CVCO Stock Analysis: Cavco Industries | NASDAQ
Residential Construction | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 4.521m USD | 12M Return: 24.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 65.0M
EPS Trend: 35.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 73.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Cavco Industries (CVCO) designs, produces, and retails factory-built homes primarily in the United States, operating through two segments: Factory-Built Housing and Financial Services. The company manufactures a diverse range of products including park model RVs, vacation cabins, modular homes (ranch, Cape Cod, split-level, and multi-story designs), multi-family units, and commercial structures such as apartment buildings, schools, and military housing. The manufactured and modular home industry serves as a key affordable housing segment in the U.S., often delivering completed homes at lower cost and in shorter build times compared to traditional site-built construction.
The Financial Services segment provides conforming and non-conforming mortgages, home-only loans, and property and casualty insurance to manufactured housing owners and retailers, reflecting a vertically integrated business model common among larger players in the factory-built housing sector. This integration allows the company to capture margin across the homes lifecycle-from manufacturing and retail distribution to financing and insurance.
Distribution occurs through a combination of company-owned retail stores and independent retailers, planned community operators, and residential developers. Founded in 1965 and headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, Cavco is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Homebuilding sub-industry.
- Affordability crisis drives record demand for factory-built homes
- Financial Services segment margins sensitive to mortgage rate volatility
- Lumber and material cost inflation pressures manufactured home gross margins
| Net Income: 190.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.40 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 21.80% < 20% (prev 30.12%; Δ -8.32% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 267.5m > Net Income 190.6m |
| Net Debt (-242.5m) to EBITDA (268.8m): -0.90 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.46 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (7.84m) vs 12m ago -3.44% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 23.47% > 18% (prev 23.10%; Δ 0.37% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 154.9% > 50% (prev 143.3%; Δ 11.63% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 224.9 > 6 (EBIT TTM 245.8m / Interest Expense TTM 1.09m) |
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 824.7m - Total Current Liabilities 335.4m) / Total Assets 1.49b |
| B: 0.93 (Retained Earnings 1.39b / Total Assets 1.49b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 245.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.45b) |
| D: 2.84 (Book Value of Equity 1.10b / Total Liabilities 388.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 9.31 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 184.2m/188.1m, Revenue 2.24b/2.02b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 23.10% / 23.47%) |
| AQI: 1.43 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.17) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 2.24b / 2.02b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 190.6m - CFO 267.5m) / TA 1.49b) |
| Beneish M = -2.81 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 561.83 with a total of 129,734 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.95%, over one month by -5.17%, over three months by +8.05% and over the past year by +24.16%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 534.40 (which is 4.9% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Cavco Industries has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CVCO.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 625 | 11.2% |
P/E Trailing = 24.4277
P/E Forward = 29.4985
P/S = 2.014
P/B = 4.1831
P/EG = 45.7667
Revenue TTM = 2.24b USD
EBIT TTM = 245.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 268.8m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 291k USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 30.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 30.7m already included)
Net Debt = -242.5m USD (calculated: Debt 30.7m - CCE 273.3m)
Enterprise Value = 4.28b USD (4.52b + Debt 30.7m - CCE 273.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 224.9 (Ebit TTM 245.8m / Interest Expense TTM 1.09m)
EV/FCF = 18.43x (Enterprise Value 4.28b / FCF TTM 232.1m)
FCF Yield = 5.43% (FCF TTM 232.1m / Enterprise Value 4.28b)
FCF Margin = 10.34% (FCF TTM 232.1m / Revenue TTM 2.24b)
Net Margin = 8.49% (Net Income TTM 190.6m / Revenue TTM 2.24b)
Gross Margin = 23.47% ((Revenue TTM 2.24b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.72b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.10% (prev 23.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.87 (Enterprise Value 4.28b / Total Assets 1.49b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.55% (Interest Expense 1.09m / Debt 30.7m)
Taxrate = 22.13% (54.1m / 244.7m)
NOPAT = 191.4m (EBIT 245.8m * (1 - 22.13%))
Current Ratio = 2.46 (Total Current Assets 824.7m / Total Current Liabilities 335.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 30.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.90 (Net Debt -242.5m / EBITDA 268.8m)
Debt / FCF = -1.04 (Net Debt -242.5m / FCF TTM 232.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.09b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.15% (Net Income 190.6m / Total Assets 1.49b)
RoE = 17.55% (Net Income TTM 190.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.09b)
RoCE = 21.27% (EBIT 245.8m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.49b - Current Liab 335.4m))
RoIC = 18.34% (NOPAT 191.4m / Invested Capital 1.04b)
WACC = 9.52% (E(4.52b)/V(4.55b) * Re(9.57%) + D(30.7m)/V(4.55b) * Rd(3.55%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 9.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.87 | Cagr: -3.18%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.26% ; FCFF base≈202.1m ; Y1≈231.6m ; Y5≈340.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 583.0 (EV 4.25b - Net Debt -242.5m = Equity 4.49b / Shares 7.71m; r=9.52% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 35.21 | EPS CAGR: 5.64% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 73.79 | Revenue CAGR: 6.64% | SUE: -0.90 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=5.55 | Chg30d=-3.41% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=5.96 | Chg30d=-7.38% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2027-03-31): EPS=23.95 | Chg30d=-4.19% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-0.1% | GrowthRev=+6.0%
EPS next Year (2028-03-31): EPS=29.40 | Chg30d=-2.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+22.8% | GrowthRev=+7.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -29% (up=1, down=3)