CGBD Stock Analysis: Carlyle Secured Lending | NASDAQ
Asset Management | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 727m USD | 12M Return: -2.3% | US8722801029 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.04M
EPS Trend: -93.7%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 58.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 9.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) is a Business Development Company (BDC) that provides debt and equity financing to U.S. middle-market companies. Its investment offerings include first lien debt, senior secured loans, second lien debt, unsecured debt, mezzanine debt, and equity investments, with a direct origination strategy. BDCs like CGBD are regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and are generally required to distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to shareholders as dividends.
The company targets companies with EBITDA between $25 million and $100 million across a diverse set of industries, including healthcare and pharmaceuticals, aerospace and defense, high tech, business services, software, food and beverage, hotel and leisure, financial services, and real estate. Its investment geography spans the United States, Luxembourg, the Cayman Islands, Cyprus, and the United Kingdom, with Carlyle Secured Lending being externally managed by an affiliate of The Carlyle Group, a major global alternative asset manager.
- Net interest income pressured by Fed rate cuts compressing spreads
- Middle market direct lending faces rising competition from private credit funds
- Non-accruals and credit losses rise as borrower defaults increase
- Dividend coverage strained as distributable net investment income declines
| Net Income: 37.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 14.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -13.56% < 20% (prev 111.0%; Δ -124.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 299.4m > Net Income 37.0m |
| Net Debt (1.28b) to EBITDA (107.8m): 11.83 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.45 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (70.9m) vs 12m ago -2.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 80.59% > 18% (prev 51.76%; Δ 28.83% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 9.50% > 50% (prev 5.99%; Δ 3.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 102.5m / Interest Expense TTM 90.8m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 25.9m - Total Current Liabilities 58.2m) / Total Assets 2.44b |
| B: -0.10 (Retained Earnings -252.3m / Total Assets 2.44b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 102.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.51b) |
| D: 0.79 (Book Value of Equity 1.08b / Total Liabilities 1.36b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.68 = B |
As of October 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.50 with a total of 501,553 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.33%, over one month by -5.64%, over three months by +2.96% and over the past year by -2.27%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.10 (which is 3.8% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Carlyle Secured Lending has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.25. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CGBD.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 12.4 | 17.7% |
P/E Trailing = 21.12
P/E Forward = 7.8989
P/S = 2.799
P/B = 0.7147
P/EG = 3.54
Revenue TTM = 238.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 102.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 107.8m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.30b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.28b USD (calculated: Debt 1.30b - CCE 25.9m)
Enterprise Value = 2.00b USD (726.6m + Debt 1.30b - CCE 25.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.13 (Ebit TTM 102.5m / Interest Expense TTM 90.8m)
EV/FCF = 6.69x (Enterprise Value 2.00b / FCF TTM 299.4m)
FCF Yield = 14.95% (FCF TTM 299.4m / Enterprise Value 2.00b)
FCF Margin = 125.6% (FCF TTM 299.4m / Revenue TTM 238.3m)
Net Margin = 15.53% (Net Income TTM 37.0m / Revenue TTM 238.3m)
Gross Margin = 80.59% ((Revenue TTM 238.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 46.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.09% (prev 73.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.82 (Enterprise Value 2.00b / Total Assets 2.44b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.97% (Interest Expense 90.8m / Debt 1.30b)
Taxrate = 5.06% (1.97m / 39.0m)
NOPAT = 97.4m (EBIT 102.5m * (1 - 5.06%))
Current Ratio = 0.45 (Total Current Assets 25.9m / Total Current Liabilities 58.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.21 (Debt 1.30b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.08b)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.83 (Net Debt 1.28b / EBITDA 107.8m)
Debt / FCF = 4.26 (Net Debt 1.28b / FCF TTM 299.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.47% (Net Income 37.0m / Total Assets 2.44b)
RoE = 3.25% (Net Income TTM 37.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.14b)
RoCE = 4.30% (EBIT 102.5m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 2.44b - Current Liab 58.2m))
RoIC = 4.10% (NOPAT 97.4m / Invested Capital 2.37b)
WACC = 7.09% (E(726.6m)/V(2.03b) * Re(7.94%) + D(1.30b)/V(2.03b) * Rd(6.97%) * (1-Tc(0.05)))
Discount Rate = 7.94% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 84.88 | Cagr: 10.77%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈299.4m ; Y1≈300.7m ; Y5≈318.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 53.45 (EV 4.95b - Net Debt 1.28b = Equity 3.68b / Shares 68.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -93.71 | EPS CAGR: -15.02% | SUE: 1.37 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 58.63 | Revenue CAGR: 9.57% | SUE: 0.04 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=+11.24% | Revisions=+67% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.43 | Chg30d=+0.60% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=-3.3% | GrowthRev=-1.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.43 | Chg30d=+2.54% | Revisions=+10% | GrowthEPS=-0.0% | GrowthRev=+1.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +61% (up=17, down=3)