CTRN Stock Analysis: Citi Trends | NASDAQ
Apparel Retail | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 406m USD | 12M Return: 37% | US17306X1028 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.60M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 92.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Citi Trends, Inc. (NASDAQ: CTRN) is a U.S.-based value retailer headquartered in Savannah, Georgia, specializing in discounted apparel, accessories, footwear, and home goods. Founded in 1946 as Allied Fashion, Inc., the company adopted the Citi Trends name in 2005 and went public the same year. Its merchandise spans womens, mens, and childrens clothing-including plus size, big & tall, and childrens uniforms-as well as fashion accessories, beauty products, footwear, and a rotating assortment of home goods and seasonal items.
The company operates within the Apparel Retail sub-industry of Consumer Discretionary, a sector characterized by thin margins, high inventory turnover, and intense competition from both off-price chains (such as TJX and Ross) and mass merchants. Citi Trends value-retail business model focuses on offering branded and trend-right merchandise at lower price points, typically targeting budget-conscious shoppers in underserved markets. As a small-cap retailer with a market capitalization of approximately $409 million, the company is significantly smaller than its primary national competitors, which shapes its regional concentration and sourcing strategy.
- Back-to-school same-store sales decline pressures quarterly revenue
- Low-income consumer spending weakens amid persistent inflation
- Apparel tariffs and freight costs squeeze gross margins
- Dollar General and Five Below intensify value retail competition
| Net Income: 7.34m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.35 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.74% < 20% (prev 2.79%; Δ -0.05% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 34.8m > Net Income 7.34m |
| Net Debt (169.0m) to EBITDA (27.3m): 6.19 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (8.48m) vs 12m ago 2.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.22% > 18% (prev 39.18%; Δ 0.04% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 184.2% > 50% (prev 171.1%; Δ 13.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 20.29 > 6 (EBIT TTM 7.16m / Interest Expense TTM 353k) |
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 203.3m - Total Current Liabilities 179.5m) / Total Assets 487.0m |
| B: 0.59 (Retained Earnings 287.9m / Total Assets 487.0m) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 7.16m / Avg Total Assets 472.2m) |
| D: 0.34 (Book Value of Equity 124.6m / Total Liabilities 362.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.71 = A |
| DSRI: 0.68 (Receivables 1.22m/1.61m, Revenue 870.0m/782.7m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 39.18% / 39.22%) |
| AQI: -31.48 (AQ_t -0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 870.0m / 782.7m) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 7.34m - CFO 34.8m) / TA 487.0m) |
| Beneish M = -22.47 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 48.70 with a total of 118,934 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.53%, over one month by -16.82%, over three months by -24.16% and over the past year by +36.95%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 45.40 (which is 6.8% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Citi Trends has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CTRN.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 91 | 86.9% |
P/E Trailing = 57.9762
P/E Forward = 3.643
P/S = 0.4668
P/B = 3.6102
P/EG = 2.8531
Revenue TTM = 870.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 7.16m USD
EBITDA TTM = 27.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 180.4m USD (estimated: total debt 224.8m - short term 44.5m)
Short Term Debt = 44.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 224.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 224.8m already included)
Net Debt = 169.0m USD (calculated: Debt 224.8m - CCE 55.9m)
Enterprise Value = 575.1m USD (406.1m + Debt 224.8m - CCE 55.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 20.29 (Ebit TTM 7.16m / Interest Expense TTM 353k)
EV/FCF = 88.53x (Enterprise Value 575.1m / FCF TTM 6.50m)
FCF Yield = 1.13% (FCF TTM 6.50m / Enterprise Value 575.1m)
FCF Margin = 0.75% (FCF TTM 6.50m / Revenue TTM 870.0m)
Net Margin = 0.84% (Net Income TTM 7.34m / Revenue TTM 870.0m)
Gross Margin = 39.22% ((Revenue TTM 870.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 528.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.01% (prev 39.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.18 (Enterprise Value 575.1m / Total Assets 487.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.16% (Interest Expense 353k / Debt 224.8m)
Taxrate = 2.05% (154k / 7.50m)
NOPAT = 7.01m (EBIT 7.16m * (1 - 2.05%))
Current Ratio = 1.13 (Total Current Assets 203.3m / Total Current Liabilities 179.5m)
Debt / Equity = 1.80 (Debt 224.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 124.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.19 (Net Debt 169.0m / EBITDA 27.3m)
Debt / FCF = 26.01 (Net Debt 169.0m / FCF TTM 6.50m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 118.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.55% (Net Income 7.34m / Total Assets 487.0m)
RoE = 6.19% (Net Income TTM 7.34m / Total Stockholder Equity 118.5m)
RoCE = 2.40% (EBIT 7.16m / Capital Employed (Equity 118.5m + L.T.Debt 180.4m))
RoIC = 2.27% (NOPAT 7.01m / Invested Capital 308.5m)
WACC = 7.10% (E(406.1m)/V(631.0m) * Re(10.95%) + D(224.8m)/V(631.0m) * Rd(0.16%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 10.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 37.23 | Cagr: 1.23%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈6.50m ; Y1≈6.52m ; Y5≈6.91m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 107.5m - Net Debt 169.0m = -61.5m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.29 | Revenue CAGR: 5.56% | SUE: 0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=-0.34 | Chg30d=-8.06% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=1.93 | Chg30d=+22.93% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+391.8% | GrowthRev=+10.9%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=2.81 | Chg30d=+18.11% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+45.3% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +22% (up=4, down=2)