(COST) Costco Wholesale - Ratings and Ratios
Groceries, Electronics, Gasoline, Pharmacy, Travel
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 19.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 30.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.57% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.21 |
| Alpha | -10.59 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.520 |
| Beta | 0.494 |
| Beta Downside | 0.477 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 17.29% |
| Mean DD | 5.52% |
| Median DD | 4.64% |
Description: COST Costco Wholesale September 24, 2025
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a global network of membership-only warehouse clubs across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, serving markets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan, China, Spain, France, Iceland, New Zealand, and Sweden.
The retailer sells a broad assortment of branded and private-label merchandise-including groceries, electronics, apparel, and household goods-and augments its product offering with ancillary services such as gasoline stations, pharmacies, optical centers, food courts, hearing-aid clinics, tire installation, and a suite of online services (e.g., business delivery and travel).
Recent financial metrics underscore Costco’s operational strength: FY 2024 net sales reached approximately $226 billion, comparable sales grew 4.5% year-over-year, and the membership renewal rate held steady near 92%, delivering a low-cost, high-margin revenue engine. The company’s cash conversion cycle remains among the shortest in consumer retail, supporting a free-cash-flow yield of roughly 5%.
Key economic drivers for the warehouse-club segment include resilient consumer spending on essential and bulk goods, low-inflation pricing pressure due to the “treasure-hunt” model, and the ability to capture incremental traffic from high-income households that value price certainty and bulk purchasing. Macro-level trends such as modest wage growth and stable unemployment rates tend to bolster membership renewal, while supply-chain disruptions can be mitigated by Costco’s vertically integrated private-label (Kirkland) sourcing.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of Costco’s valuation dynamics and scenario analysis, a quick look at ValueRay’s analytical dashboard can help you surface the most material risk-adjusted opportunities.
COST Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 409,976m |
| Sub-Industry | Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail |
| IPO / Inception | 1993-09-22 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -15.3% |
| Analyst Rating | 3.97 of 5 |
COST Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.57% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.44% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -22.92% |
| Payout Consistency | 50.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 27.4% |
COST Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 20.39% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.18 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 3.69 |
| Current Volume | 2968.6k |
| Average Volume | 2456.3k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (8.10b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 16.51b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.10 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.67pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 0.46% (prev -0.48%; Δ 0.94pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 (>3.0%) and CFO 13.34b > Net Income 8.10b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-5.99b) to EBITDA (13.40b) ratio: -0.45 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.03 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (444.7m) change vs 12m ago -0.06% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 12.84% (prev 12.61%; Δ 0.23pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 374.6% (prev 364.4%; Δ 10.26pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 69.58 (EBITDA TTM 13.40b / Interest Expense TTM 154.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.50
| (A) 0.02 = (Total Current Assets 38.38b - Total Current Liabilities 37.11b) / Total Assets 77.10b |
| (B) 0.29 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 22.65b / Total Assets 77.10b |
| (C) 0.15 = EBIT TTM 10.72b / Avg Total Assets 73.47b |
| (D) 0.44 = Book Value of Equity 20.88b / Total Liabilities 47.94b |
| Total Rating: 2.50 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 78.84
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt = 0.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 1.95% = 0.97 |
| 3. FCF Margin 2.85% = 0.71 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.28 = 2.46 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.45 = 2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 16.98)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 30.47% = 2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 56.51% = 4.24 |
| 9. EPS Trend 59.05% = 2.95 |
What is the price of COST shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.56%, over one month by -4.73%, over three months by -9.07% and over the past year by -3.75%.
Is COST a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 17
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 15
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the COST price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 1056 | 18.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 1056 | 18.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 970.7 | 9% |
COST Fundamental Data Overview November 15, 2025
P/E Trailing = 50.7728
P/E Forward = 45.2489
P/S = 1.4895
P/B = 13.8892
P/EG = 5.089
Beta = 0.982
Revenue TTM = 275.24b USD
EBIT TTM = 10.72b USD
EBITDA TTM = 13.40b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.71b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 178.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 8.17b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -5.99b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 402.87b USD (409.98b + Debt 8.17b - CCE 15.28b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 69.58 (Ebit TTM 10.72b / Interest Expense TTM 154.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.95% (FCF TTM 7.84b / Enterprise Value 402.87b)
FCF Margin = 2.85% (FCF TTM 7.84b / Revenue TTM 275.24b)
Net Margin = 2.94% (Net Income TTM 8.10b / Revenue TTM 275.24b)
Gross Margin = 12.84% ((Revenue TTM 275.24b - Cost of Revenue TTM 239.89b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.91% (prev 12.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.23 (Enterprise Value 402.87b / Total Assets 77.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.56% (Interest Expense 46.0m / Debt 8.17b)
Taxrate = 25.64% (900.0m / 3.51b)
NOPAT = 7.97b (EBIT 10.72b * (1 - 25.64%))
Current Ratio = 1.03 (Total Current Assets 38.38b / Total Current Liabilities 37.11b)
Debt / Equity = 0.28 (Debt 8.17b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 29.16b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.45 (Net Debt -5.99b / EBITDA 13.40b)
Debt / FCF = -0.76 (Net Debt -5.99b / FCF TTM 7.84b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 26.58b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.50% (Net Income 8.10b / Total Assets 77.10b)
RoE = 30.47% (Net Income TTM 8.10b / Total Stockholder Equity 26.58b)
RoCE = 33.18% (EBIT 10.72b / Capital Employed (Equity 26.58b + L.T.Debt 5.71b))
RoIC = 24.66% (NOPAT 7.97b / Invested Capital 32.31b)
WACC = 7.69% (E(409.98b)/V(418.15b) * Re(7.83%) + D(8.17b)/V(418.15b) * Rd(0.56%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 7.83% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.03%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.72% ; FCFE base≈7.35b ; Y1≈8.15b ; Y5≈10.62b
Fair Price DCF = 416.4 (DCF Value 184.53b / Shares Outstanding 443.2m; 5y FCF grow 12.47% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 59.05 | EPS CAGR: 12.95% | SUE: 0.66 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 56.51 | Revenue CAGR: 18.17% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for COST Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle