COST Stock Analysis: Costco Wholesale | NASDAQ
Discount Stores | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 417.863m USD | 12M Return: -5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 2.39B
EPS Trend: 99.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.2%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates membership-based warehouse clubs across more than a dozen countries, including the United States, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, Korea, Australia, and several European markets. The company sells a broad assortment of merchandise-ranging from groceries, fresh foods, and liquor to apparel, electronics, and housewares-alongside a sizable package of ancillary services such as gasoline stations, pharmacies, optical centers, food courts, and tire installation.
The business model relies on annual membership fees as a key recurring revenue stream and customer-loyalty mechanism, layered on top of a high-volume, low-margin retail strategy that emphasizes limited SKU counts and rapid inventory turnover. Costco is classified within the Consumer Staples sector, reflecting the generally defensive, demand-stable nature of its core grocery and household-goods offering. Founded in 1976 and headquartered in Issaquah, Washington, the company was originally named Costco Companies, Inc. before adopting its current name in August 1999.
- Membership renewal rates above 90 percent support recurring revenue growth
- International warehouse expansion accelerates in China and Europe
- Gold bar and gasoline sales boost ancillary margins
| Net Income: 8.84b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.49 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.04% < 20% (prev 0.21%; Δ 0.83% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 15.0b > Net Income 8.84b |
| Net Debt (-8.31b) to EBITDA (13.8b): -0.60 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (443.5m) vs 12m ago -0.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.88% > 18% (prev 12.78%; Δ 0.10% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 362.7% > 50% (prev 356.1%; Δ 6.57% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 76.88 > 6 (EBIT TTM 11.2b / Interest Expense TTM 146.0m) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 45.2b - Total Current Liabilities 42.1b) / Total Assets 86.4b |
| B: 0.31 (Retained Earnings 26.5b / Total Assets 86.4b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 11.2b / Avg Total Assets 81.0b) |
| D: 0.63 (Book Value of Equity 33.5b / Total Liabilities 52.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.83 = A |
| DSRI: 1.19 (Receivables 3.75b/2.88b, Revenue 294b/269b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 12.78% / 12.88%) |
| AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 294b / 269b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 8.84b - CFO 15.0b) / TA 86.4b) |
| Beneish M = -2.87 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 946.68 with a total of 2,063,453 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.32%, over one month by -1.12%, over three months by -5.98% and over the past year by -4.97%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 918.20 (which is 3% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Costco Wholesale has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.97. Therefore, it is recommended to buy COST.
- StrongBuy: 17
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 15
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 1082.9 | 14.4% |
P/E Trailing = 47.3964
P/E Forward = 41.841
P/S = 1.4233
P/B = 12.4702
P/EG = 4.5988
Revenue TTM = 294b USD
EBIT TTM = 11.2b USD
EBITDA TTM = 13.8b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.67b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 361.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 10.6b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 2.47b
Net Debt = -8.31b USD (calculated: Debt 10.6b - CCE 18.9b)
Enterprise Value = 410b USD (418b + Debt 10.6b - CCE 18.9b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 76.88 (Ebit TTM 11.2b / Interest Expense TTM 146.0m)
EV/FCF = 46.51x (Enterprise Value 410b / FCF TTM 8.81b)
FCF Yield = 2.15% (FCF TTM 8.81b / Enterprise Value 410b)
FCF Margin = 3.00% (FCF TTM 8.81b / Revenue TTM 294b)
Net Margin = 3.01% (Net Income TTM 8.84b / Revenue TTM 294b)
Gross Margin = 12.88% ((Revenue TTM 294b - Cost of Revenue TTM 256b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.77% (prev 12.76%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.74 (Enterprise Value 410b / Total Assets 86.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.37% (Interest Expense 146.0m / Debt 10.6b)
Taxrate = 24.80% (2.91b / 11.8b)
NOPAT = 8.44b (EBIT 11.2b * (1 - 24.80%))
Current Ratio = 1.07 (Total Current Assets 45.2b / Total Current Liabilities 42.1b)
Debt / Equity = 0.32 (Debt 10.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 33.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.60 (Net Debt -8.31b / EBITDA 13.8b)
Debt / FCF = -0.94 (Net Debt -8.31b / FCF TTM 8.81b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 31.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.92% (Net Income 8.84b / Total Assets 86.4b)
RoE = 28.27% (Net Income TTM 8.84b / Total Stockholder Equity 31.3b)
RoCE = 30.39% (EBIT 11.2b / Capital Employed (Equity 31.3b + L.T.Debt 5.67b))
RoIC = 28.15% (NOPAT 8.44b / Invested Capital 30.0b)
WACC = 6.88% (E(418b)/V(429b) * Re(7.03%) + D(10.6b)/V(429b) * Rd(1.37%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -62.93 | Cagr: -0.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈8.21b ; Y1≈9.41b ; Y5≈13.9b
[DCF] Fair Price = 488.8 (EV 208b - Net Debt -8.31b = Equity 217b / Shares 443.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.68 | EPS CAGR: 13.30% | SUE: -0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.25 | Revenue CAGR: 7.12% | SUE: 2.60 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-11-30): EPS=4.86 | Chg30d=+0.93% | Revisions=+47% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-08-31): EPS=20.58 | Chg30d=+0.21% | Revisions=+48% | GrowthEPS=+13.0% | GrowthRev=+9.4%
EPS next Year (2027-08-31): EPS=22.67 | Chg30d=+0.39% | Revisions=+55% | GrowthEPS=+10.2% | GrowthRev=+8.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +55%