CG Stock Analysis: Carlyle | NASDAQ
Asset Management | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 15.159m USD | 12M Return: -17.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 158M
EPS Trend: 58.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 75.2%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) is a global investment firm that specializes in direct and fund-of-fund investments, spanning a wide range of strategies including leveraged buyouts, privatizations, distressed debt, venture and growth capital, mezzanine financing, and structured credit. The firm operates through four core segments: Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions, deploying capital across sectors such as industrial, aerospace and defense, healthcare, energy, financial services, technology, real estate, consumer and retail, and telecommunications. Its investment activities frequently involve management-led buyouts, recapitalizations, and turnaround situations. As one of the worlds largest private equity firms by assets under management, Carlyle serves institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, and high-net-worth individuals, generating revenue primarily through management fees and performance-related carried interest on its investment funds.
- Fee Related Earnings margin expands across private equity and credit segments
- Distributable earnings grow as exit activity and realizations accelerate
- Share buyback program and dividend support shareholder returns
| Net Income: 546.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.16 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 88.29% < 20% (prev 60.04%; Δ 28.24% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -807.0m > Net Income 546.5m |
| Net Debt (11.9b) to EBITDA (1.01b): 11.71 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 10.83 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (359.2m) vs 12m ago -1.95% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 73.08% > 18% (prev 83.78%; Δ -10.70% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 14.79% > 50% (prev 17.19%; Δ -2.40% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.84 > 6 (EBIT TTM 886.1m / Interest Expense TTM 482.8m) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 3.88b - Total Current Liabilities 358.2m) / Total Assets 29.8b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 1.17b / Total Assets 29.8b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 886.1m / Avg Total Assets 27.0b) |
| D: 0.24 (Book Value of Equity 5.40b / Total Liabilities 22.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.38 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.15 (Receivables 1.13b/1.02b, Revenue 3.99b/4.14b) |
| GMI: 1.15 (GM 83.78% / 73.08%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.85 / AQ_t-1 0.86) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 3.99b / 4.14b) |
| TATA: 0.05 (NI 546.5m - CFO -807.0m) / TA 29.8b) |
| Beneish M = -2.80 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 42.11 with a total of 3,748,701 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.09%, over one month by -6.14%, over three months by -10.04% and over the past year by -17.75%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 39.60 (which is 6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Carlyle has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.76. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CG.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 59.9 | 42.2% |
P/E Trailing = 28.8425
P/E Forward = 9.6618
P/S = 4.6659
P/B = 2.8053
P/EG = 0.8547
Revenue TTM = 3.99b USD
EBIT TTM = 886.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.01b USD
Long Term Debt = 14.2b USD (estimated: total debt 14.6b - short term 387.3m)
Short Term Debt = 387.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.6b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 11.9b USD (calculated: Debt 14.6b - CCE 2.75b)
Enterprise Value = 27.0b USD (15.2b + Debt 14.6b - CCE 2.75b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.84 (Ebit TTM 886.1m / Interest Expense TTM 482.8m)
EV/FCF = -29.44x (Enterprise Value 27.0b / FCF TTM -917.8m)
FCF Yield = -3.40% (FCF TTM -917.8m / Enterprise Value 27.0b)
FCF Margin = -23.01% (FCF TTM -917.8m / Revenue TTM 3.99b)
Net Margin = 13.70% (Net Income TTM 546.5m / Revenue TTM 3.99b)
Gross Margin = 73.08% ((Revenue TTM 3.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.07b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 54.55%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.91 (Enterprise Value 27.0b / Total Assets 29.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.30% (Interest Expense 482.8m / Debt 14.6b)
Taxrate = 20.39% (165.0m / 809.2m)
NOPAT = 705.4m (EBIT 886.1m * (1 - 20.39%))
Current Ratio = 10.83 (Total Current Assets 3.88b / Total Current Liabilities 358.2m)
Debt / Equity = 2.71 (Debt 14.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.40b)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.71 (Net Debt 11.9b / EBITDA 1.01b)
Debt / FCF = -12.93 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 11.9b / FCF TTM -917.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.66b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.03% (Net Income 546.5m / Total Assets 29.8b)
RoE = 9.65% (Net Income TTM 546.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.66b)
RoCE = 4.45% (EBIT 886.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.66b + L.T.Debt 14.2b))
RoIC = 2.38% (NOPAT 705.4m / Invested Capital 29.7b)
WACC = 8.04% (E(15.2b)/V(29.8b) * Re(13.26%) + D(14.6b)/V(29.8b) * Rd(3.30%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 13.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 20.0 | Cagr: -0.20%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -917.8m)
EPS Correlation: 58.07 | EPS CAGR: 4.34% | SUE: -0.37 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 75.22 | Revenue CAGR: 31.52% | SUE: -1.08 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.11 | Chg30d=+0.23% | Revisions=-71% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.03 | Chg30d=-1.42% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=+0.2% | GrowthRev=-2.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.22 | Chg30d=-0.09% | Revisions=-33% | GrowthEPS=+29.5% | GrowthRev=+33.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -71%