(ERIE) Erie Indemnity - Overview
Exchange: NASDAQ •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US29530P1021
Stock: Insurance, Underwriting, Policy, Sales, Support
Total Rating 50
Risk 95
Buy Signal -0.53
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.04% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.48% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 7.16% |
| Payout Consistency | 93.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 44.8% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 32.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.76% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.97 |
| Alpha | -37.55 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.331 |
| Beta Downside | 0.046 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 48.84% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.14 |
Description: ERIE Erie Indemnity January 02, 2026
Erie Indemnity Company (NASDAQ: ERIE) serves as the managing attorney-in-fact for policyholders in the Erie Insurance Exchange, delivering a full suite of insurance operations-including policy issuance and renewal, agent compensation, underwriting, claims processing, customer service, and IT support-across the U.S. market. The firm, founded in 1925 and headquartered in Erie, Pennsylvania, is classified under the Property & Casualty Insurance sub-industry.
Key performance indicators that investors watch include a combined ratio of roughly 92% (indicating underwriting profitability) and a return on equity (ROE) near 12% as of the latest fiscal year, both above the sector median. Erie’s earnings are sensitive to regional economic conditions, particularly personal auto and homeowners premiums, which tend to rise with employment growth and housing starts in the Midwest and Northeast. Additionally, the company’s relatively low expense ratio (~30%) reflects efficient cost management, a competitive advantage in a low-margin industry.
For a deeper, data-driven view of Erie’s valuation and risk profile, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 648.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.17 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.03% < 20% (prev 7.87%; Δ 6.16% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 708.6m > Net Income 648.0m |
| Net Debt (-568.6m) to EBITDA (815.8m): -0.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (52.7m) vs 12m ago 0.72% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 22.54% > 18% (prev 0.17%; Δ 2237 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 138.2% > 50% (prev 128.8%; Δ 9.46% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -11.60 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 815.8m / Interest Expense TTM -65.1m) |
Altman Z'' 9.81
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 1.50b - Total Current Liabilities 897.6m) / Total Assets 3.32b |
| B: 1.04 (Retained Earnings 3.47b / Total Assets 3.32b) |
| C: 0.24 (EBIT TTM 755.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.09b) |
| D: 3.41 (Book Value of Equity 3.46b / Total Liabilities 1.02b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 9.81 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.30
| DSRI: 0.91 (Receivables 791.4m/747.4m, Revenue 4.28b/3.69b) |
| GMI: 0.77 (GM 22.54% / 17.25%) |
| AQI: 0.85 (AQ_t 0.38 / AQ_t-1 0.45) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 4.28b / 3.69b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 648.0m - CFO 708.6m) / TA 3.32b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.30 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ERIE shares?
As of January 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 282.10 with a total of 214,283 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.14%, over one month by -1.34%, over three months by -6.06% and over the past year by -27.16%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.14%, over one month by -1.34%, over three months by -6.06% and over the past year by -27.16%.
Is ERIE a buy, sell or hold?
Erie Indemnity has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy ERIE.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ERIE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 115 | -59.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 115 | -59.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 271.5 | -3.8% |
ERIE Fundamental Data Overview January 29, 2026
P/E Trailing = 21.9758
P/S = 3.5267
P/B = 6.3537
P/EG = 3.05
Revenue TTM = 4.28b USD
EBIT TTM = 755.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 815.8m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 7.51m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.51m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -568.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 13.63b USD (14.25b + Debt 7.51m - CCE 628.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -11.60 (Ebit TTM 755.0m / Interest Expense TTM -65.1m)
EV/FCF = 23.62x (Enterprise Value 13.63b / FCF TTM 577.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.23% (FCF TTM 577.0m / Enterprise Value 13.63b)
FCF Margin = 13.49% (FCF TTM 577.0m / Revenue TTM 4.28b)
Net Margin = 15.15% (Net Income TTM 648.0m / Revenue TTM 4.28b)
Gross Margin = 22.54% ((Revenue TTM 4.28b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.31b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.22% (prev 18.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.10 (Enterprise Value 13.63b / Total Assets 3.32b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 18.57% (Interest Expense 1.40m / Debt 7.51m)
Taxrate = 21.44% (49.9m / 232.8m)
NOPAT = 593.1m (EBIT 755.0m * (1 - 21.44%))
Current Ratio = 1.67 (Total Current Assets 1.50b / Total Current Liabilities 897.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 7.51m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.31b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.70 (Net Debt -568.6m / EBITDA 815.8m)
Debt / FCF = -0.99 (Net Debt -568.6m / FCF TTM 577.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.94% (Net Income 648.0m / Total Assets 3.32b)
RoE = 30.32% (Net Income TTM 648.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.14b)
RoCE = 31.11% (EBIT 755.0m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 3.32b - Current Liab 897.6m))
RoIC = 27.75% (NOPAT 593.1m / Invested Capital 2.14b)
WACC = 7.14% (E(14.25b)/V(14.26b) * Re(7.14%) + D(7.51m)/V(14.26b) * Rd(18.57%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.83% ; FCFF base≈533.2m ; Y1≈603.4m ; Y5≈818.4m
Fair Price DCF = 379.6 (EV 16.96b - Net Debt -568.6m = Equity 17.53b / Shares 46.2m; r=7.14% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.35% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 17.97 | EPS CAGR: -39.68% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.48 | Revenue CAGR: 21.11% | SUE: 2.90 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.16 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=14.01 | Chg30d=-0.480 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+11.3% | Growth Revenue=+5.8%
P/S = 3.5267
P/B = 6.3537
P/EG = 3.05
Revenue TTM = 4.28b USD
EBIT TTM = 755.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 815.8m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 7.51m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.51m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -568.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 13.63b USD (14.25b + Debt 7.51m - CCE 628.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -11.60 (Ebit TTM 755.0m / Interest Expense TTM -65.1m)
EV/FCF = 23.62x (Enterprise Value 13.63b / FCF TTM 577.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.23% (FCF TTM 577.0m / Enterprise Value 13.63b)
FCF Margin = 13.49% (FCF TTM 577.0m / Revenue TTM 4.28b)
Net Margin = 15.15% (Net Income TTM 648.0m / Revenue TTM 4.28b)
Gross Margin = 22.54% ((Revenue TTM 4.28b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.31b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.22% (prev 18.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.10 (Enterprise Value 13.63b / Total Assets 3.32b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 18.57% (Interest Expense 1.40m / Debt 7.51m)
Taxrate = 21.44% (49.9m / 232.8m)
NOPAT = 593.1m (EBIT 755.0m * (1 - 21.44%))
Current Ratio = 1.67 (Total Current Assets 1.50b / Total Current Liabilities 897.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 7.51m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.31b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.70 (Net Debt -568.6m / EBITDA 815.8m)
Debt / FCF = -0.99 (Net Debt -568.6m / FCF TTM 577.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.94% (Net Income 648.0m / Total Assets 3.32b)
RoE = 30.32% (Net Income TTM 648.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.14b)
RoCE = 31.11% (EBIT 755.0m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 3.32b - Current Liab 897.6m))
RoIC = 27.75% (NOPAT 593.1m / Invested Capital 2.14b)
WACC = 7.14% (E(14.25b)/V(14.26b) * Re(7.14%) + D(7.51m)/V(14.26b) * Rd(18.57%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.83% ; FCFF base≈533.2m ; Y1≈603.4m ; Y5≈818.4m
Fair Price DCF = 379.6 (EV 16.96b - Net Debt -568.6m = Equity 17.53b / Shares 46.2m; r=7.14% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.35% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 17.97 | EPS CAGR: -39.68% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.48 | Revenue CAGR: 21.11% | SUE: 2.90 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.16 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=14.01 | Chg30d=-0.480 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+11.3% | Growth Revenue=+5.8%