EYE Stock Analysis: National Vision Holdings | NASDAQ

Specialty Retail | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.578m USD | 12M Return: -20.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Eyeglasses, Contact Lenses, Optical Accessories, Eye Exams
Total Rating 32
Safety 71
Buy Signal -0.49
Specialty Retail
Industry Rotation: +4.3
Market Cap: 1.58B
Avg Turnover: 39.0M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility50.5%
VaR 5th Pctl8.02%
VaR vs Median-3.33%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.29
Rel. Str. IBD4.8
Rel. Str. Peer Group23.3
Character TTM
Beta1.288
Beta Downside1.354
Hurst Exponent0.430
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD61.01%
CAGR/Max DD-0.10
CAGR/Mean DD-0.21
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of EYE over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.48, "2021-09": 0.38, "2021-12": 0.13, "2022-03": 0.33, "2022-06": 0.21, "2022-09": 0.15, "2022-12": -0.08, "2023-03": 0.31, "2023-06": 0.17, "2023-09": 0.15, "2023-12": -0.02, "2024-03": 0.3, "2024-06": 0.15, "2024-09": 0.12, "2024-12": -0.04, "2025-03": 0.34, "2025-06": 0.18, "2025-09": 0.07, "2025-12": 0.15, "2026-03": 0.45,
EPS CAGR: 9.74%
EPS Trend: 59.9%
Last SUE: 0.75
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of EYE over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 549.489, 2021-09: 518.005, 2021-12: 477.851, 2022-03: 527.711, 2022-06: 509.555, 2022-09: 499.207, 2022-12: 468.931, 2023-03: 520.797, 2023-06: 431.786, 2023-09: 438.82, 2023-12: 506.403, 2024-03: 482.794, 2024-06: 451.733, 2024-09: 451.515, 2024-12: 437.278, 2025-03: 510.324, 2025-06: 486.423, 2025-09: 487.33, 2025-12: 503.411, 2026-03: 543.88,
Rev. CAGR: 1.73%
Rev. Trend: 52.5%
Last SUE: -0.04
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 8.7 years of data

Jan +0.8% 0
Feb +0.4% 14
Mar -7.4% 29
Apr -7.3% 19
May -3.8% 15
Jun +5.1% 17
Jul +1.4% 35
Aug -7.6% 10
Sep -3.1% 6
Oct +0.2% 26
Nov +7.2% 29
Dec -2.3% 18

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: EYE National Vision Holdings

National Vision Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: EYE) is a U.S. optical retailer operating a multi-brand portfolio that includes Americas Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, Vista Optical military, and DiscountContacts.com. The company sells prescription and non-prescription eyewear, contact lenses, and related accessories, and provides in-store eye exams along with HMO and optometric services.

The company pursues a value-oriented specialty retail model, serving a broad customer base that includes price-driven consumers, style leaders, managed care patients, wellness shoppers with vision benefits, and progressive lens wearers. Its discount-focused brand mix places it primarily in the value tier of the U.S. optical retail industry, a sector also populated by vertically integrated chains and direct-to-consumer competitors.

Headquartered in Duluth, Georgia, National Vision was founded in 1990, was originally known as National Vision, Inc. before adopting its current name in March 2014, and completed its IPO on October 26, 2017. It is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Other Specialty Retail sub-industry, and is considered a small-cap stock.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Comparable sales growth at Americas Best stores fuels revenue
  • Managed care contracts and reimbursements support optical retail margins
  • Consumer discretionary spending weakness pressures low-income customer traffic
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.5
Net Income: 46.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.93 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -7.81% < 20% (prev -11.57%; Δ 3.76% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 175.8m > Net Income 46.6m
Net Debt (1.07b) to EBITDA (169.6m): 6.34 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.62 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (81.5m) vs 12m ago 2.82% < -2%
Gross Margin: 54.23% > 18% (prev 56.96%; Δ -2.73% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 100.3% > 50% (prev 92.07%; Δ 8.21% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.05 > 6 (EBIT TTM 77.9m / Interest Expense TTM 15.4m)
Altman Z'' 1.05
A: -0.08 (Total Current Assets 260.6m - Total Current Liabilities 418.5m) / Total Assets 2.02b
B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 286.9m / Total Assets 2.02b)
C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 77.9m / Avg Total Assets 2.02b)
D: 0.80 (Book Value of Equity 898.0m / Total Liabilities 1.12b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.05 = BB
Beneish M -3.11
DSRI: 0.76 (Receivables 44.0m/53.2m, Revenue 2.02b/1.85b)
GMI: 1.05 (GM 56.96% / 54.23%)
AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.51 / AQ_t-1 0.50)
SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 2.02b / 1.85b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 46.6m - CFO 175.8m) / TA 2.02b)
Beneish M = -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of EYE shares?

As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 19.55 with a total of 1,425,588 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.06%, over one month by +11.21%, over three months by -23.84% and over the past year by -20.33%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 18.40 (which is 5.9% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is EYE a buy, sell or hold?

National Vision Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.09. Therefore, it is recommended to buy EYE.

  • StrongBuy: 6
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 5
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the EYE price?
Analysts Target Price 29.3 49.7%
National Vision Holdings (EYE) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 09 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.58b (1.58b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 34.5614
P/E Forward = 23.5294
P/S = 0.7809
P/B = 1.5586
Revenue TTM = 2.02b USD
EBIT TTM = 77.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 169.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 225.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 107.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.14b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 450.3m
Net Debt = 1.07b USD (calculated: Debt 1.14b - CCE 67.9m)
Enterprise Value = 2.65b USD (1.58b + Debt 1.14b - CCE 67.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.05 (Ebit TTM 77.9m / Interest Expense TTM 15.4m)
EV/FCF = 25.13x (Enterprise Value 2.65b / FCF TTM 105.6m)
FCF Yield = 3.98% (FCF TTM 105.6m / Enterprise Value 2.65b)
FCF Margin = 5.22% (FCF TTM 105.6m / Revenue TTM 2.02b)
Net Margin = 2.31% (Net Income TTM 46.6m / Revenue TTM 2.02b)
Gross Margin = 54.23% ((Revenue TTM 2.02b - Cost of Revenue TTM 925.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 55.40% (prev 53.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.31 (Enterprise Value 2.65b / Total Assets 2.02b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.35% (Interest Expense 15.4m / Debt 1.14b)
Taxrate = 25.46% (15.9m / 62.5m)
NOPAT = 58.1m (EBIT 77.9m * (1 - 25.46%))
Current Ratio = 0.62 (Total Current Assets 260.6m / Total Current Liabilities 418.5m)
Debt / Equity = 1.27 (Debt 1.14b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 898.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.34 (Net Debt 1.07b / EBITDA 169.6m)
Debt / FCF = 10.18 (Net Debt 1.07b / FCF TTM 105.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 869.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.31% (Net Income 46.6m / Total Assets 2.02b)
RoE = 5.36% (Net Income TTM 46.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 869.2m)
RoCE = 7.12% (EBIT 77.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 869.2m + L.T.Debt 225.2m))
RoIC = 3.54% (NOPAT 58.1m / Invested Capital 1.64b)
WACC = 6.52% (E(1.58b)/V(2.72b) * Re(10.51%) + D(1.14b)/V(2.72b) * Rd(1.35%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 10.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 82.22 | Cagr: 1.81%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈81.8m ; Y1≈93.8m ; Y5≈138.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 12.52 (EV 2.08b - Net Debt 1.07b = Equity 1.00b / Shares 80.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 59.92 | EPS CAGR: 9.74% | SUE: 0.75 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 52.45 | Revenue CAGR: 1.73% | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=-11.54% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=12
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=-6.01% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=-2.20% | Revisions=-27% | GrowthEPS=+20.9% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.18 | Chg30d=-5.59% | Revisions=-77% | GrowthEPS=+22.3% | GrowthRev=+5.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -63% (up=7, down=36)