrowthRev=+6.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -5% (up=30, down=33)