CGBD Stock Analysis: Carlyle Secured Lending | NASDAQ
Asset Management | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 757m USD | 12M Return: -14% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 5.36M
EPS Trend: -88.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 48.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) is a Business Development Company (BDC) that provides debt and equity financing to middle-market companies, with a focus on first lien and senior secured loans. BDCs are regulated investment vehicles required to distribute at least 90% of taxable income as dividends, and they typically serve as an alternative source of capital for companies that fall outside the reach of traditional bank lending.
The firm primarily targets U.S.-based businesses with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million, while also maintaining exposure in Luxembourg, the Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and the United Kingdom. Its portfolio spans multiple sectors, including healthcare and pharmaceuticals, aerospace and defense, software, business services, food and beverage, leisure, and financial services, reflecting a diversified approach to direct lending within the middle-market segment.
As a Carlyle-affiliated entity, the company benefits from the broader Carlyle Groups private credit platform, which combines sponsor-backed lending with non-sponsored middle-market origination. Listed on NASDAQ since 2017, CGBD operates as a small-cap financial within the Asset Management & Custody Banks sub-industry.
- Floating rate loan income expands on higher Fed rate path
- Middle market credit quality deteriorates as non-accruals rise
- Healthcare and software sector concentration drives portfolio volatility
- Direct lending competition compresses spreads and underwriting margins
| Net Income: 51.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.32 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.68% < 20% (prev 86.35%; Δ -79.67% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 46.3m > Net Income 51.7m |
| Net Debt (1.29b) to EBITDA (103.0m): 12.50 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (70.9m) vs 12m ago 23.66% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.32% > 18% (prev 54.75%; Δ 20.58% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.53% > 50% (prev 6.04%; Δ 2.49% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.07 > 6 (EBIT TTM 97.7m / Interest Expense TTM 91.3m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 68.5m - Total Current Liabilities 54.0m) / Total Assets 2.56b |
| B: -0.09 (Retained Earnings -228.0m / Total Assets 2.56b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 97.7m / Avg Total Assets 2.55b) |
| D: 0.77 (Book Value of Equity 1.12b / Total Liabilities 1.44b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.82 = B |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.39 with a total of 1,020,344 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.14%, over one month by +1.28%, over three months by -2.13% and over the past year by -13.95%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.90 (which is 4.7% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Carlyle Secured Lending has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.50. Therefore, it is recommended to sell CGBD.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 12.4 | 19% |
P/E Trailing = 15.5571
P/E Forward = 7.9051
P/S = 2.8583
P/B = 0.6788
P/EG = 3.54
Revenue TTM = 217.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 97.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 103.0m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.38b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.29b USD (calculated: Debt 1.38b - CCE 97.2m)
Enterprise Value = 2.04b USD (756.8m + Debt 1.38b - CCE 97.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.07 (Ebit TTM 97.7m / Interest Expense TTM 91.3m)
EV/FCF = 44.20x (Enterprise Value 2.04b / FCF TTM 46.3m)
FCF Yield = 2.26% (FCF TTM 46.3m / Enterprise Value 2.04b)
FCF Margin = 21.30% (FCF TTM 46.3m / Revenue TTM 217.1m)
Net Margin = 23.81% (Net Income TTM 51.7m / Revenue TTM 217.1m)
Gross Margin = 75.32% ((Revenue TTM 217.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 53.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 73.23% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 2.04b / Total Assets 2.56b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.59% (Interest Expense 91.3m / Debt 1.38b)
Taxrate = 3.13% (1.67m / 53.4m)
NOPAT = 94.6m (EBIT 97.7m * (1 - 3.13%))
Current Ratio = 1.27 (Total Current Assets 68.5m / Total Current Liabilities 54.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.24 (Debt 1.38b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = 12.50 (Net Debt 1.29b / EBITDA 103.0m)
Debt / FCF = 27.83 (Net Debt 1.29b / FCF TTM 46.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.17b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.03% (Net Income 51.7m / Total Assets 2.56b)
RoE = 4.42% (Net Income TTM 51.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.17b)
RoCE = 3.90% (EBIT 97.7m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 2.56b - Current Liab 54.0m))
RoIC = 3.80% (NOPAT 94.6m / Invested Capital 2.49b)
WACC = 7.00% (E(756.8m)/V(2.14b) * Re(8.12%) + D(1.38b)/V(2.14b) * Rd(6.59%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 8.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 79.57 | Cagr: 10.75%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈130.4m ; Y1≈114.4m ; Y5≈92.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 2.81 (EV 1.48b - Net Debt 1.29b = Equity 195.6m / Shares 69.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -88.86 | EPS CAGR: -17.97% | SUE: -0.17 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 48.93 | Revenue CAGR: 6.27% | SUE: -0.33 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=-0.13% | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=-0.39% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.36 | Chg30d=-0.28% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=-8.4% | GrowthRev=-4.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.40 | Chg30d=-1.18% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+3.5% | GrowthRev=+1.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -72% (up=2, down=20)