CDNA Stock Analysis: CareDx | NASDAQ
Diagnostics & Research | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.700m USD | 12M Return: 504.1% | US14167L1035 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 84.1M
Qual. Beats: 5
Rev. Trend: 95.0%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
CareDx, Inc. (NASDAQ: CDNA) is a transplant-focused diagnostics and healthcare technology company headquartered in Brisbane, California. It provides a suite of molecular and software products designed to monitor organ transplant rejection and support transplant patient management, including donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) tests (AlloSure Kidney, Heart, and Lung), gene expression profiling (AlloMap Heart), biopsy-based rejection analysis (HistoMap Kidney), HLA typing solutions (QTYPE, Olerup SSP, AlloSeq Tx), and stem cell transplant chimerism testing (AlloSeq HCT). The company also offers complementary software tools such as Ottr, XynQAPI, and MedActionPlan, and holds a licensing agreement with Illumina for NGS-based products and technologies.
Operating within the Biotechnology sub-industry of Health Care, CareDx sits in the specialized niche of transplant diagnostics, an area characterized by recurring testing revenue tied to long-term patient monitoring. Its business model combines proprietary laboratory-developed tests with transplant center software services, creating a workflow-integrated offering that extends beyond single-product diagnostics. The company was incorporated in 1998 (formerly XDx, Inc.) and went public on NASDAQ in July 2014.
- AlloSure Kidney test volume drives recurring revenue growth
- CMS reimbursement coverage decisions impact transplant test adoption
- Competition from Natera pressures dd-cfDNA market share
| Net Income: 111.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 13.28 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 73.24% < 20% (prev 62.82%; Δ 10.42% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 93.7m > Net Income 111.0m |
| Net Debt (-354.4m) to EBITDA (15.6m): -22.78 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.58 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (53.4m) vs 12m ago -1.62% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 70.58% > 18% (prev 66.90%; Δ 3.68% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 93.75% > 50% (prev 76.72%; Δ 17.03% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.63 (Total Current Assets 429.2m - Total Current Liabilities 93.7m) / Total Assets 533.0m |
| B: -0.95 (Retained Earnings -505.4m / Total Assets 533.0m) |
| C: -0.01 (EBIT TTM -4.23m / Avg Total Assets 488.6m) |
| D: 3.96 (Book Value of Equity 425.6m / Total Liabilities 107.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.14 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.38 (Receivables 34.4m/67.4m, Revenue 458.1m/340.8m) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 66.90% / 70.58%) |
| AQI: 0.64 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.18) |
| SGI: 1.34 (Revenue 458.1m / 340.8m) |
| TATA: 0.03 (NI 111.0m - CFO 93.7m) / TA 533.0m) |
| Beneish M = -3.55 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 31, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 87.41 with a total of 3,552,499 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +26.30%, over one month by +36.54%, over three months by +129.42% and over the past year by +504.08%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 83.10 (which is 4.9% or 1.1 ATR below the current price).
CareDx has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.43. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CDNA.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 65.3 | -25.3% |
P/E Trailing = 34.3846
P/E Forward = 208.3333
P/S = 8.0771
P/B = 8.6755
P/EG = -0.12
Revenue TTM = 458.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -4.23m USD
EBITDA TTM = 15.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 13.2m USD (estimated: total debt 19.2m - short term 6.05m)
Short Term Debt = 6.05m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 19.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 19.2m already included)
Net Debt = -354.4m USD (calculated: Debt 19.2m - CCE 373.6m)
Enterprise Value = 3.35b USD (3.70b + Debt 19.2m - CCE 373.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -4.23m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 39.34x (Enterprise Value 3.35b / FCF TTM 85.0m)
FCF Yield = 2.54% (FCF TTM 85.0m / Enterprise Value 3.35b)
FCF Margin = 18.57% (FCF TTM 85.0m / Revenue TTM 458.1m)
Net Margin = 24.23% (Net Income TTM 111.0m / Revenue TTM 458.1m)
Gross Margin = 70.58% ((Revenue TTM 458.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 134.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 73.50% (prev 71.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.28 (Enterprise Value 3.35b / Total Assets 533.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 19.2m)
Taxrate = 3.63% (4.18m / 115.2m)
NOPAT = -4.08m (EBIT -4.23m * (1 - 3.63%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 4.58 (Total Current Assets 429.2m / Total Current Liabilities 93.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.05 (Debt 19.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 425.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -22.78 (Net Debt -354.4m / EBITDA 15.6m)
Debt / FCF = -4.17 (Net Debt -354.4m / FCF TTM 85.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 338.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 22.72% (Net Income 111.0m / Total Assets 533.0m)
RoE = 32.81% (Net Income TTM 111.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 338.3m)
RoCE = -1.20% (EBIT -4.23m / Capital Employed (Equity 338.3m + L.T.Debt 13.2m))
RoIC = -0.97% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -4.08m / Invested Capital 422.4m)
WACC = 8.25% (E(3.70b)/V(3.72b) * Re(8.29%) + D(19.2m)/V(3.72b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.04)))
Discount Rate = 8.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -1.08 | Cagr: 1.47%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈55.8m ; Y1≈63.9m ; Y5≈94.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 34.22 (EV 1.42b - Net Debt -354.4m = Equity 1.77b / Shares 51.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 94.96 | Revenue CAGR: 17.83% | SUE: 2.00 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=0.25 | Chg30d=-7.25% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.20 | Chg30d=-0.50% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+106.6% | GrowthRev=+30.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.29 | Chg30d=-2.91% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+7.6% | GrowthRev=+6.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +71% (up=13, down=1)