(FOSL) Fossil - Overview
Stock: Watches, Jewelry, Handbags, Leather Goods, Sunglasses
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 90.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -19.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.07 |
| Alpha | 61.24 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.731 |
| Beta Downside | 1.917 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 83.66% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.10 |
Description: FOSL Fossil January 18, 2026
Fossil Group Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL) designs, develops, markets, and distributes a broad portfolio of fashion accessories-including traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, leather goods, belts, and sunglasses-through its own brands (e.g., Fossil, Skagen, Relic) and licensed labels (e.g., Armani Exchange, Michael Kors, Kate Spade). The company reaches consumers worldwide via company-owned stores, department and specialty retailers, mass-market outlets, e-commerce platforms, licensed franchises, and travel-centric concessions.
Key recent metrics: FY 2024 reported revenue of approximately $1.6 billion, a 5 % YoY decline driven largely by weaker wholesale demand; gross margin improved to 44 % as the mix shifted toward higher-margin accessories; and e-commerce now accounts for roughly 23 % of total sales, up from 18 % in FY 2023, reflecting accelerated digital adoption.
Sector drivers affecting Fossil include the overall health of the consumer discretionary segment-particularly U.S. household disposable income trends-and the rapid convergence of traditional watchmaking with wearable technology, where the global smartwatch market is projected to grow at a 12 % CAGR through 2028. Additionally, currency fluctuations (the euro and yen) and supply-chain bottlenecks in Asian manufacturing can materially impact cost structure and inventory levels.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of Fossil’s valuation dynamics, you might find ValueRay’s analytical tools worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: -67.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -13.76 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.78% < 20% (prev 21.11%; Δ -5.32% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.06 > 3% & CFO -42.6m > Net Income -67.3m |
| Net Debt (256.1m) to EBITDA (20.0m): 12.84 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.56 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (52.4m) vs 12m ago -1.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 55.74% > 18% (prev 0.50%; Δ 5524 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 140.9% > 50% (prev 150.7%; Δ -9.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.11 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 20.0m / Interest Expense TTM 17.9m) |
Altman Z'' 0.89
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 471.1m - Total Current Liabilities 302.8m) / Total Assets 701.0m |
| B: -0.21 (Retained Earnings -144.0m / Total Assets 701.0m) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 37.7m / Avg Total Assets 756.7m) |
| D: -0.34 (Book Value of Equity -204.1m / Total Liabilities 604.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.89 = B |
Beneish M -2.90
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 162.5m/173.7m, Revenue 1.07b/1.22b) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 55.74% / 49.97%) |
| AQI: 1.49 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 0.87 (Revenue 1.07b / 1.22b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI -67.3m - CFO -42.6m) / TA 701.0m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.90 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of FOSL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.94%, over one month by -10.97%, over three months by +70.50% and over the past year by +95.98%.
Is FOSL a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the FOSL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5 | 46.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5 | 46.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.2 | 23.5% |
FOSL Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/B = 1.8628
P/EG = -4.34
Revenue TTM = 1.07b USD
EBIT TTM = 37.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 20.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 169.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 62.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 339.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 256.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 369.1m USD (112.9m + Debt 339.7m - CCE 83.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.11 (Ebit TTM 37.7m / Interest Expense TTM 17.9m)
EV/FCF = -8.02x (Enterprise Value 369.1m / FCF TTM -46.0m)
FCF Yield = -12.48% (FCF TTM -46.0m / Enterprise Value 369.1m)
FCF Margin = -4.32% (FCF TTM -46.0m / Revenue TTM 1.07b)
Net Margin = -6.31% (Net Income TTM -67.3m / Revenue TTM 1.07b)
Gross Margin = 55.74% ((Revenue TTM 1.07b - Cost of Revenue TTM 471.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.01% (prev 57.50%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.53 (Enterprise Value 369.1m / Total Assets 701.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.23% (Interest Expense 4.17m / Debt 339.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 29.8m (EBIT 37.7m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.56 (Total Current Assets 471.1m / Total Current Liabilities 302.8m)
Debt / Equity = 3.02 (Debt 339.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 112.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 12.84 (Net Debt 256.1m / EBITDA 20.0m)
Debt / FCF = -5.56 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 256.1m / FCF TTM -46.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 138.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.89% (Net Income -67.3m / Total Assets 701.0m)
RoE = -48.75% (Net Income TTM -67.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 138.0m)
RoCE = 12.27% (EBIT 37.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 138.0m + L.T.Debt 169.1m))
RoIC = 9.52% (NOPAT 29.8m / Invested Capital 312.9m)
WACC = 3.80% (E(112.9m)/V(452.6m) * Re(12.30%) + D(339.7m)/V(452.6m) * Rd(1.23%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.13%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -46.0m)
EPS Correlation: 3.64 | EPS CAGR: 13.63% | SUE: -0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -79.89 | Revenue CAGR: -19.31% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.20 | Chg30d=+0.030 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+94.8% | Growth Revenue=-18.3%