(FIZZ) National Beverage - Overview
Stock: Sparkling, Juice, Energy, Soft-Drink
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 26.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.35% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.51 |
| Alpha | -17.74 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.097 |
| Beta Downside | -0.296 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 40.08% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.14 |
Description: FIZZ National Beverage January 10, 2026
National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:FIZZ) manufactures and markets a diversified portfolio of non-alcoholic drinks-including LaCroix sparkling water, Clear Fruit non-carbonated water, Rip It energy shots, Everfresh juices, and Shasta/Faygo sodas-across the United States and Canada. The products reach consumers through traditional retail, convenience-store, and food-service channels, and the company operates under the umbrella of IBS Partners, Ltd.
Key operational metrics (FY 2023): revenue of roughly **$2.0 billion**, a **gross margin of ~38 %**, and a **net income of $115 million**, reflecting a modest 5 % YoY revenue growth driven primarily by a 12 % increase in LaCroix volume. The sparkling-water segment now accounts for about **45 % of total sales**, positioning the brand as a top-10 player in the U.S. premium seltzer market. Headwinds include rising commodity costs (sugar, aluminum) and a competitive landscape where major soft-drink conglomerates are expanding low-calorie portfolios.
Broader sector dynamics that affect FIZZ include the continued consumer shift toward healthier, low-calorie beverages (projected CAGR ≈ 4 % through 2028) and the acceleration of direct-to-consumer e-commerce channels, which have grown **~15 % YoY** for non-alcoholic drinks and could amplify margin upside for brands with strong digital distribution.
For a deeper quantitative dive into FIZZ’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you may find the **ValueRay** platform’s analyst toolkit useful as a next step in your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 186.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.21 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -9.16 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 31.41% < 20% (prev 16.56%; Δ 14.84% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.26 > 3% & CFO 191.4m > Net Income 186.5m |
| Net Debt (-203.1m) to EBITDA (258.2m): -0.79 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.28 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (93.7m) vs 12m ago -0.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.25% > 18% (prev 0.37%; Δ 3688 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 183.6% > 50% (prev 213.1%; Δ -29.49% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -29.91 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 258.2m / Interest Expense TTM -7.92m) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: 0.50 (Total Current Assets 491.4m - Total Current Liabilities 114.7m) / Total Assets 749.0m |
| B: 0.69 (Retained Earnings 519.9m / Total Assets 749.0m) |
| C: 0.36 (EBIT TTM 236.9m / Avg Total Assets 653.2m) |
| D: 2.69 (Book Value of Equity 531.8m / Total Liabilities 197.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 10.82 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.31
| DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 93.2m/99.6m, Revenue 1.20b/1.19b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 37.25% / 37.04%) |
| AQI: 0.63 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 1.20b / 1.19b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 186.5m - CFO 191.4m) / TA 749.0m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.31 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of FIZZ shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.58%, over one month by +9.90%, over three months by +7.98% and over the past year by -12.17%.
Is FIZZ a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the FIZZ price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35 | -0.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35 | -0.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 34.6 | -2% |
FIZZ Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 16.1812
P/S = 2.6953
P/B = 5.7901
P/EG = 4.0188
Revenue TTM = 1.20b USD
EBIT TTM = 236.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 258.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 66.2m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 15.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 66.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -203.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.03b USD (3.23b + Debt 66.2m - CCE 269.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -29.91 (Ebit TTM 236.9m / Interest Expense TTM -7.92m)
EV/FCF = 19.32x (Enterprise Value 3.03b / FCF TTM 156.8m)
FCF Yield = 5.18% (FCF TTM 156.8m / Enterprise Value 3.03b)
FCF Margin = 13.07% (FCF TTM 156.8m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Net Margin = 15.55% (Net Income TTM 186.5m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Gross Margin = 37.25% ((Revenue TTM 1.20b - Cost of Revenue TTM 752.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.87% (prev 37.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.05 (Enterprise Value 3.03b / Total Assets 749.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.10% (Interest Expense 726.0k / Debt 66.2m)
Taxrate = 23.62% (14.3m / 60.7m)
NOPAT = 180.9m (EBIT 236.9m * (1 - 23.62%))
Current Ratio = 4.28 (Total Current Assets 491.4m / Total Current Liabilities 114.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.12 (Debt 66.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 551.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.79 (Net Debt -203.1m / EBITDA 258.2m)
Debt / FCF = -1.30 (Net Debt -203.1m / FCF TTM 156.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 474.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 28.56% (Net Income 186.5m / Total Assets 749.0m)
RoE = 39.28% (Net Income TTM 186.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 474.9m)
RoCE = 43.78% (EBIT 236.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 474.9m + L.T.Debt 66.2m))
RoIC = 38.11% (NOPAT 180.9m / Invested Capital 474.8m)
WACC = 6.16% (E(3.23b)/V(3.30b) * Re(6.27%) + D(66.2m)/V(3.30b) * Rd(1.10%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 6.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.04%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.16% ; FCFF base≈161.2m ; Y1≈176.3m ; Y5≈223.1m
Fair Price DCF = 66.90 (EV 6.06b - Net Debt -203.1m = Equity 6.26b / Shares 93.6m; r=6.16% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 10.68% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -2.95 | EPS CAGR: -44.74% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 29.60 | Revenue CAGR: 2.91% | SUE: -0.43 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-04-30): EPS=2.03 | Chg30d=-0.015 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+1.8% | Growth Revenue=-0.2%
EPS next Year (2027-04-30): EPS=2.06 | Chg30d=-0.047 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+1.7% | Growth Revenue=+0.9%