(ERAS) Erasca - Overview
Stock: Naporafenib, ERAS-007, ERAS-601, ERAS-801, ERAS-0015
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 78.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.05% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.44 |
| Alpha | 555.19 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.065 |
| Beta Downside | 1.729 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 72.82% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.65 |
Description: ERAS Erasca December 28, 2025
Erasca, Inc. (NASDAQ: ERAS) is a clinical-stage precision-oncology firm that targets cancers driven by the RAS/MAPK signaling pathway. Its strategy centers on discovering, developing, and eventually commercializing small-molecule and antibody therapeutics that directly inhibit mutant RAS proteins or downstream effectors.
The lead candidate, naporafenib, is being evaluated in two Novartis-licensed trials: the SEACRAFT-2 pivotal Phase 3 study in patients with NRAS-mutated melanoma and the SEACRAFT-1 Phase 1b study focusing on NRAS Q61X melanoma. Successful read-outs could unlock a market estimated at > $1 billion for NRAS-mutated melanoma therapies, a segment with currently no FDA-approved options.
Beyond naporafenib, Erasca’s pipeline includes ERAS-0015 (a pan-RAS molecular glue), ERAS-4001 (a pan-KRAS inhibitor), and ERAS-12 (a biparatopic EGFR antibody) for RAS-altered solid tumors, as well as CNS-penetrant ERAS-801 for EGFR-mutant glioblastoma, oral ERK1/2 inhibitor ERAS-007, and oral SHP2 inhibitor ERAS-601. The company has partnered with Novartis (naporafenib), Katmai Pharmaceuticals (ERAS-801), and NiKang Therapeutics (ERAS-601), providing both development expertise and potential milestone financing.
From a financial perspective, Erasca reported cash and cash equivalents of roughly $150 million at the end of Q2 2024, giving it an estimated 18-month runway at current burn rates. The biotech sector’s R&D spend is rising at ~8 % YoY, driven by increasing investor appetite for precision-oncology assets, while the broader RAS-targeted drug market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 12 % through 2030.
For a deeper dive into ERAS’s valuation metrics, consider checking ValueRay’s analyst notes.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: -127.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.23 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.66 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6464 % < 20% (prev 5379 %; Δ 1085 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.23 > 3% & CFO -98.3m > Net Income -127.7m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 10.45 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (283.7m) vs 12m ago 25.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.83% > 18% (prev 0.30%; Δ 4152 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 0.88% > 50% (prev 1.06%; Δ -0.17% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -91.37 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -125.9m / Interest Expense TTM -1.41m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.65 (Total Current Assets 299.9m - Total Current Liabilities 28.7m) / Total Assets 420.4m |
| B: -2.05 (Retained Earnings -863.1m / Total Assets 420.4m) |
| C: -0.27 (EBIT TTM -129.1m / Avg Total Assets 474.6m) |
| D: -11.89 (Book Value of Equity -862.4m / Total Liabilities 72.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -16.78 = D |
Beneish M -3.23
| DSRI: 1.61 (Receivables 2.90m/2.40m, Revenue 4.20m/5.58m) |
| GMI: 0.73 (GM 41.83% / 30.43%) |
| AQI: 0.65 (AQ_t 0.18 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 0.75 (Revenue 4.20m / 5.58m) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI -127.7m - CFO -98.3m) / TA 420.4m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.23 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ERAS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +15.83%, over one month by +111.53%, over three months by +436.68% and over the past year by +649.39%.
Is ERAS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ERAS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 11.6 | -5.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 11.6 | -5.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 12.3 | -0.1% |
ERAS Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
Revenue TTM = 4.20m USD
EBIT TTM = -129.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -125.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 48.3m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.88m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 48.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -21.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.44b USD (3.68b + Debt 48.3m - CCE 288.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -91.37 (Ebit TTM -129.1m / Interest Expense TTM -1.41m)
EV/FCF = -34.93x (Enterprise Value 3.44b / FCF TTM -98.4m)
FCF Yield = -2.86% (FCF TTM -98.4m / Enterprise Value 3.44b)
FCF Margin = -2346 % (FCF TTM -98.4m / Revenue TTM 4.20m)
Net Margin = -3043 % (Net Income TTM -127.7m / Revenue TTM 4.20m)
Gross Margin = 41.83% ((Revenue TTM 4.20m - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.44m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.18 (Enterprise Value 3.44b / Total Assets 420.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.92% (Interest Expense 3.83m / Debt 48.3m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -102.0m (EBIT -129.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 10.45 (Total Current Assets 299.9m / Total Current Liabilities 28.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.14 (Debt 48.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 347.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.17 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -21.9m / EBITDA -125.9m)
Debt / FCF = 0.22 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -21.9m / FCF TTM -98.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 385.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -26.90% (Net Income -127.7m / Total Assets 420.4m)
RoE = -33.10% (Net Income TTM -127.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 385.8m)
RoCE = -29.74% (EBIT -129.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 385.8m + L.T.Debt 48.3m))
RoIC = -26.44% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -102.0m / Invested Capital 385.8m)
WACC = 9.79% (E(3.68b)/V(3.73b) * Re(9.84%) + D(48.3m)/V(3.73b) * Rd(7.92%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.84% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 53.38%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -98.4m)
EPS Correlation: 58.81 | EPS CAGR: 9.44% | SUE: 2.13 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 19.45 | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.11 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.46 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=-49.0% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%