(EYE) National Vision Holdings - Overview
Stock: Eyeglasses, Contact Lenses, Eye Exams, Optical Accessories
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.7% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.04 |
| Alpha | 121.21 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.235 |
| Beta Downside | 1.442 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 76.71% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.17 |
Description: EYE National Vision Holdings January 14, 2026
National Vision Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:EYE) is a U.S.-based optical retailer that operates through two primary segments: Owned & Host stores (including America’s Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, and Walmart Vision Center) and Legacy locations (such as Fred Meyer and Vista Optical Military). The company sells eyeglasses, contact lenses, and related accessories while also providing eye examinations and optometric services.
In FY 2023 the firm generated approximately **$1.5 billion** in revenue, with a **net income of $45 million** and an **adjusted EPS of $0.38**, reflecting modest profitability amid a competitive retail environment. Same-store sales grew **~2 % year-over-year**, driven largely by higher average transaction values and incremental gains in vision-insurance reimbursements.
Key macro-drivers for the sector include an **aging U.S. population** (the 65+ cohort is projected to reach 22 % of the population by 2035), expanding **vision-benefit coverage** through employer health plans, and **consumer discretionary spending trends** that influence discretionary eyewear purchases. Conversely, supply-chain volatility in lens and frame components can pressure margins.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you might explore ValueRay’s detailed valuation models for EYE.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -2.31m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.91 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -10.24% < 20% (prev -9.64%; Δ -0.60% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 163.4m > Net Income -2.31m |
| Net Debt (637.5m) to EBITDA (125.6m): 5.08 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.53 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (81.2m) vs 12m ago 3.23% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 57.53% > 18% (prev 0.56%; Δ 5697 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 96.58% > 50% (prev 93.68%; Δ 2.91% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.52 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 125.6m / Interest Expense TTM 17.5m) |
Altman Z'' 0.09
| A: -0.10 (Total Current Assets 220.2m - Total Current Liabilities 417.0m) / Total Assets 1.96b |
| B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 252.4m / Total Assets 1.96b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 26.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.99b) |
| D: 0.23 (Book Value of Equity 253.3m / Total Liabilities 1.10b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.09 = B |
Beneish M -3.12
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 46.1m/46.8m, Revenue 1.92b/1.89b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 57.53% / 56.35%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.52 / AQ_t-1 0.50) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 1.92b / 1.89b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI -2.31m - CFO 163.4m) / TA 1.96b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of EYE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.60%, over one month by +4.71%, over three months by +3.68% and over the past year by +147.29%.
Is EYE a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the EYE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 33.2 | 21.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 33.2 | 21.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 27.7 | 1.3% |
EYE Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 1.0877
P/B = 2.4335
Revenue TTM = 1.92b USD
EBIT TTM = 26.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 125.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 236.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 119.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 693.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 637.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.73b USD (2.09b + Debt 693.6m - CCE 56.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.52 (Ebit TTM 26.6m / Interest Expense TTM 17.5m)
EV/FCF = 32.88x (Enterprise Value 2.73b / FCF TTM 83.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.04% (FCF TTM 83.0m / Enterprise Value 2.73b)
FCF Margin = 4.32% (FCF TTM 83.0m / Revenue TTM 1.92b)
Net Margin = -0.12% (Net Income TTM -2.31m / Revenue TTM 1.92b)
Gross Margin = 57.53% ((Revenue TTM 1.92b - Cost of Revenue TTM 815.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 53.75% (prev 58.81%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.39 (Enterprise Value 2.73b / Total Assets 1.96b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.59% (Interest Expense 4.12m / Debt 693.6m)
Taxrate = 38.57% (2.12m / 5.49m)
NOPAT = 16.4m (EBIT 26.6m * (1 - 38.57%))
Current Ratio = 0.53 (Total Current Assets 220.2m / Total Current Liabilities 417.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.81 (Debt 693.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 858.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.08 (Net Debt 637.5m / EBITDA 125.6m)
Debt / FCF = 7.69 (Net Debt 637.5m / FCF TTM 83.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 840.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.12% (Net Income -2.31m / Total Assets 1.96b)
RoE = -0.27% (Net Income TTM -2.31m / Total Stockholder Equity 840.5m)
RoCE = 2.47% (EBIT 26.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 840.5m + L.T.Debt 236.5m))
RoIC = 1.43% (NOPAT 16.4m / Invested Capital 1.14b)
WACC = 7.95% (E(2.09b)/V(2.78b) * Re(10.47%) + D(693.6m)/V(2.78b) * Rd(0.59%) * (1-Tc(0.39)))
Discount Rate = 10.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.85%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.35% ; FCFF base≈60.5m ; Y1≈56.9m ; Y5≈53.3m
Fair Price DCF = 4.03 (EV 957.5m - Net Debt 637.5m = Equity 319.9m / Shares 79.3m; r=7.95% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -7.62% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -26.12 | EPS CAGR: -32.94% | SUE: -1.76 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -26.09 | Revenue CAGR: 0.53% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.42 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=9
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.93 | Chg30d=+0.008 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+32.3% | Growth Revenue=+5.1%