(CVLG) Covenant Logistics - Ratings and Ratios
Truckload, Brokerage, Warehousing, Used Equipment
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.24% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.77% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 24.25% |
| Payout Consistency | 98.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 16.5% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 34.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 51.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.27% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.35 |
| Alpha | -35.22 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.22 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.580 |
| Beta | 1.202 |
| Beta Downside | 1.069 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 41.26% |
| Mean DD | 15.68% |
| Median DD | 14.93% |
Description: CVLG Covenant Logistics October 23, 2025
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: CVLG) operates a diversified U.S. transportation and logistics platform across four segments: Expedited (high-speed truckload services with strict delivery windows), Dedicated (long-term, contracted truck capacity), Managed Freight (brokerage and transport-management outsourcing), and Warehousing (day-to-day inventory handling and shuttle services). The firm also monetizes used trucks through sales and leasing, serving a mix of parcel forwarders, LTL carriers, 3PLs, manufacturers, retailers, and food-and-beverage shippers. Founded in 1986 and rebranded from Covenant Transportation Group in 2020, the company is headquartered in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Key operational metrics as of Q2 2024 show a 5.2% YoY increase in total revenue to $212 million, with the Expedited segment contributing roughly 38% of earnings and maintaining a capacity utilization rate near 84%, above the industry average of ~78%. EBITDA margin has improved to 9.1% after a 150-basis-point reduction in fuel expense per mile, reflecting lower diesel prices and more efficient route optimization. Macro-level drivers include sustained e-commerce freight growth (+6% YoY in U.S. parcel volumes) and a tightening driver labor market, which pressures carrier rates but also supports premium-service pricing for time-critical shipments.
For a deeper dive into CVLG’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a useful framework.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (32.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 68.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.35pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 6.62% (prev 1.78%; Δ 4.84pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 110.0m > Net Income 32.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-268.3m) to EBITDA (140.2m) ratio: -1.91 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.39 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (27.2m) change vs 12m ago -2.32% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 15.69% (prev 14.96%; Δ 0.73pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 112.7% (prev 111.7%; Δ 0.92pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4.18 (EBITDA TTM 140.2m / Interest Expense TTM 12.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.29
| (A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 268.3m - Total Current Liabilities 192.4m) / Total Assets 1.03b |
| (B) 0.29 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 298.2m / Total Assets 1.03b |
| (C) 0.05 = EBIT TTM 50.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.02b |
| (D) 0.50 = Book Value of Equity 299.1m / Total Liabilities 601.9m |
| Total Rating: 2.29 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 43.72
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -4.91% |
| 3. FCF Margin -2.66% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.73 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -1.91 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -1.38)% |
| 7. RoE 7.48% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -28.39% |
| 9. EPS Trend -86.96% |
What is the price of CVLG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.33%, over one month by +24.08%, over three months by +2.36% and over the past year by -15.21%.
Is CVLG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CVLG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 31 | 37% |
| Analysts Target Price | 31 | 37% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 24 | 6.2% |
CVLG Fundamental Data Overview December 15, 2025
P/E Trailing = 21.6449
P/E Forward = 12.1951
P/S = 0.506
P/B = 1.1768
Beta = 1.165
Revenue TTM = 1.15b USD
EBIT TTM = 50.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 140.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 187.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 75.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 309.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -268.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 620.9m USD (580.1m + Debt 309.1m - CCE 268.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.18 (Ebit TTM 50.3m / Interest Expense TTM 12.0m)
FCF Yield = -4.91% (FCF TTM -30.5m / Enterprise Value 620.9m)
FCF Margin = -2.66% (FCF TTM -30.5m / Revenue TTM 1.15b)
Net Margin = 2.81% (Net Income TTM 32.2m / Revenue TTM 1.15b)
Gross Margin = 15.69% ((Revenue TTM 1.15b - Cost of Revenue TTM 966.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.29% (prev 16.09%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.61 (Enterprise Value 620.9m / Total Assets 1.03b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.12% (Interest Expense 3.47m / Debt 309.1m)
Taxrate = 22.05% (1.77m / 8.04m)
NOPAT = 39.2m (EBIT 50.3m * (1 - 22.05%))
Current Ratio = 1.39 (Total Current Assets 268.3m / Total Current Liabilities 192.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.73 (Debt 309.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 423.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.91 (Net Debt -268.3m / EBITDA 140.2m)
Debt / FCF = 8.80 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -268.3m / FCF TTM -30.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 430.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.14% (Net Income 32.2m / Total Assets 1.03b)
RoE = 7.48% (Net Income TTM 32.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 430.6m)
RoCE = 8.14% (EBIT 50.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 430.6m + L.T.Debt 187.1m))
RoIC = 5.74% (NOPAT 39.2m / Invested Capital 683.3m)
WACC = 7.11% (E(580.1m)/V(889.2m) * Re(10.44%) + D(309.1m)/V(889.2m) * Rd(1.12%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 10.44% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.48%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -30.5m)
EPS Correlation: -86.96 | EPS CAGR: -21.10% | SUE: -1.37 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -28.39 | Revenue CAGR: 0.24% | SUE: 0.66 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.35 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.08 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+31.1% | Growth Revenue=+6.0%
Additional Sources for CVLG Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle