(CRTO) Criteo - Overview
Stock: Retail Media, Performance Media, Commerce Data, AI Engine
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -19.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.99 |
| Alpha | -74.37 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.105 |
| Beta Downside | 1.410 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 63.29% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.28 |
Description: CRTO Criteo January 17, 2026
Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ: CRTO) is a Paris-based technology firm that sells marketing and monetization services across the open internet in North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and APAC. Its business is split between Retail Media - high-margin ad inventory sold on retailers’ own sites and on third-party properties - and Performance Media - programmatic buying that drives commerce activation for brands and agencies.
The core of Criteo’s offering is the Criteo Shopper Graph, which ingests proprietary commerce data (e.g., transaction logs) to power AI-driven solutions such as look-alike audiences, recommendation engines, predictive bidding, dynamic creative optimization, and sponsored-product placement. These capabilities run on a globally distributed data-synchronization and multi-layer caching infrastructure that supports real-time ad serving and an offline/online experimentation platform.
Recent financials (FY 2023) show revenue of $2.2 billion, a 5 % YoY increase driven largely by the Retail Media segment, which grew ~12 % as e-commerce spend shifted toward on-site advertising. Gross margin improved to 53 % from 48 % a year earlier, reflecting higher-margin retail-media contracts and cost efficiencies from the AI Engine. However, the Performance Media segment remains pressure-tested by a broader slowdown in programmatic ad spend and intensified competition from Google, Meta, and Amazon.
Key sector drivers include the continued expansion of e-commerce (global GMV projected to grow ~10 % CAGR through 2028), the migration of ad budgets from legacy display to performance-based and retail-media formats, and the adoption of AI for real-time bidding and personalization. Conversely, macro-economic headwinds-such as slower consumer spending in the U.S. and Europe-introduce uncertainty around short-term revenue growth.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, the ValueRay platform offers a granular, data-driven valuation model worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income: 168.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.80% < 20% (prev 8.51%; Δ 4.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 320.0m > Net Income 168.1m |
| Net Debt (-145.7m) to EBITDA (347.5m): -0.42 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.33 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (55.4m) vs 12m ago -5.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 53.81% > 18% (prev 0.49%; Δ 5332 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 91.64% > 50% (prev 88.14%; Δ 3.49% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 103.3 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 347.5m / Interest Expense TTM 2.22m) |
Altman Z'' 3.27
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 1.01b - Total Current Liabilities 755.1m) / Total Assets 2.06b |
| B: 0.32 (Retained Earnings 661.5m / Total Assets 2.06b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 229.7m / Avg Total Assets 2.14b) |
| D: 0.67 (Book Value of Equity 597.9m / Total Liabilities 891.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.27 = A |
Beneish M -3.28
| DSRI: 0.83 (Receivables 669.6m/797.9m, Revenue 1.96b/1.95b) |
| GMI: 0.92 (GM 53.81% / 49.25%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.40 / AQ_t-1 0.38) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 1.96b / 1.95b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 168.1m - CFO 320.0m) / TA 2.06b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.28 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of CRTO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.10%, over one month by -8.53%, over three months by -14.71% and over the past year by -58.18%.
Is CRTO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CRTO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35.8 | 86.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35.8 | 86.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 16.3 | -15.1% |
CRTO Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 4.3365
P/S = 0.5011
P/B = 0.867
P/EG = 0.8885
Revenue TTM = 1.96b USD
EBIT TTM = 229.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 347.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 109.3m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 27.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 109.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -145.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 811.1m USD (980.6m + Debt 109.3m - CCE 278.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 103.3 (Ebit TTM 229.7m / Interest Expense TTM 2.22m)
EV/FCF = 3.64x (Enterprise Value 811.1m / FCF TTM 222.9m)
FCF Yield = 27.49% (FCF TTM 222.9m / Enterprise Value 811.1m)
FCF Margin = 11.39% (FCF TTM 222.9m / Revenue TTM 1.96b)
Net Margin = 8.59% (Net Income TTM 168.1m / Revenue TTM 1.96b)
Gross Margin = 53.81% ((Revenue TTM 1.96b - Cost of Revenue TTM 903.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.61% (prev 53.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.39 (Enterprise Value 811.1m / Total Assets 2.06b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.60% (Interest Expense 657.0k / Debt 109.3m)
Taxrate = 22.34% (11.5m / 51.6m)
NOPAT = 178.4m (EBIT 229.7m * (1 - 22.34%))
Current Ratio = 1.33 (Total Current Assets 1.01b / Total Current Liabilities 755.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.10 (Debt 109.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.13b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.42 (Net Debt -145.7m / EBITDA 347.5m)
Debt / FCF = -0.65 (Net Debt -145.7m / FCF TTM 222.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.08b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.87% (Net Income 168.1m / Total Assets 2.06b)
RoE = 15.51% (Net Income TTM 168.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.08b)
RoCE = 19.26% (EBIT 229.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.08b + L.T.Debt 109.3m))
RoIC = 16.47% (NOPAT 178.4m / Invested Capital 1.08b)
WACC = 9.03% (E(980.6m)/V(1.09b) * Re(9.99%) + D(109.3m)/V(1.09b) * Rd(0.60%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 9.99% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.70%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.19% ; FCFF base≈206.3m ; Y1≈242.2m ; Y5≈367.8m
Fair Price DCF = 104.2 (EV 5.19b - Net Debt -145.7m = Equity 5.33b / Shares 51.2m; r=9.03% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 18.50% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 27.30 | EPS CAGR: -41.49% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -37.14 | Revenue CAGR: -8.42% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.93 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.59 | Chg30d=+0.004 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-1.6% | Growth Revenue=+1.4%