(ECPG) Encore Capital - Ratings and Ratios
Debt, Portfolios, Collections, Consumer, Recovery
ECPG EPS (Earnings per Share)
ECPG Revenue
Description: ECPG Encore Capital
Encore Capital Group (ECPG) operates as a specialty consumer‑finance firm that purchases and manages non‑performing consumer debt portfolios, primarily in the United States. Its core revenue engine is the net interest and fee income generated from collecting on purchased receivables, with performance measured by portfolio growth, net charge‑off rates, and cash‑flow conversion efficiency.
Key performance indicators include net earnings per share (EPS), which has been volatile due to the high‑risk nature of sub‑prime assets, and the net charge‑off ratio, a direct gauge of portfolio quality. Recent quarterly filings show a charge‑off ratio near 7‑8%, reflecting heightened delinquency in the backdrop of rising unemployment and tighter credit conditions. Cash‑flow from operations remains the primary source of liquidity, with free cash flow conversion rates typically exceeding 70% of net earnings, enabling aggressive portfolio acquisitions and dividend payouts.
Economic drivers are dominated by macro‑level credit cycle dynamics: Federal Reserve interest‑rate policy directly influences the cost of capital and the discount rates applied to debt purchases, while consumer discretionary spending trends affect the underlying ability of borrowers to repay. Elevated inflation and a decelerating labor market increase default risk, pressuring recoveries and compressing margins. Conversely, a stable or falling rate environment can improve net interest margins and support portfolio expansion.
Regulatory risk is material; the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and state‑level licensing regimes impose compliance costs and can restrict acquisition strategies. Operational efficiency is tracked through the expense‑to‑revenue ratio, which Encore has kept under 30% historically, and the average days to collect (DTC), currently hovering around 150 days—benchmarking against industry peers for collection effectiveness.
ECPG Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 947m |
| Sub-Industry | Consumer Finance |
| IPO / Inception | 1999-06-30 |
ECPG Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | -27.9% |
| Fundamental | 62.2% |
| Dividend Rating | - |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -27.9% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.40 of 5 |
ECPG Dividends
Currently no dividends paidECPG Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 47.5% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | -58.7% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | -10.5% |
| CAGR 5y | -1.86% |
| CAGR/Max DD 5y | -0.03 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | -0.58 |
| Alpha | -31.44 |
| Beta | 0.874 |
| Volatility | 34.59% |
| Current Volume | 283.6k |
| Average Volume 20d | 284.5k |
| Stop Loss | 40.5 (-3.2%) |
| Signal | 0.80 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (-89.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 88.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.65pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 282.3% (prev 9.63%; Δ 272.7pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 (>3.0%) and CFO 124.3m > Net Income -89.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-172.9m) to EBITDA (100.6m) ratio: -1.72 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 20.30 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (23.6m) change vs 12m ago -2.15% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 68.14% (prev 52.48%; Δ 15.66pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 29.33% (prev 26.31%; Δ 3.01pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.24 (EBITDA TTM 100.6m / Interest Expense TTM 283.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 6.18
| (A) 0.80 = (Total Current Assets 4.36b - Total Current Liabilities 214.7m) / Total Assets 5.19b |
| (B) 0.20 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.02b / Total Assets 5.19b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 68.8m / Avg Total Assets 5.00b |
| (D) 0.21 = Book Value of Equity 896.0m / Total Liabilities 4.30b |
| Total Rating: 6.18 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 62.17
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt = -2.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 2.03% = 1.01 |
| 3. FCF Margin 6.54% = 1.64 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 4.42 = -2.34 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 39.41 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC 8.26% = 10.32 |
| 7. RoE -10.10% = -1.68 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 63.21% = 3.16 |
| 9. Rev. CAGR 14.08% = 1.76 |
| 10. EPS Trend 12.05% = 0.30 |
| 11. EPS CAGR 29.82% = 2.50 |
What is the price of ECPG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.97%, over one month by +11.38%, over three months by +9.16% and over the past year by -15.61%.
Is Encore Capital a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ECPG is around 36.54 USD . This means that ECPG is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -12.67%.
Is ECPG a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ECPG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 57.3 | 36.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 57.3 | 36.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 41 | -2% |
Last update: 2025-08-20 02:49
ECPG Fundamental Data Overview
CCE Cash And Equivalents = 172.9m USD (Cash And Short Term Investments, last quarter)
P/E Forward = 5.5432
P/S = 0.6451
P/B = 1.042
P/EG = 0.1692
Beta = 1.594
Revenue TTM = 1.47b USD
EBIT TTM = 68.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 100.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.96b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 999.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.96b USD (Calculated: Short Term 999.7m + Long Term 2.96b)
Net Debt = -172.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.74b USD (946.7m + Debt 3.96b - CCE 172.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.24 (Ebit TTM 68.8m / Interest Expense TTM 283.6m)
FCF Yield = 2.03% (FCF TTM 96.0m / Enterprise Value 4.74b)
FCF Margin = 6.54% (FCF TTM 96.0m / Revenue TTM 1.47b)
Net Margin = -6.07% (Net Income TTM -89.1m / Revenue TTM 1.47b)
Gross Margin = 68.14% ((Revenue TTM 1.47b - Cost of Revenue TTM 467.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.29 (Enterprise Value 4.74b / Book Value Of Equity 896.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.87% (Interest Expense 73.9m / Debt 3.96b)
Taxrate = -24.73% (set to none) (from quarterly Income Tax Expense: -19.3m / 78.0m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 20.30 (Total Current Assets 4.36b / Total Current Liabilities 214.7m)
Debt / Equity = 4.42 (Debt 3.96b / last Quarter total Stockholder Equity 896.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 39.41 (Net Debt -172.9m / EBITDA 100.6m)
Debt / FCF = 41.30 (Debt 3.96b / FCF TTM 96.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 882.6m (last 4 quarters mean)
RoA = -1.72% (Net Income -89.1m, Total Assets 5.19b )
RoE = -10.10% (Net Income TTM -89.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 882.6m)
RoCE = 1.79% (Ebit 68.8m / (Equity 882.6m + L.T.Debt 2.96b))
RoIC = 8.26% (Ebit 68.8m / (Assets 5.19b - Current Assets 4.36b))
WACC = unknown (E(946.7m)/V(4.91b) * Re(9.24%)) + (D(3.96b)/V(4.91b) * Rd(1.87%) * (1-Tc(none)))
Shares Correlation 5-Years: -30.0 | Cagr: -5.88%
Discount Rate = 9.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 69.85% ; FCFE base≈105.8m ; Y1≈84.8m ; Y5≈57.8m
Fair Price DCF = 38.14 (DCF Value 877.8m / Shares Outstanding 23.0m; 5y FCF grow -23.79% → 3.0% )
Revenue Correlation: 63.21 | Revenue CAGR: 14.08%
Rev Growth-of-Growth: 6.64
EPS Correlation: 12.05 | EPS CAGR: 29.82%
EPS Growth-of-Growth: 77.99
Additional Sources for ECPG Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle