(CDNA) CareDx - Ratings and Ratios
AlloSure, AlloMap, AlloSeq, Olerup, Ottr, AlloCare
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 78.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 113% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.95% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.06 |
| Alpha | -46.89 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.10 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.331 |
| Beta | 1.270 |
| Beta Downside | 0.958 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 72.17% |
| Mean DD | 40.22% |
| Median DD | 44.35% |
Description: CDNA CareDx November 17, 2025
CareDx, Inc. (NASDAQ: CDNA) develops and commercializes molecular diagnostic tools for transplant monitoring, including donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) assays (AlloSure Kidney, Heart, Lung) and gene-expression tests (AlloMap Heart), alongside high-resolution HLA typing and transplant-management software. The portfolio is sold directly and through distributors, with strategic NGS licensing from Illumina and a partnership with Cibiltech for the iBox kidney-loss prediction platform.
In its most recent fiscal year (2023), CareDx reported revenue of roughly $330 million, driven primarily by double-digit growth in the AlloSure Kidney and AlloMap Heart lines, while operating cash flow remained positive despite ongoing R&D investment. The company’s market opportunity is anchored to the expanding U.S. transplant volume-estimated to exceed 45,000 solid-organ transplants annually-and to increasing payer acceptance of reimbursable dd-cfDNA testing, which is projected to lift per-test pricing power over the next 12-18 months.
Key sector dynamics include the broader shift toward precision-medicine diagnostics in biotech, accelerated adoption of next-generation sequencing (NGS) platforms, and regulatory pathways that favor non-invasive monitoring tools. Competitive pressure is rising from emerging cfDNA players and large diagnostics firms expanding into transplant care, making CareDx’s integrated software suite (Ottr, XynQAPI, AlloCare) a potential moat if adoption scales.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform provides granular financial and valuation metrics on CDNA that can help you assess the trade-off between growth prospects and valuation risk.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (60.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 21.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.09 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 8.32pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 56.21% (prev 80.78%; Δ -24.56pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 (>3.0%) and CFO 42.6m <= Net Income 60.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 3.03 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (53.7m) change vs 12m ago 1.58% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 67.44% (prev 65.75%; Δ 1.69pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 78.74% (prev 65.57%; Δ 13.17pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -0.29 (EBITDA TTM -9.20m / Interest Expense TTM -99.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -9.08
| (A) 0.47 = (Total Current Assets 300.3m - Total Current Liabilities 99.0m) / Total Assets 432.3m |
| (B) -1.66 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -719.0m / Total Assets 432.3m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -1.66 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.06 = EBIT TTM -29.0m / Avg Total Assets 454.6m |
| (D) -5.98 = Book Value of Equity -725.0m / Total Liabilities 121.2m |
| Total Rating: -9.08 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 49.94
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.35% |
| 3. FCF Margin 10.36% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.09 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 6.93 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -19.08)% |
| 7. RoE 17.41% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 42.70% |
| 9. EPS Trend 70.55% |
What is the price of CDNA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.03%, over one month by -8.89%, over three months by +16.43% and over the past year by -28.25%.
Is CDNA a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CDNA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 23 | 33.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 23 | 33.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 17.6 | 2.3% |
CDNA Fundamental Data Overview January 05, 2026
P/E Forward = 80.0
P/S = 2.8457
P/B = 3.1639
P/EG = -0.12
Beta = 2.544
Revenue TTM = 358.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -29.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -9.20m USD
Long Term Debt = 27.6m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.43m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 27.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -63.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 852.2m USD (1.02b + Debt 27.6m - CCE 194.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.29 (Ebit TTM -29.0m / Interest Expense TTM -99.6m)
FCF Yield = 4.35% (FCF TTM 37.1m / Enterprise Value 852.2m)
FCF Margin = 10.36% (FCF TTM 37.1m / Revenue TTM 358.0m)
Net Margin = 16.97% (Net Income TTM 60.8m / Revenue TTM 358.0m)
Gross Margin = 67.44% ((Revenue TTM 358.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 116.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.71% (prev 66.94%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.97 (Enterprise Value 852.2m / Total Assets 432.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.39% (Interest Expense 2.87m / Debt 27.6m)
Taxrate = -0.90% (negative due to tax credits) (-15.0k / 1.66m)
NOPAT = -29.3m (EBIT -29.0m * (1 - -0.90%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 3.03 (Total Current Assets 300.3m / Total Current Liabilities 99.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.09 (Debt 27.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 311.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.93 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -63.8m / EBITDA -9.20m)
Debt / FCF = -1.72 (Net Debt -63.8m / FCF TTM 37.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 349.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.37% (Net Income 60.8m / Total Assets 432.3m)
RoE = 17.41% (Net Income TTM 60.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 349.1m)
RoCE = -7.71% (EBIT -29.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 349.1m + L.T.Debt 27.6m))
RoIC = -8.40% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -29.3m / Invested Capital 349.1m)
WACC = 10.68% (E(1.02b)/V(1.05b) * Re(10.69%) + D(27.6m)/V(1.05b) * Rd(10.39%) * (1-Tc(-0.01)))
Discount Rate = 10.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.95%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 59.56% ; FCFF base≈22.7m ; Y1≈14.9m ; Y5≈6.83m
Fair Price DCF = 3.04 (EV 92.5m - Net Debt -63.8m = Equity 156.3m / Shares 51.4m; r=10.68% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 70.55 | EPS CAGR: 34.79% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 42.70 | Revenue CAGR: 6.42% | SUE: 0.52 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.21 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.87 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+26.9% | Growth Revenue=+11.5%
Additional Sources for CDNA Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle