(EXE) Expand Energy - Overview
Stock: Gas, Oil, Liquids, Shale
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.10% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 8.92% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 29.74% |
| Payout Consistency | 75.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 81.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.05% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.32 |
| Alpha | -1.67 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.511 |
| Beta Downside | 0.838 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 23.32% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.58 |
Description: EXE Expand Energy December 17, 2025
Expand Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:EXE) is an independent U.S. natural-gas producer that acquires, explores, and develops oil, natural gas, and natural-gas-liquid (NGL) assets. Its primary holdings are in the Marcellus and Utica shales across Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, plus the Haynesville and Bossier shales in Louisiana. The firm, originally founded as Chesapeake Energy in 1989 and headquartered in Oklahoma City, rebranded to Expand Energy in October 2024.
As of the latest publicly available 2023 results, Expand reported net production of roughly 200 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) of gas and liquids, with a cash-flow conversion rate of about 1.2 × operating cash flow to EBITDA. The company carries approximately $600 million of senior unsecured debt, giving it a leverage ratio near 2.5 × EBITDA-moderate for the sector but sensitive to gas price volatility. A key driver of its near-term performance is the prevailing Henry Hub price, which has hovered around $2.70 /MMBtu in Q3 2024, while U.S. natural-gas demand is expected to rise 3-4 % annually driven by power-generation needs and expanding LNG export capacity.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of EXE’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the ValueRay platform’s analytical tools useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 867.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.47 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.84% < 20% (prev 22.28%; Δ -27.12% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 4.00b > Net Income 867.0m |
| Net Debt (4.38b) to EBITDA (4.28b): 1.02 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.81 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (240.6m) vs 12m ago 79.80% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 47.78% > 18% (prev 0.38%; Δ 4740 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 52.91% > 50% (prev 30.10%; Δ 22.81% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.89 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 4.28b / Interest Expense TTM 240.0m) |
Altman Z'' 1.35
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 2.24b - Total Current Liabilities 2.77b) / Total Assets 27.61b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 4.42b / Total Assets 27.61b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 1.41b / Avg Total Assets 20.50b) |
| D: 0.47 (Book Value of Equity 4.42b / Total Liabilities 9.46b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.35 = BB |
Beneish M -2.10
| DSRI: 1.50 (Receivables 1.03b/255.0m, Revenue 10.85b/4.03b) |
| GMI: 0.80 (GM 47.78% / 38.18%) |
| AQI: 0.33 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 2.69 (Revenue 10.85b / 4.03b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI 867.0m - CFO 4.00b) / TA 27.61b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.10 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
What is the price of EXE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.81%, over one month by +4.69%, over three months by +0.26% and over the past year by +9.61%.
Is EXE a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 10
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the EXE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 130.9 | 18.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 130.9 | 18.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 125.1 | 13.4% |
EXE Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/E Forward = 10.3413
P/S = 2.3974
P/B = 1.4236
P/EG = 2.0688
Revenue TTM = 10.85b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.41b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.28b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.01b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 63.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.07b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.38b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 30.07b USD (25.84b + Debt 5.07b - CCE 848.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.89 (Ebit TTM 1.41b / Interest Expense TTM 240.0m)
EV/FCF = 20.45x (Enterprise Value 30.07b / FCF TTM 1.47b)
FCF Yield = 4.89% (FCF TTM 1.47b / Enterprise Value 30.07b)
FCF Margin = 13.55% (FCF TTM 1.47b / Revenue TTM 10.85b)
Net Margin = 7.99% (Net Income TTM 867.0m / Revenue TTM 10.85b)
Gross Margin = 47.78% ((Revenue TTM 10.85b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.66b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 79.50% (prev 38.31%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.09 (Enterprise Value 30.07b / Total Assets 27.61b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.12% (Interest Expense 57.0m / Debt 5.07b)
Taxrate = 20.26% (139.0m / 686.0m)
NOPAT = 1.13b (EBIT 1.41b * (1 - 20.26%))
Current Ratio = 0.81 (Total Current Assets 2.24b / Total Current Liabilities 2.77b)
Debt / Equity = 0.28 (Debt 5.07b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.15b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.02 (Net Debt 4.38b / EBITDA 4.28b)
Debt / FCF = 2.98 (Net Debt 4.38b / FCF TTM 1.47b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.71b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.23% (Net Income 867.0m / Total Assets 27.61b)
RoE = 4.90% (Net Income TTM 867.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 17.71b)
RoCE = 6.22% (EBIT 1.41b / Capital Employed (Equity 17.71b + L.T.Debt 5.01b))
RoIC = 4.90% (NOPAT 1.13b / Invested Capital 22.97b)
WACC = 6.67% (E(25.84b)/V(30.91b) * Re(7.80%) + D(5.07b)/V(30.91b) * Rd(1.12%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.80% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 30.39%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.37% ; FCFF base≈981.6m ; Y1≈795.7m ; Y5≈553.6m
Fair Price DCF = 38.81 (EV 13.63b - Net Debt 4.38b = Equity 9.24b / Shares 238.2m; r=6.67% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -22.72% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -64.14 | EPS CAGR: -29.15% | SUE: -1.14 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -13.88 | Revenue CAGR: -9.18% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.74 | Chg30d=+0.031 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=19
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.92 | Chg30d=-0.646 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+46.6% | Growth Revenue=+10.8%