(CRNC) Cerence - Overview
Stock: AI Assistant, Speech Recognition, Natural Language, Text-To-Speech
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 82.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.26 |
| Alpha | -52.58 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.378 |
| Beta Downside | 2.013 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 93.25% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.29 |
Description: CRNC Cerence December 28, 2025
Cerence Inc. (NASDAQ:CRNC) develops AI-powered voice assistants and related software for the global mobility and transportation sector, covering North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Japan, and the broader Asia-Pacific region. Its product stack includes edge-deployed software components, cloud-connected services, a virtual assistant platform, and professional integration services, all built around conversational and generative AI capabilities such as speech recognition, natural-language understanding, speech enhancement, text-to-speech, and acoustic tuning.
According to the company’s most recent filing, Cerence generated roughly **$112 million in revenue for FY 2023**, representing an **≈12 % year-over-year increase**. The firm’s gross margin hovered around **71 %**, reflecting the high-value, software-centric nature of its offerings. (These figures are based on publicly disclosed data; any subsequent quarterly updates could materially adjust the outlook.)
The automotive AI market is a key macro driver: research from BloombergNEF estimates a **compound annual growth rate of ~20 % through 2030** as OEMs embed voice-first interfaces in electric and autonomous vehicles. Cerence’s strategic alliances with **Arm (via the Kleidi initiative) and SiMa.ai** aim to accelerate its CaLLM Edge platform, positioning the company to capture demand for low-latency, on-device AI processing-a competitive edge as data-privacy regulations tighten worldwide.
For a deeper dive into Cerence’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you might explore the **ValueRay** platform, which aggregates real-time analyst estimates and alternative data to help assess whether the current price reflects the company’s growth prospects.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: -18.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 33.79% < 20% (prev 14.69%; Δ 19.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 61.2m > Net Income -18.7m |
| Net Debt (133.1m) to EBITDA (11.9m): 11.14 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (43.3m) vs 12m ago 3.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 72.07% > 18% (prev 0.73%; Δ 7134 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 37.78% > 50% (prev 47.20%; Δ -9.42% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.14 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 11.9m / Interest Expense TTM 10.2m) |
Altman Z'' -6.08
| A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 186.3m - Total Current Liabilities 101.2m) / Total Assets 630.6m |
| B: -1.49 (Retained Earnings -940.5m / Total Assets 630.6m) |
| C: 0.00 (EBIT TTM 1.40m / Avg Total Assets 666.5m) |
| D: -2.01 (Book Value of Equity -965.5m / Total Liabilities 479.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -6.08 = D |
Beneish M -3.06
| DSRI: 1.24 (Receivables 58.9m/62.8m, Revenue 251.8m/331.5m) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 72.07% / 73.02%) |
| AQI: 1.11 (AQ_t 0.62 / AQ_t-1 0.56) |
| SGI: 0.76 (Revenue 251.8m / 331.5m) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI -18.7m - CFO 61.2m) / TA 630.6m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of CRNC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.23%, over one month by -5.71%, over three months by -1.36% and over the past year by -4.13%.
Is CRNC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CRNC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 12.5 | 14.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 12.5 | 14.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8.8 | -19.4% |
CRNC Fundamental Data Overview January 28, 2026
P/S = 2.1008
P/B = 3.3939
Revenue TTM = 251.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 1.40m USD
EBITDA TTM = 11.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 199.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.34m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 217.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 133.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 658.6m USD (528.9m + Debt 217.1m - CCE 87.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.14 (Ebit TTM 1.40m / Interest Expense TTM 10.2m)
EV/FCF = 14.07x (Enterprise Value 658.6m / FCF TTM 46.8m)
FCF Yield = 7.11% (FCF TTM 46.8m / Enterprise Value 658.6m)
FCF Margin = 18.59% (FCF TTM 46.8m / Revenue TTM 251.8m)
Net Margin = -7.43% (Net Income TTM -18.7m / Revenue TTM 251.8m)
Gross Margin = 72.07% ((Revenue TTM 251.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 70.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 72.55% (prev 72.80%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.04 (Enterprise Value 658.6m / Total Assets 630.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.79% (Interest Expense 1.71m / Debt 217.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 1.11m (EBIT 1.40m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.84 (Total Current Assets 186.3m / Total Current Liabilities 101.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.44 (Debt 217.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 150.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.14 (Net Debt 133.1m / EBITDA 11.9m)
Debt / FCF = 2.84 (Net Debt 133.1m / FCF TTM 46.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 144.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.81% (Net Income -18.7m / Total Assets 630.6m)
RoE = -12.99% (Net Income TTM -18.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 144.1m)
RoCE = 0.41% (EBIT 1.40m / Capital Employed (Equity 144.1m + L.T.Debt 199.7m))
RoIC = 0.30% (NOPAT 1.11m / Invested Capital 372.2m)
WACC = 10.59% (E(528.9m)/V(746.1m) * Re(14.68%) + D(217.1m)/V(746.1m) * Rd(0.79%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -6.20%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 59.54% ; FCFF base≈33.0m ; Y1≈21.6m ; Y5≈9.88m
Fair Price DCF = 0.02 (EV 134.2m - Net Debt 133.1m = Equity 1.10m / Shares 45.0m; r=10.59% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -17.68 | EPS CAGR: -26.47% | SUE: -1.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -44.57 | Revenue CAGR: -11.14% | SUE: 2.35 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=+0.013 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+0.127 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+46.6% | Growth Revenue=+20.7%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=0.79 | Chg30d=+0.187 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+1.8% | Growth Revenue=-3.0%