EYE Stock Analysis: National Vision Holdings | NASDAQ
Specialty Retail | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.374m USD | 12M Return: -23.9% | US63845R1077 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 42.6M
EPS Trend: 69.6%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 75.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
National Vision Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: EYE) is a U.S. optical retailer operating a multi-brand portfolio that includes Americas Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, Vista Optical military, and DiscountContacts.com. The company sells prescription and non-prescription eyewear, contact lenses, and related accessories, and provides in-store eye exams along with HMO and optometric services.
The company pursues a value-oriented specialty retail model, serving a broad customer base that includes price-driven consumers, style leaders, managed care patients, wellness shoppers with vision benefits, and progressive lens wearers. Its discount-focused brand mix places it primarily in the value tier of the U.S. optical retail industry, a sector also populated by vertically integrated chains and direct-to-consumer competitors.
Headquartered in Duluth, Georgia, National Vision was founded in 1990, was originally known as National Vision, Inc. before adopting its current name in March 2014, and completed its IPO on October 26, 2017. It is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Other Specialty Retail sub-industry, and is considered a small-cap stock.
- Comparable sales growth at Americas Best stores fuels revenue
- Managed care contracts and reimbursements support optical retail margins
- Consumer discretionary spending weakness pressures low-income customer traffic
| Net Income: 50.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.41 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -7.68% < 20% (prev -10.64%; Δ 2.96% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 129.6m > Net Income 50.3m |
| Net Debt (1.11b) to EBITDA (175.1m): 6.35 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.59 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (80.6m) vs 12m ago 0.67% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 55.22% > 18% (prev 56.19%; Δ -0.97% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 102.9% > 50% (prev 95.79%; Δ 7.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.69 > 6 (EBIT TTM 82.8m / Interest Expense TTM 14.6m) |
| A: -0.08 (Total Current Assets 226.9m - Total Current Liabilities 383.0m) / Total Assets 1.98b |
| B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 299.3m / Total Assets 1.98b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 82.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.98b) |
| D: 0.83 (Book Value of Equity 897.0m / Total Liabilities 1.09b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.12 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.70 (Receivables 34.9m/46.0m, Revenue 2.03b/1.89b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 56.19% / 55.22%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.51 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 2.03b / 1.89b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 50.3m - CFO 129.6m) / TA 1.98b) |
| Beneish M = -3.20 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.69 with a total of 2,178,952 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.70%, over one month by -25.56%, over three months by +3.79% and over the past year by -23.93%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.20 (which is 8.9% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
National Vision Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.09. Therefore, it is recommended to buy EYE.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 28.7 | 72.1% |
P/E Trailing = 28.9667
P/E Forward = 22.3214
P/S = 0.6758
P/B = 1.5752
Revenue TTM = 2.03b USD
EBIT TTM = 82.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 175.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 223.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 110.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.15b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 450.3m
Net Debt = 1.11b USD (calculated: Debt 1.15b - CCE 36.0m)
Enterprise Value = 2.49b USD (1.37b + Debt 1.15b - CCE 36.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.69 (Ebit TTM 82.8m / Interest Expense TTM 14.6m)
EV/FCF = 50.64x (Enterprise Value 2.49b / FCF TTM 49.1m)
FCF Yield = 1.97% (FCF TTM 49.1m / Enterprise Value 2.49b)
FCF Margin = 2.41% (FCF TTM 49.1m / Revenue TTM 2.03b)
Net Margin = 2.47% (Net Income TTM 50.3m / Revenue TTM 2.03b)
Gross Margin = 55.22% ((Revenue TTM 2.03b - Cost of Revenue TTM 910.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.23% (prev 55.40%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.25 (Enterprise Value 2.49b / Total Assets 1.98b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.27% (Interest Expense 14.6m / Debt 1.15b)
Taxrate = 26.30% (17.9m / 68.2m)
NOPAT = 61.0m (EBIT 82.8m * (1 - 26.30%))
Current Ratio = 0.59 (Total Current Assets 226.9m / Total Current Liabilities 383.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.28 (Debt 1.15b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 897.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.35 (Net Debt 1.11b / EBITDA 175.1m)
Debt / FCF = 22.64 (Net Debt 1.11b / FCF TTM 49.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 880.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.54% (Net Income 50.3m / Total Assets 1.98b)
RoE = 5.71% (Net Income TTM 50.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 880.8m)
RoCE = 7.50% (EBIT 82.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 880.8m + L.T.Debt 223.2m))
RoIC = 3.64% (NOPAT 61.0m / Invested Capital 1.68b)
WACC = 5.59% (E(1.37b)/V(2.52b) * Re(9.48%) + D(1.15b)/V(2.52b) * Rd(1.27%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 9.48% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 87.09 | Cagr: 0.99%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.37% ; FCFF base≈52.1m ; Y1≈46.4m ; Y5≈38.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 617.2m - Net Debt 1.11b = -494.1m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 69.57 | EPS CAGR: 13.70% | SUE: 2.85 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 75.52 | Revenue CAGR: 3.01% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=-1.52% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.01 | Chg30d=+3.91% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+25.7% | GrowthRev=+3.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.96 | Chg30d=+2.89% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+38.4% | GrowthRev=+5.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -42% (up=2, down=7)