FRME Stock Analysis: First Merchants | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.738m USD | 12M Return: 10.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Commercial Banking, Consumer Lending, Wealth Management, Treasury Management
Total Rating 28
Safety 30
Buy Signal -0.08
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +3.8
Market Cap: 2.74B
Avg Turnover: 16.7M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility28.6%
VaR 5th Pctl4.70%
VaR vs Median-0.30%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.35
Rel. Str. IBD48.5
Rel. Str. Peer Group18.3
Character TTM
Beta0.745
Beta Downside0.892
Hurst Exponent0.540
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD23.94%
CAGR/Max DD0.81
CAGR/Mean DD2.03
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of FRME over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 1.03, "2021-09": 0.98, "2021-12": 0.89, "2022-03": 0.91, "2022-06": 1.01, "2022-09": 1.12, "2022-12": 1.19, "2023-03": 1.07, "2023-06": 1.02, "2023-09": 0.94, "2023-12": 0.87, "2024-03": 0.85, "2024-06": 0.68, "2024-09": 0.95, "2024-12": 1, "2025-03": 0.94, "2025-06": 0.98, "2025-09": 0.99, "2025-12": 0.98, "2026-03": 1.03,
EPS CAGR: -1.84%
EPS Trend: -19.4%
Last SUE: 0.96
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of FRME over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 144.159, 2021-09: 142.049, 2021-12: 135.84, 2022-03: 135.437, 2022-06: 169.423, 2022-09: 192.955, 2022-12: 215.132, 2023-03: 231.395, 2023-06: 247.684, 2023-09: 256.975, 2023-12: 263.434, 2024-03: 262.538, 2024-06: 267.715, 2024-09: 265.949, 2024-12: 257.401, 2025-03: 252.566, 2025-06: 261.028, 2025-09: 267.572, 2025-12: 269.775, 2026-03: 253.298,
Rev. CAGR: 4.35%
Rev. Trend: 72.0%
Last SUE: 0.49
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +1.2% 26
Feb -0.5% 13
Mar -4.9% 30
Apr -2.4% 18
May -2.0% 25
Jun +1.6% 17
Jul +0.5% 11
Aug -2.4% 23
Sep -1.8% 22
Oct +0.2% 8
Nov +0.8% 9
Dec -0.3% 5

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: FRME First Merchants

First Merchants Corporation (NASDAQ: FRME) is a U.S. financial holding company headquartered in Muncie, Indiana, that operates primarily through its subsidiary, First Merchants Bank. Founded in 1893, the company provides commercial and consumer banking services-including deposit accounts, debit and credit cards, mortgage, agricultural, and treasury management lending-across Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan counties. It also offers wealth management, brokerage, investment advisory, private banking, and fiduciary estate services. Classified as a Mid Cap regional bank, First Merchants combines traditional community-based relationship banking with electronic and mobile delivery channels to serve retail customers and small-to-mid-sized businesses across the Midwest.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin compresses on Fed rate cuts
  • Commercial loan growth slows across Indiana and Ohio markets
  • Deposit costs rise as competition for funding intensifies
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: 198.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.13 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -605.2% < 20% (prev -1.27k%; Δ 659.9% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 280.5m > Net Income 198.8m
Net Debt (174.5m) to EBITDA (253.6m): 0.69 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.20 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (61.0m) vs 12m ago 4.75% < -2%
Gross Margin: 60.47% > 18% (prev 57.05%; Δ 3.41% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 5.32% > 50% (prev 5.66%; Δ -0.34% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.57 > 6 (EBIT TTM 223.0m / Interest Expense TTM 393.8m)
Altman Z'' -1.53
A: -0.30 (Total Current Assets 1.57b - Total Current Liabilities 7.93b) / Total Assets 21.1b
B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 1.42b / Total Assets 21.1b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 223.0m / Avg Total Assets 19.8b)
D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 2.67b / Total Liabilities 18.4b)
Altman-Z'' = -1.53 = D
Beneish M -2.99
DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 97.0m/88.4m, Revenue 1.05b/1.04b)
GMI: 0.94 (GM 57.05% / 60.47%)
AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.92 / AQ_t-1 0.91)
SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 1.05b / 1.04b)
TATA: -0.00 (NI 198.8m - CFO 280.5m) / TA 21.1b)
Beneish M = -2.99 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of FRME shares?

As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 42.84 with a total of 257,493 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.34%, over one month by +7.05%, over three months by +8.10% and over the past year by +10.38%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 40.50 (which is 5.5% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).

Is FRME a buy, sell or hold?

First Merchants has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy FRME.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 2
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the FRME price?
Analysts Target Price 48 12%
First Merchants (FRME) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 06 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 2.74b (2.74b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 12.8142
P/E Forward = 11.9904
P/S = 4.2923
P/B = 1.0341
P/EG = 1.395
Revenue TTM = 1.05b USD
EBIT TTM = 223.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 253.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.39b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 259.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.64b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 174.5m USD (calculated: Debt 1.64b - CCE 1.47b)
Enterprise Value = 2.91b USD (2.74b + Debt 1.64b - CCE 1.47b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.57 (Ebit TTM 223.0m / Interest Expense TTM 393.8m)
EV/FCF = 10.38x (Enterprise Value 2.91b / FCF TTM 280.5m)
FCF Yield = 9.63% (FCF TTM 280.5m / Enterprise Value 2.91b)
FCF Margin = 26.68% (FCF TTM 280.5m / Revenue TTM 1.05b)
Net Margin = 18.90% (Net Income TTM 198.8m / Revenue TTM 1.05b)
Gross Margin = 60.47% ((Revenue TTM 1.05b - Cost of Revenue TTM 415.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.67% (prev 60.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.14 (Enterprise Value 2.91b / Total Assets 21.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 23.94% (Interest Expense 393.8m / Debt 1.64b)
Taxrate = 10.84% (24.2m / 223.0m)
NOPAT = 198.8m (EBIT 223.0m * (1 - 10.84%))
Current Ratio = 0.20 (Total Current Assets 1.57b / Total Current Liabilities 7.93b)
Debt / Equity = 0.62 (Debt 1.64b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.67b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.69 (Net Debt 174.5m / EBITDA 253.6m)
Debt / FCF = 0.62 (Net Debt 174.5m / FCF TTM 280.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.01% (Net Income 198.8m / Total Assets 21.1b)
RoE = 8.03% (Net Income TTM 198.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.47b)
RoCE = 5.78% (EBIT 223.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.47b + L.T.Debt 1.39b))
RoIC = 0.95% (NOPAT 198.8m / Invested Capital 21.0b)
WACC = 13.38% (E(2.74b)/V(4.38b) * Re(8.60%) + D(1.64b)/V(4.38b) * Rd(23.94%) * (1-Tc(0.11)))
Discount Rate = 8.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -60.0 | Cagr: 1.08%
[DCF] Terminal Value 60.68% ; FCFF base≈275.9m ; Y1≈286.9m ; Y5≈325.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 40.05 (EV 2.70b - Net Debt 174.5m = Equity 2.52b / Shares 63.0m; r=13.38% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 4.26% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -19.40 | EPS CAGR: -1.84% | SUE: 0.96 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 72.01 | Revenue CAGR: 4.35% | SUE: 0.49 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.03 | Chg30d=+0.65% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.08 | Chg30d=+0.78% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.26 | Chg30d=+0.63% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+9.6% | GrowthRev=+17.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.61 | Chg30d=+1.14% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+8.1% | GrowthRev=+5.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -28% (up=5, down=10)