ECPG Stock Analysis: Encore Capital | NASDAQ
Credit Services | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.943m USD | 12M Return: 124.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 30.4M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 94.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Encore Capital Group (NASDAQ: ECPG) is a U.S.-based specialty finance company that operates in the debt buying and recovery industry, purchasing portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at significant discounts to face value from credit originators. The company works directly with consumers to establish repayment plans and rehabilitate their financial standing, while also offering complementary services such as early-stage collection, business process outsourcing, contingent collections, and credit management for non-performing loans.
The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Diego, California, and it operates within the Financials sector under the GICS Consumer Finance sub-industry. Its business model follows the standard distressed-debt purchasing framework, where returns are driven by the spread between acquisition cost and ultimate recoveries collected over the life of each portfolio.
- US portfolio collections improve as unemployment remains low
- CFPB medical debt ruling pressures recovery economics
- Interest rate environment lifts portfolio purchase yields
| Net Income: 296.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.61 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -33.97% < 20% (prev -66.06%; Δ 32.08% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 190.2m > Net Income 296.3m |
| Net Debt (3.81b) to EBITDA (702.5m): 5.42 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.33 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (22.3m) vs 12m ago -8.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 73.15% > 18% (prev 56.15%; Δ 17.00% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 35.49% > 50% (prev 27.78%; Δ 7.70% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.35 > 6 (EBIT TTM 674.3m / Interest Expense TTM 286.8m) |
| A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 305.4m - Total Current Liabilities 933.5m) / Total Assets 5.45b |
| B: 0.21 (Retained Earnings 1.17b / Total Assets 5.45b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 674.3m / Avg Total Assets 5.21b) |
| D: 0.23 (Book Value of Equity 1.03b / Total Liabilities 4.42b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.06 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 30.5m/3.95b, Revenue 1.85b/1.38b) |
| GMI: 0.77 (GM 56.15% / 73.15%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.92 / AQ_t-1 0.92) |
| SGI: 1.34 (Revenue 1.85b / 1.38b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 296.3m - CFO 190.2m) / TA 5.45b) |
| Beneish M = -3.73 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 91.86 with a total of 389,044 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.06%, over one month by +11.25%, over three months by +20.30% and over the past year by +124.05%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 88.10 (which is 4.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Encore Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.40. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ECPG.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 113.3 | 23.4% |
P/E Trailing = 7.0569
P/E Forward = 4.0437
P/S = 1.0493
P/B = 1.8774
P/EG = 0.1721
Revenue TTM = 1.85b USD
EBIT TTM = 674.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 702.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.35b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 681.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.03b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 515k
Net Debt = 3.81b USD (calculated: Debt 4.03b - CCE 227.2m)
Enterprise Value = 5.75b USD (1.94b + Debt 4.03b - CCE 227.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.35 (Ebit TTM 674.3m / Interest Expense TTM 286.8m)
EV/FCF = 34.61x (Enterprise Value 5.75b / FCF TTM 166.1m)
FCF Yield = 2.89% (FCF TTM 166.1m / Enterprise Value 5.75b)
FCF Margin = 8.98% (FCF TTM 166.1m / Revenue TTM 1.85b)
Net Margin = 16.02% (Net Income TTM 296.3m / Revenue TTM 1.85b)
Gross Margin = 73.15% ((Revenue TTM 1.85b - Cost of Revenue TTM 496.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 69.53% (prev 93.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.05 (Enterprise Value 5.75b / Total Assets 5.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.11% (Interest Expense 286.8m / Debt 4.03b)
Taxrate = 23.53% (91.2m / 387.4m)
NOPAT = 515.6m (EBIT 674.3m * (1 - 23.53%))
Current Ratio = 0.33 (Total Current Assets 305.4m / Total Current Liabilities 933.5m)
Debt / Equity = 3.90 (Debt 4.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.03b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.42 (Net Debt 3.81b / EBITDA 702.5m)
Debt / FCF = 22.92 (Net Debt 3.81b / FCF TTM 166.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 965.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.69% (Net Income 296.3m / Total Assets 5.45b)
RoE = 30.70% (Net Income TTM 296.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 965.1m)
RoCE = 15.62% (EBIT 674.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 965.1m + L.T.Debt 3.35b))
RoIC = 10.10% (NOPAT 515.6m / Invested Capital 5.11b)
WACC = 7.33% (E(1.94b)/V(5.98b) * Re(11.25%) + D(4.03b)/V(5.98b) * Rd(7.11%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 11.25% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -64.44 | Cagr: -2.71%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈148.1m ; Y1≈169.8m ; Y5≈249.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.76b - Net Debt 3.81b = -46.3m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.48 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.88 | Revenue CAGR: 17.30% | SUE: 0.49 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.62 | Chg30d=-2.24% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.08 | Chg30d=-0.16% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.00 | Chg30d=-0.05% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+19.1% | GrowthRev=+4.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.11 | Chg30d=+6.68% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+8.6% | GrowthRev=+2.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +73% (up=8, down=0)