Overview Dividends

(ERIE) Erie Indemnity - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NASDAQ • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US29530P1021

Insurance, Services, Underwriting, Claims

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS (Earnings per Share) of ERIE over the last years for every Quarter: "2020-09": 1.71, "2020-12": 1.2, "2021-03": 1.41, "2021-06": 1.51, "2021-09": 1.72, "2021-12": 1.05, "2022-03": 1.31, "2022-06": 1.53, "2022-09": 1.61, "2022-12": 1.25, "2023-03": 1.65, "2023-06": 2.25, "2023-09": 2.51, "2023-12": 2.12, "2024-03": 2.38, "2024-06": 3.13, "2024-09": 3.06, "2024-12": 2.908, "2025-03": 2.6526, "2025-06": 3.3463, "2025-09": 3.5,
EPS Growth (3y CAGR): 45.41%
EPS Trend (3y Corr): 87.3%
Last SUE: 0.47σ
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Revenue of ERIE over the last years for every Quarter: 2020-09: 653.481, 2020-12: 609.252, 2021-03: 630.177, 2021-06: 680.03, 2021-09: 687.839, 2021-12: 635.931, 2022-03: 672.11, 2022-06: 726.143, 2022-09: 741.236, 2022-12: 700.635, 2023-03: 747.733, 2023-06: 851.497, 2023-09: 858.938, 2023-12: 817.667, 2024-03: 880.506, 2024-06: 988.179, 2024-09: 999.886, 2024-12: 338.167, 2025-03: 1218.685, 2025-06: 1292.446, 2025-09: 1304.077,
Revenue Growth (3y CAGR): 25.35%
Revenue Trend (3y Corr): 36.0%
Last SUE: 1.50σ
Qual. Beats: 4
Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility 31.7%
Value at Risk 5%th 48.2%
Relative Tail Risk -7.53%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio -1.06
Alpha -36.93
Character TTM
Hurst Exponent 0.453
Beta 0.406
Beta Downside 0.233
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD 48.15%
Mean DD 16.52%
Median DD 15.63%

Description: ERIE Erie Indemnity October 30, 2025

Erie Indemnity Company acts as the managing attorney-in-fact for policyholders of the Erie Insurance Exchange, delivering core insurance functions such as policy issuance, renewal, underwriting, claims processing, and a suite of sales-related services-including agent compensation, advertising support, and IT infrastructure. The firm, founded in 1925 and headquartered in Erie, Pennsylvania, operates within the U.S. Property & Casualty (P&C) market.

Recent performance metrics show a combined ratio of approximately 92% for the most recent fiscal year, indicating underwriting profitability, while the company’s return on equity (ROE) has hovered around 12%, outpacing the broader P&C industry average of roughly 9%.

Key economic drivers for Erie include the prevailing low-interest-rate environment, which compresses investment income for insurers, and the rising frequency of severe weather events that elevate catastrophe loss exposure. The firm’s disciplined underwriting and strong regional market share in the Midwest and Northeast help mitigate these risks.

For a deeper, data-driven dive into Erie’s valuation and risk profile, consider exploring the analytics on ValueRay to see how its fundamentals compare to peers.

ERIE Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD 15,173m
Sub-Industry Property & Casualty Insurance
IPO / Inception 1995-10-02
Return 12m vs S&P 500 -38.8%
Analyst Rating 5.0 of 5

ERIE Dividends

Metric Value
Dividend Yield 1.92%
Yield on Cost 5y 2.53%
Yield CAGR 5y -3.41%
Payout Consistency 92.7%
Payout Ratio 44.0%

ERIE Growth Ratios

Metric Value
CAGR 3y 3.14%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio 0.07
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio 0.19
Current Volume 159.6k
Average Volume 136.6k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0

Net Income (648.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 249.2m TTM)
FCFTA 0.17 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.03pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)
NWC/Revenue 14.45% (prev 7.88%; Δ 6.58pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)
CFO/TA 0.21 (>3.0%) and CFO 708.6m > Net Income 648.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)
Net Debt (-568.6m) to EBITDA (791.7m) ratio: -0.72 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)
Current Ratio 1.67 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)
Outstanding Shares last Quarter (52.7m) change vs 12m ago 0.72% (target <= -2.0% for YES)
Gross Margin 25.76% (prev 17.19%; Δ 8.57pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)
Asset Turnover 134.2% (prev 128.7%; Δ 5.53pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)
Interest Coverage Ratio -0.34 (EBITDA TTM 791.7m / Interest Expense TTM -609.8m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 8.62

(A) 0.18 = (Total Current Assets 1.50b - Total Current Liabilities 897.6m) / Total Assets 3.32b
(B) 1.04 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 3.47b / Total Assets 3.32b
warn (B) unusual magnitude: 1.04 — check mapping/units
(C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 210.3m / Avg Total Assets 3.09b
(D) 3.41 = Book Value of Equity 3.46b / Total Liabilities 1.02b
Total Rating: 8.62 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 72.29

1. Piotroski 7.0pt = 2.0
2. FCF Yield 3.96% = 1.98
3. FCF Margin 13.89% = 3.47
4. Debt/Equity 0.00 = 2.50
5. Debt/Ebitda -0.72 = 2.50
6. ROIC - WACC (= 0.22)% = 0.27
7. RoE 30.32% = 2.50
8. Rev. Trend 36.02% = 2.70
9. EPS Trend 87.27% = 4.36

What is the price of ERIE shares?

As of November 20, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 285.06 with a total of 159,617 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.78%, over one month by -9.91%, over three months by -21.13% and over the past year by -30.51%.

Is ERIE a buy, sell or hold?

Erie Indemnity has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ERIE.
  • Strong Buy: 1
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ERIE price?

Issuer Target Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price 115 -59.7%
Analysts Target Price 115 -59.7%
ValueRay Target Price 255.7 -10.3%

ERIE Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025

Market Cap USD = 15.17b (15.17b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 23.1396
P/S = 3.7554
P/B = 6.5011
P/EG = 3.05
Beta = 0.386
Revenue TTM = 4.15b USD
EBIT TTM = 210.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 791.7m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 7.51m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.51m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -568.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 14.55b USD (15.17b + Debt 7.51m - CCE 628.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.34 (Ebit TTM 210.3m / Interest Expense TTM -609.8m)
FCF Yield = 3.96% (FCF TTM 577.0m / Enterprise Value 14.55b)
FCF Margin = 13.89% (FCF TTM 577.0m / Revenue TTM 4.15b)
Net Margin = 15.60% (Net Income TTM 648.0m / Revenue TTM 4.15b)
Gross Margin = 25.76% ((Revenue TTM 4.15b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.08b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.22% (prev 42.35%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.38 (Enterprise Value 14.55b / Total Assets 3.32b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 18.57% (Interest Expense 1.40m / Debt 7.51m)
Taxrate = 21.44% (49.9m / 232.8m)
NOPAT = 165.2m (EBIT 210.3m * (1 - 21.44%))
Current Ratio = 1.67 (Total Current Assets 1.50b / Total Current Liabilities 897.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 7.51m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.31b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.72 (Net Debt -568.6m / EBITDA 791.7m)
Debt / FCF = -0.99 (Net Debt -568.6m / FCF TTM 577.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 19.49% (Net Income 648.0m / Total Assets 3.32b)
RoE = 30.32% (Net Income TTM 648.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.14b)
RoCE = 8.66% (EBIT 210.3m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 3.32b - Current Liab 897.6m))
RoIC = 7.73% (NOPAT 165.2m / Invested Capital 2.14b)
WACC = 7.51% (E(15.17b)/V(15.18b) * Re(7.51%) + D(7.51m)/V(15.18b) * Rd(18.57%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.43% ; FCFE base≈533.2m ; Y1≈657.8m ; Y5≈1.12b
Fair Price DCF = 413.2 (DCF Value 19.09b / Shares Outstanding 46.2m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 87.27 | EPS CAGR: 45.41% | SUE: 0.47 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 36.02 | Revenue CAGR: 25.35% | SUE: 1.50 | # QB: 4

Additional Sources for ERIE Stock

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