(CERT) Certara - Overview
Sector: Healthcare | Industry: Health Information Services | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 815m USD | Total Return: -47.1% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 20.0M
EPS Trend: -87.3%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 98.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Altman Z'' 0.17 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Certara Inc. provides biosimulation software and technology-driven services designed to optimize drug discovery and clinical development. Its product suite includes the Simcyp mechanistic simulator for pharmacokinetic modeling, the Phoenix platform for non-compartmental analysis, and Pinnacle 21 for clinical data standardization. These tools assist pharmaceutical companies in predicting drug performance and managing regulatory submission workflows across global markets.
The company operates within the Health Care Technology sector, utilizing a software-as-a-service (SaaS) and professional services model to reduce the time and cost of traditional clinical trials. Biosimulation is increasingly integrated into the regulatory process, as it allows researchers to simulate drug effects on virtual patient populations before human testing begins.
Investors should consult ValueRay for further data on Certara’s market positioning.
- Biosimulation software adoption reduces pharmaceutical R&D costs and clinical trial failure rates
- Expansion of tier-one biopharmaceutical software licensing agreements drives recurring revenue growth
- Global drug development regulatory mandates increase demand for standardized data validation tools
- Biopharmaceutical industry funding cycles and R&D budget shifts impact professional services demand
| Net Income: -15.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.71 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 30.12% < 20% (prev 48.69%; Δ -18.57% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 90.7m > Net Income -15.1m |
| Net Debt (150.8m) to EBITDA (108.2m): 1.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.88 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (157.8m) vs 12m ago -2.23% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 58.12% > 18% (prev 0.60%; Δ 5.75k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 27.42% > 50% (prev 25.27%; Δ 2.15% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.04 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 108.2m / Interest Expense TTM 49.1m) |
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 270.6m - Total Current Liabilities 144.1m) / Total Assets 1.50b |
| B: -0.09 (Retained Earnings -138.6m / Total Assets 1.50b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 51.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.53b) |
| D: -0.29 (Book Value of Equity -138.9m / Total Liabilities 483.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.17 = B |
| DSRI: 0.86 (Receivables 96.1m/105.2m, Revenue 419.7m/394.5m) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 58.12% / 60.26%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.81 / AQ_t-1 0.80) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 419.7m / 394.5m) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI -15.1m - CFO 90.7m) / TA 1.50b) |
| Beneish M = -3.13 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of June 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.82 with a total of 4,005,779 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +12.57%,
over one month by -5.06%,
over three months by -17.45% and
over the past year by -47.09%.
Certara has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.82. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CERT.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 7.6 | 30.9% |
P/E Forward = 12.6743
P/S = 1.942
P/B = 0.8023
Revenue TTM = 419.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 51.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 108.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 289.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.96m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 300.3m USD (corrected: LT Debt 289.5m + ST Debt 2.96m) + Leases 7.79m
Net Debt = 150.8m USD (calculated: Debt 300.3m - CCE 149.5m)
Enterprise Value = 965.9m USD (815.2m + Debt 300.3m - CCE 149.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.04 (Ebit TTM 51.2m / Interest Expense TTM 49.1m)
EV/FCF = 10.87x (Enterprise Value 965.9m / FCF TTM 88.9m)
FCF Yield = 9.20% (FCF TTM 88.9m / Enterprise Value 965.9m)
FCF Margin = 21.17% (FCF TTM 88.9m / Revenue TTM 419.7m)
Net Margin = -3.60% (Net Income TTM -15.1m / Revenue TTM 419.7m)
Gross Margin = 58.12% ((Revenue TTM 419.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 175.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 47.43% (prev 62.21%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.64 (Enterprise Value 965.9m / Total Assets 1.50b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 16.36% (Interest Expense 49.1m / Debt 300.3m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 40.4m (EBIT 51.2m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.88 (Total Current Assets 270.6m / Total Current Liabilities 144.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.30 (Debt 300.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.02b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.39 (Net Debt 150.8m / EBITDA 108.2m)
Debt / FCF = 1.70 (Net Debt 150.8m / FCF TTM 88.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.05b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.99% (Net Income -15.1m / Total Assets 1.50b)
RoE = -1.27% (Net Income TTM -15.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.19b)
RoCE = 3.45% (EBIT 51.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.19b + L.T.Debt 289.5m))
RoIC = 3.00% (NOPAT 40.4m / Invested Capital 1.35b)
WACC = 9.92% (E(815.2m)/V(1.12b) * Re(8.81%) + D(300.3m)/V(1.12b) * Rd(16.36%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 6.67 | Cagr: -0.47%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.46% ; FCFF base≈85.9m ; Y1≈92.8m ; Y5≈114.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 7.87 (EV 1.37b - Net Debt 150.8m = Equity 1.22b / Shares 155.6m; r=9.92% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 9.29% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -87.31 | EPS CAGR: -27.37% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 98.09 | Revenue CAGR: 7.93% | SUE: 0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.09 | Chg30d=-13.88% | Revisions=-71% | Analysts=9
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.10 | Chg30d=-12.86% | Revisions=-71% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.38 | Chg30d=-14.99% | Revisions=-75% | GrowthEPS=-13.0% | GrowthRev=-4.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.41 | Chg30d=-17.11% | Revisions=-75% | GrowthEPS=+8.0% | GrowthRev=+1.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -75%