Overview Dividends

(CFLT) Confluent - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US20717M1036

Cloud, Platform, Connectors, Flink, Warpstream, Governance

Application Software
Market Cap in USD: 10,640m

IPO / Inception: 2021-06-24
Return 12m vs S&P 500: -13.9%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 0.00%
EPS Trend: 58.3%

Last SUE: 0.66
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 27.53%
Rev. Trend: 98.9%

Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 1

Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	74.0%
Value at Risk 5%th	85.9%
Relative Tail Risk	-29.39%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.36
Alpha	-21.60
CAGR/Max DD	0.23

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.510
Beta	1.561
Beta Downside	1.820

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	59.49%
Mean DD	30.18%
Median DD	29.59%

Description: CFLT Confluent January 07, 2026

Confluent, Inc. (NASDAQ:CFLT) delivers a cloud-native data-streaming platform that enables enterprises to build real-time applications across on-premises and public-cloud environments. Its product suite includes Confluent Cloud (a managed SaaS), Confluent Platform (self-managed), a library of pre-built connectors, Apache Flink-based stream processing, WarpStream (a BYOC managed service), and a governance layer that enforces risk- and compliance-related controls on streaming data.

The company monetizes through subscription fees (annual recurring revenue, ARR) and professional services. In FY 2024 Confluent reported ARR of roughly $1.2 billion, representing a 45 % YoY growth rate, while its net dollar retention exceeded 130 %, indicating strong upsell and cross-sell momentum among existing customers.

Confluent’s addressable market is driven by the broader shift toward event-driven architectures and the rise of real-time analytics in sectors such as banking, e-commerce, and telecom. Industry analysts estimate the global streaming data market to expand at a CAGR of 30 % through 2030, providing a secular tailwind for the company.

Key competitive pressures stem from large cloud providers (AWS Kinesis, Azure Event Hubs, Google Pub/Sub) and open-source alternatives, making customer acquisition cost (CAC) and product differentiation critical levers for sustainable growth.

Given the high growth trajectory and the strategic importance of real-time data pipelines, investors should monitor metrics such as churn, CAC payback period, and the pace of adoption of Confluent’s governance module. For a deeper dive into Confluent’s valuation metrics, see the ValueRay analysis.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0

Net Income (-304.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 66.8m TTM)

FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.81pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 168.6% (prev 189.1%; Δ -20.53pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.02 (>3.0%) and CFO 57.4m > Net Income -304.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0)

Current Ratio 4.01 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (346.2m) change vs 12m ago 6.75% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 74.14% (prev 73.03%; Δ 1.11pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 40.59% (prev 35.11%; Δ 5.48pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio -368.4 (EBITDA TTM -340.3m / Interest Expense TTM 1.00m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' -0.44

(A) 0.65 = (Total Current Assets 2.50b - Total Current Liabilities 622.6m) / Total Assets 2.88b

(B) -0.77 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -2.21b / Total Assets 2.88b

(D) -1.25 = Book Value of Equity -2.20b / Total Liabilities 1.76b

Total Rating: -0.44 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 42.91

1. Piotroski 2.0pt

2. FCF Yield 0.39%

3. FCF Margin 3.41%

4. Debt/Equity 0.99

5. Debt/Ebitda -2.37

6. ROIC - WACC (= -28.33)%

7. RoE -29.17%

8. Rev. Trend 98.92%

9. EPS Trend 58.28%

What is the price of CFLT shares?

As of January 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.18 with a total of 15,195,969 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.17%, over one month by +1.04%, over three months by +41.96% and over the past year by +1.17%.

Is CFLT a buy, sell or hold?

Confluent has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.31. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CFLT.

Strong Buy: 20
Buy: 8
Hold: 7
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CFLT price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	30.9	2.4%
Analysts Target Price	30.9	2.4%
ValueRay Target Price	31.9	5.7%

CFLT Fundamental Data Overview January 01, 2026

Market Cap USD = 10.64b (10.64b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 61.7284
P/S = 9.5589
P/B = 9.5093
P/EG = 2.1225
Beta = 0.986
Revenue TTM = 1.11b USD
EBIT TTM = -368.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -340.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.10b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.39m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 807.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 9.76b USD (10.64b + Debt 1.11b - CCE 1.99b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -368.4 (Ebit TTM -368.4m / Interest Expense TTM 1.00m)
FCF Yield = 0.39% (FCF TTM 37.9m / Enterprise Value 9.76b)
FCF Margin = 3.41% (FCF TTM 37.9m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Net Margin = -27.32% (Net Income TTM -304.1m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Gross Margin = 74.14% ((Revenue TTM 1.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 287.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.22% (prev 73.73%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.39 (Enterprise Value 9.76b / Total Assets 2.88b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.09% (Interest Expense 1.00m / Debt 1.11b)
Taxrate = -2.39% (negative due to tax credits) (1.55m / -65.0m)
NOPAT = -377.2m (EBIT -368.4m * (1 - -2.39%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 4.01 (Total Current Assets 2.50b / Total Current Liabilities 622.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.99 (Debt 1.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.37 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 807.9m / EBITDA -340.3m)
Debt / FCF = 21.31 (Net Debt 807.9m / FCF TTM 37.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -10.57% (Net Income -304.1m / Total Assets 2.88b)
RoE = -29.17% (Net Income TTM -304.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.04b)
RoCE = -17.23% (EBIT -368.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.04b + L.T.Debt 1.10b))
RoIC = -17.66% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -377.2m / Invested Capital 2.14b)
WACC = 10.67% (E(10.64b)/V(11.75b) * Re(11.77%) + D(1.11b)/V(11.75b) * Rd(0.09%) * (1-Tc(-0.02)))
Discount Rate = 11.77% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.83%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 55.71% ; FCFE base≈37.9m ; Y1≈24.9m ; Y5≈11.4m
Fair Price DCF = 0.45 (DCF Value 137.6m / Shares Outstanding 303.2m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 58.28 | EPS CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.66 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.92 | Revenue CAGR: 27.53% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.10 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=27
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.48 | Chg30d=-0.000 | Revisions Net=+18 | Growth EPS=+20.7% | Growth Revenue=+16.6%

Additional Sources for CFLT Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle