(CHDN) Churchill Downs - Overview

Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Gambling | Exchange: NASDAQ (USA) | Market Cap: 6.055m USD | Total Return: -7.9% in 12m

Horse Racing, Casinos, Online Wagering, Slot Machines, Sports Betting
Total Rating 37
Safety 54
Buy Signal -0.52
Gambling
Industry Rotation: -11.7
Market Cap: 6.06B
Avg Turnover: 79.3M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility30.3%
VaR 5th Pctl5.13%
VaR vs Median3.03%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.23
Rel. Str. IBD15
Rel. Str. Peer Group32.5
Character TTM
Beta0.676
Beta Downside1.194
Hurst Exponent0.511
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD43.28%
CAGR/Max DD-0.34
CAGR/Mean DD-0.76
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of CHDN over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.44, "2021-06": 1.54, "2021-09": 0.81, "2021-12": 1.11, "2022-03": 0.59, "2022-06": 1.95, "2022-09": 0.81, "2022-12": 1.46, "2023-03": 0.98, "2023-06": 2.24, "2023-09": 0.87, "2023-12": 0.86, "2024-03": 1.13, "2024-06": 2.89, "2024-09": 0.97, "2024-12": 0.92, "2025-03": 1.07, "2025-06": 3.1, "2025-09": 1.09, "2025-12": 0.97, "2026-03": 1.16,
EPS CAGR: 7.34%
EPS Trend: 83.2%
Last SUE: 1.23
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of CHDN over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 324.3, 2021-06: 515.1, 2021-09: 393, 2021-12: 364.8, 2022-03: 364.1, 2022-06: 582.5, 2022-09: 383.1, 2022-12: 480.1, 2023-03: 559.5, 2023-06: 768.5, 2023-09: 572.5, 2023-12: 561.2, 2024-03: 590.9, 2024-06: 890.7, 2024-09: 628.5, 2024-12: 624.2, 2025-03: 642.6, 2025-06: 934.4, 2025-09: 683, 2025-12: 665.9, 2026-03: 663,
Rev. CAGR: 10.39%
Rev. Trend: 96.9%
Last SUE: 0.12
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Altman Z'' 1.05 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Confidence

Description: CHDN Churchill Downs

Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) is a diversified racing and gaming operator with three core segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming. The company manages iconic horse racing venues, including its namesake Churchill Downs Racetrack, alongside regional casinos and historical racing machine (HRM) facilities across multiple states. Its digital division, TwinSpires, serves as a major platform for online horse race wagering and statistical data services.

The business model relies heavily on pari-mutuel wagering, a system where bettors wager against each other rather than a bookmaker, with the operator taking a fixed percentage of the total pool. Within the broader gaming sector, the regulatory shift toward legalized sports betting and the expansion of HRM technology have become significant drivers for land-based and digital growth. Unlike traditional casinos, CHDN’s integration of proprietary wagering technology and historical racing data provides a vertical advantage in the horse racing niche.

Evaluating the long-term intrinsic value of these gaming assets on ValueRay can help clarify the stocks current market positioning.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Historical Racing Machine expansion drives high-margin revenue growth across Kentucky and Virginia
  • Kentucky Derby sponsorship and ticketing demand dictates annual second quarter earnings performance
  • Regulatory shifts in state gaming laws impact regional casino and HRM licensing
  • TwinSpires online wagering volume fluctuates based on horse racing industry participation rates
  • Capital intensive construction projects for new gaming venues influence long-term debt levels
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.5
Net Income: 385.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.03 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -13.03% < 20% (prev -14.13%; Δ 1.10% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 818.3m > Net Income 385.6m
Net Debt (4.74b) to EBITDA (1.04b): 4.54 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.54 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (70.0m) vs 12m ago -5.91% < -2%
Gross Margin: 33.81% > 18% (prev 0.34%; Δ 3.35k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 39.73% > 50% (prev 37.92%; Δ 1.81% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.71 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.04b / Interest Expense TTM 297.4m)
Altman Z'' 1.05
A: -0.05 (Total Current Assets 452.0m - Total Current Liabilities 836.0m) / Total Assets 7.49b
B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 1.09b / Total Assets 7.49b)
C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 805.9m / Avg Total Assets 7.42b)
D: 0.17 (Book Value of Equity 1.10b / Total Liabilities 6.34b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.05 = BB
Beneish M -3.15
DSRI: 0.86 (Receivables 99.0m/108.6m, Revenue 2.95b/2.79b)
GMI: 1.00 (GM 33.81% / 33.84%)
AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.55 / AQ_t-1 0.54)
SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 2.95b / 2.79b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 385.6m - CFO 818.3m) / TA 7.49b)
Beneish M = -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of CHDN shares?

As of May 31, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 87.21 with a total of 898,267 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.96%, over one month by -13.78%, over three months by -5.13% and over the past year by -7.86%.

Is CHDN a buy, sell or hold?

Churchill Downs has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.73. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CHDN.

  • StrongBuy: 8
  • Buy: 3
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CHDN price?
Analysts Target Price 137.3 57.4%
Churchill Downs (CHDN) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 30 May 2026
Market Cap USD = 6.06b (6.06b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 16.0
P/E Forward = 25.3165
P/S = 2.0555
P/B = 5.5249
P/EG = 1.5723
Revenue TTM = 2.95b USD
EBIT TTM = 805.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.04b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.87b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 63.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.94b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 8.00m
Net Debt = 4.74b USD (calculated: Debt 4.94b - CCE 200.0m)
Enterprise Value = 10.8b USD (6.06b + Debt 4.94b - CCE 200.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.71 (Ebit TTM 805.9m / Interest Expense TTM 297.4m)
EV/FCF = 16.00x (Enterprise Value 10.8b / FCF TTM 674.6m)
FCF Yield = 6.25% (FCF TTM 674.6m / Enterprise Value 10.8b)
FCF Margin = 22.90% (FCF TTM 674.6m / Revenue TTM 2.95b)
Net Margin = 13.09% (Net Income TTM 385.6m / Revenue TTM 2.95b)
Gross Margin = 33.81% ((Revenue TTM 2.95b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.95b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.62% (prev 29.54%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.44 (Enterprise Value 10.8b / Total Assets 7.49b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.03% (Interest Expense 297.4m / Debt 4.94b)
Taxrate = 26.55% (30.0m / 113.0m)
NOPAT = 591.9m (EBIT 805.9m * (1 - 26.55%))
Current Ratio = 0.54 (Total Current Assets 452.0m / Total Current Liabilities 836.0m)
Debt / Equity = 4.50 (Debt 4.94b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.54 (Net Debt 4.74b / EBITDA 1.04b)
Debt / FCF = 7.02 (Net Debt 4.74b / FCF TTM 674.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.05b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.20% (Net Income 385.6m / Total Assets 7.49b)
RoE = 36.88% (Net Income TTM 385.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.05b)
RoCE = 13.63% (EBIT 805.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.05b + L.T.Debt 4.87b))
RoIC = 9.09% (NOPAT 591.9m / Invested Capital 6.51b)
WACC = 6.59% (E(6.06b)/V(11.0b) * Re(8.36%) + D(4.94b)/V(11.0b) * Rd(6.03%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.01 | Cagr: -3.48%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈521.7m ; Y1≈598.1m ; Y5≈880.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 122.1 (EV 13.2b - Net Debt 4.74b = Equity 8.51b / Shares 69.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 83.17 | EPS CAGR: 7.34% | SUE: 1.23 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 96.89 | Revenue CAGR: 10.39% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.42 | Chg30d=+0.41% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.18 | Chg30d=+4.09% | Revisions=+20% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.87 | Chg30d=+4.87% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+12.1% | GrowthRev=+3.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.27 | Chg30d=+0.49% | Revisions=+20% | GrowthEPS=+5.8% | GrowthRev=+3.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +40%