(COGT) Cogent Biosciences - Overview
Stock: Bezuclastinib, CGT4859, Kinase Inhibitors
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 70.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.46 |
| Alpha | 257.86 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.897 |
| Beta Downside | 1.566 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 71.51% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.55 |
Description: COGT Cogent Biosciences January 16, 2026
Cogent Biosciences (NASDAQ:COGT) is a U.S. biotech focused on precision medicines for genetically defined cancers. Its flagship candidate, bezuclastinib (CGT-9486), is a selective KIT tyrosine-kinase inhibitor currently in a pivotal Phase 3 trial targeting the KIT D816V mutation that drives systemic mastocytosis and KIT exon 17 alterations in advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). The company’s pipeline also includes CGT-4859, a reversible FGFR2 inhibitor in Phase 1 for FGFR-mutant malignancies such as advanced cholangiocarcinoma, and it commercializes bezuclastinib under a licensing deal with Plexxikon.
Key operational metrics (as of the latest 10-Q) show roughly $120 million of cash and marketable securities, giving the firm an estimated 18-month runway at its current burn rate of ~$6 million per quarter. The Phase 3 trial for bezuclastinib has enrolled >150 patients across 30 sites, with an interim analysis expected in Q3 2026-a critical catalyst for valuation. The biotech sector’s R&D intensity remains high, with industry-wide capital expenditures rising ~12% YoY, reflecting investor appetite for targeted therapies that can command premium pricing upon approval.
Given the concentration of cash in late-stage oncology programs, analysts should monitor enrollment velocity and any emerging safety signals, as these variables materially affect the probability-adjusted net present value of the pipeline.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of COGT’s risk-adjusted upside, you might find ValueRay’s quantitative dashboards useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: -294.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.58 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -7.90 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7805 % < 20% (prev 5162 %; Δ 2643 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.58 > 3% & CFO -245.9m > Net Income -294.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 6.38 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (114.5m) vs 12m ago 3.90% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 46.53% > 18% (prev 0.28%; Δ 4625 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 1.06% > 50% (prev 1.46%; Δ -0.40% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -170.0 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -297.3m / Interest Expense TTM 1.77m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.79 (Total Current Assets 397.2m - Total Current Liabilities 62.2m) / Total Assets 425.9m |
| B: -2.55 (Retained Earnings -1.09b / Total Assets 425.9m) |
| C: -0.74 (EBIT TTM -301.4m / Avg Total Assets 405.0m) |
| D: -8.79 (Book Value of Equity -1.09b / Total Liabilities 123.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -17.38 = D |
What is the price of COGT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.26%, over one month by +6.61%, over three months by +151.90% and over the past year by +304.36%.
Is COGT a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the COGT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 50.8 | 36.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 50.8 | 36.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 42.7 | 15.2% |
COGT Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/B = 29.7071
Revenue TTM = 4.29m USD
EBIT TTM = -301.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -297.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 44.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.71m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 60.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -64.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.18b USD (5.51b + Debt 60.6m - CCE 390.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -170.0 (Ebit TTM -301.4m / Interest Expense TTM 1.77m)
EV/FCF = -21.00x (Enterprise Value 5.18b / FCF TTM -246.7m)
FCF Yield = -4.76% (FCF TTM -246.7m / Enterprise Value 5.18b)
FCF Margin = -5749 % (FCF TTM -246.7m / Revenue TTM 4.29m)
Net Margin = -6859 % (Net Income TTM -294.4m / Revenue TTM 4.29m)
Gross Margin = 46.53% ((Revenue TTM 4.29m - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.29m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 12.17 (Enterprise Value 5.18b / Total Assets 425.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.41% (Interest Expense 1.46m / Debt 60.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -238.1m (EBIT -301.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.38 (Total Current Assets 397.2m / Total Current Liabilities 62.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.20 (Debt 60.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 302.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.22 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -64.7m / EBITDA -297.3m)
Debt / FCF = 0.26 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -64.7m / FCF TTM -246.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 233.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -72.69% (Net Income -294.4m / Total Assets 425.9m)
RoE = -126.2% (Net Income TTM -294.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 233.2m)
RoCE = -108.6% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -301.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 233.2m + L.T.Debt 44.2m))
RoIC = -162.4% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -238.1m / Invested Capital 146.6m)
WACC = 12.78% (E(5.51b)/V(5.57b) * Re(12.90%) + D(60.6m)/V(5.57b) * Rd(2.41%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 14.88%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -246.7m)
EPS Correlation: 26.21 | EPS CAGR: 21.06% | SUE: 1.59 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 19.54 | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.50 | Chg30d=-0.011 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.78 | Chg30d=-0.052 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+20.2% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%