CME Stock Analysis: CME | NASDAQ
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 91.892m USD | 12M Return: -4.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 796M
EPS Trend: 99.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 98.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
CME Group Inc. is a global operator of regulated derivatives exchanges, offering futures and options contracts across interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, and agricultural, energy, and metals commodities. Beyond trading, the company runs clearing house services that guarantee and settle these contracts, and provides real-time and historical market data products. Its customer base spans professional traders, financial institutions, corporations, governments, and central banks.
Headquartered in Chicago and founded in 1898, the company was reorganized under the CME Group name in 2007, consolidating what had been the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. As a large-cap Financials stock in the Financial Exchanges & Data sub-industry, CME monetizes activity through a mix of transaction fees, clearing fees, and data subscriptions, with its central counterparty role functioning much like a utility for the global derivatives market.
- Fed rate volatility drives interest rate futures trading volume
- Market data services deliver high-margin recurring revenue growth
- Capital allocation through dividends and buybacks supports shareholder returns
| Net Income: 4.27b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.13 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 42.02% < 20% (prev 41.21%; Δ 0.81% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 4.28b > Net Income 4.27b |
| Net Debt (1.15b) to EBITDA (5.37b): 0.21 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (362.2m) vs 12m ago 0.54% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 81.89% > 18% (prev 86.53%; Δ -4.64% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.62% > 50% (prev 3.58%; Δ 0.03% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 59.31 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.20b / Interest Expense TTM 87.7m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 162b - Total Current Liabilities 159b) / Total Assets 195b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 5.46b / Total Assets 195b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 5.20b / Avg Total Assets 187b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 26.5b / Total Liabilities 168b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.54 = B |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 753.1m/667.6m, Revenue 6.77b/6.44b) |
| GMI: 1.06 (GM 86.53% / 81.89%) |
| AQI: 0.89 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.19) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 6.77b / 6.44b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 4.27b - CFO 4.28b) / TA 195b) |
| Beneish M = -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 25, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 255.31 with a total of 1,711,627 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.19%, over one month by +10.20%, over three months by -9.97% and over the past year by -4.31%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 241.00 (which is 5.6% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
CME has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.31. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CME.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 280.1 | 9.7% |
P/E Trailing = 21.282
P/E Forward = 20.4082
P/S = 13.5958
P/B = 3.3833
P/EG = 4.375
Revenue TTM = 6.77b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.20b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.37b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.42b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 55.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.42b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.15b USD (calculated: Debt 3.42b - CCE 2.28b)
Enterprise Value = 93.0b USD (91.9b + Debt 3.42b - CCE 2.28b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 59.31 (Ebit TTM 5.20b / Interest Expense TTM 87.7m)
EV/FCF = 22.19x (Enterprise Value 93.0b / FCF TTM 4.19b)
FCF Yield = 4.51% (FCF TTM 4.19b / Enterprise Value 93.0b)
FCF Margin = 61.92% (FCF TTM 4.19b / Revenue TTM 6.77b)
Net Margin = 63.08% (Net Income TTM 4.27b / Revenue TTM 6.77b)
Gross Margin = 81.89% ((Revenue TTM 6.77b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.23b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 69.25% (prev 88.14%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.48 (Enterprise Value 93.0b / Total Assets 195b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.56% (Interest Expense 87.7m / Debt 3.42b)
Taxrate = 23.63% (1.32b / 5.59b)
NOPAT = 3.97b (EBIT 5.20b * (1 - 23.63%))
Current Ratio = 1.02 (Total Current Assets 162b / Total Current Liabilities 159b)
Debt / Equity = 0.13 (Debt 3.42b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 26.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.21 (Net Debt 1.15b / EBITDA 5.37b)
Debt / FCF = 0.27 (Net Debt 1.15b / FCF TTM 4.19b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 27.5b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.28% (Net Income 4.27b / Total Assets 195b)
RoE = 15.53% (Net Income TTM 4.27b / Total Stockholder Equity 27.5b)
RoCE = 16.81% (EBIT 5.20b / Capital Employed (Equity 27.5b + L.T.Debt 3.42b))
RoIC = 11.16% (NOPAT 3.97b / Invested Capital 35.6b)
WACC = 4.98% (E(91.9b)/V(95.3b) * Re(5.09%) + D(3.42b)/V(95.3b) * Rd(2.56%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 5.09% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 75.81 | Cagr: 0.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.71% ; FCFF base≈4.16b ; Y1≈4.25b ; Y5≈4.66b
[DCF] Fair Price = 196.7 (EV 72.2b - Net Debt 1.15b = Equity 71.1b / Shares 361.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 2.10% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.30 | EPS CAGR: 10.76% | SUE: 2.81 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 98.45 | Revenue CAGR: 8.86% | SUE: 1.34 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.96 | Chg30d=-0.31% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.16 | Chg30d=-0.95% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+8.6% | GrowthRev=+7.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=12.83 | Chg30d=-0.67% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+5.5% | GrowthRev=+4.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +31% (up=7, down=3)