EXE Stock Analysis: Expand Energy | NASDAQ
Oil & Gas E&P | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 21.703m USD | 12M Return: -12.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 341M
EPS Trend: -15.0%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 23.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Expand Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: EXE) is a U.S.-based independent natural gas producer engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The companys core operations are concentrated in four major shale plays: the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, the Marcellus and Utica Shales in Ohio and West Virginia, and the Haynesville and Bossier Shales in Louisiana and Texas. The Haynesville and Bossier shales in particular are known for their proximity to Gulf Coast LNG export infrastructure, which has grown in strategic importance amid rising global demand for natural gas. The firm was founded in 1989, is headquartered in Spring, Texas, and was renamed from Chesapeake Energy Corporation to Expand Energy Corporation in October 2024, reflecting its sharpened focus on natural gas and NGL production following the merger with Southwestern Energy.
- Henry Hub natural gas prices rise on LNG export demand
- AI data center power demand lifts gas consumption outlook
- Southwestern merger synergies expand free cash flow margins
| Net Income: 3.23b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.25 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 3.10% < 20% (prev -27.62%; Δ 30.72% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 5.87b > Net Income 3.23b |
| Net Debt (2.89b) to EBITDA (7.30b): 0.40 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.11 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (240.8m) vs 12m ago 2.70% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 53.38% > 18% (prev 24.94%; Δ 28.44% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 49.07% > 50% (prev 19.13%; Δ 29.94% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 18.40 > 6 (EBIT TTM 4.33b / Interest Expense TTM 235.0m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 4.39b - Total Current Liabilities 3.95b) / Total Assets 29.5b |
| B: 0.20 (Retained Earnings 5.79b / Total Assets 29.5b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 4.33b / Avg Total Assets 28.7b) |
| D: 1.96 (Book Value of Equity 19.5b / Total Liabilities 9.97b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.81 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.36 (Receivables 1.29b/1.35b, Revenue 14.1b/5.34b) |
| GMI: 0.47 (GM 24.94% / 53.38%) |
| AQI: 0.50 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 2.64 (Revenue 14.1b / 5.34b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 3.23b - CFO 5.87b) / TA 29.5b) |
| Beneish M = -3.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 90.10 with a total of 4,343,255 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.20%, over one month by -0.35%, over three months by -9.53% and over the past year by -12.58%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 87.20 (which is 3.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Expand Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.48. Therefore, it is recommended to buy EXE.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 10
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 129 | 43.2% |
P/E Trailing = 6.75
P/E Forward = 9.3809
P/S = 1.6751
P/B = 1.0965
P/EG = 20.847
Revenue TTM = 14.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.33b USD
EBITDA TTM = 7.30b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.13b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 926.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 51.0m
Net Debt = 2.89b USD (calculated: Debt 5.11b - CCE 2.22b)
Enterprise Value = 24.6b USD (21.7b + Debt 5.11b - CCE 2.22b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 18.40 (Ebit TTM 4.33b / Interest Expense TTM 235.0m)
EV/FCF = 8.59x (Enterprise Value 24.6b / FCF TTM 2.86b)
FCF Yield = 11.65% (FCF TTM 2.86b / Enterprise Value 24.6b)
FCF Margin = 20.32% (FCF TTM 2.86b / Revenue TTM 14.1b)
Net Margin = 22.89% (Net Income TTM 3.23b / Revenue TTM 14.1b)
Gross Margin = 53.38% ((Revenue TTM 14.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.57b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 53.24% (prev 46.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.83 (Enterprise Value 24.6b / Total Assets 29.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.60% (Interest Expense 235.0m / Debt 5.11b)
Taxrate = 21.10% (863.0m / 4.09b)
NOPAT = 3.41b (EBIT 4.33b * (1 - 21.10%))
Current Ratio = 1.11 (Total Current Assets 4.39b / Total Current Liabilities 3.95b)
Debt / Equity = 0.26 (Debt 5.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 19.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.40 (Net Debt 2.89b / EBITDA 7.30b)
Debt / FCF = 1.01 (Net Debt 2.89b / FCF TTM 2.86b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.23% (Net Income 3.23b / Total Assets 29.5b)
RoE = 17.39% (Net Income TTM 3.23b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.6b)
RoCE = 19.06% (EBIT 4.33b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.6b + L.T.Debt 4.13b))
RoIC = 13.23% (NOPAT 3.41b / Invested Capital 25.8b)
WACC = 6.35% (E(21.7b)/V(26.8b) * Re(6.99%) + D(5.11b)/V(26.8b) * Rd(4.60%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.99% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 65.93 | Cagr: 26.11%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.88b ; Y1≈2.16b ; Y5≈3.17b
[DCF] Fair Price = 187.5 (EV 47.7b - Net Debt 2.89b = Equity 44.9b / Shares 239.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -15.03 | EPS CAGR: -9.89% | SUE: 1.88 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 23.05 | Revenue CAGR: 11.91% | SUE: 1.00 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.15 | Chg30d=-0.44% | Revisions=-10% | Analysts=20
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.41 | Chg30d=-0.50% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=19
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.04 | Chg30d=-0.44% | Revisions=-4% | GrowthEPS=+48.2% | GrowthRev=+15.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.50 | Chg30d=-2.04% | Revisions=-30% | GrowthEPS=+5.1% | GrowthRev=+0.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=16, down=23)