CSX Stock Analysis: CSX | NASDAQ
Railroads | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 86.214m USD | 12M Return: 35.1% | US1264081035 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 485M
EPS Trend: -69.6%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: -75.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
CSX Corporation provides rail-based freight transportation services across the United States and Canada through two operating segments: rail and trucking. The company transports a wide range of commodities including chemicals, agricultural and food products, minerals, automotive goods, forest products, fertilizers, metals, coal, and iron ore, serving customers such as electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers, and industrial facilities. It also offers intermodal services through approximately 30 terminals, handling manufactured consumer goods in containers and providing drayage services for the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments.
CSX operates an approximately 20,000 route-mile rail network serving 26 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, supported by a fleet of 3,400 locomotives. The company also supports non-rail-served customers by facilitating the transfer of products such as plastics and ethanol from rail to trucks, and provides specialized distribution and storage services to the automotive industry. Incorporated in 1978 and headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida, CSX is a major Class I railroad serving production and distribution facilities through direct track connections.
As a Class I freight railroad, CSX operates in a capital-intensive industry characterized by high barriers to entry, significant fixed infrastructure costs, and long-term competitive positioning based on route density and network reach. Rail transportation is generally more fuel-efficient than long-haul trucking, making it a cost-effective option for moving bulk commodities over long distances. Intermodal services, which combine rail with trucking for first- and last-mile delivery, represent a growing segment of the industry driven by supply chain shifts and e-commerce demand.
- Coal volume declines accelerate as utilities shift to gas
- Intermodal revenue grows on e-commerce and supply chain shifts
- Operating ratio improvement drives margin expansion
| Net Income: 3.22b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.13 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -5.14% < 20% (prev -4.79%; Δ -0.35% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 5.32b > Net Income 3.22b |
| Net Debt (18.5b) to EBITDA (6.70b): 2.75 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.86b) vs 12m ago -0.54% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.14% > 18% (prev 34.55%; Δ 3.59% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 33.11% > 50% (prev 32.97%; Δ 0.14% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.96 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.05b / Interest Expense TTM 847.0m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 3.41b - Total Current Liabilities 4.15b) / Total Assets 44.7b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 11.4b / Total Assets 44.7b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 5.05b / Avg Total Assets 43.8b) |
| D: 0.46 (Book Value of Equity 14.1b / Total Liabilities 30.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.97 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 1.46b/1.41b, Revenue 14.5b/14.2b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 34.55% / 38.14%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 14.5b / 14.2b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 3.22b - CFO 5.32b) / TA 44.7b) |
| Beneish M = -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 47.43 with a total of 10,691,604 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.39%, over one month by -2.51%, over three months by -2.72% and over the past year by +35.06%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 46.20 (which is 2.6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
CSX has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CSX.
- StrongBuy: 11
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 11
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 53.1 | 11.9% |
P/E Trailing = 26.9017
P/E Forward = 21.1864
P/S = 5.9409
P/B = 6.3012
P/EG = 1.7231
Revenue TTM = 14.5b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.05b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.70b USD
Long Term Debt = 17.2b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.70b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 19.9b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 493.0m
Net Debt = 18.5b USD (calculated: Debt 19.9b - CCE 1.39b)
Enterprise Value = 105b USD (86.2b + Debt 19.9b - CCE 1.39b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.96 (Ebit TTM 5.05b / Interest Expense TTM 847.0m)
EV/FCF = 51.54x (Enterprise Value 105b / FCF TTM 2.03b)
FCF Yield = 1.94% (FCF TTM 2.03b / Enterprise Value 105b)
FCF Margin = 14.00% (FCF TTM 2.03b / Revenue TTM 14.5b)
Net Margin = 22.21% (Net Income TTM 3.22b / Revenue TTM 14.5b)
Gross Margin = 38.14% ((Revenue TTM 14.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.98b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.27% (prev 47.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.34 (Enterprise Value 105b / Total Assets 44.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.27% (Interest Expense 847.0m / Debt 19.9b)
Taxrate = 23.28% (978.0m / 4.20b)
NOPAT = 3.87b (EBIT 5.05b * (1 - 23.28%))
Current Ratio = 0.82 (Total Current Assets 3.41b / Total Current Liabilities 4.15b)
Debt / Equity = 1.41 (Debt 19.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 14.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.75 (Net Debt 18.5b / EBITDA 6.70b)
Debt / FCF = 9.09 (Net Debt 18.5b / FCF TTM 2.03b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.4b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.35% (Net Income 3.22b / Total Assets 44.7b)
RoE = 24.06% (Net Income TTM 3.22b / Total Stockholder Equity 13.4b)
RoCE = 16.52% (EBIT 5.05b / Capital Employed (Equity 13.4b + L.T.Debt 17.2b))
RoIC = 9.32% (NOPAT 3.87b / Invested Capital 41.5b)
WACC = 7.48% (E(86.2b)/V(106b) * Re(8.45%) + D(19.9b)/V(106b) * Rd(4.27%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.45% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.08 | Cagr: -2.37%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.60% ; FCFF base≈2.02b ; Y1≈2.05b ; Y5≈2.22b
[DCF] Fair Price = 8.61 (EV 34.4b - Net Debt 18.5b = Equity 16.0b / Shares 1.85b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 1.25% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -69.60 | EPS CAGR: -4.08% | SUE: 1.64 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -75.47 | Revenue CAGR: -1.43% | SUE: 1.47 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.54 | Chg30d=-0.41% | Revisions=+79% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.01 | Chg30d=+0.05% | Revisions=+81% | GrowthEPS=+30.3% | GrowthRev=+7.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.28 | Chg30d=+0.37% | Revisions=+80% | GrowthEPS=+13.6% | GrowthRev=+5.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +92% (up=36, down=0)