FWRD Stock Analysis: Forward Air | NASDAQ
Integrated Freight & Logistics | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 425m USD | 12M Return: -51.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 15.0M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 82.9%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) is an asset-light freight and logistics company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, operating across the United States, Mexico, Europe, Asia, and Canada. The company was incorporated in 1981 and has been publicly traded since its 1993 IPO on NASDAQ.
The business is organized into three reporting segments: Expedited Freight, which provides less-than-truckload (LTL), local pick-up and delivery, expedited truckload brokerage, dedicated fleet, and temperature-controlled logistics; Omni Logistics, which offers global air and ocean freight consolidation, customs brokerage, warehousing, and supply chain solutions; and Intermodal, which handles container drayage and container freight station warehouse services.
Forward Air serves a diverse customer base that includes freight forwarders, third-party logistics (3PL) providers, passenger and cargo airlines, steamship lines, and retailers. As classified under the GICS framework, the company sits within the Industrials sector under the Air Freight & Logistics sub-industry.
FWRD is a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $452 million. Its asset-light model relies on contracted carrier capacity rather than ownership of transportation equipment, a structure common in the 3PL industry that enables flexibility and lower fixed-asset exposure.
- Omni Logistics revenue growth offsets Expedited Freight weakness
- Omni acquisition debt burden pressures margins and cash flow
- Expedited LTL pricing recovery hinges on freight cycle inflection
| Net Income: -91.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.85 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.08% < 20% (prev 2.16%; Δ 1.91% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 62.5m > Net Income -91.5m |
| Net Debt (2.47b) to EBITDA (101.4m): 24.35 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.23 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (31.0m) vs 12m ago 2.58% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 10.01% > 18% (prev 13.94%; Δ -3.93% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 89.60% > 50% (prev 90.79%; Δ -1.19% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.57 > 6 (EBIT TTM -52.4m / Interest Expense TTM 91.6m) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 542.4m - Total Current Liabilities 441.9m) / Total Assets 2.70b |
| B: -0.18 (Retained Earnings -482.9m / Total Assets 2.70b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -52.4m / Avg Total Assets 2.75b) |
| D: 0.03 (Book Value of Equity 81.0m / Total Liabilities 2.57b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.43 = B |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 333.8m/336.4m, Revenue 2.46b/2.55b) |
| GMI: 1.39 (GM 13.94% / 10.01%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.54 / AQ_t-1 0.56) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 2.46b / 2.55b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI -91.5m - CFO 62.5m) / TA 2.70b) |
| Beneish M = -2.70 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.38 with a total of 412,236 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.52%, over one month by +0.38%, over three months by -30.71% and over the past year by -51.57%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.10 (which is 9.6% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Forward Air has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold FWRD.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 18.3 | 37% |
P/E Forward = 19.9203
P/S = 0.1726
P/B = 5.507
P/EG = 0.6549
Revenue TTM = 2.46b USD
EBIT TTM = -52.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 101.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.69b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 128.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.61b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 460.1m
Net Debt = 2.47b USD (calculated: Debt 2.61b - CCE 141.0m)
Enterprise Value = 2.89b USD (425.4m + Debt 2.61b - CCE 141.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.57 (Ebit TTM -52.4m / Interest Expense TTM 91.6m)
EV/FCF = 75.48x (Enterprise Value 2.89b / FCF TTM 38.4m)
FCF Yield = 1.32% (FCF TTM 38.4m / Enterprise Value 2.89b)
FCF Margin = 1.56% (FCF TTM 38.4m / Revenue TTM 2.46b)
Net Margin = -3.71% (Net Income TTM -91.5m / Revenue TTM 2.46b)
Gross Margin = 10.01% ((Revenue TTM 2.46b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.22b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 3.51% (prev 15.19%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.07 (Enterprise Value 2.89b / Total Assets 2.70b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.51% (Interest Expense 91.6m / Debt 2.61b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -41.4m (EBIT -52.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.23 (Total Current Assets 542.4m / Total Current Liabilities 441.9m)
Debt / Equity = 32.23 (Debt 2.61b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 81.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 24.35 (Net Debt 2.47b / EBITDA 101.4m)
Debt / FCF = 64.39 (Net Debt 2.47b / FCF TTM 38.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 121.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.33% (Net Income -91.5m / Total Assets 2.70b)
RoE = -75.30% (Net Income TTM -91.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 121.5m)
RoCE = -2.89% (EBIT -52.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 121.5m + L.T.Debt 1.69b))
RoIC = -1.83% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -41.4m / Invested Capital 2.26b)
WACC = 4.11% (E(425.4m)/V(3.04b) * Re(12.30%) + D(2.61b)/V(3.04b) * Rd(3.51%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 96.61 | Cagr: 8.70%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈38.4m ; Y1≈38.5m ; Y5≈40.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 634.5m - Net Debt 2.47b = -1.84b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 82.94 | Revenue CAGR: 29.93% | SUE: -1.69 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.15 | Chg30d=-12.32% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.10 | Chg30d=-73.33% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.83 | Chg30d=-22.40% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=-32.3% | GrowthRev=+0.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.25 | Chg30d=-185.37% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+69.4% | GrowthRev=+2.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -29% (up=6, down=12)