Overview Dividends

(ERIE) Erie Indemnity - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US29530P1021

Insurance, Underwriting, Policy, Sales, Support

Property & Casualty Insurance
Market Cap in USD: 14,741m
IPO / Inception: 1995-10-02
Return 12m vs S&P 500: -38.9%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS (Earnings per Share) of ERIE over the last years for every Quarter: "2020-12": 1.2, "2021-03": 1.41, "2021-06": 1.51, "2021-09": 1.72, "2021-12": 1.05, "2022-03": 1.31, "2022-06": 1.53, "2022-09": 1.61, "2022-12": 1.25, "2023-03": 1.65, "2023-06": 2.25, "2023-09": 2.51, "2023-12": 2.12, "2024-03": 2.38, "2024-06": 3.13, "2024-09": 3.06, "2024-12": 2.908, "2025-03": 2.6526, "2025-06": 3.3463, "2025-09": 3.5, "2025-12": 0,
EPS CAGR: -39.68%
EPS Trend: 18.0%
Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Revenue of ERIE over the last years for every Quarter: 2020-12: 609.252, 2021-03: 630.177, 2021-06: 680.03, 2021-09: 687.839, 2021-12: 635.931, 2022-03: 672.11, 2022-06: 726.143, 2022-09: 741.236, 2022-12: 700.635, 2023-03: 752.465, 2023-06: 839.87, 2023-09: 858.938, 2023-12: 817.667, 2024-03: 880.701, 2024-06: 990.438, 2024-09: 999.886, 2024-12: 924.09, 2025-03: 989.399, 2025-06: 1060.097, 2025-09: 1304.077, 2025-12: null,
Rev. CAGR: 21.11%
Rev. Trend: 95.5%
Last SUE: 2.90
Qual. Beats: 1

Dividends

Dividend Yield 1.95%
Yield on Cost 5y 2.37%
Yield CAGR 5y 7.16%
Payout Consistency 93.0%
Payout Ratio 44.8%
Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility 31.3%
Value at Risk 5%th 47.9%
Relative Tail Risk -6.82%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio -0.97
Alpha -36.56
CAGR/Max DD 0.14
Character TTM
Hurst Exponent 0.397
Beta 0.326
Beta Downside 0.051
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD 48.64%
Mean DD 16.53%
Median DD 12.09%

Description: ERIE Erie Indemnity January 02, 2026

Erie Indemnity Company (NASDAQ: ERIE) serves as the managing attorney-in-fact for policyholders in the Erie Insurance Exchange, delivering a full suite of insurance operations-including policy issuance and renewal, agent compensation, underwriting, claims processing, customer service, and IT support-across the U.S. market. The firm, founded in 1925 and headquartered in Erie, Pennsylvania, is classified under the Property & Casualty Insurance sub-industry.

Key performance indicators that investors watch include a combined ratio of roughly 92% (indicating underwriting profitability) and a return on equity (ROE) near 12% as of the latest fiscal year, both above the sector median. Erie’s earnings are sensitive to regional economic conditions, particularly personal auto and homeowners premiums, which tend to rise with employment growth and housing starts in the Midwest and Northeast. Additionally, the company’s relatively low expense ratio (~30%) reflects efficient cost management, a competitive advantage in a low-margin industry.

For a deeper, data-driven view of Erie’s valuation and risk profile, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard useful.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0

Net Income (648.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 256.7m TTM)
FCFTA 0.17 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.03pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)
NWC/Revenue 14.03% (prev 7.87%; Δ 6.16pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)
CFO/TA 0.21 (>3.0%) and CFO 708.6m > Net Income 648.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)
Net Debt (-568.6m) to EBITDA (815.8m) ratio: -0.70 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)
Current Ratio 1.67 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)
Outstanding Shares last Quarter (52.7m) change vs 12m ago 0.72% (target <= -2.0% for YES)
Gross Margin 22.54% (prev 17.25%; Δ 5.29pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)
Asset Turnover 138.2% (prev 128.8%; Δ 9.46pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)
Interest Coverage Ratio -11.60 (EBITDA TTM 815.8m / Interest Expense TTM -65.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 9.81

(A) 0.18 = (Total Current Assets 1.50b - Total Current Liabilities 897.6m) / Total Assets 3.32b
(B) 1.04 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 3.47b / Total Assets 3.32b
warn (B) unusual magnitude: 1.04 — check mapping/units
(C) 0.24 = EBIT TTM 755.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.09b
(D) 3.41 = Book Value of Equity 3.46b / Total Liabilities 1.02b
Total Rating: 9.81 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 85.47

1. Piotroski 7.0pt
2. FCF Yield 4.09%
3. FCF Margin 13.49%
4. Debt/Equity 0.00
5. Debt/Ebitda -0.70
6. ROIC - WACC (= 20.53)%
7. RoE 30.32%
8. Rev. Trend 95.48%
9. EPS Trend 17.97%

What is the price of ERIE shares?

As of January 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 285.36 with a total of 100,414 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.25%, over one month by +2.15%, over three months by -12.47% and over the past year by -27.68%.

Is ERIE a buy, sell or hold?

Erie Indemnity has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ERIE.
  • Strong Buy: 1
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ERIE price?

Issuer Target Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price 115 -59.7%
Analysts Target Price 115 -59.7%
ValueRay Target Price 268.3 -6%

ERIE Fundamental Data Overview January 09, 2026

P/E Trailing = 23.0499
P/S = 3.6483
P/B = 6.4658
P/EG = 3.05
Beta = 0.373
Revenue TTM = 4.28b USD
EBIT TTM = 755.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 815.8m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 7.51m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.51m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -568.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 14.12b USD (14.74b + Debt 7.51m - CCE 628.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -11.60 (Ebit TTM 755.0m / Interest Expense TTM -65.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.09% (FCF TTM 577.0m / Enterprise Value 14.12b)
FCF Margin = 13.49% (FCF TTM 577.0m / Revenue TTM 4.28b)
Net Margin = 15.15% (Net Income TTM 648.0m / Revenue TTM 4.28b)
Gross Margin = 22.54% ((Revenue TTM 4.28b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.31b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.22% (prev 18.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.25 (Enterprise Value 14.12b / Total Assets 3.32b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 18.57% (Interest Expense 1.40m / Debt 7.51m)
Taxrate = 21.44% (49.9m / 232.8m)
NOPAT = 593.1m (EBIT 755.0m * (1 - 21.44%))
Current Ratio = 1.67 (Total Current Assets 1.50b / Total Current Liabilities 897.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 7.51m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.31b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.70 (Net Debt -568.6m / EBITDA 815.8m)
Debt / FCF = -0.99 (Net Debt -568.6m / FCF TTM 577.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.94% (Net Income 648.0m / Total Assets 3.32b)
RoE = 30.32% (Net Income TTM 648.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.14b)
RoCE = 31.11% (EBIT 755.0m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 3.32b - Current Liab 897.6m))
RoIC = 27.75% (NOPAT 593.1m / Invested Capital 2.14b)
WACC = 7.22% (E(14.74b)/V(14.75b) * Re(7.22%) + D(7.51m)/V(14.75b) * Rd(18.57%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.91% ; FCFF base≈533.2m ; Y1≈603.5m ; Y5≈820.4m
Fair Price DCF = 380.9 (EV 17.02b - Net Debt -568.6m = Equity 17.59b / Shares 46.2m; r=7.22% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.35% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 17.97 | EPS CAGR: -39.68% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.48 | Revenue CAGR: 21.11% | SUE: 2.90 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.16 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=14.01 | Chg30d=-0.480 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+11.3% | Growth Revenue=+5.8%

Additional Sources for ERIE Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle