CENX Stock Analysis: Century Aluminum | NASDAQ
Aluminum | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.468m USD | 12M Return: 4.9% | US1564311082 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 70.6M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.1%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Century Aluminum Company (NASDAQ: CENX) is a U.S.-based producer of primary aluminum and alumina, with operations spanning the United States, Iceland, the Netherlands, and Jamaica. Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, the company manufactures both standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products through its portfolio of smelters (aluminum reduction facilities), a carbon anode production plant in Vlissingen, Netherlands, and bauxite mining and alumina refining assets in Jamaica.
The company operates across multiple stages of the aluminum value chain, from raw bauxite extraction and alumina refining to primary smelting, giving it vertical integration uncommon among pure-play aluminum producers. Primary aluminum is produced via the Hall-Héroult electrolytic process, which consumes carbon anodes-explaining the companys ownership of the Vlissingen anode facility. Century Aluminum is classified within the Materials sector (GICS Sub-Industry: Aluminum) and trades as a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $3.66 billion USD.
- LME aluminum prices rally on supply tightness
- Iceland smelter power costs decline with renewable contracts
- Section 232 tariffs sustain domestic aluminum premium
| Net Income: 603.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.38 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 33.45% < 20% (prev 13.95%; Δ 19.50% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 339.4m > Net Income 603.5m |
| Net Debt (158.4m) to EBITDA (715.6m): 0.22 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.75 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (104.8m) vs 12m ago 12.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 19.27% > 18% (prev 10.07%; Δ 9.20% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 110.6% > 50% (prev 124.8%; Δ -14.20% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.15 > 6 (EBIT TTM 625.6m / Interest Expense TTM 44.2m) |
| A: 0.31 (Total Current Assets 1.40b - Total Current Liabilities 509.4m) / Total Assets 2.88b |
| B: -0.36 (Retained Earnings -1.04b / Total Assets 2.88b) |
| C: 0.26 (EBIT TTM 625.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.41b) |
| D: 1.05 (Book Value of Equity 1.40b / Total Liabilities 1.34b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.70 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.75 (Receivables 391.1m/203.5m, Revenue 2.67b/2.43b) |
| GMI: 0.52 (GM 10.07% / 19.27%) |
| AQI: 0.82 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 2.67b / 2.43b) |
| TATA: 0.09 (NI 603.5m - CFO 339.4m) / TA 2.88b) |
| Beneish M = -2.87 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 31.42 with a total of 2,370,739 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.31%, over one month by -19.06%, over three months by -32.23% and over the past year by +4.94%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 29.20 (which is 7.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Century Aluminum has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.60. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CENX.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 60.2 | 91.6% |
P/E Trailing = 6.0501
P/E Forward = 6.4809
P/S = 1.3001
P/B = 2.741
P/EG = 0.0623
Revenue TTM = 2.67b USD
EBIT TTM = 625.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 715.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 479.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 68.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 501.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 21.8m
Net Debt = 158.4m USD (calculated: Debt 501.8m - CCE 343.4m)
Enterprise Value = 3.63b USD (3.47b + Debt 501.8m - CCE 343.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.15 (Ebit TTM 625.6m / Interest Expense TTM 44.2m)
EV/FCF = 23.98x (Enterprise Value 3.63b / FCF TTM 151.2m)
FCF Yield = 4.17% (FCF TTM 151.2m / Enterprise Value 3.63b)
FCF Margin = 5.67% (FCF TTM 151.2m / Revenue TTM 2.67b)
Net Margin = 22.63% (Net Income TTM 603.5m / Revenue TTM 2.67b)
Gross Margin = 19.27% ((Revenue TTM 2.67b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.15b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.30% (prev 18.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.26 (Enterprise Value 3.63b / Total Assets 2.88b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.81% (Interest Expense 44.2m / Debt 501.8m)
Taxrate = 0.64% (3.70m / 581.4m)
NOPAT = 621.6m (EBIT 625.6m * (1 - 0.64%))
Current Ratio = 2.75 (Total Current Assets 1.40b / Total Current Liabilities 509.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 501.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.40b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.22 (Net Debt 158.4m / EBITDA 715.6m)
Debt / FCF = 1.05 (Net Debt 158.4m / FCF TTM 151.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 25.02% (Net Income 603.5m / Total Assets 2.88b)
RoE = 58.57% (Net Income TTM 603.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.03b)
RoCE = 41.42% (EBIT 625.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.03b + L.T.Debt 479.9m))
RoIC = 27.01% (NOPAT 621.6m / Invested Capital 2.30b)
WACC = 11.62% (E(3.47b)/V(3.97b) * Re(12.03%) + D(501.8m)/V(3.97b) * Rd(8.81%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 12.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 61.71 | Cagr: 2.70%
[DCF] Terminal Value 64.90% ; FCFF base≈151.2m ; Y1≈151.8m ; Y5≈160.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 14.65 (EV 1.61b - Net Debt 158.4m = Equity 1.45b / Shares 99.0m; r=11.62% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.10 | Revenue CAGR: 8.90% | SUE: -1.76 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.75 | Chg30d=-1.79% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.91 | Chg30d=-0.21% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+302.9% | GrowthRev=+31.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.40 | Chg30d=-5.62% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+15.0% | GrowthRev=+24.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=3, down=6)