CRNC Stock Analysis: Cerence | NASDAQ
Software - Application | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 360m USD | 12M Return: -37.2% | US1567271093 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.58M
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: -35.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Cerence Inc. (NASDAQ: CRNC) is a U.S.-based software company that develops AI-powered virtual assistants primarily for the automotive and mobility sector, supplying products to global markets across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. Its offerings include edge and cloud-connected software components, virtual assistant platforms, and professional services, with a core focus on conversational and generative AI technologies such as speech recognition, natural language understanding, speech signal enhancement, text-to-speech, and acoustic tuning. The company is pursuing strategic partnerships with Arm Kleidi and SiMa.ai to enhance its CaLLM Edge capabilities, reflecting broader industry efforts to optimize large language model inference on edge devices. Cerence was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts.
- AI assistant revenue tied to global vehicle production cycles
- Generative AI integration via CaLLM Edge partnerships with Arm and SiMa.ai
- China revenue concentration creates geopolitical and tariff exposure risk
- Recurring license backlog growth supports margin expansion versus auto OEM cyclicality
| Net Income: -15.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 35.65% < 20% (prev 33.56%; Δ 2.09% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 84.7m > Net Income -15.4m |
| Net Debt (73.0m) to EBITDA (44.3m): 1.65 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.08 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (47.7m) vs 12m ago 10.36% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 78.69% > 18% (prev 70.54%; Δ 8.16% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 49.21% > 50% (prev 38.62%; Δ 10.59% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.68 > 6 (EBIT TTM 29.5m / Interest Expense TTM 6.30m) |
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 212.3m - Total Current Liabilities 101.9m) / Total Assets 620.9m |
| B: -1.52 (Retained Earnings -942.5m / Total Assets 620.9m) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 29.5m / Avg Total Assets 628.9m) |
| D: 0.37 (Book Value of Equity 166.4m / Total Liabilities 454.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.08 = D |
| DSRI: 0.59 (Receivables 45.9m/62.2m, Revenue 309.5m/245.9m) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 70.54% / 78.69%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.61 / AQ_t-1 0.62) |
| SGI: 1.26 (Revenue 309.5m / 245.9m) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI -15.4m - CFO 84.7m) / TA 620.9m) |
| Beneish M = -3.30 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.83 with a total of 553,032 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.97%, over one month by -7.23%, over three months by -30.83% and over the past year by -37.16%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.30 (which is 6.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Cerence has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.14. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CRNC.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 10.8 | 37.3% |
P/E Forward = 44.2478
P/S = 1.1618
P/B = 2.1996
Revenue TTM = 309.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 29.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 44.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 173.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.06m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 200.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 13.6m
Net Debt = 73.0m USD (calculated: Debt 200.6m - CCE 127.6m)
Enterprise Value = 432.6m USD (359.6m + Debt 200.6m - CCE 127.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.68 (Ebit TTM 29.5m / Interest Expense TTM 6.30m)
EV/FCF = 5.50x (Enterprise Value 432.6m / FCF TTM 78.6m)
FCF Yield = 18.18% (FCF TTM 78.6m / Enterprise Value 432.6m)
FCF Margin = 25.41% (FCF TTM 78.6m / Revenue TTM 309.5m)
Net Margin = -4.97% (Net Income TTM -15.4m / Revenue TTM 309.5m)
Gross Margin = 78.69% ((Revenue TTM 309.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 65.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.04% (prev 73.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.70 (Enterprise Value 432.6m / Total Assets 620.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.14% (Interest Expense 6.30m / Debt 200.6m)
Taxrate = 0.97% (15.0k / 1.55m)
NOPAT = 29.2m (EBIT 29.5m * (1 - 0.97%))
Current Ratio = 2.08 (Total Current Assets 212.3m / Total Current Liabilities 101.9m)
Debt / Equity = 1.21 (Debt 200.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 166.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.65 (Net Debt 73.0m / EBITDA 44.3m)
Debt / FCF = 0.93 (Net Debt 73.0m / FCF TTM 78.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 156.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.45% (Net Income -15.4m / Total Assets 620.9m)
RoE = -9.84% (Net Income TTM -15.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 156.5m)
RoCE = 8.93% (EBIT 29.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 156.5m + L.T.Debt 173.5m))
RoIC = 5.75% (NOPAT 29.2m / Invested Capital 507.6m)
WACC = 14.40% (E(359.6m)/V(560.2m) * Re(20.70%) + D(200.6m)/V(560.2m) * Rd(3.14%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 20.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 56.10 | Cagr: 6.17%
[DCF] Terminal Value 60.93% ; FCFF base≈63.9m ; Y1≈73.2m ; Y5≈107.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 15.58 (EV 777.6m - Net Debt 73.0m = Equity 704.6m / Shares 45.2m; r=14.40% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.15 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -35.33 | Revenue CAGR: -5.51% | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=-27.50% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=+3.17% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+39.0% | GrowthRev=+24.2%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=0.79 | Chg30d=+2.48% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+7.2% | GrowthRev=-7.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +12% (up=3, down=2)