CRNC Stock Analysis: Cerence | NASDAQ

Software - Application | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 375m USD | 12M Return: -0.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

AI Assistants, Speech Recognition, Natural Language, Mobility Software
Total Rating 31
Safety 42
Buy Signal -0.38
Software - Application
Industry Rotation: +23.4
Market Cap: 375M
Avg Turnover: 6.18M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility89.4%
VaR 5th Pctl13.6%
VaR vs Median-6.96%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.37
Rel. Str. IBD13
Rel. Str. Peer Group22.1
Character TTM
Beta4.210
Beta Downside3.518
Hurst Exponent0.478
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD91.15%
CAGR/Max DD-0.34
CAGR/Mean DD-0.52
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of CRNC over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.62, "2021-09": 0.66, "2021-12": 0.59, "2022-03": 0.33, "2022-06": 0.43, "2022-09": -0.14, "2022-12": 0.36, "2023-03": -0.04, "2023-06": -0.04, "2023-09": 0.09, "2023-12": 1.12, "2024-03": -0.09, "2024-06": 0.19, "2024-09": -0.07, "2024-12": -0.03, "2025-03": 0.63, "2025-06": 0.12, "2025-09": -0.12, "2025-12": 0.18, "2026-03": 0.18,
Last SUE: 0.29
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of CRNC over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 96.801, 2021-09: 98.076, 2021-12: 94.426, 2022-03: 86.28, 2022-06: 89.041, 2022-09: 58.144, 2022-12: 83.658, 2023-03: 68.393, 2023-06: 61.66, 2023-09: 80.764, 2023-12: 138.335, 2024-03: 67.825, 2024-06: 70.539, 2024-09: 54.805, 2024-12: 50.896, 2025-03: 78.01, 2025-06: 62.236, 2025-09: 60.639, 2025-12: 115.076, 2026-03: 64.192,
Rev. CAGR: -4.86%
Rev. Trend: -30.8%
Last SUE: 1.29
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Choppy
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 6.8 years of data

Jan +3.0% 2
Feb -17.9% 38
Mar -11.7% 33
Apr -8.4% 17
May -0.6% 0
Jun -4.8% 20
Jul -7.2% 11
Aug -3.2% 10
Sep -6.7% 35
Oct +1.1% 0
Nov +22.4% 19
Dec +2.8% 19

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: CRNC Cerence

Cerence Inc. (NASDAQ: CRNC) is a U.S.-based software company that develops AI-powered virtual assistants primarily for the automotive and mobility sector, with operations spanning North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. Its product portfolio includes edge and cloud-connected software components, virtual assistant platforms, and professional services, with core capabilities in speech recognition, natural language understanding, speech signal enhancement, text-to-speech, and acoustic tuning. The company is headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts, and was incorporated in 2020 following its 2019 IPO.

The firm generates revenue by licensing its AI-driven conversational technology to automakers and tier-1 suppliers, typically on a per-vehicle or royalty-based model, which is the standard approach in the embedded automotive software industry. Cerence has strategic partnerships with Arm Kleidi and SiMa.ai aimed at advancing CaLLM Edge, a small language model optimized for in-vehicle AI processing. As a player in the niche automotive AI software market, it competes with general-purpose voice AI providers while benefiting from the broader industry shift toward AI-enhanced in-cabin experiences and software-defined vehicles.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Automaker production volumes directly drive license royalty revenue
  • Big Tech AI assistants threaten Cerences automotive market share
  • Cloud subscription revenue shift accelerates toward recurring model
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.0
Net Income: -19.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.49 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 32.10% < 20% (prev 29.21%; Δ 2.88% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 88.5m > Net Income -19.6m
Net Debt (94.1m) to EBITDA (37.8m): 2.49 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.90 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (46.9m) vs 12m ago -8.99% < -2%
Gross Margin: 78.28% > 18% (prev 69.80%; Δ 8.48% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 47.12% > 50% (prev 38.20%; Δ 8.92% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.87 > 6 (EBIT TTM 28.1m / Interest Expense TTM 7.26m)
Altman Z'' -3.30
A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 204.3m - Total Current Liabilities 107.3m) / Total Assets 617.0m
B: -1.53 (Retained Earnings -944.0m / Total Assets 617.0m)
C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 28.1m / Avg Total Assets 641.2m)
D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 158.5m / Total Liabilities 458.4m)
Altman-Z'' = -3.30 = D
Beneish M -3.14
DSRI: 0.82 (Receivables 63.6m/65.0m, Revenue 302.1m/254.2m)
GMI: 0.89 (GM 69.80% / 78.28%)
AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.59 / AQ_t-1 0.58)
SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 302.1m / 254.2m)
TATA: -0.18 (NI -19.6m - CFO 88.5m) / TA 617.0m)
Beneish M = -3.14 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of CRNC shares?

As of August 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.52 with a total of 626,218 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.89%, over one month by -24.73%, over three months by -6.37% and over the past year by -0.93%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.10 (which is 16.7% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).

Is CRNC a buy, sell or hold?

Cerence has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.14. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CRNC.

  • StrongBuy: 0
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 6
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CRNC price?
Analysts Target Price 10.8 26.2%
Cerence (CRNC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 01 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 374.6m (374.6m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 44.2478
P/S = 1.2398
P/B = 2.2644
Revenue TTM = 302.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 28.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 37.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 172.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.10m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 202.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 14.8m
Net Debt = 94.1m USD (calculated: Debt 202.4m - CCE 108.3m)
Enterprise Value = 468.7m USD (374.6m + Debt 202.4m - CCE 108.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.87 (Ebit TTM 28.1m / Interest Expense TTM 7.26m)
EV/FCF = 6.24x (Enterprise Value 468.7m / FCF TTM 75.1m)
FCF Yield = 16.02% (FCF TTM 75.1m / Enterprise Value 468.7m)
FCF Margin = 24.85% (FCF TTM 75.1m / Revenue TTM 302.1m)
Net Margin = -6.50% (Net Income TTM -19.6m / Revenue TTM 302.1m)
Gross Margin = 78.28% ((Revenue TTM 302.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 65.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 73.68% (prev 86.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.76 (Enterprise Value 468.7m / Total Assets 617.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.59% (Interest Expense 7.26m / Debt 202.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 22.2m (EBIT 28.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.90 (Total Current Assets 204.3m / Total Current Liabilities 107.3m)
Debt / Equity = 1.28 (Debt 202.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 158.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.49 (Net Debt 94.1m / EBITDA 37.8m)
Debt / FCF = 1.25 (Net Debt 94.1m / FCF TTM 75.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 153.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.06% (Net Income -19.6m / Total Assets 617.0m)
RoE = -12.77% (Net Income TTM -19.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 153.8m)
RoCE = 8.60% (EBIT 28.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 153.8m + L.T.Debt 172.7m))
RoIC = 4.45% (NOPAT 22.2m / Invested Capital 498.6m)
WACC = 14.49% (E(374.6m)/V(577.0m) * Re(20.79%) + D(202.4m)/V(577.0m) * Rd(3.59%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 20.79% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 11.80 | Cagr: -2.15%
[DCF] Terminal Value 60.70% ; FCFF base≈60.1m ; Y1≈68.9m ; Y5≈101.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 13.99 (EV 726.3m - Net Debt 94.1m = Equity 632.2m / Shares 45.2m; r=14.49% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -30.76 | Revenue CAGR: -4.86% | SUE: 1.29 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=-1.01% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=0.71 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+34.7% | GrowthRev=+25.3%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+7.9% | GrowthRev=-7.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=5, down=5)