CHA Stock Analysis: Chagee Holdings American | NASDAQ

Restaurants | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.100m USD | 12M Return: -58.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Tea Drinks, Ingredients, Packaging, Equipment
Total Rating 31
Safety 81
Buy Signal -0.77
Restaurants
Industry Rotation: +7.2
Market Cap: 2.10B
Avg Turnover: 8.08M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility56.0%
VaR 5th Pctl9.09%
VaR vs Median-1.49%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-1.43
Rel. Str. IBD9.9
Rel. Str. Peer Group21.4
Character TTM
Beta0.565
Beta Downside1.013
Hurst Exponent0.406
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD72.61%
CAGR/Max DD-0.70
CAGR/Mean DD-1.01
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of CHA over the last years for every Quarter: "2022-12": null, "2023-03": null, "2023-06": null, "2023-09": null, "2023-12": null, "2024-03": null, "2024-06": null, "2024-09": null, "2024-12": 14.64, "2025-03": 3.92, "2025-06": 3.3, "2025-09": 2.57, "2025-12": 0.49, "2026-03": 0.34,
Last SUE: 0.02
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of CHA over the last years for every Quarter: 2022-12: 215.633, 2023-03: 417.027, 2023-06: 732.385, 2023-09: 1443.711, 2023-12: 2047.048, 2024-03: 2506.571, 2024-06: 3023.337, 2024-09: 3541.248, 2024-12: 3334.426, 2025-03: 3392.711, 2025-06: 3331.881, 2025-09: 3208.33, 2025-12: 2974.485, 2026-03: 3546.001,
Rev. CAGR: 66.78%
Rev. Trend: 88.3%
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Choppy
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 1.2 years of data

Jan - -
Feb - -
Mar - -
Apr +32.7% -
May +23.3% -
Jun -2.1% -
Jul - -
Aug - -
Sep - -
Oct - -
Nov - -
Dec - -

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: CHA Chagee Holdings American

Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is a Shanghai-based teahouse operator founded in 2017 that owns, operates, and franchises locations under the CHAGEE brand across nine countries, including China, several Southeast Asian markets, and the United States. The companys core business is selling freshly made tea drinks through its teahouses, complemented by a broader ecosystem of supply chain product sales (raw materials, packaging, and teahouse equipment), brand and marketing services, and information technology activities, with an additional online teahouse channel. Operating within the Consumer Discretionary sector and classified under the GICS Restaurants sub-industry, Chagee pursues a hybrid company-owned and franchised retail model typical of the specialty beverage and quick-service restaurant space. The company completed its U.S. IPO in April 2025.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • China same-store sales weaken as consumer spending slows
  • Southeast Asia store expansion drives international revenue growth
  • Input cost inflation pressures beverage gross margins
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.5
Net Income: 942.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -25.80 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 47.76% < 20% (prev 28.91%; Δ 18.85% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 1.44b > Net Income 942.6m
Net Debt (-6.57b) to EBITDA (1.22b): -5.39 < 3
Current Ratio: 3.42 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (192.2m) vs 12m ago 4.69% < -2%
Gross Margin: 43.99% > 18% (prev 46.61%; Δ -2.62% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 138.2% > 50% (prev 183.3%; Δ -45.08% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM)
Altman Z'' 7.77
A: 0.54 (Total Current Assets 8.82b - Total Current Liabilities 2.58b) / Total Assets 11.7b
B: 0.37 (Retained Earnings 4.32b / Total Assets 11.7b)
C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Avg Total Assets 9.45b)
D: 2.18 (Book Value of Equity 7.82b / Total Liabilities 3.60b)
Altman-Z'' = 7.77 = AAA
Beneish M -2.88
DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 115.8m/132.7m, Revenue 13.1b/13.3b)
GMI: 1.06 (GM 46.61% / 43.99%)
AQI: 1.33 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.05)
SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 13.1b / 13.3b)
TATA: -0.04 (NI 942.6m - CFO 1.44b) / TA 11.7b)
Beneish M = -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of CHA shares?

As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.01 with a total of 655,573 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.02%, over one month by +1.01%, over three months by +13.16% and over the past year by -58.18%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.70 (which is 11.9% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).

Is CHA a buy, sell or hold?

Chagee Holdings American has no consensus analysts rating.

What are the forecasts/targets for the CHA price?
Analysts Target Price 15.4 39.7%
Chagee Holdings American (CHA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 06 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 2.10b (2.10b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
Market Cap CNY = 14.3b (2.10b USD * 6.7929 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 15.0822
P/S = 0.1608
P/B = 1.9873
Revenue TTM = 13.1b CNY
EBIT TTM = 1.07b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 1.22b CNY
Long Term Debt = 856.5m CNY (estimated: total debt 1.35b - short term 494.4m)
Short Term Debt = 494.4m CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.35b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 1.35b already included)
Net Debt = -6.57b CNY (calculated: Debt 1.35b - CCE 7.92b)
Enterprise Value = 7.69b CNY (14.3b + Debt 1.35b - CCE 7.92b)
 Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
 EV/FCF = 8.79x (Enterprise Value 7.69b / FCF TTM 875.7m)
FCF Yield = 11.38% (FCF TTM 875.7m / Enterprise Value 7.69b)
FCF Margin = 6.70% (FCF TTM 875.7m / Revenue TTM 13.1b)
Net Margin = 7.22% (Net Income TTM 942.6m / Revenue TTM 13.1b)
Gross Margin = 43.99% ((Revenue TTM 13.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.32b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.58% (prev 40.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.66 (Enterprise Value 7.69b / Total Assets 11.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 1.35b)
Taxrate = 29.13% (393.3m / 1.35b)
NOPAT = 760.9m (EBIT 1.07b * (1 - 29.13%))
Current Ratio = 3.42 (Total Current Assets 8.82b / Total Current Liabilities 2.58b)
Debt / Equity = 0.17 (Debt 1.35b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.39 (Net Debt -6.57b / EBITDA 1.22b)
Debt / FCF = -7.51 (Net Debt -6.57b / FCF TTM 875.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.97% (Net Income 942.6m / Total Assets 11.7b)
RoE = 11.93% (Net Income TTM 942.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 7.90b)
RoCE = 12.26% (EBIT 1.07b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.90b + L.T.Debt 856.5m))
RoIC = 8.54% (NOPAT 760.9m / Invested Capital 8.91b)
WACC = 7.28% (E(14.3b)/V(15.6b) * Re(7.97%) + D(1.35b)/V(15.6b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 7.97% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 54.77 | Cagr: 2.06%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈1.49b ; Y1≈1.31b ; Y5≈1.06b
[DCF] Fair Price = 187.6 (EV 17.0b - Net Debt -6.57b = Equity 23.5b / Shares 125.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.02 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.26 | Revenue CAGR: 66.78% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.43 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.26 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.05 | Chg30d=+1.15% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-0.2% | GrowthRev=+10.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.43 | Chg30d=-6.66% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+13.7% | GrowthRev=+13.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -8% (up=4, down=5)