(COGT) Cogent Biosciences - Ratings and Ratios
Kinase Inhibitor, FGFR Inhibitor
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 70.5% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 101% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.27% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.42 |
| Alpha | 265.90 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.438 |
| Beta | 1.962 |
| Beta Downside | 1.722 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 74.06% |
| Mean DD | 36.66% |
| Median DD | 37.39% |
Description: COGT Cogent Biosciences November 13, 2025
Cogent Biosciences (NASDAQ: COGT) is a U.S. biotech focused on precision medicines for genetically defined cancers. Its flagship candidate, bezuclastinib (CGT9486), is a selective KIT tyrosine-kinase inhibitor currently in a pivotal Phase 3 trial targeting the KIT D816V mutation that drives systemic mastocytosis and other exon 17 alterations found in advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST). The pipeline also includes CGT4859, a reversible FGFR2 inhibitor in Phase 1 testing for FGFR-mutant malignancies such as cholangiocarcinoma. Bezuclastinib’s development and eventual commercialization are governed by a licensing deal with Plexxikon, and the company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.
As of the latest filing (Q2 2024), Cogent reported a market capitalization of roughly $190 million and cash and equivalents of $85 million, giving it an estimated runway into 2026 assuming current burn rates. The systemic mastocytosis market is small (≈ 5,000 U.S. patients) but underserved, and the FDA’s recent approval of avapritinib (Ayvakit) for KIT-mutant GIST provides a precedent that could accelerate regulatory review for bezuclastinib. Sector-wide, biotech R&D spending has risen 7 % YoY, while venture capital inflows into precision-oncology platforms remain robust, suggesting ample capital for later-stage partners if trial data meet endpoints.
If you’re evaluating high-conviction biotech bets, a deeper dive into Cogent’s trial design, endpoint assumptions, and comparative potency data on ValueRay can help clarify the risk-reward profile.
COGT Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 5,193m |
| Sub-Industry | Biotechnology |
| IPO / Inception | 2018-03-29 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 242% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.17 of 5 |
COGT Dividends
Currently no dividends paidCOGT Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 45.43% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.61 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 1.24 |
| Current Volume | 4273.3k |
| Average Volume | 3449.4k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income (-294.4m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 257.5k TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.58 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -7.90pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 7805 % (prev 5162 %; Δ 2643 pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.58 (>3.0%) and CFO -245.9m > Net Income -294.4m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 6.38 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (114.5m) change vs 12m ago 3.90% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 46.53% (prev 27.76%; Δ 18.77pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 1.06% (prev 1.46%; Δ -0.40pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -170.0 (EBITDA TTM -297.3m / Interest Expense TTM 1.77m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -17.38
| (A) 0.79 = (Total Current Assets 397.2m - Total Current Liabilities 62.2m) / Total Assets 425.9m |
| (B) -2.55 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -1.09b / Total Assets 425.9m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -2.55 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.74 = EBIT TTM -301.4m / Avg Total Assets 405.0m |
| (D) -8.79 = Book Value of Equity -1.09b / Total Liabilities 123.5m |
| Total Rating: -17.38 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 47.68
| 1. Piotroski 1.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -5.07% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.20 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.22 |
| 7. RoE -126.2% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 5.01% |
| 9. EPS Trend 28.01% |
What is the price of COGT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.57%, over one month by +113.93%, over three months by +192.46% and over the past year by +282.16%.
Is COGT a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the COGT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 42.7 | 23% |
| Analysts Target Price | 42.7 | 23% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 37.3 | 7.4% |
COGT Fundamental Data Overview November 18, 2025
P/S = 1320.6301
P/B = 26.4642
Beta = 0.638
Revenue TTM = 4.29m USD
EBIT TTM = -301.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -297.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 44.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.71m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 60.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -64.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.86b USD (5.19b + Debt 60.6m - CCE 390.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -170.0 (Ebit TTM -301.4m / Interest Expense TTM 1.77m)
FCF Yield = -5.07% (FCF TTM -246.7m / Enterprise Value 4.86b)
FCF Margin = -5749 % (FCF TTM -246.7m / Revenue TTM 4.29m)
Net Margin = -6859 % (Net Income TTM -294.4m / Revenue TTM 4.29m)
Gross Margin = 46.53% ((Revenue TTM 4.29m - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.29m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 11.42 (Enterprise Value 4.86b / Total Assets 425.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.41% (Interest Expense 1.46m / Debt 60.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -238.1m (EBIT -301.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.38 (Total Current Assets 397.2m / Total Current Liabilities 62.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.20 (Debt 60.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 302.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.22 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -64.7m / EBITDA -297.3m)
Debt / FCF = 0.26 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -64.7m / FCF TTM -246.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 233.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -69.11% (Net Income -294.4m / Total Assets 425.9m)
RoE = -126.2% (Net Income TTM -294.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 233.2m)
RoCE = -108.6% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -301.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 233.2m + L.T.Debt 44.2m))
RoIC = -162.4% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -238.1m / Invested Capital 146.6m)
WACC = 13.11% (E(5.19b)/V(5.25b) * Re(13.24%) + D(60.6m)/V(5.25b) * Rd(2.41%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 13.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 14.88%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -246.7m)
EPS Correlation: 28.01 | EPS CAGR: 13.83% | SUE: 0.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 5.01 | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for COGT Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle