CHA Stock Analysis: Chagee Holdings American | NASDAQ
Restaurants | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.095m USD | 12M Return: -27.7% | US15743P1049 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 10.3M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 82.6%
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 1.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Chagee Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: CHA) is a Shanghai-headquartered teahouse operator founded in 2017. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand across eight markets: the Peoples Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and the United States.
Beyond freshly made tea drinks sold at its teahouses, Chagee generates revenue from related raw materials, packaging, teahouse equipment, and other supplies, as well as from supply chain product sales and brand, marketing, and management services. It also runs information technology activities and operates its teahouses online.
The company is classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Restaurants sub-industry, reflecting its store-based retail model. It trades as American Depositary Shares following its April 2025 IPO, with a mid-cap market capitalization.
- International teahouse expansion accelerates across Southeast Asia and US
- Same-store sales growth in core China teahouse segment
- Competition from Mixue and Heytea pressures pricing and market share
| Net Income: 1.34b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -12.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 48.97% < 20% (prev 54.31%; Δ -5.34% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 1.19b > Net Income 1.34b |
| Net Debt (-6.80b) to EBITDA (1.66b): -4.10 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.37 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (193.0m) vs 12m ago 5.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.17% > 18% (prev 47.42%; Δ -6.25% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 112.9% > 50% (prev 122.9%; Δ -10.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.53 (Total Current Assets 9.15b - Total Current Liabilities 2.72b) / Total Assets 12.2b |
| B: 0.39 (Retained Earnings 4.79b / Total Assets 12.2b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 1.51b / Avg Total Assets 11.6b) |
| D: 2.18 (Book Value of Equity 8.22b / Total Liabilities 3.76b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 7.90 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.58 (Receivables 91.9m/163.9m, Revenue 13.1b/13.6b) |
| GMI: 1.15 (GM 47.42% / 41.17%) |
| AQI: 1.82 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 13.1b / 13.6b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 1.34b - CFO 1.19b) / TA 12.2b) |
| Beneish M = -2.77 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.33 with a total of 582,104 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.71%, over one month by -10.01%, over three months by -0.53% and over the past year by -27.72%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.60 (which is 6.4% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Chagee Holdings American has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.27. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CHA.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 15 | 32.7% |
Market Cap CNY = 14.0b (2.09b USD * 6.70455 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 10.7647
P/S = 0.1594
P/B = 1.7563
Revenue TTM = 13.1b CNY
EBIT TTM = 1.51b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 1.66b CNY
Long Term Debt = 898.5m CNY (estimated: total debt 1.41b - short term 508.6m)
Short Term Debt = 508.6m CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.41b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 1.41b already included)
Net Debt = -6.80b CNY (calculated: Debt 1.41b - CCE 8.20b)
Enterprise Value = 7.25b CNY (14.0b + Debt 1.41b - CCE 8.20b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 1.51b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 10.25x (Enterprise Value 7.25b / FCF TTM 706.8m)
FCF Yield = 9.75% (FCF TTM 706.8m / Enterprise Value 7.25b)
FCF Margin = 5.38% (FCF TTM 706.8m / Revenue TTM 13.1b)
Net Margin = 10.20% (Net Income TTM 1.34b / Revenue TTM 13.1b)
Gross Margin = 41.17% ((Revenue TTM 13.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.73b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.39% (prev 41.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.59 (Enterprise Value 7.25b / Total Assets 12.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 1.41b)
Taxrate = 22.17% (382.6m / 1.73b)
NOPAT = 1.18b (EBIT 1.51b * (1 - 22.17%))
Current Ratio = 3.37 (Total Current Assets 9.15b / Total Current Liabilities 2.72b)
Debt / Equity = 0.17 (Debt 1.41b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.10 (Net Debt -6.80b / EBITDA 1.66b)
Debt / FCF = -9.62 (Net Debt -6.80b / FCF TTM 706.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.96b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.51% (Net Income 1.34b / Total Assets 12.2b)
RoE = 16.82% (Net Income TTM 1.34b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.96b)
RoCE = 17.07% (EBIT 1.51b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.96b + L.T.Debt 898.5m))
RoIC = 12.61% (NOPAT 1.18b / Invested Capital 9.34b)
WACC = 5.96% (E(14.0b)/V(15.5b) * Re(6.56%) + D(1.41b)/V(15.5b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 83.41 | Cagr: 2.27%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈1.23b ; Y1≈1.08b ; Y5≈872.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 165.8 (EV 14.0b - Net Debt -6.80b = Equity 20.8b / Shares 125.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 82.56 | Revenue CAGR: 59.64% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.51 | Chg30d=+16.84% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.65 | Chg30d=-2.38% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=-4.2% | GrowthRev=+10.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.68 | Chg30d=-0.78% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+10.6% | GrowthRev=+11.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -10% (up=3, down=4)