CHDN Stock Analysis: Churchill Downs | NASDAQ

Horse Racing, Casino Gaming, Online Wagering, Sports Betting

Total Rating 37

Safety 50

Buy Signal -0.95

Gambling
Industry Rotation: -15.3

Market Cap: 5.15B
Avg Turnover: 97.3M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility39.1%

VaR 5^th Pctl6.70%

VaR vs Median4.07%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.29

Rel. Str. IBD17.5

Rel. Str. Peer Group52.3

Character TTM

Beta0.409

Beta Downside0.856

Hurst Exponent0.421

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD49.51%

CAGR/Max DD-0.20

CAGR/Mean DD-0.46

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 9.11%
EPS Trend: 89.6%

Last SUE: -0.59
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 8.65%
Rev. Trend: 98.4%

Last SUE: 0.24
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Choppy

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -3.0% 20

Feb -0.8% 8

Mar -2.7% 20

Apr +2.7% 8

May -0.8% 17

Jun +1.5% 18

Jul +0.6% 8

Aug +1.2% 16

Sep -2.1% 41

Oct -3.3% 12

Nov +9.2% 31

Dec +1.5% 26

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: CHDN Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ: CHDN) is a U.S. racing, wagering, and gaming operator headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, and founded in 1875. The company runs three reporting segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming, generating revenue across physical venues, online platforms, and casino properties.

The Live and Historical Racing segment centers on Churchill Downs Racetrack and a portfolio of historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire, supplemented by admissions, personal seat licenses, sponsorships, TV rights, and food and beverage services. The Wagering Services and Solutions segment houses the TwinSpires online horse racing platform (along with BetAmerica and white-label partners), retail and online sports betting, the Bloodstock Research Information Services data platform, United Totes pari-mutuel wagering systems, and Exactas central determinant technology used in HRMs. The Gaming segment operates regional casino properties and associated racetracks offering slots, table games, video lottery terminals, video poker, HRMs, hotel accommodations, and pari-mutuel commissions.

The company operates within the Casinos & Gaming sub-industry of Consumer Discretionary, and its pari-mutuel business model pools wagers across participants, with payouts determined after deducting the operators take-a structure that distinguishes traditional horse racing from fixed-odds sportsbook products. Historical Racing Machines (HRMs) function as a legalized bridge between pari-mutuel racing and casino-style gaming, allowing bets on previously recorded races and enabling CHDN to operate gaming-like devices in jurisdictions where traditional slot machines may be restricted.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Historical racing machine expansion drives Live and Historical Racing segment growth
TwinSpires online wagering revenue pressured by FanDuel and DraftKings competition
Regional casino margins hinge on discretionary consumer spending and state gaming regulation

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.5

Net Income: 409.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.11 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -29.25% < 20% (prev -10.89%; Δ -18.36% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 794.8m > Net Income 409.7m
Net Debt (4.59b) to EBITDA (1.11b): 4.12 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.36 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (70.0m) vs 12m ago -3.18% < -2%
Gross Margin: 34.19% > 18% (prev 33.46%; Δ 0.73% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 40.17% > 50% (prev 38.37%; Δ 1.80% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.00 > 6 (EBIT TTM 878.7m / Interest Expense TTM 293.2m)

Altman Z'' 0.84

A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 484.0m - Total Current Liabilities 1.36b) / Total Assets 7.52b
B: 0.18 (Retained Earnings 1.33b / Total Assets 7.52b)
C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 878.7m / Avg Total Assets 7.45b)
D: 0.22 (Book Value of Equity 1.34b / Total Liabilities 6.13b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.84 = B

Beneish M -2.98

DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 129.0m/118.4m, Revenue 2.99b/2.83b)
GMI: 0.98 (GM 33.46% / 34.19%)
AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.55 / AQ_t-1 0.54)
SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 2.99b / 2.83b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 409.7m - CFO 794.8m) / TA 7.52b)
Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of CHDN shares?

As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 79.96 with a total of 1,845,656 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.14%, over one month by -4.96%, over three months by -7.16% and over the past year by -11.89%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 76.00 (which is 5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is CHDN a buy, sell or hold?

Churchill Downs has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.75. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CHDN.

StrongBuy: 9
Buy: 3
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CHDN price?

Analysts Target Price	128.2	60.3%

Churchill Downs (CHDN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 09 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 5.15b (5.15b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 13.3484
P/E Forward = 22.9358
P/S = 1.7228
P/B = 4.182
P/EG = 1.685
Revenue TTM = 2.99b USD
EBIT TTM = 878.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.11b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.11b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 671.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.79b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 8.00m
Net Debt = 4.59b USD (calculated: Debt 4.79b - CCE 196.0m)
Enterprise Value = 9.75b USD (5.15b + Debt 4.79b - CCE 196.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.00 (Ebit TTM 878.7m / Interest Expense TTM 293.2m)
EV/FCF = 25.48x (Enterprise Value 9.75b / FCF TTM 382.6m)
FCF Yield = 3.93% (FCF TTM 382.6m / Enterprise Value 9.75b)
FCF Margin = 12.79% (FCF TTM 382.6m / Revenue TTM 2.99b)
Net Margin = 13.69% (Net Income TTM 409.7m / Revenue TTM 2.99b)
Gross Margin = 34.19% ((Revenue TTM 2.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.97b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.76% (prev 30.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.30 (Enterprise Value 9.75b / Total Assets 7.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.12% (Interest Expense 293.2m / Debt 4.79b)
Taxrate = 29.00% (169.8m / 585.5m)
NOPAT = 623.9m (EBIT 878.7m * (1 - 29.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.36 (Total Current Assets 484.0m / Total Current Liabilities 1.36b)
Debt / Equity = 3.57 (Debt 4.79b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.34b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.12 (Net Debt 4.59b / EBITDA 1.11b)
Debt / FCF = 12.00 (Net Debt 4.59b / FCF TTM 382.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.12b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.50% (Net Income 409.7m / Total Assets 7.52b)
RoE = 36.57% (Net Income TTM 409.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.12b)
RoCE = 16.80% (EBIT 878.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.12b + L.T.Debt 4.11b))
RoIC = 9.33% (NOPAT 623.9m / Invested Capital 6.68b)
WACC = 5.94% (E(5.15b)/V(9.94b) * Re(7.42%) + D(4.79b)/V(9.94b) * Rd(6.12%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 7.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.95 | Cagr: -2.85%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.99% ; FCFF base≈376.4m ; Y1≈391.3m ; Y5≈444.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 32.52 (EV 6.86b - Net Debt 4.59b = Equity 2.27b / Shares 69.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 4.25% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 89.59 | EPS CAGR: 9.11% | SUE: -0.59 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.39 | Revenue CAGR: 8.65% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.17 | Chg30d=-1.62% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.90 | Chg30d=-0.35% | Revisions=-22% | GrowthEPS=+12.5% | GrowthRev=+3.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.38 | Chg30d=-0.28% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+7.1% | GrowthRev=+3.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=6, down=11)