(FULC) Fulcrum Therapeutics - Ratings and Ratios
Pociredir, Losmapimod, Fetal Hemoglobin Inducers, Cardiomyopathy Candidates
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 93.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 126% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.64% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.59 |
| Alpha | 203.57 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.42 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.431 |
| Beta | 1.286 |
| Beta Downside | 1.665 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 83.85% |
| Mean DD | 55.11% |
| Median DD | 56.65% |
Description: FULC Fulcrum Therapeutics October 25, 2025
Fulcrum Therapeutics (NASDAQ: FULC) is a clinical-stage biopharma focused on small-molecule programs for genetically defined diseases with high unmet need in the U.S. Its lead candidate, pociredir-a fetal-hemoglobin inducer-is in a Phase 1b trial for sickle-cell disease (SCD) and β-thalassemia. The company is also pursuing preclinical targets for inherited aplastic anemias (e.g., Diamond-Blackfan anemia, Shwachman-Diamond syndrome, Fanconi anemia), additional fetal-hemoglobin inducers, fibrotic disorders, and cardiomyopathies, supported by collaborations with MyoKardia, CAMP4, and a licensing deal with Sanofi for losmapimod in facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy.
Key quantitative signals (Q2 2024): cash and short-term investments of roughly $115 million, giving a runway of ~18 months at current burn (~$6–7 million per quarter); market capitalization around $620 million; and a 2023 R&D spend of $55 million, indicating a sizable commitment to pipeline expansion. The SCD market is projected to exceed $2 billion by 2028, and recent FDA approvals of gene-editing therapies are intensifying competition, making small-molecule fetal-hemoglobin inducers a potentially differentiated, lower-cost alternative.
For a deeper, data-driven look at Fulcrum’s valuation dynamics and how its pipeline risk-adjusted returns compare to peers, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income (-71.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 4.80m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.28 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -24.99pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 242.8% (prev 312.8%; Δ -70.03pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.28 (>3.0%) and CFO -60.0m > Net Income -71.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 17.70 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (62.6m) change vs 12m ago 0.30% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 99.16% (prev 77.44%; Δ 21.73pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 32.40% (prev 28.99%; Δ 3.41pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -26.88 (EBITDA TTM -72.5m / Interest Expense TTM -2.75m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -41.31
| (A) 0.90 = (Total Current Assets 205.9m - Total Current Liabilities 11.6m) / Total Assets 214.9m |
| (B) -2.67 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -573.9m / Total Assets 214.9m |
| warn (B) unusual magnitude: -2.67 — check mapping/units |
| (C) -0.30 = EBIT TTM -73.9m / Avg Total Assets 246.9m |
| (D) -34.78 = Book Value of Equity -573.6m / Total Liabilities 16.5m |
| Total Rating: -41.31 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 22.92
| 1. Piotroski 1.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -20.36% |
| 3. FCF Margin -75.52% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.04 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.55 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -37.50)% |
| 7. RoE -32.17% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -34.19% |
| 9. EPS Trend 44.34% |
What is the price of FULC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +46.07%, over one month by +55.50%, over three months by +85.71% and over the past year by +222.58%.
Is FULC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the FULC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.6 | 12% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.6 | 12% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 13.9 | 6.6% |
FULC Fundamental Data Overview December 05, 2025
P/S = 5.1213
P/B = 2.4417
Beta = 3.185
Revenue TTM = 80.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -73.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -72.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 7.01m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.35m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.01m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -40.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 296.7m USD (490.3m + Debt 7.01m - CCE 200.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -26.88 (Ebit TTM -73.9m / Interest Expense TTM -2.75m)
FCF Yield = -20.36% (FCF TTM -60.4m / Enterprise Value 296.7m)
FCF Margin = -75.52% (FCF TTM -60.4m / Revenue TTM 80.0m)
Net Margin = -88.89% (Net Income TTM -71.1m / Revenue TTM 80.0m)
Gross Margin = 99.16% ((Revenue TTM 80.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 669.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.38 (Enterprise Value 296.7m / Total Assets 214.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 45.09% (Interest Expense 3.16m / Debt 7.01m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -58.4m (EBIT -73.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 17.70 (Total Current Assets 205.9m / Total Current Liabilities 11.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.04 (Debt 7.01m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 198.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.55 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -40.1m / EBITDA -72.5m)
Debt / FCF = 0.66 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -40.1m / FCF TTM -60.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 221.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -33.10% (Net Income -71.1m / Total Assets 214.9m)
RoE = -32.17% (Net Income TTM -71.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 221.1m)
RoCE = -32.38% (EBIT -73.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 221.1m + L.T.Debt 7.01m))
RoIC = -26.40% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -58.4m / Invested Capital 221.1m)
WACC = 11.10% (E(490.3m)/V(497.3m) * Re(10.75%) + D(7.01m)/V(497.3m) * Rd(45.09%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.58%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -60.4m)
EPS Correlation: 44.34 | EPS CAGR: 19.08% | SUE: -0.06 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -34.19 | Revenue CAGR: -67.92% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.30 | Chg30d=-0.007 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.23 | Chg30d=-0.027 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=-3.4% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%
Additional Sources for FULC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle