CHDN Stock Analysis: Churchill Downs | NASDAQ
Gambling | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 6.330m USD | 12M Return: -8.2% | US1714841087 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 90.6M
EPS Trend: 89.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) is a U.S.-based gambling and entertainment company operating across three reporting segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming. Its racing operations center on the historic Churchill Downs Racetrack in Louisville along with historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire. The Wagering Services and Solutions segment runs the TwinSpires and BetAmerica.com online wagering platforms, plus B2B technology offerings through subsidiaries like United Tote and Exacta Systems, while the Gaming segment operates regional casino properties featuring slot machines, table games, and hotel services. Founded in 1875 and listed on NASDAQ in 1993, CHDN is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sectors Casinos & Gaming sub-industry.
The company spans three distinct gambling verticals: pari-mutuel horse racing, sports betting, and casino gaming. Pari-mutuel wagering - where payouts are derived from a pooled bet rather than fixed house odds - forms the foundation of the racing business model, while historical racing machines (HRMs), which allow wagers on replays of past races, have emerged as a key growth channel as the company expands its footprint beyond traditional live racing venues.
- HRM property expansion drives Live and Historical Racing segment growth
- TwinSpires wagering margins compress under sportsbook competition
- New regional gaming properties boost consolidated revenue and EBITDA
| Net Income: 409.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -29.25% < 20% (prev -10.89%; Δ -18.36% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 794.8m > Net Income 409.7m |
| Net Debt (4.59b) to EBITDA (1.11b): 4.12 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.36 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (70.0m) vs 12m ago -3.18% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.19% > 18% (prev 33.46%; Δ 0.73% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 40.17% > 50% (prev 38.37%; Δ 1.80% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.00 > 6 (EBIT TTM 878.7m / Interest Expense TTM 293.2m) |
| A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 484.0m - Total Current Liabilities 1.36b) / Total Assets 7.52b |
| B: 0.18 (Retained Earnings 1.33b / Total Assets 7.52b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 878.7m / Avg Total Assets 7.45b) |
| D: 0.22 (Book Value of Equity 1.34b / Total Liabilities 6.13b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.84 = B |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 129.0m/118.4m, Revenue 2.99b/2.83b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 33.46% / 34.19%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.55 / AQ_t-1 0.54) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 2.99b / 2.83b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 409.7m - CFO 794.8m) / TA 7.52b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 93.71 with a total of 906,224 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.18%, over one month by +12.46%, over three months by +9.56% and over the past year by -8.18%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 85.80 (which is 8.4% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).
Churchill Downs has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.73. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CHDN.
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 131.6 | 40.5% |
P/E Trailing = 15.4194
P/E Forward = 22.9358
P/S = 2.1158
P/B = 4.7205
P/EG = 1.685
Revenue TTM = 2.99b USD
EBIT TTM = 878.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.11b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.11b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 671.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.79b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 8.00m
Net Debt = 4.59b USD (calculated: Debt 4.79b - CCE 196.0m)
Enterprise Value = 10.9b USD (6.33b + Debt 4.79b - CCE 196.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.00 (Ebit TTM 878.7m / Interest Expense TTM 293.2m)
EV/FCF = 28.55x (Enterprise Value 10.9b / FCF TTM 382.6m)
FCF Yield = 3.50% (FCF TTM 382.6m / Enterprise Value 10.9b)
FCF Margin = 12.79% (FCF TTM 382.6m / Revenue TTM 2.99b)
Net Margin = 13.69% (Net Income TTM 409.7m / Revenue TTM 2.99b)
Gross Margin = 34.19% ((Revenue TTM 2.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.97b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.76% (prev 30.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 10.9b / Total Assets 7.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.12% (Interest Expense 293.2m / Debt 4.79b)
Taxrate = 29.00% (169.8m / 585.5m)
NOPAT = 623.9m (EBIT 878.7m * (1 - 29.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.36 (Total Current Assets 484.0m / Total Current Liabilities 1.36b)
Debt / Equity = 3.57 (Debt 4.79b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.34b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.12 (Net Debt 4.59b / EBITDA 1.11b)
Debt / FCF = 12.00 (Net Debt 4.59b / FCF TTM 382.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.12b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.50% (Net Income 409.7m / Total Assets 7.52b)
RoE = 36.57% (Net Income TTM 409.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.12b)
RoCE = 16.80% (EBIT 878.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.12b + L.T.Debt 4.11b))
RoIC = 9.33% (NOPAT 623.9m / Invested Capital 6.68b)
WACC = 6.03% (E(6.33b)/V(11.1b) * Re(7.30%) + D(4.79b)/V(11.1b) * Rd(6.12%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 7.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.95 | Cagr: -2.85%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.99% ; FCFF base≈376.4m ; Y1≈391.3m ; Y5≈444.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 32.52 (EV 6.86b - Net Debt 4.59b = Equity 2.27b / Shares 69.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 4.25% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 89.59 | EPS CAGR: 9.11% | SUE: -0.59 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.39 | Revenue CAGR: 8.65% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.18 | Chg30d=+0.65% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.90 | Chg30d=+0.30% | Revisions=-22% | GrowthEPS=+12.6% | GrowthRev=+3.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.38 | Chg30d=+1.95% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+6.9% | GrowthRev=+3.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=6, down=11)