(CTRN) Citi Trends - Ratings and Ratios
Apparel, Accessories, Home, Beauty, Seasonal
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 48.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 68.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.03% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.16 |
| Alpha | 73.37 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.26 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.428 |
| Beta | 1.371 |
| Beta Downside | 1.157 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 60.13% |
| Mean DD | 29.29% |
| Median DD | 30.86% |
Description: CTRN Citi Trends October 27, 2025
Citi Trends, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTRN) is a value-oriented retailer that sells fashion apparel, accessories, beauty items, and a broad range of home-goods to African-American and multicultural families across the United States. Its merchandise mix spans men’s, women’s and children’s clothing-including sportswear, sleepwear and uniforms-plus handbags, jewelry, footwear, home décor, tech accessories, seasonal items, books and toys.
Key operating metrics (FY 2023) show total revenue of approximately $1.2 billion, with comparable-store sales declining 2.5% year-over-year, reflecting the segment’s sensitivity to disposable-income pressures and elevated CPI levels. The chain operates roughly 1,200 stores, and its gross margin has compressed to about 30% due to higher freight costs and a shift toward lower-priced SKUs. The company’s balance sheet carries roughly $350 million of long-term debt, giving it a leverage ratio near 2.5× EBITDA.
Sector drivers that materially affect CTRN include the health of the U.S. lower-income consumer segment, which is highly responsive to employment trends, real-wage growth, and inflation-adjusted pricing power. Additionally, the broader apparel-retail industry is experiencing a gradual pivot to omnichannel models; Citi Trends’ e-commerce sales grew roughly 12% in 2023, but still represent under 5% of total revenue, indicating a sizable upside if digital adoption accelerates.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of CTRN’s valuation and risk profile, you may find it useful to explore the company’s metrics on ValueRay, where the platform aggregates real-time fundamentals and analyst sentiment to help you form a more informed view.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (-16.4m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 48.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.46pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 1.53% (prev 3.11%; Δ -1.58pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 (>3.0%) and CFO 3.03m > Net Income -16.4m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (166.9m) to EBITDA (17.8m) ratio: 9.37 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.07 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (8.05m) change vs 12m ago -3.66% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 37.84% (prev 35.39%; Δ 2.45pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 172.0% (prev 162.1%; Δ 9.86pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -0.64 (EBITDA TTM 17.8m / Interest Expense TTM 336.0k) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.92
| (A) 0.03 = (Total Current Assets 192.1m - Total Current Liabilities 179.8m) / Total Assets 464.3m |
| (B) 0.59 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 275.9m / Total Assets 464.3m |
| (C) -0.00 = EBIT TTM -216.0k / Avg Total Assets 465.7m |
| (D) 0.77 = Book Value of Equity 276.1m / Total Liabilities 356.4m |
| Total Rating: 2.92 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 29.54
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.69% |
| 3. FCF Margin -1.15% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.02 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 9.37 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -7.28)% |
| 7. RoE -14.80% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -24.19% |
| 9. EPS Trend -60.95% |
What is the price of CTRN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.83%, over one month by +18.24%, over three months by +20.99% and over the past year by +87.93%.
Is CTRN a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CTRN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 55.5 | 21.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 55.5 | 21.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 53.5 | 16.9% |
CTRN Fundamental Data Overview December 07, 2025
P/E Forward = 3.8066
P/S = 0.4747
P/B = 3.3746
P/EG = 1.08
Beta = 2.163
Revenue TTM = 800.7m USD
EBIT TTM = -216.0k USD
EBITDA TTM = 17.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 220.4m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 43.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 218.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 166.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 547.0m USD (380.1m + Debt 218.0m - CCE 51.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.64 (Ebit TTM -216.0k / Interest Expense TTM 336.0k)
FCF Yield = -1.69% (FCF TTM -9.23m / Enterprise Value 547.0m)
FCF Margin = -1.15% (FCF TTM -9.23m / Revenue TTM 800.7m)
Net Margin = -2.05% (Net Income TTM -16.4m / Revenue TTM 800.7m)
Gross Margin = 37.84% ((Revenue TTM 800.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 497.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.53% (prev 37.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.18 (Enterprise Value 547.0m / Total Assets 464.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.04% (Interest Expense 91.0k / Debt 218.0m)
Taxrate = -15.63% (negative due to tax credits) (5.84m / -37.3m)
NOPAT = -249.8k (EBIT -216.0k * (1 - -15.63%)) [loss with tax shield] [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 1.07 (Total Current Assets 192.1m / Total Current Liabilities 179.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.02 (Debt 218.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 107.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.37 (Net Debt 166.9m / EBITDA 17.8m)
Debt / FCF = -18.09 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 166.9m / FCF TTM -9.23m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 110.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.53% (Net Income -16.4m / Total Assets 464.3m)
RoE = -14.80% (Net Income TTM -16.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 110.7m)
RoCE = -0.07% (EBIT -216.0k / Capital Employed (Equity 110.7m + L.T.Debt 220.4m))
RoIC = -0.22% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -249.8k / Invested Capital 111.7m)
WACC = 7.05% (E(380.1m)/V(598.1m) * Re(11.07%) + D(218.0m)/V(598.1m) * Rd(0.04%) * (1-Tc(-0.16)))
Discount Rate = 11.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 0.0 | Cagr: 0.0%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -9.23m)
EPS Correlation: -60.95 | EPS CAGR: -24.14% | SUE: -0.17 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -24.19 | Revenue CAGR: -5.22% | SUE: 2.69 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=-0.120 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=+0.285 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+213.6% | Growth Revenue=+5.2%
Additional Sources for CTRN Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle