CGBD Stock Analysis: Carlyle Secured Lending | NASDAQ
Asset Management | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 780m USD | 12M Return: -5.7% | US8722801029 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 5.67M
EPS Trend: -93.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 58.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 9.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) is a Business Development Company (BDC) that provides debt and equity financing to middle-market companies, with a focus on first lien and senior secured loans. BDCs are regulated investment vehicles required to distribute at least 90% of taxable income as dividends, and they typically serve as an alternative source of capital for companies that fall outside the reach of traditional bank lending.
The firm primarily targets U.S.-based businesses with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million, while also maintaining exposure in Luxembourg, the Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and the United Kingdom. Its portfolio spans multiple sectors, including healthcare and pharmaceuticals, aerospace and defense, software, business services, food and beverage, leisure, and financial services, reflecting a diversified approach to direct lending within the middle-market segment.
As a Carlyle-affiliated entity, the company benefits from the broader Carlyle Groups private credit platform, which combines sponsor-backed lending with non-sponsored middle-market origination. Listed on NASDAQ since 2017, CGBD operates as a small-cap financial within the Asset Management & Custody Banks sub-industry.
- Floating rate loan income expands on higher Fed rate path
- Middle market credit quality deteriorates as non-accruals rise
- Healthcare and software sector concentration drives portfolio volatility
- Direct lending competition compresses spreads and underwriting margins
| Net Income: 37.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 14.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -13.56% < 20% (prev 111.0%; Δ -124.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 299.4m > Net Income 37.0m |
| Net Debt (1.28b) to EBITDA (107.8m): 11.83 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.45 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (70.9m) vs 12m ago -2.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 80.59% > 18% (prev 51.76%; Δ 28.83% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 9.50% > 50% (prev 5.99%; Δ 3.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 102.5m / Interest Expense TTM 90.8m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 25.9m - Total Current Liabilities 58.2m) / Total Assets 2.44b |
| B: -0.10 (Retained Earnings -252.3m / Total Assets 2.44b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 102.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.51b) |
| D: 0.79 (Book Value of Equity 1.08b / Total Liabilities 1.36b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.68 = B |
As of August 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.35 with a total of 379,111 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.00%, over one month by +8.72%, over three months by +8.69% and over the past year by -5.65%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.80 (which is 4.8% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Carlyle Secured Lending has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.50. Therefore, it is recommended to sell CGBD.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 12.3 | 8.3% |
P/E Trailing = 21.7885
P/E Forward = 17.8253
P/S = 3.0031
P/B = 0.715
P/EG = 3.54
Revenue TTM = 238.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 102.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 107.8m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.30b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.28b USD (calculated: Debt 1.30b - CCE 25.9m)
Enterprise Value = 2.06b USD (779.6m + Debt 1.30b - CCE 25.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.13 (Ebit TTM 102.5m / Interest Expense TTM 90.8m)
EV/FCF = 6.87x (Enterprise Value 2.06b / FCF TTM 299.4m)
FCF Yield = 14.57% (FCF TTM 299.4m / Enterprise Value 2.06b)
FCF Margin = 125.6% (FCF TTM 299.4m / Revenue TTM 238.3m)
Net Margin = 15.53% (Net Income TTM 37.0m / Revenue TTM 238.3m)
Gross Margin = 80.59% ((Revenue TTM 238.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 46.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.09% (prev 73.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.84 (Enterprise Value 2.06b / Total Assets 2.44b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.97% (Interest Expense 90.8m / Debt 1.30b)
Taxrate = 5.06% (1.97m / 39.0m)
NOPAT = 97.4m (EBIT 102.5m * (1 - 5.06%))
Current Ratio = 0.45 (Total Current Assets 25.9m / Total Current Liabilities 58.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.21 (Debt 1.30b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.08b)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.83 (Net Debt 1.28b / EBITDA 107.8m)
Debt / FCF = 4.26 (Net Debt 1.28b / FCF TTM 299.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.47% (Net Income 37.0m / Total Assets 2.44b)
RoE = 3.25% (Net Income TTM 37.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.14b)
RoCE = 4.30% (EBIT 102.5m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 2.44b - Current Liab 58.2m))
RoIC = 4.10% (NOPAT 97.4m / Invested Capital 2.37b)
WACC = 7.12% (E(779.6m)/V(2.08b) * Re(7.96%) + D(1.30b)/V(2.08b) * Rd(6.97%) * (1-Tc(0.05)))
Discount Rate = 7.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 84.88 | Cagr: 10.77%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈299.4m ; Y1≈300.7m ; Y5≈318.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 53.45 (EV 4.95b - Net Debt 1.28b = Equity 3.68b / Shares 68.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -93.71 | EPS CAGR: -15.02% | SUE: 1.37 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 58.63 | Revenue CAGR: 9.57% | SUE: 0.04 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=+7.93% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.42 | Chg30d=+4.70% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-4.0% | GrowthRev=-1.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.39 | Chg30d=-0.71% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-1.9% | GrowthRev=+0.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=0, down=1)