(ERAS) Erasca - Ratings and Ratios
Naporafenib, ERAS-007, ERAS-601, ERAS-801, ERAS-0015
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 74.5% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 114% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.62% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.70 |
| Alpha | 11.67 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.01 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.441 |
| Beta | 1.197 |
| Beta Downside | 1.441 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 75.63% |
| Mean DD | 45.77% |
| Median DD | 45.29% |
Description: ERAS Erasca December 28, 2025
Erasca, Inc. (NASDAQ: ERAS) is a clinical-stage precision-oncology firm that targets cancers driven by the RAS/MAPK signaling pathway. Its strategy centers on discovering, developing, and eventually commercializing small-molecule and antibody therapeutics that directly inhibit mutant RAS proteins or downstream effectors.
The lead candidate, naporafenib, is being evaluated in two Novartis-licensed trials: the SEACRAFT-2 pivotal Phase 3 study in patients with NRAS-mutated melanoma and the SEACRAFT-1 Phase 1b study focusing on NRAS Q61X melanoma. Successful read-outs could unlock a market estimated at > $1 billion for NRAS-mutated melanoma therapies, a segment with currently no FDA-approved options.
Beyond naporafenib, Erasca’s pipeline includes ERAS-0015 (a pan-RAS molecular glue), ERAS-4001 (a pan-KRAS inhibitor), and ERAS-12 (a biparatopic EGFR antibody) for RAS-altered solid tumors, as well as CNS-penetrant ERAS-801 for EGFR-mutant glioblastoma, oral ERK1/2 inhibitor ERAS-007, and oral SHP2 inhibitor ERAS-601. The company has partnered with Novartis (naporafenib), Katmai Pharmaceuticals (ERAS-801), and NiKang Therapeutics (ERAS-601), providing both development expertise and potential milestone financing.
From a financial perspective, Erasca reported cash and cash equivalents of roughly $150 million at the end of Q2 2024, giving it an estimated 18-month runway at current burn rates. The biotech sector’s R&D spend is rising at ~8 % YoY, driven by increasing investor appetite for precision-oncology assets, while the broader RAS-targeted drug market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12 % through 2030.
For a deeper dive into ERAS’s valuation metrics, consider checking ValueRay’s analyst notes.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income (-127.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 251.8k TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.23 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.66pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 6464 % (prev 5379 %; Δ 1085 pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.23 (>3.0%) and CFO -98.3m > Net Income -127.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 10.45 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (283.7m) change vs 12m ago 25.57% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 41.83% (prev 30.43%; Δ 11.40pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 0.88% (prev 1.06%; Δ -0.17pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -91.37 (EBITDA TTM -125.9m / Interest Expense TTM -1.41m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -16.78
| (A) 0.65 = (Total Current Assets 299.9m - Total Current Liabilities 28.7m) / Total Assets 420.4m |
| (B) -2.05 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -863.1m / Total Assets 420.4m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -2.05 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.27 = EBIT TTM -129.1m / Avg Total Assets 474.6m |
| (D) -11.89 = Book Value of Equity -862.4m / Total Liabilities 72.5m |
| Total Rating: -16.78 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 35.37
| 1. Piotroski 1.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -12.88% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.14 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.17 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -36.68)% |
| 7. RoE -33.10% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 19.45% |
| 9. EPS Trend 58.81% |
What is the price of ERAS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.54%, over one month by +8.68%, over three months by +55.79% and over the past year by +35.96%.
Is ERAS a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ERAS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5.1 | 41.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5.1 | 41.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.2 | 15.2% |
ERAS Fundamental Data Overview January 01, 2026
P/B = 2.887
Beta = 1.169
Revenue TTM = 4.20m USD
EBIT TTM = -129.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -125.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 48.3m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.88m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 48.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -21.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 764.2m USD (1.00b + Debt 48.3m - CCE 288.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -91.37 (Ebit TTM -129.1m / Interest Expense TTM -1.41m)
FCF Yield = -12.88% (FCF TTM -98.4m / Enterprise Value 764.2m)
FCF Margin = -2346 % (FCF TTM -98.4m / Revenue TTM 4.20m)
Net Margin = -3043 % (Net Income TTM -127.7m / Revenue TTM 4.20m)
Gross Margin = 41.83% ((Revenue TTM 4.20m - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.44m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.82 (Enterprise Value 764.2m / Total Assets 420.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.92% (Interest Expense 3.83m / Debt 48.3m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -102.0m (EBIT -129.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 10.45 (Total Current Assets 299.9m / Total Current Liabilities 28.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.14 (Debt 48.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 347.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.17 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -21.9m / EBITDA -125.9m)
Debt / FCF = 0.22 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -21.9m / FCF TTM -98.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 385.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -30.37% (Net Income -127.7m / Total Assets 420.4m)
RoE = -33.10% (Net Income TTM -127.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 385.8m)
RoCE = -29.74% (EBIT -129.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 385.8m + L.T.Debt 48.3m))
RoIC = -26.44% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -102.0m / Invested Capital 385.8m)
WACC = 10.24% (E(1.00b)/V(1.05b) * Re(10.43%) + D(48.3m)/V(1.05b) * Rd(7.92%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 53.38%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -98.4m)
EPS Correlation: 58.81 | EPS CAGR: 9.44% | SUE: 2.07 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 19.45 | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.11 | Chg30d=-0.007 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.46 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-68.6% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%
Additional Sources for ERAS Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle