ECPG Stock Analysis: Encore Capital | NASDAQ

Credit Services | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.098m USD | 12M Return: 131.2% | US2925541029 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Debt Recovery, Receivables Management, Collection Services, Credit Management
Total Rating 59
Safety 47
Buy Signal 0.69
Credit Services
Industry Rotation: -4.8
Market Cap: 2.10B
Avg Turnover: 34.7M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility42.7%
VaR 5th Pctl7.11%
VaR vs Median1.13%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio2.38
Rel. Str. IBD94.9
Rel. Str. Peer Group94.6
Character TTM
Beta1.237
Beta Downside0.868
Hurst Exponent0.417
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD49.21%
CAGR/Max DD0.56
CAGR/Mean DD2.21
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ECPG over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 3.11, "2021-12": 2.53, "2022-03": 6.4, "2022-06": 2.29, "2022-09": 1.22, "2022-12": -3.11, "2023-03": 0.91, "2023-06": 1.08, "2023-09": 0.72, "2023-12": -0.57, "2024-03": 1.02, "2024-06": 1.39, "2024-09": 1.26, "2024-12": -4.2631, "2025-03": 1.94, "2025-06": 2.52, "2025-09": 3.17, "2025-12": 3.4813, "2026-03": 3.91, "2026-06": 2.81,
Last SUE: -0.11
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of ECPG over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 412.624, 2021-12: 357.303, 2022-03: 499.682, 2022-06: 356.917, 2022-09: 307.752, 2022-12: 233.996, 2023-03: 312.63, 2023-06: 323.044, 2023-09: 309.619, 2023-12: 277.387, 2024-03: 328.386, 2024-06: 355.285, 2024-09: 367.071, 2024-12: 265.619, 2025-03: 392.775, 2025-06: 442.122, 2025-09: 460.353, 2025-12: 473.552, 2026-03: 472.935, 2026-06: 491.872,
Rev. CAGR: 19.66%
Rev. Trend: 96.4%
Last SUE: 0.70
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Rs Leader
Idiosyncratic Leader
Confidence

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -1.3% 5
Feb +3.1% 14
Mar -5.2% 9
Apr +3.6% 19
May +4.0% 19
Jun -2.5% 5
Jul +1.2% 8
Aug -0.2% 0
Sep -3.0% 29
Oct -3.1% 36
Nov +8.4% 41
Dec +0.7% 16

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: ECPG Encore Capital

Encore Capital Group (NASDAQ: ECPG) is a U.S.-based specialty finance company that operates in the debt buying and recovery industry, purchasing portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at significant discounts to face value from credit originators. The company works directly with consumers to establish repayment plans and rehabilitate their financial standing, while also offering complementary services such as early-stage collection, business process outsourcing, contingent collections, and credit management for non-performing loans.

The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Diego, California, and it operates within the Financials sector under the GICS Consumer Finance sub-industry. Its business model follows the standard distressed-debt purchasing framework, where returns are driven by the spread between acquisition cost and ultimate recoveries collected over the life of each portfolio.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • US portfolio collections improve as unemployment remains low
  • CFPB medical debt ruling pressures recovery economics
  • Interest rate environment lifts portfolio purchase yields
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.5
Net Income: 301.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.49 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 242.4% < 20% (prev -65.84%; Δ 308.2% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 151.3m > Net Income 301.6m
Net Debt (4.69b) to EBITDA (710.6m): 6.60 < 3
Current Ratio: 25.12 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (22.8m) vs 12m ago -3.34% < -2%
Gross Margin: 63.99% > 18% (prev 62.87%; Δ 1.12% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 35.30% > 50% (prev 28.27%; Δ 7.03% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.35 > 6 (EBIT TTM 682.5m / Interest Expense TTM 290.2m)
Altman Z'' 7.24
A: 0.83 (Total Current Assets 4.79b - Total Current Liabilities 190.8m) / Total Assets 5.57b
B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 1.21b / Total Assets 5.57b)
C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 682.5m / Avg Total Assets 5.38b)
D: 0.24 (Book Value of Equity 1.08b / Total Liabilities 4.49b)
Altman-Z'' = 7.24 = AAA
Beneish M -1.70
DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 4.61b/31.9m, Revenue 1.90b/1.47b)
GMI: 0.98 (GM 62.87% / 63.99%)
AQI: 0.13 (AQ_t 0.12 / AQ_t-1 0.92)
SGI: 1.29 (Revenue 1.90b / 1.47b)
TATA: 0.03 (NI 301.6m - CFO 151.3m) / TA 5.57b)
Beneish M = -1.70 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC
What is the price of ECPG shares?

As of September 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 96.55 with a total of 545,311 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.59%, over one month by +0.28%, over three months by +23.64% and over the past year by +131.20%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 90.10 (which is 6.7% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).

Is ECPG a buy, sell or hold?

Encore Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.40. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ECPG.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ECPG price?
Analysts Target Price 115.7 19.8%
Encore Capital (ECPG) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 30 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 2.10b (2.10b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 7.5182
P/E Forward = 5.5432
P/S = 1.1038
P/B = 2.0055
P/EG = 0.1692
Revenue TTM = 1.90b USD
EBIT TTM = 682.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 710.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.49b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 691.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.87b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 448k
Net Debt = 4.69b USD (calculated: Debt 4.87b - CCE 182.9m)
Enterprise Value = 6.79b USD (2.10b + Debt 4.87b - CCE 182.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.35 (Ebit TTM 682.5m / Interest Expense TTM 290.2m)
EV/FCF = 52.21x (Enterprise Value 6.79b / FCF TTM 130.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.92% (FCF TTM 130.0m / Enterprise Value 6.79b)
FCF Margin = 6.85% (FCF TTM 130.0m / Revenue TTM 1.90b)
Net Margin = 15.88% (Net Income TTM 301.6m / Revenue TTM 1.90b)
Gross Margin = 63.99% ((Revenue TTM 1.90b - Cost of Revenue TTM 683.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.00% (prev 69.53%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.22 (Enterprise Value 6.79b / Total Assets 5.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.96% (Interest Expense 290.2m / Debt 4.87b)
Taxrate = 23.12% (90.7m / 392.3m)
NOPAT = 524.7m (EBIT 682.5m * (1 - 23.12%))
Current Ratio = 25.12 (Total Current Assets 4.79b / Total Current Liabilities 190.8m)
Debt / Equity = 4.52 (Debt 4.87b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.08b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.60 (Net Debt 4.69b / EBITDA 710.6m)
Debt / FCF = 36.07 (Net Debt 4.69b / FCF TTM 130.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.61% (Net Income 301.6m / Total Assets 5.57b)
RoE = 29.83% (Net Income TTM 301.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.01b)
RoCE = 15.17% (EBIT 682.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.01b + L.T.Debt 3.49b))
RoIC = 8.79% (NOPAT 524.7m / Invested Capital 5.97b)
WACC = 6.31% (E(2.10b)/V(6.97b) * Re(10.33%) + D(4.87b)/V(6.97b) * Rd(5.96%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 10.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -90.80 | Cagr: -3.11%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈116.4m ; Y1≈133.4m ; Y5≈196.4m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.96b - Net Debt 4.69b = -1.73b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.44 | Revenue CAGR: 19.66% | SUE: 0.70 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.35 | Chg30d=+5.38% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.52 | Chg30d=+4.01% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+23.9% | GrowthRev=+8.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.62 | Chg30d=+3.59% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+8.2% | GrowthRev=+1.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +62% (up=5, down=0)