(FRPT) Freshpet - Overview
Stock: Dog Food, Cat Food, Dog Treats
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 49.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -26.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.16 |
| Alpha | -70.01 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.096 |
| Beta Downside | 1.389 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 70.26% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.05 |
Description: FRPT Freshpet January 11, 2026
Freshpet, Inc. (NASDAQ:FRPT) manufactures and sells refrigerated, natural pet meals and treats for dogs and cats across the U.S., Canada, and Europe, primarily under the Freshpet brand with additional treat lines (Dognation, Dog Joy). Distribution relies on a proprietary network of branded “Freshpet Fridges” placed in grocery and mass-market retailers, complemented by traditional shelf space and e-commerce channels. The company, founded in 2004 and headquartered in Bedminster, New Jersey, is classified under the Packaged Foods & Meats sub-industry.
Key industry drivers that shape Freshpet’s outlook include: (1) the “humanization” trend in pet ownership, which has lifted average spend per pet to roughly $600 – $800 annually (source: American Pet Products Association, 2023), giving premium fresh foods a higher price-elasticity ceiling; (2) the rapid growth of refrigerated shelf space in grocery stores, where Freshpet’s fridge network now covers over 15,000 locations, a metric that correlates strongly with same-store sales acceleration; and (3) macro-level demand for natural, minimally processed foods, which has been expanding at a 5-6% CAGR in the broader packaged foods sector, providing a favorable tailwind for fresh pet nutrition. Freshpet’s 2023 revenue grew ≈ 30% YoY to $1.2 bn, but the company’s operating margin remains thin (~ 2%) due to higher logistics and refrigeration costs, an uncertainty that could tighten if input prices rise faster than sales growth.
For a deeper quantitative view, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst platform to assess Freshpet’s valuation sensitivities and peer comparisons.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 123.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.74 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 32.13% < 20% (prev 35.79%; Δ -3.66% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 155.8m > Net Income 123.4m |
| Net Debt (220.2m) to EBITDA (147.7m): 1.49 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.52 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (55.9m) vs 12m ago 11.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.02% > 18% (prev 0.38%; Δ 3963 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 65.88% > 50% (prev 60.58%; Δ 5.30% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.22 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 147.7m / Interest Expense TTM 14.3m) |
Altman Z'' 0.89
| A: 0.20 (Total Current Assets 423.6m - Total Current Liabilities 76.7m) / Total Assets 1.75b |
| B: -0.10 (Retained Earnings -176.5m / Total Assets 1.75b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 60.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.64b) |
| D: -0.31 (Book Value of Equity -176.9m / Total Liabilities 567.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.89 = B |
Beneish M -2.56
| DSRI: 0.85 (Receivables 64.3m/65.0m, Revenue 1.08b/927.9m) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 40.02% / 38.19%) |
| AQI: 1.90 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 1.08b / 927.9m) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 123.4m - CFO 155.8m) / TA 1.75b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.56 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of FRPT shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.29%, over one month by +12.22%, over three months by +24.82% and over the past year by -52.93%.
Is FRPT a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 12
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the FRPT price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 74.3 | 6.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 74.3 | 6.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 66.9 | -4.3% |
FRPT Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/E Forward = 50.7614
P/S = 3.16
P/B = 2.8944
P/EG = 1.4252
Revenue TTM = 1.08b USD
EBIT TTM = 60.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 147.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 396.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.42m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 494.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 220.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.63b USD (3.41b + Debt 494.8m - CCE 274.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.22 (Ebit TTM 60.2m / Interest Expense TTM 14.3m)
EV/FCF = 84.25x (Enterprise Value 3.63b / FCF TTM 43.1m)
FCF Yield = 1.19% (FCF TTM 43.1m / Enterprise Value 3.63b)
FCF Margin = 3.99% (FCF TTM 43.1m / Revenue TTM 1.08b)
Net Margin = 11.44% (Net Income TTM 123.4m / Revenue TTM 1.08b)
Gross Margin = 40.02% ((Revenue TTM 1.08b - Cost of Revenue TTM 647.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.53% (prev 40.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.08 (Enterprise Value 3.63b / Total Assets 1.75b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.72% (Interest Expense 3.55m / Debt 494.8m)
Taxrate = 1.26% (598.0k / 47.5m)
NOPAT = 59.5m (EBIT 60.2m * (1 - 1.26%))
Current Ratio = 5.52 (Total Current Assets 423.6m / Total Current Liabilities 76.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.42 (Debt 494.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.18b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.49 (Net Debt 220.2m / EBITDA 147.7m)
Debt / FCF = 5.11 (Net Debt 220.2m / FCF TTM 43.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.09b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.53% (Net Income 123.4m / Total Assets 1.75b)
RoE = 11.34% (Net Income TTM 123.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.09b)
RoCE = 4.06% (EBIT 60.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.09b + L.T.Debt 396.8m))
RoIC = 4.01% (NOPAT 59.5m / Invested Capital 1.48b)
WACC = 8.78% (E(3.41b)/V(3.91b) * Re(9.95%) + D(494.8m)/V(3.91b) * Rd(0.72%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 9.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.83%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 66.76% ; FCFF base≈43.1m ; Y1≈28.3m ; Y5≈12.9m
Fair Price DCF = 0.04 (EV 222.2m - Net Debt 220.2m = Equity 2.00m / Shares 48.8m; r=8.78% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 71.80 | EPS CAGR: 40.69% | SUE: -0.77 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.25 | Revenue CAGR: 27.58% | SUE: 1.09 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.43 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-47.8% | Growth Revenue=+9.4%