(FIZZ) National Beverage - Ratings and Ratios
Sparkling, Juice, Energy, Soft-Drink
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 26.1% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 39.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.00% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.92 |
| Alpha | -27.02 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.17 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.460 |
| Beta | 0.088 |
| Beta Downside | -0.329 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 40.08% |
| Mean DD | 14.29% |
| Median DD | 13.19% |
Description: FIZZ National Beverage January 10, 2026
National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:FIZZ) manufactures and markets a diversified portfolio of non-alcoholic drinks-including LaCroix sparkling water, Clear Fruit non-carbonated water, Rip It energy shots, Everfresh juices, and Shasta/Faygo sodas-across the United States and Canada. The products reach consumers through traditional retail, convenience-store, and food-service channels, and the company operates under the umbrella of IBS Partners, Ltd.
Key operational metrics (FY 2023): revenue of roughly **$2.0 billion**, a **gross margin of ~38 %**, and a **net income of $115 million**, reflecting a modest 5 % YoY revenue growth driven primarily by a 12 % increase in LaCroix volume. The sparkling-water segment now accounts for about **45 % of total sales**, positioning the brand as a top-10 player in the U.S. premium seltzer market. Headwinds include rising commodity costs (sugar, aluminum) and a competitive landscape where major soft-drink conglomerates are expanding low-calorie portfolios.
Broader sector dynamics that affect FIZZ include the continued consumer shift toward healthier, low-calorie beverages (projected CAGR ≈ 4 % through 2028) and the acceleration of direct-to-consumer e-commerce channels, which have grown **~15 % YoY** for non-alcoholic drinks and could amplify margin upside for brands with strong digital distribution.
For a deeper quantitative dive into FIZZ’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you may find the **ValueRay** platform’s analyst toolkit useful as a next step in your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (186.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 72.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.21 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -9.16pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 31.41% (prev 16.56%; Δ 14.84pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.26 (>3.0%) and CFO 191.4m > Net Income 186.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-203.1m) to EBITDA (258.2m) ratio: -0.79 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 4.28 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (93.7m) change vs 12m ago -0.00% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 37.25% (prev 37.04%; Δ 0.21pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 183.6% (prev 213.1%; Δ -29.49pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -29.91 (EBITDA TTM 258.2m / Interest Expense TTM -7.92m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 10.82
| (A) 0.50 = (Total Current Assets 491.4m - Total Current Liabilities 114.7m) / Total Assets 749.0m |
| (B) 0.69 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 519.9m / Total Assets 749.0m |
| (C) 0.36 = EBIT TTM 236.9m / Avg Total Assets 653.2m |
| (D) 2.69 = Book Value of Equity 531.8m / Total Liabilities 197.7m |
| Total Rating: 10.82 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 80.96
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.30% |
| 3. FCF Margin 13.07% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.12 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.79 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 31.98)% |
| 7. RoE 39.28% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 29.60% |
| 9. EPS Trend 76.60% |
What is the price of FIZZ shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.73%, over one month by +3.94%, over three months by -8.02% and over the past year by -21.89%.
Is FIZZ a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the FIZZ price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35 | 4.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35 | 4.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 32.5 | -3% |
FIZZ Fundamental Data Overview January 21, 2026
P/E Forward = 16.0256
P/S = 2.6368
P/B = 5.7391
P/EG = 4.0188
Revenue TTM = 1.20b USD
EBIT TTM = 236.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 258.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 66.2m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 15.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 66.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -203.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.96b USD (3.16b + Debt 66.2m - CCE 269.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -29.91 (Ebit TTM 236.9m / Interest Expense TTM -7.92m)
EV/FCF = 18.87x (Enterprise Value 2.96b / FCF TTM 156.8m)
FCF Yield = 5.30% (FCF TTM 156.8m / Enterprise Value 2.96b)
FCF Margin = 13.07% (FCF TTM 156.8m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Net Margin = 15.55% (Net Income TTM 186.5m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Gross Margin = 37.25% ((Revenue TTM 1.20b - Cost of Revenue TTM 752.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.87% (prev 37.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.95 (Enterprise Value 2.96b / Total Assets 749.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.10% (Interest Expense 726.0k / Debt 66.2m)
Taxrate = 23.62% (14.3m / 60.7m)
NOPAT = 180.9m (EBIT 236.9m * (1 - 23.62%))
Current Ratio = 4.28 (Total Current Assets 491.4m / Total Current Liabilities 114.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.12 (Debt 66.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 551.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.79 (Net Debt -203.1m / EBITDA 258.2m)
Debt / FCF = -1.30 (Net Debt -203.1m / FCF TTM 156.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 474.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 28.56% (Net Income 186.5m / Total Assets 749.0m)
RoE = 39.28% (Net Income TTM 186.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 474.9m)
RoCE = 43.78% (EBIT 236.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 474.9m + L.T.Debt 66.2m))
RoIC = 38.11% (NOPAT 180.9m / Invested Capital 474.8m)
WACC = 6.13% (E(3.16b)/V(3.23b) * Re(6.24%) + D(66.2m)/V(3.23b) * Rd(1.10%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 6.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.04%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.28% ; FCFF base≈161.2m ; Y1≈176.3m ; Y5≈223.1m
Fair Price DCF = 67.54 (EV 6.12b - Net Debt -203.1m = Equity 6.32b / Shares 93.6m; r=6.13% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 10.68% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 76.60 | EPS CAGR: 11.72% | SUE: -0.62 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 29.60 | Revenue CAGR: 2.91% | SUE: -0.43 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-04-30): EPS=2.03 | Chg30d=-0.015 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+1.8% | Growth Revenue=-0.2%
EPS next Year (2027-04-30): EPS=2.06 | Chg30d=-0.047 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+1.7% | Growth Revenue=+0.9%
Additional Sources for FIZZ Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle