ERIE Stock Analysis: Erie Indemnity | NASDAQ
Insurance Brokers | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 11.387m USD | 12M Return: -29.1% | US29530P1021 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 40.3M
EPS Trend: 93.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 96.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Erie Indemnity Company (NASDAQ: ERIE) serves as the managing attorney-in-fact for subscribers of the Erie Insurance Exchange, a reciprocal insurance exchange based in the United States. The company provides a suite of management services to the Exchange, including policy issuance and renewal, agent compensation and sales/advertising support, underwriting and policy processing, customer service, administrative support, and information technology services. Incorporated in 1925 and headquartered in Erie, Pennsylvania, the company has been publicly traded since its October 1995 IPO and is classified within the Property & Casualty Insurance sub-industry of the Financials sector.
The attorney-in-fact structure is a hallmark of the reciprocal insurance exchange model, in which policyholders (subscribers) are both customers and owners of the exchange, while a managing entity like Erie Indemnity handles day-to-day operations in exchange for a contractual fee. Property & Casualty insurers typically underwrite personal lines such as auto and homeowners coverage as well as commercial lines, and they earn revenue primarily through underwriting profit and investment income on premiums collected.
- Exchange direct written premiums accelerate, boosting management fee revenue
- Auto insurance rate increases improve underwriting profitability
- Severe weather catastrophe losses pressure combined ratio
| Net Income: 577.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.48 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 5.78% < 20% (prev 8.52%; Δ -2.74% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 697.8m > Net Income 577.0m |
| Net Debt (-281.5m) to EBITDA (811.9m): -0.35 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.25 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (52.3m) vs 12m ago -0.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.53% > 18% (prev 17.15%; Δ -0.63% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 123.3% > 50% (prev 127.0%; Δ -3.74% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 1.21b - Total Current Liabilities 968.4m) / Total Assets 3.56b |
| B: 1.03 (Retained Earnings 3.66b / Total Assets 3.56b) |
| C: 0.22 (EBIT TTM 733.5m / Avg Total Assets 3.34b) |
| D: 2.26 (Book Value of Equity 2.47b / Total Liabilities 1.09b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 7.64 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 767.4m/781.1m, Revenue 4.12b/3.97b) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 17.15% / 16.53%) |
| AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.49 / AQ_t-1 0.45) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 4.12b / 3.97b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 577.0m - CFO 697.8m) / TA 3.56b) |
| Beneish M = -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 222.04 with a total of 151,387 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.10%, over one month by -8.33%, over three months by -9.80% and over the past year by -29.08%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 201.90 (which is 9.1% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).
Erie Indemnity has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ERIE.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 115 | -48.2% |
P/E Trailing = 19.7434
P/E Forward = 26.738
P/S = 2.7642
P/B = 4.9676
P/EG = 2.6718
Revenue TTM = 4.12b USD
EBIT TTM = 733.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 811.9m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (0.0)
Short Term Debt = 63.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 63.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -281.5m USD (calculated: Debt 63.2m - CCE 344.6m)
Enterprise Value = 11.1b USD (11.4b + Debt 63.2m - CCE 344.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 733.5m / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 20.08x (Enterprise Value 11.1b / FCF TTM 553.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.98% (FCF TTM 553.1m / Enterprise Value 11.1b)
FCF Margin = 13.42% (FCF TTM 553.1m / Revenue TTM 4.12b)
Net Margin = 14.00% (Net Income TTM 577.0m / Revenue TTM 4.12b)
Gross Margin = 16.53% ((Revenue TTM 4.12b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.73% (prev 14.52%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.12 (Enterprise Value 11.1b / Total Assets 3.56b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 63.2m)
Taxrate = 21.34% (156.5m / 733.5m)
NOPAT = 577.0m (EBIT 733.5m * (1 - 21.34%))
Current Ratio = 1.25 (Total Current Assets 1.21b / Total Current Liabilities 968.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 63.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.47b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.35 (Net Debt -281.5m / EBITDA 811.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.51 (Net Debt -281.5m / FCF TTM 553.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.35b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.26% (Net Income 577.0m / Total Assets 3.56b)
RoE = 24.52% (Net Income TTM 577.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.35b)
RoCE = 31.17% (EBIT 733.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.35b + L.T.Debt 0.0))
RoIC = 23.59% (NOPAT 577.0m / Invested Capital 2.45b)
WACC = 4.17% (E(11.4b)/V(11.5b) * Re(4.19%) + D(63.2m)/V(11.5b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 4.19% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -6.40 | Cagr: -0.32%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.17% ; FCFF base≈557.5m ; Y1≈550.7m ; Y5≈564.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 196.9 (EV 8.81b - Net Debt -281.5m = Equity 9.09b / Shares 46.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -1.94% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 93.33 | EPS CAGR: 17.82% | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.31 | Revenue CAGR: 10.48% | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.41 | Chg30d=-1.45% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.70 | Chg30d=+0.32% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+3.7% | GrowthRev=+2.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=+0.0% | GrowthRev=+0.0%