Overview Dividends

(CFLT) Confluent - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US20717M1036

Cloud Platform, Self-Managed Platform, Connectors, Flink Service, Governance Suite

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3y CAGR): -15.74%
EPS Trend (3y Corr): 7.7%

Last SUE: 0.36σ
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Revenue Growth (3y CAGR): 23.07%
Revenue Trend (3y Corr): 99.7%

Last SUE: 4.00σ
Qual. Beats: 1

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	66.6%
Value at Risk 5%th	86.8%
Relative Tail Risk	-20.75%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.01
Alpha	-37.73

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.371
Beta	1.662
Beta Downside	1.625

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	59.49%
Mean DD	29.36%
Median DD	28.90%

Description: CFLT Confluent November 04, 2025

Confluent Inc. (NASDAQ:CFLT) delivers a cloud-native data-streaming platform that enables enterprises to build, run, and manage real-time data pipelines. Its product suite includes Confluent Cloud (a fully managed SaaS), Confluent Platform (self-hosted enterprise software), a library of pre-built connectors, Apache Flink-based stream processing, WarpStream (a “bring-your-own-cloud” managed service), and a dedicated stream-governance layer for compliance and risk controls. The company also monetizes professional services, training, and certification programs, targeting a breadth of verticals such as financial services, retail, manufacturing, telecom, gaming, insurance, technology, and the public sector.

Key operational metrics (FY 2023) show annual recurring revenue (ARR) of roughly $1.2 billion, growing at ~45 % year-over-year, while the gross margin sits near 78 %, reflecting the high-margin SaaS nature of the business. The global streaming-data market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 30 % through 2028, driven by accelerating cloud migration, the rise of event-driven architectures, and regulatory pressure for real-time risk monitoring-factors that directly bolster Confluent’s addressable opportunity. Competitive pressure comes from broader cloud providers (e.g., AWS Kinesis, Azure Event Hubs) and newer data-lake-as-a-service players, making customer lock-in through connectors and governance capabilities a critical moat.

For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find ValueRay’s data-driven valuation models useful.

CFLT Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	7,927m
Sub-Industry	Application Software
IPO / Inception	2021-06-24
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-29.6%
Analyst Rating	4.31 of 5

CFLT Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

CFLT Growth Ratios

Metric	Value
CAGR 3y	-0.80%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	-0.01
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	-0.03
Current Volume	5665.6k
Average Volume	6108.2k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0

Net Income (-304.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 66.8m TTM)

FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.52pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 168.6% (prev 189.1%; Δ -20.53pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.02 (>3.0%) and CFO 57.4m > Net Income -304.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0)

Current Ratio 4.01 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (346.2m) change vs 12m ago 6.75% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 74.14% (prev 73.03%; Δ 1.11pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 40.59% (prev 35.11%; Δ 5.48pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio -96.93 (EBITDA TTM -340.3m / Interest Expense TTM 3.80m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' -0.44

(A) 0.65 = (Total Current Assets 2.50b - Total Current Liabilities 622.6m) / Total Assets 2.88b

(B) -0.77 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -2.21b / Total Assets 2.88b

(D) -1.25 = Book Value of Equity -2.20b / Total Liabilities 1.76b

Total Rating: -0.44 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 40.52

1. Piotroski 2.0pt = -3.0

2. FCF Yield 0.54% = 0.27

3. FCF Margin 3.41% = 0.85

4. Debt/Equity 0.99 = 2.03

5. Debt/Ebitda -2.37 = -2.50

6. ROIC - WACC (= -28.35)% = -12.50

7. RoE -29.17% = -2.50

8. Rev. Trend 99.69% = 7.48

9. EPS Trend 7.70% = 0.39

What is the price of CFLT shares?

As of November 21, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 22.63 with a total of 5,665,616 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.10%, over one month by +0.31%, over three months by +30.21% and over the past year by -20.01%.

Is CFLT a buy, sell or hold?

Confluent has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.31. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CFLT.

Strong Buy: 20
Buy: 8
Hold: 7
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CFLT price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	27.9	23.2%
Analysts Target Price	27.9	23.2%
ValueRay Target Price	24.1	6.6%

CFLT Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025

Market Cap USD = 7.93b (7.93b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 46.2963
P/S = 7.1212
P/B = 7.0843
P/EG = 1.5963
Beta = 0.983
Revenue TTM = 1.11b USD
EBIT TTM = -368.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -340.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.10b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.39m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 807.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.04b USD (7.93b + Debt 1.11b - CCE 1.99b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -96.93 (Ebit TTM -368.4m / Interest Expense TTM 3.80m)
FCF Yield = 0.54% (FCF TTM 37.9m / Enterprise Value 7.04b)
FCF Margin = 3.41% (FCF TTM 37.9m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Net Margin = -27.32% (Net Income TTM -304.1m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Gross Margin = 74.14% ((Revenue TTM 1.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 287.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.22% (prev 73.73%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.45 (Enterprise Value 7.04b / Total Assets 2.88b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.34% (Interest Expense 3.80m / Debt 1.11b)
Taxrate = -2.39% (negative due to tax credits) (1.55m / -65.0m)
NOPAT = -377.2m (EBIT -368.4m * (1 - -2.39%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 4.01 (Total Current Assets 2.50b / Total Current Liabilities 622.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.99 (Debt 1.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.37 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 807.9m / EBITDA -340.3m)
Debt / FCF = 21.31 (Net Debt 807.9m / FCF TTM 37.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -10.57% (Net Income -304.1m / Total Assets 2.88b)
RoE = -29.17% (Net Income TTM -304.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.04b)
RoCE = -17.23% (EBIT -368.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.04b + L.T.Debt 1.10b))
RoIC = -17.66% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -377.2m / Invested Capital 2.14b)
WACC = 10.70% (E(7.93b)/V(9.03b) * Re(12.14%) + D(1.11b)/V(9.03b) * Rd(0.34%) * (1-Tc(-0.02)))
Discount Rate = 12.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.83%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 54.47% ; FCFE base≈37.9m ; Y1≈24.9m ; Y5≈11.4m
Fair Price DCF = 0.44 (DCF Value 132.8m / Shares Outstanding 298.7m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 7.70 | EPS CAGR: -15.74% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.69 | Revenue CAGR: 23.07% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1

Additional Sources for CFLT Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle