(CERT) Certara - Overview
Stock: Biosimulation, Software, Services, Platforms, Data, Tools
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 50.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.92% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.80 |
| Alpha | -63.37 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.911 |
| Beta Downside | 0.364 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 70.75% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.39 |
Description: CERT Certara January 15, 2026
Certara, Inc. (NASDAQ: CERT) delivers a suite of technology-enabled services and software that enable biosimulation across the drug-development lifecycle-from early discovery through regulatory submission and market access. Its flagship platforms include Simcyp (physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling), Phoenix WinNonlin (non-compartmental and mixed-effects analysis), and a range of Chemaxon cheminformatics tools, all offered via cloud-based workspaces such as Phoenix Hosted and Pinnacle 21 for data standardization and submission automation.
Recent financials show FY 2023 revenue of roughly $260 million, up about 12 % year-over-year, driven by expanding subscription contracts and higher uptake of model-informed drug development (MIDD) solutions after the FDA’s 2022 guidance that encourages PBPK modeling for dose selection. The health-care-technology sector is benefitting from a projected 9 % CAGR through 2028 as pharmaceutical firms seek to reduce R&D timelines and de-risk clinical trials, positioning Certara’s recurring-revenue model for strong cash-flow generation.
For a deeper, data-driven look at Certara’s valuation dynamics, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful for independent scenario analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 10.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 35.56% < 20% (prev 61.13%; Δ -25.57% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 116.9m > Net Income 10.9m |
| Net Debt (129.8m) to EBITDA (106.6m): 1.22 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.09 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (160.6m) vs 12m ago -0.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 61.44% > 18% (prev 0.60%; Δ 6085 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 26.99% > 50% (prev 24.16%; Δ 2.83% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.65 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 106.6m / Interest Expense TTM 19.6m) |
Altman Z'' 0.24
| A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 283.3m - Total Current Liabilities 135.5m) / Total Assets 1.54b |
| B: -0.08 (Retained Earnings -124.0m / Total Assets 1.54b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 32.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.54b) |
| D: -0.26 (Book Value of Equity -120.4m / Total Liabilities 471.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.24 = B |
Beneish M -3.15
| DSRI: 0.83 (Receivables 98.5m/106.3m, Revenue 415.6m/372.8m) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 61.44% / 59.68%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.81 / AQ_t-1 0.76) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 415.6m / 372.8m) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 10.9m - CFO 116.9m) / TA 1.54b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of CERT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -17.75%, over one month by -24.45%, over three months by -35.85% and over the past year by -46.88%.
Is CERT a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CERT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 12.4 | 71.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 12.4 | 71.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 5.4 | -25% |
CERT Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 17.1821
P/S = 3.3691
P/B = 1.3148
Revenue TTM = 415.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 32.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 106.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 290.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.00m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 302.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 129.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.53b USD (1.40b + Debt 302.5m - CCE 172.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.65 (Ebit TTM 32.3m / Interest Expense TTM 19.6m)
EV/FCF = 14.55x (Enterprise Value 1.53b / FCF TTM 105.1m)
FCF Yield = 6.87% (FCF TTM 105.1m / Enterprise Value 1.53b)
FCF Margin = 25.29% (FCF TTM 105.1m / Revenue TTM 415.6m)
Net Margin = 2.62% (Net Income TTM 10.9m / Revenue TTM 415.6m)
Gross Margin = 61.44% ((Revenue TTM 415.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 160.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 62.03% (prev 61.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.00 (Enterprise Value 1.53b / Total Assets 1.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.66% (Interest Expense 5.01m / Debt 302.5m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 25.5m (EBIT 32.3m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 2.09 (Total Current Assets 283.3m / Total Current Liabilities 135.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.28 (Debt 302.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.06b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.22 (Net Debt 129.8m / EBITDA 106.6m)
Debt / FCF = 1.23 (Net Debt 129.8m / FCF TTM 105.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.07b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.71% (Net Income 10.9m / Total Assets 1.54b)
RoE = 1.02% (Net Income TTM 10.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.07b)
RoCE = 2.38% (EBIT 32.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.07b + L.T.Debt 290.5m))
RoIC = 1.87% (NOPAT 25.5m / Invested Capital 1.36b)
WACC = 7.86% (E(1.40b)/V(1.70b) * Re(9.27%) + D(302.5m)/V(1.70b) * Rd(1.66%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.37%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.77% ; FCFF base≈84.0m ; Y1≈91.2m ; Y5≈113.7m
Fair Price DCF = 11.92 (EV 2.03b - Net Debt 129.8m = Equity 1.90b / Shares 159.3m; r=7.86% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 9.69% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -45.53 | EPS CAGR: -38.96% | SUE: -2.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.02 | Revenue CAGR: 9.15% | SUE: 0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=-0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=10
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.55 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+21.7% | Growth Revenue=+6.3%