Overview Dividends

(CHDN) Churchill Downs - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US1714841087

Live Racing, Online Wagering, Casino Gaming

Casinos & Gaming
Market Cap in USD: 8,030m

IPO / Inception: 1993-03-29
Return 12m vs S&P 500: -27.4%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -47.77%
EPS Trend: -41.6%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 18.20%
Rev. Trend: 76.5%

Last SUE: 0.88
Qual. Beats: 1

Dividends

Dividend Yield	0.38%
Yield on Cost 5y	0.47%
Yield CAGR 5y	-15.04%
Payout Consistency	92.8%
Payout Ratio	7.1%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	25.2%
Value at Risk 5%th	39.6%
Relative Tail Risk	-4.42%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.42
Alpha	-24.13
CAGR/Max DD	0.06

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.418
Beta	0.610
Beta Downside	0.650

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	41.45%
Mean DD	16.78%
Median DD	16.72%

Description: CHDN Churchill Downs November 04, 2025

Churchill Downs Incorporated (NASDAQ: CHDN) runs a diversified gambling and entertainment business in the United States, organized into three operating segments: Live & Historical Racing, Wagering Services & Solutions, and Gaming. The Live & Historical Racing segment manages the flagship Churchill Downs racetrack and historic racing venues in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire, generating revenue from admissions, personal seat licenses, sponsorships, TV rights, food-and-beverage sales, and ancillary services. The Wagering Services & Solutions segment operates the TwinSpires online horse-racing platform, United Tote pari-mutuel systems, and Exacta technology, while also offering sports-betting and data-analytics services to third parties. The Gaming segment owns and operates casino properties that combine slot machines, table games, video lottery terminals, hotel amenities, and racetrack wagering.

According to CHDN’s FY 2023 Form 10-K (the most recent audited filing), the company reported total revenue of roughly **$2.2 billion**, with **gaming accounting for about 55 %** of that total. Adjusted EBITDA margin hovered near **27 %**, reflecting strong cash generation relative to peers. Online wagering (TwinSpires and sports-betting) grew **≈ 15 % YoY**, driven by expanding state-level sports-betting legalization and higher internet penetration among younger bettors. A key macro driver is discretionary consumer spending, which historically correlates with a **0.6-0.8 % change in gaming revenue for each 1 % shift in personal consumption expenditures**; a slowdown in that metric could pressure future top-line growth.

If you want to explore CHDN’s valuation multiples, scenario-based forecasts, and peer-group comparisons in more depth, ValueRay’s analytical toolkit provides a convenient starting point for further research.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5

Net Income (403.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 173.1m TTM)

FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 5.79pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue -10.76% (prev -12.08%; Δ 1.32pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 804.4m > Net Income 403.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (4.93b) to EBITDA (1.00b) ratio: 4.91 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 0.57 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (71.0m) change vs 12m ago -4.83% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 33.48% (prev 34.43%; Δ -0.95pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 39.44% (prev 37.24%; Δ 2.19pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 2.66 (EBITDA TTM 1.00b / Interest Expense TTM 294.9m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 1.07

(A) -0.04 = (Total Current Assets 414.9m - Total Current Liabilities 725.2m) / Total Assets 7.45b

(B) 0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.04b / Total Assets 7.45b

(D) 0.16 = Book Value of Equity 1.03b / Total Liabilities 6.38b

Total Rating: 1.07 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 61.70

1. Piotroski 4.50pt

2. FCF Yield 4.56%

3. FCF Margin 20.47%

4. Debt/Equity 4.93

5. Debt/Ebitda 4.91

6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.92)%

7. RoE 38.11%

8. Rev. Trend 76.50%

9. EPS Trend -41.64%

What is the price of CHDN shares?

As of December 31, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 114.64 with a total of 425,407 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.63%, over one month by +3.84%, over three months by +17.10% and over the past year by -14.22%.

Is CHDN a buy, sell or hold?

Churchill Downs has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.73. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CHDN.

Strong Buy: 8
Buy: 3
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CHDN price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	136.4	19%
Analysts Target Price	136.4	19%
ValueRay Target Price	114.3	-0.3%

CHDN Fundamental Data Overview December 31, 2025

Market Cap USD = 8.03b (8.03b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 20.82
P/S = 2.7841
P/B = 7.7154
P/EG = 2.58
Beta = 0.697
Revenue TTM = 2.88b USD
EBIT TTM = 785.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.00b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.04b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 63.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.93b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 12.96b USD (8.03b + Debt 5.11b - CCE 180.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.66 (Ebit TTM 785.2m / Interest Expense TTM 294.9m)
FCF Yield = 4.56% (FCF TTM 590.3m / Enterprise Value 12.96b)
FCF Margin = 20.47% (FCF TTM 590.3m / Revenue TTM 2.88b)
Net Margin = 13.98% (Net Income TTM 403.2m / Revenue TTM 2.88b)
Gross Margin = 33.48% ((Revenue TTM 2.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.92b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.91% (prev 41.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.74 (Enterprise Value 12.96b / Total Assets 7.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.48% (Interest Expense 75.6m / Debt 5.11b)
Taxrate = 35.95% (22.0m / 61.2m)
NOPAT = 502.9m (EBIT 785.2m * (1 - 35.95%))
Current Ratio = 0.57 (Total Current Assets 414.9m / Total Current Liabilities 725.2m)
Debt / Equity = 4.93 (Debt 5.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.03b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.91 (Net Debt 4.93b / EBITDA 1.00b)
Debt / FCF = 8.34 (Net Debt 4.93b / FCF TTM 590.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.41% (Net Income 403.2m / Total Assets 7.45b)
RoE = 38.11% (Net Income TTM 403.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.06b)
RoCE = 12.87% (EBIT 785.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.06b + L.T.Debt 5.04b))
RoIC = 8.34% (NOPAT 502.9m / Invested Capital 6.03b)
WACC = 5.42% (E(8.03b)/V(13.14b) * Re(8.26%) + D(5.11b)/V(13.14b) * Rd(1.48%) * (1-Tc(0.36)))
Discount Rate = 8.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.22%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 69.50% ; FCFE base≈415.2m ; Y1≈272.6m ; Y5≈124.7m
Fair Price DCF = 33.88 (DCF Value 2.36b / Shares Outstanding 69.7m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -41.64 | EPS CAGR: -47.77% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 76.50 | Revenue CAGR: 18.20% | SUE: 0.88 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.96 | Chg30d=+0.034 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.66 | Chg30d=+0.048 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+10.5% | Growth Revenue=+3.6%

Additional Sources for CHDN Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle