(FIZZ) National Beverage - Ratings and Ratios
Sparkling Water, Juice, Energy Drink, Soda
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 27.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 41.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.34% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.39 |
| Alpha | -33.02 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.27 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.433 |
| Beta | 0.071 |
| Beta Downside | -0.352 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.55% |
| Mean DD | 13.65% |
| Median DD | 13.15% |
Description: FIZZ National Beverage November 07, 2025
National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:FIZZ) manufactures and markets a diversified portfolio of non-alcoholic beverages-including LaCroix sparkling water, Clear Fruit non-carbonated water, Rip It energy drinks, Everfresh juices, and Shasta/Faygo carbonated soft drinks-across the United States and Canada. The products are sold through traditional retail, convenience, and food-service channels, as well as smaller “up-and-down-the-street” accounts. The company, founded in 1985 and headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, operates as a subsidiary of IBS Partners, Ltd.
Key operating metrics (FY 2024, company-reported) show revenue of roughly **$2.5 billion**, a **gross margin of 38%**, and a **net profit margin near 5%**, reflecting the relatively low-cost base of its private-label and legacy brands. The business is moderately sensitive to **commodity price volatility** (e.g., sugar, aluminum) and **inflation-driven consumer price elasticity**, but benefits from the **steady growth of the premium sparkling-water segment**, which has averaged **6-8% annual volume expansion** across the U.S. market (industry base rate). Distribution efficiency remains a strategic lever: the company’s “take-home” channel accounts for ~55% of sales, while “food-service” contributes ~15%, indicating exposure to both consumer-direct and out-of-home spending cycles.
For a data-driven deep-dive into FIZZ’s valuation sensitivities, peer benchmarks, and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a transparent, model-based toolkit that can help you quantify the upside and downside risks more rigorously.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (185.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 72.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.23 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -6.60pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 27.38% (prev 12.18%; Δ 15.21pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.28 (>3.0%) and CFO 208.3m > Net Income 185.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-179.9m) to EBITDA (254.6m) ratio: -0.71 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.24 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (93.7m) change vs 12m ago 0.03% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 37.17% (prev 36.64%; Δ 0.54pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 190.8% (prev 229.0%; Δ -38.24pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -2.89 (EBITDA TTM 254.6m / Interest Expense TTM -62.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 9.04
| (A) 0.45 = (Total Current Assets 476.1m - Total Current Liabilities 146.9m) / Total Assets 737.8m |
| (B) 0.64 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 473.5m / Total Assets 737.8m |
| (C) 0.29 = EBIT TTM 181.1m / Avg Total Assets 630.2m |
| (D) 1.99 = Book Value of Equity 465.2m / Total Liabilities 233.6m |
| Total Rating: 9.04 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 79.12
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 6.02% |
| 3. FCF Margin 14.36% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.14 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.71 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 26.23)% |
| 7. RoE 43.50% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 38.05% |
| 9. EPS Trend 3.58% |
What is the price of FIZZ shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.95%, over one month by -1.01%, over three months by -18.84% and over the past year by -29.49%.
Is FIZZ a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the FIZZ price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 39 | 13.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 39 | 13.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 33.4 | -3% |
FIZZ Fundamental Data Overview November 19, 2025
P/E Trailing = 16.4444
P/E Forward = 16.2338
P/S = 2.5352
P/B = 6.1543
P/EG = 4.0188
Beta = 0.481
Revenue TTM = 1.20b USD
EBIT TTM = 181.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 254.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 69.9m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 15.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 69.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -179.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.87b USD (3.05b + Debt 69.9m - CCE 249.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.89 (Ebit TTM 181.1m / Interest Expense TTM -62.6m)
FCF Yield = 6.02% (FCF TTM 172.6m / Enterprise Value 2.87b)
FCF Margin = 14.36% (FCF TTM 172.6m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Net Margin = 15.45% (Net Income TTM 185.8m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Gross Margin = 37.17% ((Revenue TTM 1.20b - Cost of Revenue TTM 755.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.96% (prev 36.10%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.89 (Enterprise Value 2.87b / Total Assets 737.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.04% (Interest Expense 726.0k / Debt 69.9m)
Taxrate = 23.63% (17.3m / 73.0m)
NOPAT = 138.3m (EBIT 181.1m * (1 - 23.63%))
Current Ratio = 3.24 (Total Current Assets 476.1m / Total Current Liabilities 146.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.14 (Debt 69.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 504.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.71 (Net Debt -179.9m / EBITDA 254.6m)
Debt / FCF = -1.04 (Net Debt -179.9m / FCF TTM 172.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 427.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 25.18% (Net Income 185.8m / Total Assets 737.8m)
RoE = 43.50% (Net Income TTM 185.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 427.1m)
RoCE = 36.43% (EBIT 181.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 427.1m + L.T.Debt 69.9m))
RoIC = 32.39% (NOPAT 138.3m / Invested Capital 427.0m)
WACC = 6.16% (E(3.05b)/V(3.12b) * Re(6.28%) + D(69.9m)/V(3.12b) * Rd(1.04%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 6.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.54% ; FCFE base≈166.3m ; Y1≈181.8m ; Y5≈230.7m
Fair Price DCF = 42.90 (DCF Value 4.02b / Shares Outstanding 93.6m; 5y FCF grow 10.68% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 3.58 | EPS CAGR: -44.10% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 38.05 | Revenue CAGR: 4.21% | SUE: -1.68 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for FIZZ Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle