CDNA Stock Analysis: CareDx | NASDAQ
Diagnostics & Research | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.501m USD | 12M Return: 38.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 24.3M
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: 88.9%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
CareDx, Inc. is a U.S.-based biotechnology company that develops and commercializes diagnostic and software solutions focused on improving outcomes for organ transplant patients. Its core product portfolio centers on non-invasive surveillance tests, including AlloSure Kidney, AlloMap Heart, AlloSure Heart, and AlloSure Lung, which use donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) analysis and gene expression profiling to monitor graft health across kidney, heart, and lung transplant recipients. The company also offers supporting diagnostic tools such as HeartCare, HistoMap Kidney, and AlloHeme (for leukemia relapse monitoring), along with HLA typing products (QTYPE, Olerup SSP, AlloSeq Tx) and transplant patient management software (Ottr, AlloHome, MedActionPlan).
CareDx operates in the specialized transplant diagnostics niche of the broader biotechnology sector, where its business model combines proprietary laboratory-developed tests with recurring testing revenue tied to long-term post-transplant monitoring. The company maintains a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of next-generation sequencing (NGS) products and technologies. Founded in 1998 and headquartered in Brisbane, California, the company was originally named XDx, Inc. before rebranding to CareDx in March 2014.
- AlloSure Kidney and AlloMap Heart testing volume drives recurring revenue
- Medicare reimbursement coverage decisions impact gross margins and pricing power
- Natera Prospera competition pressures dd-cfDNA market share
| Net Income: -8.19m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 11.74 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 46.08% < 20% (prev 76.48%; Δ -30.40% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 72.9m > Net Income -8.19m |
| Net Debt (-162.7m) to EBITDA (10.7m): -15.21 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.40 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (53.1m) vs 12m ago -3.86% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 68.56% > 18% (prev 67.62%; Δ 0.94% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 91.67% > 50% (prev 70.75%; Δ 20.92% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.46 (Total Current Assets 269.4m - Total Current Liabilities 79.2m) / Total Assets 411.1m |
| B: -1.78 (Retained Earnings -732.5m / Total Assets 411.1m) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -10.1m / Avg Total Assets 450.4m) |
| D: 3.21 (Book Value of Equity 313.5m / Total Liabilities 97.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.45 = B |
| DSRI: 0.52 (Receivables 44.6m/71.5m, Revenue 412.8m/346.4m) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 67.62% / 68.56%) |
| AQI: 1.30 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 412.8m / 346.4m) |
| TATA: -0.20 (NI -8.19m - CFO 72.9m) / TA 411.1m) |
| Beneish M = -3.14 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 28.51 with a total of 639,156 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.33%, over one month by +21.53%, over three months by +77.63% and over the past year by +38.20%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 26.20 (which is 8.1% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
CareDx has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CDNA.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 27.8 | -2.5% |
P/E Forward = 94.3396
P/S = 3.6365
P/B = 4.8078
P/EG = -0.12
Revenue TTM = 412.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -10.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 10.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 17.8m USD (estimated: total debt 24.5m - short term 6.66m)
Short Term Debt = 6.66m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 24.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 24.5m already included)
Net Debt = -162.7m USD (calculated: Debt 24.5m - CCE 187.2m)
Enterprise Value = 1.34b USD (1.50b + Debt 24.5m - CCE 187.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM -10.1m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 20.53x (Enterprise Value 1.34b / FCF TTM 65.2m)
FCF Yield = 4.87% (FCF TTM 65.2m / Enterprise Value 1.34b)
FCF Margin = 15.79% (FCF TTM 65.2m / Revenue TTM 412.8m)
Net Margin = -1.98% (Net Income TTM -8.19m / Revenue TTM 412.8m)
Gross Margin = 68.56% ((Revenue TTM 412.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 129.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 71.43% (prev 66.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.26 (Enterprise Value 1.34b / Total Assets 411.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 24.5m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -7.98m (EBIT -10.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.40 (Total Current Assets 269.4m / Total Current Liabilities 79.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.08 (Debt 24.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 313.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = -15.21 (Net Debt -162.7m / EBITDA 10.7m)
Debt / FCF = -2.50 (Net Debt -162.7m / FCF TTM 65.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 313.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.82% (Net Income -8.19m / Total Assets 411.1m)
RoE = -2.61% (Net Income TTM -8.19m / Total Stockholder Equity 313.8m)
RoCE = -3.04% (EBIT -10.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 313.8m + L.T.Debt 17.8m))
RoIC = -2.51% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -7.98m / Invested Capital 317.9m)
WACC = 8.06% (E(1.50b)/V(1.53b) * Re(8.19%) + D(24.5m)/V(1.53b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.19% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 11.11 | Cagr: 0.34%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈47.2m ; Y1≈54.1m ; Y5≈79.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 26.33 (EV 1.20b - Net Debt -162.7m = Equity 1.36b / Shares 51.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.66 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 88.85 | Revenue CAGR: 12.93% | SUE: 1.55 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.93 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+61.0% | GrowthRev=+20.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.13 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+21.4% | GrowthRev=+5.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +25% (up=1, down=0)