(CAKE) The Cheesecake Factory - Overview
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Restaurants | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 2.905m USD | Total Return: 12.5% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 68.5M
EPS Trend: 95.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 98.7%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ: CAKE) is a vertically integrated casual dining operator and bakery manufacturer. The company maintains a multi-brand portfolio including its namesake concept, North Italia, and Flower Child, while also functioning as a large-scale commercial bakery supplier for international licensees and third-party retailers. This dual business model allows the company to capture margins from both restaurant operations and consumer packaged goods distribution.
Operating within the casual dining sector, the company faces high sensitivity to labor costs and food commodity volatility. Unlike many competitors that rely on heavy franchising, CAKE primarily utilizes a company-owned restaurant model to maintain strict control over menu complexity and service standards. For a deeper look into these financial drivers, ValueRay provides additional fundamental data. The company’s headquarters remain in Calabasas, California, where it has expanded its footprint since its founding in 1972.
- High menu price sensitivity impacts traffic volume amidst persistent grocery price deflation
- Wage inflation and labor turnover pressure restaurant-level operating margins
- Expansion of North Italia and Flower Child brands diversifies revenue streams
- Elevated dairy and sugar costs impact vertically integrated bakery production margins
- Consumer discretionary spending shifts dictate same-store sales growth across premium brands
| Net Income: 165.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.53 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -8.32% < 20% (prev -8.93%; Δ 0.60% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 317.9m > Net Income 165.0m |
| Net Debt (3.42b) to EBITDA (302.5m): 11.30 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.59 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (48.5m) vs 12m ago -2.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 62.26% > 18% (prev 0.52%; Δ 6.17k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 118.7% > 50% (prev 116.3%; Δ 2.41% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 18.94 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 302.5m / Interest Expense TTM 10.1m) |
| A: -0.10 (Total Current Assets 464.8m - Total Current Liabilities 781.3m) / Total Assets 3.30b |
| B: 0.44 (Retained Earnings 1.45b / Total Assets 3.30b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 191.6m / Avg Total Assets 3.20b) |
| D: 0.51 (Book Value of Equity 1.45b / Total Liabilities 2.84b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.74 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.36 (Receivables 118.2m/82.9m, Revenue 3.80b/3.62b) |
| GMI: 0.83 (GM 62.26% / 51.67%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 3.80b / 3.62b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 165.0m - CFO 317.9m) / TA 3.30b) |
| Beneish M = -2.90 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of May 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 60.57 with a total of 724,639 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.77%,
over one month by -0.45%,
over three months by -4.05% and
over the past year by +12.53%.
The Cheesecake Factory has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.53. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CAKE.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 66.8 | 10.2% |
P/E Forward = 15.2439
P/S = 0.7638
P/B = 6.6701
P/EG = 1.2701
Revenue TTM = 3.80b USD
EBIT TTM = 191.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 302.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 562.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 239.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.65b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.51b
Net Debt = 3.42b USD (calculated: Debt 3.65b - CCE 235.1m)
Enterprise Value = 6.32b USD (2.91b + Debt 3.65b - CCE 235.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 18.94 (Ebit TTM 191.6m / Interest Expense TTM 10.1m)
EV/FCF = 36.94x (Enterprise Value 6.32b / FCF TTM 171.2m)
FCF Yield = 2.71% (FCF TTM 171.2m / Enterprise Value 6.32b)
FCF Margin = 4.50% (FCF TTM 171.2m / Revenue TTM 3.80b)
Net Margin = 4.34% (Net Income TTM 165.0m / Revenue TTM 3.80b)
Gross Margin = 62.26% ((Revenue TTM 3.80b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.78% (prev 78.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.92 (Enterprise Value 6.32b / Total Assets 3.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.28% (Interest Expense 10.1m / Debt 3.65b)
Taxrate = 7.13% (3.80m / 53.4m)
NOPAT = 177.9m (EBIT 191.6m * (1 - 7.13%))
Current Ratio = 0.59 (Total Current Assets 464.8m / Total Current Liabilities 781.3m)
Debt / Equity = 7.95 (Debt 3.65b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 459.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.30 (Net Debt 3.42b / EBITDA 302.5m)
Debt / FCF = 19.97 (Net Debt 3.42b / FCF TTM 171.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 430.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.15% (Net Income 165.0m / Total Assets 3.30b)
RoE = 38.34% (Net Income TTM 165.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 430.5m)
RoCE = 19.30% (EBIT 191.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 430.5m + L.T.Debt 562.1m))
RoIC = 6.46% (NOPAT 177.9m / Invested Capital 2.76b)
WACC = 4.63% (E(2.91b)/V(6.56b) * Re(10.13%) + D(3.65b)/V(6.56b) * Rd(0.28%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 10.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -11.11 | Cagr: -0.14%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈148.2m ; Y1≈169.9m ; Y5≈250.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 6.94 (EV 3.76b - Net Debt 3.42b = Equity 345.1m / Shares 49.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 95.03 | EPS CAGR: 24.44% | SUE: 0.92 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 98.73 | Revenue CAGR: 4.10% | SUE: 2.13 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.14 | Chg30d=-7.91% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=18
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.67 | Chg30d=-1.67% | Revisions=-4% | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.03 | Chg30d=-0.00% | Revisions=+5% | GrowthEPS=+7.0% | GrowthRev=+4.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.45 | Chg30d=+0.44% | Revisions=+33% | GrowthEPS=+10.3% | GrowthRev=+6.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62%