(CNTA) Centessa Pharmaceuticals - Overview
Stock: Sleep Disorder Drug, Ox2R Agonist, Tumor Immunotherapy, Neurology Drug
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 48.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.08% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.91 |
| Alpha | 35.09 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.965 |
| Beta Downside | 1.105 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 43.72% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.08 |
Description: CNTA Centessa Pharmaceuticals January 13, 2026
Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc (NASDAQ: CNTA) is a UK-based, clinical-stage biotech that focuses on orexin-based therapeutics and immune-modulating oncology agents. Its flagship asset, ORX-750, is an oral OX2R agonist currently in a Phase 2a trial targeting idiopathic hypersomnia and both types of narcolepsy, conditions with an estimated combined prevalence of ~0.05 % in the U.S. and limited approved treatments.
Beyond ORX-750, the pipeline includes ORX-142, a next-generation orexin agonist aimed at broader neuro-cognitive indications such as excessive daytime sleepiness, attention deficits, and fatigue, and ORX-489, which is being explored for neuropsychiatric disorders. The company also markets LockBody, a proprietary antibody platform designed to concentrate CD3-mediated effector activity within the tumor micro-environment, positioning it for combination immuno-oncology strategies.
Key sector drivers that could materially affect Centessa’s valuation are (1) the growing market for sleep-disorder therapeutics, projected to exceed $10 bn globally by 2027, (2) the increasing adoption of oral biologics and small-molecule agonists that can bypass injection barriers, and (3) the overall biotech funding environment, which remains robust with Q1-2024 venture capital inflows up ~12 % YoY.
Recent performance metrics (as of the latest filing) show a cash runway of roughly 18 months, R&D spend of $42 m in FY 2023, and a modest increase in total enrollment for the ORX-750 trial (now 78 patients versus 62 in the prior interim analysis).
For a data-driven deep-dive into CNTA’s risk-adjusted upside, you may find the analyst tools on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: -242.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.40 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -19.57 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1746 % < 20% (prev 7908 %; Δ -6162 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.40 > 3% & CFO -180.8m > Net Income -242.7m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 10.57 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (134.2m) vs 12m ago 15.41% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 94.22% > 18% (prev 0.86%; Δ 9336 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.02% > 50% (prev 1.12%; Δ 1.89% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -20.50 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -227.3m / Interest Expense TTM 11.1m) |
Altman Z'' -14.96
| A: 0.62 (Total Current Assets 307.7m - Total Current Liabilities 29.1m) / Total Assets 448.3m |
| B: -2.50 (Retained Earnings -1.12b / Total Assets 448.3m) |
| C: -0.43 (EBIT TTM -228.2m / Avg Total Assets 529.0m) |
| D: -7.61 (Book Value of Equity -1.12b / Total Liabilities 146.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -14.96 = D |
Beneish M 0.31
| DSRI: 0.56 (Receivables 52.2m/40.0m, Revenue 16.0m/6.85m) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 94.22% / 85.95%) |
| AQI: 6.01 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 2.33 (Revenue 16.0m / 6.85m) |
| TATA: -0.14 (NI -242.7m - CFO -180.8m) / TA 448.3m) |
| Beneish M-Score: 0.31 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of CNTA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.96%, over one month by +10.69%, over three months by +6.43% and over the past year by +50.77%.
Is CNTA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CNTA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 39.6 | 55.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 39.6 | 55.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 33.6 | 32% |
CNTA Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/B = 12.0433
Revenue TTM = 16.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -228.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = -227.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 109.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 684.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 118.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 67.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.46b USD (3.59b + Debt 118.3m - CCE 246.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -20.50 (Ebit TTM -228.2m / Interest Expense TTM 11.1m)
EV/FCF = -19.10x (Enterprise Value 3.46b / FCF TTM -181.2m)
FCF Yield = -5.23% (FCF TTM -181.2m / Enterprise Value 3.46b)
FCF Margin = -1136 % (FCF TTM -181.2m / Revenue TTM 16.0m)
Net Margin = -1521 % (Net Income TTM -242.7m / Revenue TTM 16.0m)
Gross Margin = 94.22% ((Revenue TTM 16.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 922.6k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 7.72 (Enterprise Value 3.46b / Total Assets 448.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.44% (Interest Expense 2.89m / Debt 118.3m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -180.3m (EBIT -228.2m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 10.57 (Total Current Assets 307.7m / Total Current Liabilities 29.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.39 (Debt 118.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 301.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.30 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 67.4m / EBITDA -227.3m)
Debt / FCF = -0.37 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 67.4m / FCF TTM -181.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 358.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -45.88% (Net Income -242.7m / Total Assets 448.3m)
RoE = -67.68% (Net Income TTM -242.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 358.6m)
RoCE = -48.72% (EBIT -228.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 358.6m + L.T.Debt 109.8m))
RoIC = -38.52% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -180.3m / Invested Capital 468.0m)
WACC = 9.23% (E(3.59b)/V(3.71b) * Re(9.47%) + D(118.3m)/V(3.71b) * Rd(2.44%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 17.05%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -181.2m)
EPS Correlation: 52.72 | EPS CAGR: 35.71% | SUE: 2.16 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 32.10 | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: -0.26 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.42 | Chg30d=-0.004 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.68 | Chg30d=-0.056 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-25.0% | Growth Revenue=-100.0%