(CFLT) Confluent - Ratings and Ratios
Cloud Platform, Self-Managed Platform, Connectors, Flink Service, Governance Suite
CFLT EPS (Earnings per Share)
CFLT Revenue
Description: CFLT Confluent November 04, 2025
Confluent Inc. (NASDAQ:CFLT) delivers a cloud-native data-streaming platform that enables enterprises to build, run, and manage real-time data pipelines. Its product suite includes Confluent Cloud (a fully managed SaaS), Confluent Platform (self-hosted enterprise software), a library of pre-built connectors, Apache Flink-based stream processing, WarpStream (a “bring-your-own-cloud” managed service), and a dedicated stream-governance layer for compliance and risk controls. The company also monetizes professional services, training, and certification programs, targeting a breadth of verticals such as financial services, retail, manufacturing, telecom, gaming, insurance, technology, and the public sector.
Key operational metrics (FY 2023) show annual recurring revenue (ARR) of roughly $1.2 billion, growing at ~45 % year-over-year, while the gross margin sits near 78 %, reflecting the high-margin SaaS nature of the business. The global streaming-data market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 30 % through 2028, driven by accelerating cloud migration, the rise of event-driven architectures, and regulatory pressure for real-time risk monitoring-factors that directly bolster Confluent’s addressable opportunity. Competitive pressure comes from broader cloud providers (e.g., AWS Kinesis, Azure Event Hubs) and newer data-lake-as-a-service players, making customer lock-in through connectors and governance capabilities a critical moat.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find ValueRay’s data-driven valuation models useful.
CFLT Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 8,228m |
| Sub-Industry | Application Software |
| IPO / Inception | 2021-06-24 |
CFLT Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | -30.6% |
| Fundamental | 43.9% |
| Dividend Rating | - |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -28.3% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.31 of 5 |
CFLT Dividends
Currently no dividends paidCFLT Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 92.1% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | -76.5% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | -52.1% |
| CAGR 5y | 5.80% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) | 0.10 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) | 0.20 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | 0.23 |
| Alpha | -32.55 |
| Beta | 0.964 |
| Volatility | 69.08% |
| Current Volume | 5809.6k |
| Average Volume 20d | 6860.4k |
| Stop Loss | 21.4 (-5.1%) |
| Signal | 0.01 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income (-304.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 66.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.88pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 168.6% (prev 189.1%; Δ -20.53pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 (>3.0%) and CFO 57.4m > Net Income -304.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 4.01 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (346.2m) change vs 12m ago 6.75% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 74.14% (prev 73.03%; Δ 1.11pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 40.59% (prev 35.11%; Δ 5.48pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -96.93 (EBITDA TTM -340.3m / Interest Expense TTM 3.80m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.44
| (A) 0.65 = (Total Current Assets 2.50b - Total Current Liabilities 622.6m) / Total Assets 2.88b |
| (B) -0.77 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -2.21b / Total Assets 2.88b |
| (C) -0.13 = EBIT TTM -368.4m / Avg Total Assets 2.74b |
| (D) -1.25 = Book Value of Equity -2.20b / Total Liabilities 1.76b |
| Total Rating: -0.44 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 43.92
| 1. Piotroski 2.0pt = -3.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.66% = 0.33 |
| 3. FCF Margin 4.32% = 1.08 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.99 = 2.03 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -2.37 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -26.35)% = -12.50 |
| 7. RoE -29.17% = -2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 99.69% = 7.48 |
| 9. EPS Trend 70.08% = 3.50 |
What is the price of CFLT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.69%, over one month by +6.02%, over three months by +31.43% and over the past year by -14.72%.
Is Confluent a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of CFLT is around 21.35 USD . This means that CFLT is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -5.28%.
Is CFLT a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 20
- Buy: 8
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CFLT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 27.9 | 23.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 27.9 | 23.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 23.8 | 5.6% |
CFLT Fundamental Data Overview November 01, 2025
P/E Forward = 42.5532
P/S = 7.3915
P/B = 6.6507
P/EG = 0.3402
Beta = 0.964
Revenue TTM = 1.11b USD
EBIT TTM = -368.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -340.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.09b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 9.39m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 807.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.34b USD (8.23b + Debt 1.11b - CCE 1.99b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -96.93 (Ebit TTM -368.4m / Interest Expense TTM 3.80m)
FCF Yield = 0.66% (FCF TTM 48.1m / Enterprise Value 7.34b)
FCF Margin = 4.32% (FCF TTM 48.1m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Net Margin = -27.32% (Net Income TTM -304.1m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Gross Margin = 74.14% ((Revenue TTM 1.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 287.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.22% (prev 73.73%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.55 (Enterprise Value 7.34b / Total Assets 2.88b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.34% (Interest Expense 3.80m / Debt 1.11b)
Taxrate = -2.39% (negative due to tax credits) (1.55m / -65.0m)
NOPAT = -377.2m (EBIT -368.4m * (1 - -2.39%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 4.01 (Total Current Assets 2.50b / Total Current Liabilities 622.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.99 (Debt 1.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.37 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 807.9m / EBITDA -340.3m)
Debt / FCF = 16.79 (Net Debt 807.9m / FCF TTM 48.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -10.57% (Net Income -304.1m / Total Assets 2.88b)
RoE = -29.17% (Net Income TTM -304.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.04b)
RoCE = -17.26% (EBIT -368.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.04b + L.T.Debt 1.09b))
RoIC = -17.88% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -377.2m / Invested Capital 2.11b)
WACC = 8.48% (E(8.23b)/V(9.33b) * Re(9.57%) + D(1.11b)/V(9.33b) * Rd(0.34%) * (1-Tc(-0.02)))
Discount Rate = 9.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.83%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 63.88% ; FCFE base≈48.1m ; Y1≈31.6m ; Y5≈14.5m
Fair Price DCF = 0.75 (DCF Value 224.6m / Shares Outstanding 298.7m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 70.08 | EPS CAGR: 24.48% | SUE: 1.99 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.69 | Revenue CAGR: 23.07% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Additional Sources for CFLT Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle