CG Stock Analysis: Carlyle | NASDAQ

Private Equity, Real Assets, Credit Investing, Hedge Funds

Total Rating 19

Safety 40

Buy Signal -1.40

Asset Management
Industry Rotation: +0.7

Market Cap: 13.8B
Avg Turnover: 121M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility40.5%

VaR 5^th Pctl7.12%

VaR vs Median6.70%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.80

Rel. Str. IBD10.7

Rel. Str. Peer Group13.2 pctl

Character TTM

Beta1.908

Beta Downside2.010

Hurst Exponent0.466

Choppyness41.5%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD46.98%

CAGR/Max DD0.33

CAGR/Mean DD1.01

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 6.59%
EPS Trend: 87.6%

Last SUE: 2.33
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 34.17%
Rev. Trend: 79.4%

Last SUE: 0.34
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +1.3% 17

Feb -6.3% 34

Mar -0.1% 7

Apr +0.6% 15

May +0.1% 5

Jun +1.8% 5

Jul +10.1% 66

Aug -5.5% 34

Sep -4.0% 11

Oct +0.0% 2

Nov +3.4% 27

Dec +0.9% 13

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: CG Carlyle

Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) is a publicly traded alternative asset manager that invests across direct and fund-of-fund vehicles, operating through four core segments: Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. The firm deploys capital via leveraged buyouts, privatizations, minority equity stakes, structured credit, mezzanine and leveraged finance, venture and growth capital, and turnaround investments. As a large-cap asset manager, Carlyle generates revenue primarily through management fees on assets under management and performance-based carried interest, sourcing capital from institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, and high-net-worth individuals.

The firms investment footprint spans a broad set of industries, including aerospace and defense, healthcare, energy and power, financial services, technology, software, semiconductors, telecommunications, media, transportation, logistics, and real estate. Within industrials, it targets manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, and forestry/paper products. In consumer and retail, focus areas include food and beverage, restaurants, consumer products, personal care, and education, while aerospace, defense, and government services investments center on defense electronics, government contracting, IT services, and supply chain/distribution companies.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Fee-related earnings growth accelerates from private credit expansion
Private equity exit pace drives realized carried interest distributions
Heightened regulatory scrutiny pressures private fund fee structures

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.0

Net Income: 363.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.57 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -56.09% < 20% (prev 58.74%; Δ -114.8% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.07 > 3% & CFO -1.87b > Net Income 363.9m
Net Debt (12.2b) to EBITDA (956.8m): 12.76 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.61 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (367.3m) vs 12m ago 0.08% < -2%
Gross Margin: 70.67% > 18% (prev 84.35%; Δ -13.68% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 14.88% > 50% (prev 17.54%; Δ -2.66% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.35 > 6 (EBIT TTM 757.5m / Interest Expense TTM 322.2m)

Altman Z'' 0.14

A: -0.08 (Total Current Assets 3.51b - Total Current Liabilities 5.73b) / Total Assets 28.2b
B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 873.8m / Total Assets 28.2b)
C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 757.5m / Avg Total Assets 26.6b)
D: 0.34 (Book Value of Equity 7.21b / Total Liabilities 21.0b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.14 = B

Beneish M -2.46

DSRI: 1.57 (Receivables 1.47b/1.04b, Revenue 3.96b/4.40b)
GMI: 1.19 (GM 84.35% / 70.67%)
AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.86 / AQ_t-1 0.87)
SGI: 0.90 (Revenue 3.96b / 4.40b)
TATA: 0.08 (NI 363.9m - CFO -1.87b) / TA 28.2b)
Beneish M = -2.46 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB

What is the price of CG shares?

As of October 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 40.57 with a total of 2,716,328 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.49%, over one month by +2.24%, over three months by -8.59% and over the past year by -27.58%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 38.00 (which is 6.3% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).

Is CG a buy, sell or hold?

Carlyle has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CG.

StrongBuy: 6
Buy: 4
Hold: 9
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CG price?

Analysts Target Price	51.9	27.9%

Carlyle (CG) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 28 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 13.8b (13.8b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 39.9485
P/E Forward = 7.3801
P/S = 4.9372
P/B = 2.6245
P/EG = 0.6299
Revenue TTM = 3.96b USD
EBIT TTM = 757.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 956.8m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 387.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 14.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 12.2b USD (calculated: Debt 14.3b - CCE 2.04b)
Enterprise Value = 26.0b USD (13.8b + Debt 14.3b - CCE 2.04b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.35 (Ebit TTM 757.5m / Interest Expense TTM 322.2m)
EV/FCF = -13.03x (Enterprise Value 26.0b / FCF TTM -2.00b)
FCF Yield = -7.68% (FCF TTM -2.00b / Enterprise Value 26.0b)
FCF Margin = -50.41% (FCF TTM -2.00b / Revenue TTM 3.96b)
Net Margin = 9.18% (Net Income TTM 363.9m / Revenue TTM 3.96b)
Gross Margin = 70.67% ((Revenue TTM 3.96b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.16b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.01% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 26.0b / Total Assets 28.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.26% (Interest Expense 322.2m / Debt 14.3b)
Taxrate = 15.80% (101.5m / 642.4m)
NOPAT = 637.8m (EBIT 757.5m * (1 - 15.80%))
Current Ratio = 0.61 (Total Current Assets 3.51b / Total Current Liabilities 5.73b)
Debt / Equity = 1.98 (Debt 14.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.21b)
Debt / EBITDA = 12.76 (Net Debt 12.2b / EBITDA 956.8m)
Debt / FCF = -6.11 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 12.2b / FCF TTM -2.00b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.37% (Net Income 363.9m / Total Assets 28.2b)
RoE = 6.07% (Net Income TTM 363.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 6.00b)
RoCE = 3.37% (EBIT 757.5m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 28.2b - Current Liab 5.73b))
RoIC = 2.86% (NOPAT 637.8m / Invested Capital 22.3b)
WACC = 6.89% (E(13.8b)/V(28.1b) * Re(12.04%) + D(14.3b)/V(28.1b) * Rd(2.26%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 12.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -4.84 | Cagr: -0.25%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -2.00b)
EPS Correlation: 87.59 | EPS CAGR: 6.59% | SUE: 2.33 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 79.43 | Revenue CAGR: 34.17% | SUE: 0.34 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.98 | Chg30d=-8.52% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.52 | Chg30d=-3.46% | Revisions=-73% | GrowthEPS=-12.3% | GrowthRev=-7.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.97 | Chg30d=-2.78% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+41.0% | GrowthRev=+30.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -70% (up=2, down=18)