CINF Stock Analysis: Cincinnati Financial | NASDAQ
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 27.137m USD | 12M Return: 25.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 166M
EPS Trend: 79.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 93.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation is a U.S.-based property casualty insurance holding company operating through five segments: Commercial Lines, Personal Lines, Excess and Surplus Lines, Life Insurance, and Investments. Its core business spans commercial and personal property and casualty coverage, including commercial auto, workers compensation, homeowners, and personal auto, alongside specialty excess and surplus lines for harder-to-place risks. The company also writes life insurance and annuities, manages a sizable investment portfolio of fixed-maturity and equity securities, and provides commercial leasing, financing, and insurance brokerage services.
Founded in 1950 and headquartered in Fairfield, Ohio, the company has historically been known for distributing its products primarily through independent agents, a model common among U.S. regional property and casualty insurers. In the property and casualty industry, the investment segment plays a meaningful role because premiums collected before claims are paid-commonly referred to as float-can be invested to generate income that supplements underwriting results.
- Commercial Lines premium growth accelerates on sustained pricing increases
- Investment income surges as higher rates lift fixed maturity yields
- Catastrophe losses and reserve development drive combined ratio volatility
| Net Income: 2.76b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.43 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -101.5% < 20% (prev -97.74%; Δ -3.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 3.46b > Net Income 2.76b |
| Net Debt (-307.0m) to EBITDA (3.65b): -0.08 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (156.6m) vs 12m ago 0.11% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 50.29% > 18% (prev 42.05%; Δ 8.24% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 32.93% > 50% (prev 29.42%; Δ 3.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 46.68 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.49b / Interest Expense TTM 74.7m) |
| A: -0.32 (Total Current Assets 5.45b - Total Current Liabilities 18.6b) / Total Assets 41.2b |
| B: 0.41 (Retained Earnings 16.8b / Total Assets 41.2b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 3.49b / Avg Total Assets 39.2b) |
| D: 0.62 (Book Value of Equity 15.7b / Total Liabilities 25.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.49 = B |
| DSRI: 0.68 (Receivables 3.46b/4.32b, Revenue 12.9b/11.0b) |
| GMI: 0.84 (GM 42.05% / 50.29%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.86 / AQ_t-1 0.82) |
| SGI: 1.18 (Revenue 12.9b / 11.0b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 2.76b - CFO 3.46b) / TA 41.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.28 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 182.67 with a total of 718,296 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.65%, over one month by +8.46%, over three months by +12.21% and over the past year by +25.13%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 176.50 (which is 3.4% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Cincinnati Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.63. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CINF.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 183.2 | 0.3% |
P/E Trailing = 10.3866
P/E Forward = 21.1864
P/S = 2.0991
P/B = 1.7871
P/EG = 2.1896
Revenue TTM = 12.9b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.49b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.65b USD
Long Term Debt = 791.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 25.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 952.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 68.0m
Net Debt = -307.0m USD (calculated: Debt 952.0m - CCE 1.26b)
Enterprise Value = 26.8b USD (27.1b + Debt 952.0m - CCE 1.26b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 46.68 (Ebit TTM 3.49b / Interest Expense TTM 74.7m)
EV/FCF = 7.78x (Enterprise Value 26.8b / FCF TTM 3.45b)
FCF Yield = 12.86% (FCF TTM 3.45b / Enterprise Value 26.8b)
FCF Margin = 26.69% (FCF TTM 3.45b / Revenue TTM 12.9b)
Net Margin = 21.34% (Net Income TTM 2.76b / Revenue TTM 12.9b)
Gross Margin = 50.29% ((Revenue TTM 12.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.42b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.84% (prev 52.29%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 26.8b / Total Assets 41.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.85% (Interest Expense 74.7m / Debt 952.0m)
Taxrate = 19.71% (677.0m / 3.43b)
NOPAT = 2.80b (EBIT 3.49b * (1 - 19.71%))
Current Ratio = 0.29 (Total Current Assets 5.45b / Total Current Liabilities 18.6b)
Debt / Equity = 0.06 (Debt 952.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15.7b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.08 (Net Debt -307.0m / EBITDA 3.65b)
Debt / FCF = -0.09 (Net Debt -307.0m / FCF TTM 3.45b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.03% (Net Income 2.76b / Total Assets 41.2b)
RoE = 17.98% (Net Income TTM 2.76b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.3b)
RoCE = 21.63% (EBIT 3.49b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.3b + L.T.Debt 791.0m))
RoIC = 12.72% (NOPAT 2.80b / Invested Capital 22.0b)
WACC = 7.45% (E(27.1b)/V(28.1b) * Re(7.49%) + D(952.0m)/V(28.1b) * Rd(7.85%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -20.95 | Cagr: -0.35%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈3.10b ; Y1≈3.56b ; Y5≈5.24b
[DCF] Fair Price = 511.5 (EV 78.8b - Net Debt -307.0m = Equity 79.1b / Shares 154.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 79.84 | EPS CAGR: 23.34% | SUE: 0.38 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.10 | Revenue CAGR: 11.22% | SUE: -0.28 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.75 | Chg30d=+1.10% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.89 | Chg30d=+0.07% | Revisions=+12% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.78 | Chg30d=+0.18% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+10.5% | GrowthRev=-4.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.20 | Chg30d=+0.16% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+4.7% | GrowthRev=+6.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +41% (up=14, down=5)