(CDNA) CareDx - Overview
Stock: AlloSure, AlloMap, AlloSeq, Olerup, Ottr
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 82.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.12 |
| Alpha | -36.41 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.286 |
| Beta Downside | 0.924 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 70.87% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.12 |
Description: CDNA CareDx January 20, 2026
CareDx, Inc. (NASDAQ: CDNA) develops, markets, and services molecular diagnostic tools aimed at monitoring organ transplant recipients, primarily in the United States but with expanding international reach.
The core product suite includes donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) assays-AlloSure Kidney, AlloSure Heart, and AlloSure Lung-plus gene-expression panels such as AlloMap Heart, complemented by high-resolution HLA typing (AlloSeq Tx), chimerism testing (AlloSeq HCT), and a suite of software platforms (Ottr, XynQAPI, AlloCare) that integrate clinical data for transplant management.
CareDx distributes its solutions both directly and through third-party channels, leveraging strategic licenses with Illumina for next-generation sequencing technology and with Cibiltech SAS for the iBox predictive analytics platform.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue of approximately $210 million, representing a 12 % year-over-year increase driven by higher adoption of dd-cfDNA testing; a cash runway of roughly $150 million, giving the company ~18 months of operating liquidity; and a gross margin of ~68 %, reflecting the high-value, low-variable-cost nature of its NGS-based assays. The broader transplant diagnostics market is expanding at a CAGR of ~8 % due to rising transplant volumes, growing reimbursement for molecular monitoring, and accelerating NGS cost declines-factors that underpin CareDx’s growth outlook.
For a deeper, data-driven view of CDNA’s valuation and risk profile, you may find ValueRay’s analyst framework worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 60.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.32 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 56.21% < 20% (prev 80.78%; Δ -24.56% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 42.6m > Net Income 60.8m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (53.7m) vs 12m ago 1.58% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 67.44% > 18% (prev 0.66%; Δ 6678 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 78.74% > 50% (prev 65.57%; Δ 13.17% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.29 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -9.20m / Interest Expense TTM -99.6m) |
Altman Z'' -9.08
| A: 0.47 (Total Current Assets 300.3m - Total Current Liabilities 99.0m) / Total Assets 432.3m |
| B: -1.66 (Retained Earnings -719.0m / Total Assets 432.3m) |
| C: -0.06 (EBIT TTM -29.0m / Avg Total Assets 454.6m) |
| D: -5.98 (Book Value of Equity -725.0m / Total Liabilities 121.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -9.08 = D |
Beneish M -3.19
| DSRI: 0.63 (Receivables 47.8m/66.6m, Revenue 358.0m/312.8m) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 67.44% / 65.75%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.18 / AQ_t-1 0.17) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 358.0m / 312.8m) |
| TATA: 0.04 (NI 60.8m - CFO 42.6m) / TA 432.3m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.19 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of CDNA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.26%, over one month by +3.51%, over three months by +29.71% and over the past year by -14.23%.
Is CDNA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CDNA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 22 | 13% |
| Analysts Target Price | 22 | 13% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.7 | 6.2% |
CDNA Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 85.4701
P/S = 3.0554
P/B = 3.397
P/EG = -0.12
Revenue TTM = 358.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -29.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -9.20m USD
Long Term Debt = 27.6m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.43m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 27.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -63.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 927.2m USD (1.09b + Debt 27.6m - CCE 194.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.29 (Ebit TTM -29.0m / Interest Expense TTM -99.6m)
EV/FCF = 25.00x (Enterprise Value 927.2m / FCF TTM 37.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.00% (FCF TTM 37.1m / Enterprise Value 927.2m)
FCF Margin = 10.36% (FCF TTM 37.1m / Revenue TTM 358.0m)
Net Margin = 16.97% (Net Income TTM 60.8m / Revenue TTM 358.0m)
Gross Margin = 67.44% ((Revenue TTM 358.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 116.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.71% (prev 66.94%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.14 (Enterprise Value 927.2m / Total Assets 432.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.39% (Interest Expense 2.87m / Debt 27.6m)
Taxrate = 0.59% (310.0k / 52.9m)
NOPAT = -28.9m (EBIT -29.0m * (1 - 0.59%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.03 (Total Current Assets 300.3m / Total Current Liabilities 99.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.09 (Debt 27.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 311.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.93 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -63.8m / EBITDA -9.20m)
Debt / FCF = -1.72 (Net Debt -63.8m / FCF TTM 37.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 349.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.37% (Net Income 60.8m / Total Assets 432.3m)
RoE = 17.41% (Net Income TTM 60.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 349.1m)
RoCE = -7.71% (EBIT -29.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 349.1m + L.T.Debt 27.6m))
RoIC = -8.27% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -28.9m / Invested Capital 349.1m)
WACC = 10.65% (E(1.09b)/V(1.12b) * Re(10.66%) + D(27.6m)/V(1.12b) * Rd(10.39%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 10.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.95%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 59.31% ; FCFF base≈22.7m ; Y1≈14.9m ; Y5≈6.81m
Fair Price DCF = 3.03 (EV 91.9m - Net Debt -63.8m = Equity 155.7m / Shares 51.4m; r=10.65% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 70.55 | EPS CAGR: 34.79% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 42.70 | Revenue CAGR: 6.42% | SUE: 0.52 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.21 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.87 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+27.6% | Growth Revenue=+11.4%