FRPT Stock Analysis: Freshpet | NASDAQ

Packaged Foods | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.771m USD | 12M Return: -25.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Dog Food, Cat Food, Pet Treats, Pet Meals
Total Rating 38
Safety 86
Buy Signal -0.62
Packaged Foods
Industry Rotation: +5.9
Market Cap: 2.77B
Avg Turnover: 80.4M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility59.5%
VaR 5th Pctl9.06%
VaR vs Median-5.91%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.37
Rel. Str. IBD10.6
Rel. Str. Peer Group17.4
Character TTM
Beta0.781
Beta Downside1.081
Hurst Exponent0.716
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD70.85%
CAGR/Max DD-0.09
CAGR/Mean DD-0.22
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of FRPT over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -0.1, "2021-09": 0.01, "2021-12": -0.13, "2022-03": -0.4, "2022-06": -0.26, "2022-09": -0.31, "2022-12": -0.06, "2023-03": -0.46, "2023-06": -0.27, "2023-09": -0.02, "2023-12": 0.39, "2024-03": 0.37, "2024-06": -0.03, "2024-09": 0.24, "2024-12": 0.364, "2025-03": -0.26, "2025-06": 0.34, "2025-09": 1.83, "2025-12": 0.6171, "2026-03": 0.17,
Last SUE: 0.14
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of FRPT over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 108.616, 2021-09: 107.59, 2021-12: 115.869, 2022-03: 132.171, 2022-06: 146.007, 2022-09: 151.333, 2022-12: 165.833, 2023-03: 167.522, 2023-06: 183.331, 2023-09: 200.621, 2023-12: 215.42, 2024-03: 223.849, 2024-06: 235.253, 2024-09: 253.367, 2024-12: 262.708, 2025-03: 263.249, 2025-06: 264.689, 2025-09: 288.848, 2025-12: 285.229, 2026-03: 297.644,
Rev. CAGR: 21.26%
Rev. Trend: 98.3%
Last SUE: 1.56
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Earnings Expected To Drop (P/E To P/E Forward)
Strong Share Dilution
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +1.4% 26
Feb +4.6% 27
Mar -4.8% 26
Apr +0.3% 0
May -1.1% 13
Jun -1.8% 2
Jul +1.9% 9
Aug -5.2% 12
Sep -1.7% 17
Oct -3.3% 22
Nov +13.3% 31
Dec -3.1% 21

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: FRPT Freshpet

Freshpet, Inc. (NASDAQ: FRPT) manufactures, distributes, and markets natural fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats across the United States, Canada, and Europe. Its product portfolio includes dog food, cat food, and dog treats sold primarily under the Freshpet brand, with additional fresh treats offered under the Dognation and Dog Joy names. The company distributes its products through a distinctive network of company-owned branded refrigerators (Freshpet Fridges) placed in retail locations, as well as through grocery, mass, club, pet specialty, international, and digital channels. Freshpet was incorporated in 2004, is headquartered in Bedminster, New Jersey, and went public in November 2014. The company operates within the packaged foods and meats sub-industry of the consumer staples sector, and its refrigerated, fresh-ingredient pet food model differentiates it from the largely shelf-stable, kibble-dominated mainstream pet food market.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Freshpet Fridge placements accelerate household penetration gains
  • Manufacturing capacity scale-up supports gross margin expansion path
  • Premium pet food competition intensifies from Blue Buffalo and private label
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.5
Net Income: 200.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 11.46 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 39.96% < 20% (prev 31.82%; Δ 8.14% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 196.1m > Net Income 200.3m
Net Debt (208.8m) to EBITDA (253.3m): 0.82 < 3
Current Ratio: 6.18 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (56.1m) vs 12m ago 15.03% < -2%
Gross Margin: 38.90% > 18% (prev 40.57%; Δ -1.67% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 66.88% > 50% (prev 65.08%; Δ 1.81% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.46 > 6 (EBIT TTM 163.2m / Interest Expense TTM 14.2m)
Altman Z'' 4.39
A: 0.25 (Total Current Assets 541.8m - Total Current Liabilities 87.6m) / Total Assets 1.84b
B: -0.05 (Retained Earnings -94.2m / Total Assets 1.84b)
C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 163.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.70b)
D: 2.19 (Book Value of Equity 1.26b / Total Liabilities 577.1m)
Altman-Z'' = 4.39 = AA
Beneish M -2.90
DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 65.4m/62.7m, Revenue 1.14b/1.01b)
GMI: 1.04 (GM 40.57% / 38.90%)
AQI: 1.10 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.04)
SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 1.14b / 1.01b)
TATA: 0.00 (NI 200.3m - CFO 196.1m) / TA 1.84b)
Beneish M = -2.90 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of FRPT shares?

As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 53.62 with a total of 818,630 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.90%, over one month by +1.82%, over three months by -21.44% and over the past year by -25.41%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 49.80 (which is 7.1% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).

Is FRPT a buy, sell or hold?

Freshpet has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.37. Therefore, it is recommended to buy FRPT.

  • StrongBuy: 12
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 5
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the FRPT price?
Analysts Target Price 81.6 52.2%
Freshpet (FRPT) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 06 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 2.77b (2.77b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 14.7979
P/E Forward = 34.4828
P/S = 2.4381
P/B = 2.1954
P/EG = 3.8019
Revenue TTM = 1.14b USD
EBIT TTM = 163.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 253.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 397.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.68m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 590.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 96.2m
Net Debt = 208.8m USD (calculated: Debt 590.2m - CCE 381.4m)
Enterprise Value = 2.98b USD (2.77b + Debt 590.2m - CCE 381.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.46 (Ebit TTM 163.2m / Interest Expense TTM 14.2m)
EV/FCF = 15.28x (Enterprise Value 2.98b / FCF TTM 195.0m)
FCF Yield = 6.54% (FCF TTM 195.0m / Enterprise Value 2.98b)
FCF Margin = 17.16% (FCF TTM 195.0m / Revenue TTM 1.14b)
Net Margin = 17.63% (Net Income TTM 200.3m / Revenue TTM 1.14b)
Gross Margin = 38.90% ((Revenue TTM 1.14b - Cost of Revenue TTM 694.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.54% (prev 36.75%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.62 (Enterprise Value 2.98b / Total Assets 1.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.41% (Interest Expense 14.2m / Debt 590.2m)
Taxrate = 26.10% (17.1m / 65.6m)
NOPAT = 120.6m (EBIT 163.2m * (1 - 26.10%))
Current Ratio = 6.18 (Total Current Assets 541.8m / Total Current Liabilities 87.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.47 (Debt 590.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.26b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.82 (Net Debt 208.8m / EBITDA 253.3m)
Debt / FCF = 1.07 (Net Debt 208.8m / FCF TTM 195.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.79% (Net Income 200.3m / Total Assets 1.84b)
RoE = 16.98% (Net Income TTM 200.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.18b)
RoCE = 10.34% (EBIT 163.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.18b + L.T.Debt 397.9m))
RoIC = 7.10% (NOPAT 120.6m / Invested Capital 1.70b)
WACC = 7.51% (E(2.77b)/V(3.36b) * Re(8.73%) + D(590.2m)/V(3.36b) * Rd(2.41%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 8.73% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 64.44 | Cagr: 5.32%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈195.0m ; Y1≈195.8m ; Y5≈207.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 61.39 (EV 3.23b - Net Debt 208.8m = Equity 3.02b / Shares 49.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.14 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.29 | Revenue CAGR: 21.26% | SUE: 1.56 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=+9.13% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=-1.82% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.68 | Chg30d=+6.76% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=-40.5% | GrowthRev=+9.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.80 | Chg30d=-5.29% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+7.1% | GrowthRev=+9.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -31% (up=3, down=7)