COLL Stock Analysis: Collegium Pharmaceutical | NASDAQ

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 729m USD | 12M Return: -38.5% | US19459J1043 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

ADHD Medication, Pain Therapeutics, Opioid Analgesics, Constipation Treatment
Total Rating 33
Safety 68
Buy Signal -0.88
Market Cap: 729M
Avg Turnover: 22.9M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility36.7%
VaR 5th Pctl6.13%
VaR vs Median1.42%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.96
Rel. Str. IBD1.2
Rel. Str. Peer Group4.2
Character TTM
Beta0.433
Beta Downside0.189
Hurst Exponent0.457
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD53.13%
CAGR/Max DD0.02
CAGR/Mean DD0.05
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of COLL over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 0.78, "2021-12": -0.51, "2022-03": 0.91, "2022-06": 1.21, "2022-09": 1.1, "2022-12": -0.21, "2023-03": 1.32, "2023-06": 1.26, "2023-09": 1.34, "2023-12": 1.58, "2024-03": 1.45, "2024-06": 1.62, "2024-09": 1.61, "2024-12": 1.77, "2025-03": 1.49, "2025-06": 1.47, "2025-09": 2.25, "2025-12": 1.85, "2026-03": 1.76, "2026-06": 1.57,
EPS CAGR: 19.30%
EPS Trend: 85.1%
Last SUE: 0.53
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of COLL over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 78.843, 2021-12: 27.362, 2022-03: 83.751, 2022-06: 123.549, 2022-09: 127.013, 2022-12: 129.62, 2023-03: 144.767, 2023-06: 135.546, 2023-09: 136.709, 2023-12: 149.745, 2024-03: 144.923, 2024-06: 145.276, 2024-09: 159.301, 2024-12: 181.949, 2025-03: 177.757, 2025-06: 188, 2025-09: 209.361, 2025-12: 205.449, 2026-03: 193.52, 2026-06: 199.878,
Rev. CAGR: 17.46%
Rev. Trend: 98.4%
Last SUE: -0.16
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.2 years of data

Jan +7.7% 16
Feb -2.5% 2
Mar -5.9% 12
Apr -4.0% 30
May -4.8% 34
Jun +1.4% 19
Jul +0.0% 5
Aug -0.1% 0
Sep -3.0% 21
Oct +0.8% 0
Nov +17.0% 42
Dec +0.1% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: COLL Collegium Pharmaceutical

Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (NASDAQ: COLL) is a U.S.-based specialty pharmaceutical company headquartered in Stoughton, Massachusetts. Founded in 2002 and listed on the market since its 2015 IPO, the company focuses on developing and commercializing medicines primarily for pain management.

Its product portfolio includes Jornay PM for ADHD, Belbuca and Xtampza ER for severe chronic pain, Nucynta ER and IR formulations of tapentadol for acute and persistent pain, and Symproic for opioid-induced constipation. The inclusion of abuse-deterrent formulations such as Xtampza ER highlights a notable business model emphasis on addressing opioid safety alongside therapeutic efficacy.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Xtampza ER and Belbuca sales growth drive pain franchise revenue
  • Jornay PM gains share in competitive ADHD stimulant market
  • Opioid litigation and DEA quota constraints pose regulatory headwinds
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0
Net Income: 47.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.15 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.70 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 2.25% < 20% (prev 11.97%; Δ -9.72% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 329.9m > Net Income 47.9m
Net Debt (968.6m) to EBITDA (586.6m): 1.65 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.03 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (32.5m) vs 12m ago -16.93% < -2%
Gross Margin: 60.02% > 18% (prev 56.69%; Δ 3.33% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 43.35% > 50% (prev 44.39%; Δ -1.04% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.48 > 6 (EBIT TTM 239.6m / Interest Expense TTM 161.9m)
Altman Z'' 0.94
A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 608.0m - Total Current Liabilities 589.9m) / Total Assets 2.14b
B: -0.05 (Retained Earnings -101.7m / Total Assets 2.14b)
C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 239.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.86b)
D: 0.17 (Book Value of Equity 311.9m / Total Liabilities 1.82b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.94 = BB
Beneish M -2.79
DSRI: 1.17 (Receivables 285.1m/213.0m, Revenue 808.2m/707.0m)
GMI: 0.94 (GM 56.69% / 60.02%)
AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.71 / AQ_t-1 0.64)
SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 808.2m / 707.0m)
TATA: -0.13 (NI 47.9m - CFO 329.9m) / TA 2.14b)
Beneish M = -2.79 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of COLL shares?

As of September 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 23.36 with a total of 1,077,594 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.67%, over one month by -14.12%, over three months by -32.09% and over the past year by -38.48%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 21.70 (which is 7.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is COLL a buy, sell or hold?

Collegium Pharmaceutical has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.20. Therefore, it is recommended to buy COLL.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the COLL price?
Analysts Target Price 49.6 112.3%
Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 06 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 729.4m (729.4m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 18.5276
P/E Forward = 3.7161
P/S = 0.9025
P/B = 2.5363
Revenue TTM = 808.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 239.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 586.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.04b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 56.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.10b USD (corrected: LT Debt 1.04b + ST Debt 56.6m) + Leases 4.97m
Net Debt = 968.6m USD (calculated: Debt 1.10b - CCE 129.5m)
Enterprise Value = 1.70b USD (729.4m + Debt 1.10b - CCE 129.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.48 (Ebit TTM 239.6m / Interest Expense TTM 161.9m)
EV/FCF = 5.17x (Enterprise Value 1.70b / FCF TTM 328.3m)
FCF Yield = 19.33% (FCF TTM 328.3m / Enterprise Value 1.70b)
FCF Margin = 40.62% (FCF TTM 328.3m / Revenue TTM 808.2m)
Net Margin = 5.93% (Net Income TTM 47.9m / Revenue TTM 808.2m)
Gross Margin = 60.02% ((Revenue TTM 808.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 323.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 55.18% (prev 60.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 1.70b / Total Assets 2.14b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 14.75% (Interest Expense 161.9m / Debt 1.10b)
Taxrate = 38.32% (29.8m / 77.7m)
NOPAT = 147.8m (EBIT 239.6m * (1 - 38.32%))
Current Ratio = 1.03 (Total Current Assets 608.0m / Total Current Liabilities 589.9m)
Debt / Equity = 3.52 (Debt 1.10b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 311.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.65 (Net Debt 968.6m / EBITDA 586.6m)
Debt / FCF = 2.95 (Net Debt 968.6m / FCF TTM 328.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 300.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.57% (Net Income 47.9m / Total Assets 2.14b)
RoE = 15.96% (Net Income TTM 47.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 300.2m)
RoCE = 17.93% (EBIT 239.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 300.2m + L.T.Debt 1.04b))
RoIC = 9.46% (NOPAT 147.8m / Invested Capital 1.56b)
WACC = 8.46% (E(729.4m)/V(1.83b) * Re(7.51%) + D(1.10b)/V(1.83b) * Rd(14.75%) * (1-Tc(0.38)))
Discount Rate = 7.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -46.78 | Cagr: -10.28%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.60% ; FCFF base≈277.7m ; Y1≈318.3m ; Y5≈468.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 191.7 (EV 6.91b - Net Debt 968.6m = Equity 5.94b / Shares 31.0m; r=8.46% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 85.11 | EPS CAGR: 19.30% | SUE: 0.53 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.35 | Revenue CAGR: 17.46% | SUE: -0.16 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.86 | Chg30d=-11.01% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.47 | Chg30d=-3.85% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+0.6% | GrowthRev=+7.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.77 | Chg30d=-9.84% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=-9.4% | GrowthRev=-1.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=1, down=6)